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2018 QB Film Review: Results of watching 3 games each of top prospects


Bocephuz

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3 hours ago, ALF said:

Thank you Bocephuz  for such thorough research on such a critical draft.                                                

 

...have to agree ALF....a critical and pivotal draft for this club....some key points IMO......

 

1. At Pegula's expense, McBeane assembled a pretty formidable staff of major brass in the NFL personnel world. Despite the draft NEVER being an exact science, the pressure is on to produce.

2. All of the conjecture says this is one of the better QB classes in recent memory. Sure none have played a single NFL down, but the prognosis seems very positive, especially in a year when McBeane/McD are "QB hunting".

3. When is the last time Bflo has accumulated this type of draft capital in recent memory? If in fact this QB class is one of the better ones in recent memory, is it fate that Bflo has excellent draft capital and the need? Have the stars aligned?

 

....stay tuned............

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24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fair, and actually now that I look more carefully at the enlarged chart, that can't be the answer either as Bocephuz has "touch" as its own category as well.

 

Since we have your attention...can you educate me about Mayfield's footwork?  It looks non-standard to me, but he seems to move about neatly and effectively.  What am I seeing there?  Rosen OTOH seems to have very nice footwork. 

 

Been waiting for the next installments of QB Film Room, assume you're tied up with the main job.

 

There is a lot going on at the end of the football year for me. During the season I'm on the advance scouting side so I am week to week 

 

I do personnel stuff at the end of the season And do player reports but I have other stuff to finish. I will get Darnold and Rosen up ASAP, next few days

 

As for Rosen, he has beautiful picture perfect technique. His upper body is crisp and fluid and he has the feet of a ballerina. Perfect balance , setup and release almost every time

 

Baker does not have bad footwork by any means... though not as good as Rosen... he just has a bit wider of a base which makes it look somewhat off 

 

it doesn't seem to hinder him that much as he  is pretty fluid moving in the pocket. He can work on his base though 

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5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Mayfield please 

 

...put your "please" aside for a moment.....do you SERIOUSLY see McBeane expending draft capital to move up to where the perceived range of where Mayfield may go?....OR.......OR ....is Mayfield the 2017 version of Brady Quinn stuck in the Green Room long after his high forecasts and falls to McBeane at 21/22 (sorry, had to ask....LOL)?............maybe the new "Aaron Rodgers slip"......

8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

There is a lot going on at the end of the football year for me. During the season I'm on the advance scouting side so I am week to week 

 

I do personnel stuff at the end of the season And do player reports but I have other stuff to finish. I will get Darnold and Rosen up ASAP, next few days

 

As for Rosen, he has beautiful picture perfect technique. His upper body is crisp and fluid and he has the feet of a ballerina. Perfect balance , setup and release almost every time

 

Baker does not have bad footwork by any means... though not as good as Rosen... he just has a bit wider of a base which makes it look somewhat off 

 

it doesn't seem to hinder him that much as he  is pretty fluid moving in the pocket. He can work on his base though 

 

 

...you know your stuff bud.....why is much being made about Rosen coming from a wealthy family and being a tennis player?........is his commitment to playing the rigorous game of NFL football coming into question and if so, is that a detrimental consideration for his draftability?............

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3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...put your "please" aside for a moment.....do you SERIOUSLY see McBeane expending draft capital to move up to where the perceived range of where Mayfield may go?....OR.......OR ....is Mayfield the 2017 version of Brady Quinn stuck in the Green Room long after his high forecasts and falls to McBeane at 21/22 (sorry, had to ask....LOL)?............maybe the new "Aaron Rodgers slip"......

 

 

...you know your stuff bud.....why is much being made about Rosen coming from a wealthy family and being a tennis player?........is his commitment to playing the rigorous game of NFL football coming into question and if so, is that a detrimental consideration for his draftability?............

 

Scouts and executives pick apart everything, especially this time of year.

 

Of course Rosen has flaws, but he doesn't do anything really bad... so even his flaws are better than other peoples game

 

so people try to break down his character , work ethic and love of the game etc...

 

People say he comes off as a know it all, a little punkish... Maybe it's because he's worked his ass off and expects to be the best? Maybe he damands greatness out of himself and gets pissed when he comes up short

 

Either way , he was the first true Freshmen to EVER START opening day for UCLA... and they have been around forever 

 

Hes extremely talented and he realizes it

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Just now, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...put your "please" aside for a moment.....do you SERIOUSLY see McBeane expending draft capital to move up to where the perceived range of where Mayfield may go?....OR.......OR ....is Mayfield the 2017 version of Brady Quinn stuck in the Green Room long after his high forecasts and falls to McBeane at 21/22 (sorry, had to ask....LOL)?............maybe the new "Aaron Rodgers slip"......

 

All I can say is, if there's a QB the Bills evaluate carefully and have slotted in near that position, I hope Beane is willing to "expend the draft capital".

 

As for Mayfield, it's hard for me to tell.  Trubisky and Mahomes went 1 and 10 overall last year, despite being relatively short at 6'2".  In general, though, GMs still appear to still have a strong preference for QB who "look the way you expect your QB to look" eg built like Big Ben Roethlisberger

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23 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...put your "please" aside for a moment.....do you SERIOUSLY see McBeane expending draft capital to move up to where the perceived range of where Mayfield may go?....OR.......OR ....is Mayfield the 2017 version of Brady Quinn stuck in the Green Room long after his high forecasts and falls to McBeane at 21/22 (sorry, had to ask....LOL)?............maybe the new "Aaron Rodgers 

 

Sooo... are you saying Mayfield might be exactly the guy McBeane is targeting and that they've somehow got it figured out that he's going to fall to them at 21?

 

I don't know anything except for the fact that if we stay put at 21 expecting to draft our future Franchise QB in an apparently extremely top heavy QB class, we almost certainly aren't getting our #1 choice and maybe not even #2 or #3.

 

Leftovers can be delicious. But they're still leftovers.

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17 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Scouts and executives pick apart everything, especially this time of year.

 

Of course Rosen has flaws, but he doesn't do anything really bad... so even his flaws are better than other peoples game

 

so people try to break down his character , work ethic and love of the game etc...

 

People say he comes off as a know it all, a little punkish... Maybe it's because he's worked his ass off and expects to be the best? Maybe he damands greatness out of himself and gets pissed when he comes up short

 

Either way , he was the first true Freshmen to EVER START opening day for UCLA... and they have been around forever 

 

Hes extremely talented and he realizes it

 

...welcome to "paralysis by analysis".....logically and realistically, they ALL have flaws.......without flaws both physically and mentally, a BUST would NEVER happen, right?....and as the draft will FOREVER remain an INEXACT science, you base your pick on exhaustive due diligence which conceivably fails in the end.....roll 'em................

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5 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

I watched 3 games each of the top 6 prospects. See chart below for my rankings.

 

My scoring system is weighted... for example... decision making has a weighting of 3x... under center experience has a 1.5x weighting

 

My 3 general takeaways are this

- Mayfield and Rosen are on their own elite level

- Darnold is not worth a top 10 pick

- Rudolph could be a serviceable starter.. not a high ceiling.. but could be Tannehill

 

Flame away:)

 

Click on the image below to bring up the chart in viewable size.

 

16WEap2.png

 

Can you do an assessment on Mike White?

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3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...welcome to "paralysis by analysis".....logically and realistically, they ALL have flaws.......without flaws both physically and mentally, a BUST would NEVER happen, right?....and as the draft will FOREVER remain an INEXACT science, you base your pick on exhaustive due diligence which conceivably fails in the end.....roll 'em................

 

Sometimes a kids career is set in stone before he even plays...

 

its all about circumstances and being in the right place. A kids career may shine bright in one place... but because of scheme / coaching/ atmosphere or all 3 he might not make it if drafted by another franchise 

 

Josh Rosen was 17 and telling Trent Dilfer what was wrong with his playbook... you can take that a few ways but at the end of the day Dilfer even knew the kid was special 

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5 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

I watched 3 games each of the top 6 prospects. See chart below for my rankings.

 

My scoring system is weighted... for example... decision making has a weighting of 3x... under center experience has a 1.5x weighting

 

My 3 general takeaways are this

- Mayfield and Rosen are on their own elite level

- Darnold is not worth a top 10 pick

- Rudolph could be a serviceable starter.. not a high ceiling.. but could be Tannehill

 

Flame away:)

 

Click on the image below to bring up the chart in viewable size.

 

16WEap2.png

Great work. You are illuminating! There are a few participants on this board who thrive during the draft period. You are in that lofty group. :)

 

I made a point of watching Mayfield as much as possible this season. I saw him in at least three to four games. What I can say about him, even against some very good teams, is that he was always the most dynamic and compelling player on the field. There wasn't I game that I watched where that wasn't the case. 

 

Rosen in some ways reminds me of Marino in that he throws a beautiful ball and can make all the pro throws. But for me the most enthralling player in this draft is Mayfield. I covet him!

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52 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Great work. You are illuminating! There are a few participants on this board who thrive during the draft period. You are in that lofty group. :)

 

I made a point of watching Mayfield as much as possible this season. I saw him in at least three to four games. What I can say about him, even against some very good teams, is that he was always the most dynamic and compelling player on the field. There wasn't I game that I watched where that wasn't the case. 

 

Rosen in some ways reminds me of Marino in that he throws a beautiful ball and can make all the pro throws. But for me the most enthralling player in this draft is Mayfield. I covet him!

I thought the same thing about Tim Tebow when watching Florida play, but we all see how his future went...so how will Baker do at the NFL level?...that is the question I guess :) 

 

Nice work Bo...ty for your time and effort

 

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52 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Sometimes a kids career is set in stone before he even plays...

 

its all about circumstances and being in the right place. A kids career may shine bright in one place... but because of scheme / coaching/ atmosphere or all 3 he might not make it if drafted by another franchise 

 

Josh Rosen was 17 and telling Trent Dilfer what was wrong with his playbook... you can take that a few ways but at the end of the day Dilfer even knew the kid was special 

 

...interesting and something I did not know.....Dilfer?.....at first glance, I solely considered his playing career (meh)...in his defense, he has become a better analyst than his playing days....although it won't happen, I'd love to see an in depth analysis of all QB prospects done by Romo, who is a definite rising star and knows his stuff......

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2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...interesting and something I did not know.....Dilfer?.....at first glance, I solely considered his playing career (meh)...in his defense, he has become a better analyst than his playing days....although it won't happen, I'd love to see an in depth analysis of all QB prospects done by Romo, who is a definite rising star and knows his stuff......

 

Yea it was at his elite 11 camp 

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6 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...so now get your azz in gear, use those magical scouting connections and get us "Tony's Take"....I'll be waiting.....:D

 

Hahah Romo is definitely very good at his new job and seems like a natural 

 

He is so in tune with the little subtleties he knows what every check at the line of scrimmage is... i do like listening to him

 

I bet defensive coordinators would love to listen to him as well during the game lol get me a feed of tony!

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WSU HC Mike Leach on Sam Darnold & Josh Rosen: "I thought they both should have stayed. I think that Rosen measures out better in some areas, the ball he throws is real pretty, but to me it seems like Darnold elevates his team & I think those guys play around him a little better"

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3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ha ha!  I would say that about Flacco.  Seriously, Flacco has had great play on the D side of the ball at times, and he has that SB win but otherwise in terms of actual recent QB results Tannehill > Flacco.  After a few solid years starting in 2013, it's like every other year Flacco throws almost as many INTs as TDs.   Tannehill is at least as good as Dalton, and without the benefit of throwing to AJ Green.   The only knock I can give you on Tannehill is he threw too many picks his first 2 years but he seems to have got to grips with that, so unless he starts doing a Flacco, we could win with that. 

 

Smith is sort of his own outlier class as a QB since he took like, 5 years in the league to start playing decently and longer to become good.  So do you call him what he was last year (quite good), or what he was previously in KC (servicable) or what he was his first 5 years (bust)?

 

 

I shouldn't answer for Bocephuz but IMO arm strength may reflect different things - Allen clearly has a howitzer but he doesn't seem to have touch on his short and intermediate throws.  Mayfield doesn't have a howitzer, just a good hunting rifle, but he seems able to dial it in.  Perhaps that is part of what Bocephuz is seeing?

Rating Allen and Mayfield 5 for arm strength would be same as rating them both 5 in accuracy.  

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1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Hahah Romo is definitely very good at his new job and seems like a natural 

 

He is so in tune with the little subtleties he knows what every check at the line of scrimmage is... i do like listening to him

 

I bet defensive coordinators would love to listen to him as well during the game lol get me a feed of tony!

 

After his first couple games he seemed to tone it down a bit, and I wondered if that was way - "Tony, back off, the DCs are piping you into their headsets!"

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

After his first couple games he seemed to tone it down a bit, and I wondered if that was way - "Tony, back off, the DCs are piping you into their headsets!"

 

Wouldnt bet against it! He's seen everything...   I did notice he toned it down as well as the season went on

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8 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

.....why has the Falk kid virtually disappeared from the radar?.......moving up would require some significant draft capital......what is your opinion if McBeane takes Rudolph at 21/22?....

 

idk what happened to Falk. i remember being impressed watching his 2016 tape and this year big dropoff. he’s gunshy for some reason 

8 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

We would have to give up everything to move up to get the QB that we like,I don't see Beanie doing that.

 

The more I watch Luke Falk the more I like him, he may take a year or 2 to develop but with his accuracy and anticipation I think he could become a very good QB. His film study is top notch, this kids whole life is a devotion to football. With good coaching I can see Luke Falk being a good starting QB.

 

Falk is really good throwing across the middle.. there’s something good buried there.. it may be buried too deep though 

7 hours ago, Mat68 said:

 

I commend the work and effort.  Scoring Baker the same for arm strength that you score Allen however, leaves me questioning your opinion on everything else.  That is really an apparent difference that jumps out at you.  

Mayfield had no trouble getting to any part of the field with zip. Allen of course has stronger arm but Allen is a freak

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Great job Bocephuz!

 

Two questions on Mayfield and Rosen: do either of them slide?

hah... not often. they both get a little reckless running 

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15 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

3 games is a pretty low sample size.

Darnold has less experience than the others, so he's less polished.

Darnold could be great, or could be another USC flameout.

that depends on witch games he is basing this on. If he is looking at each of there 3 best games witch I believe he did, Then the sample size is fine.

Obviously one does this cause you want to figure out what each players ceiling is.

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17 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I shouldn't answer for Bocephuz but IMO arm strength may reflect different things - Allen clearly has a howitzer but he doesn't seem to have touch on his short and intermediate throws.  Mayfield doesn't have a howitzer, just a good hunting rifle, but he seems able to dial it in.  Perhaps that is part of what Bocephuz is seeing?

1

You must have missed Allen's  performance in the senior bowl in which he threw with the touch into small windows in his second series. Probably this is what moved him to #1 in Mel Kiper's draft. The kid reminds me of Big Ben in the way he sheds sackers. He may go #1 overall.

 

 

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22 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Maybe it's just the height comparison but Baker Mayfield really reminds me of Drew Brees

I think you at right from a physical traits standpoint. They have similar size and stature but also their accuracy and arm strength seems similar. 

 

The big difference between the two is maturity. Mayfield is lacking some in this department and I believe the Bills will end up avoiding taking a run at Mayfield as a result. 

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17 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

see my chart for specifics. The 3 games I watched for Jackson were very underwhelming as far as passing goes

 

And there's my problem with cherry picking 3 games. I like when people do detailed analysis like this, but using only 3 games to decide who you think is the best is fundamentally flawed. 

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A factor to throw into the mix with all of these QBs is poor DB play at the NCAA level, even among elite programs.

 

I see a lot of "highlight" QB throws in college that result in big chunk yardage or TDs, but the whole thing rides on the back of horrible DB play.  In the NFL, those throws are quite poor and likely INTs.

 

I say this all the time, but the quality gap of the average player on the field among TOP NCAA programs and the NFL is just huge.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

A factor to throw into the mix with all of these QBs is poor DB play at the NCAA level, even among elite programs.

 

I see a lot of "highlight" QB throws in college that result in big chunk yardage or TDs, but the whole thing rides on the back of horrible DB play.  In the NFL, those throws are quite poor and likely INTs.

 

I say this all the time, but the quality gap of the average player on the field among TOP NCAA programs and the NFL is just huge.

 

 

 

Which is why I will never call an NFL player untalented...

 

You are exactly right that their is a HUGE talent gap between college and the pros... even between a blue chip school and the Browns 

 

the Browns would wax every college football team and it wouldn't be close. The NFL only takes the best of the best

 

lots of poor DB play in college 

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12 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

that depends on witch games he is basing this on. If he is looking at each of there 3 best games witch I believe he did, Then the sample size is fine.

Obviously one does this cause you want to figure out what each players ceiling is.

 

i chose random games. i general i tried to watch 2 against top competition and 1 against not so top

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38 minutes ago, GrizzReaper said:

It still seems silly to me that prospects are picked on for thier height... Sure wish we had grabbed up Russel Wilson back when. Although I suppose more often than not shorter QBs struggle.

 

There's a reason.  It is generally speaking harder for a short QB to make it in the NFL.  The linemen are bigger and faster, the LB are bigger and faster....it's tough.  It's not just QB, other things being equal, size is an advantage at most positions in the NFL.

 

I wish we had grabbed Wilson also.  Of all the boneheaded bonehead draft moves the Bills have pulled, trading up for TJ Graham when Russ Wilson was still on the board in 2012 and our last draftee QB had flamed out, is the one that still stings the most.  Yeah, I can see not 1st or 2nd round, but 3rd round?  Foles and Cousins were still there too.  Even if we thought Ryan Fitzpatrick was really our guy after the end of 2011, why not hedge our bets at the most important position and sign a WR in FA?

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55 minutes ago, GrizzReaper said:

It still seems silly to me that prospects are picked on for thier height... Sure wish we had grabbed up Russel Wilson back when. Although I suppose more often than not shorter QBs struggle.

 

...risking a MAJOR meltdown or crash of TBD as well as overcrowding the Peace Bridge with TBD jumpers, what happens if McBeane & his gang go OL/DL/LB or however you want to arrange them with the first 3 picks and look at the mid tier QB market of perhaps Falk, White, Lauletta or Ferguson?....perhaps NOT probable BUT anything is possible I guess.......

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1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...risking a MAJOR meltdown or crash of TBD as well as overcrowding the Peace Bridge with TBD jumpers, what happens if McBeane & his gang go OL/DL/LB or however you want to arrange them with the first 3 picks and look at the mid tier QB market of perhaps Falk, White, Lauletta or Ferguson?....perhaps NOT probable BUT anything is possible I guess.......

 

Well... In that scenario we would shore up the lines some and the LB group. All of which need some talent. Next tier QB group is meh... I figure thats just like keeping Tyrod. There wouldn't be much optimism regarding the QB for sure.

 

Personally I would like to see the Bills use this draft capital to make a move for a solid QB. Ive seen previous Bills teams with talent on the d line... Good secondaries... running backs and so on. Every season it seems there are talented groups on the field on either side of the ball and no matter how well those positions or groups perform... We are repeatedly let down by the QB in some way shape or form.

 

 Im hoping maybe they nab a long term QB and we get to see how they do with a solid QB and maybe less talent around the field. I'd prefer to see them field a team with a good QB and a poor DL rather than a good DL and a poor QB.

 

They have some ammo to move up. If they manage the playoffs again these next few years we probably wont have the capital to move up to grab a QB without really hamstringing future drafts. This is a good year to make that move all things considered. 

Edited by GrizzReaper
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22 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

 

idk what happened to Falk. i remember being impressed watching his 2016 tape and this year big dropoff. he’s gunshy for some reason 

 

Falk is really good throwing across the middle.. there’s something good buried there.. it may be buried too deep though 

 

 

2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...risking a MAJOR meltdown or crash of TBD as well as overcrowding the Peace Bridge with TBD jumpers, what happens if McBeane & his gang go OL/DL/LB or however you want to arrange them with the first 3 picks and look at the mid tier QB market of perhaps Falk, White, Lauletta or Ferguson?....perhaps NOT probable BUT anything is possible I guess.......

 

Falk broke his wrist in the 2nd game this year.

It's only speculation on my part but if something goes weird in the draft and BUF can't get the 1st tier guy(s) they want, I can see McDermott going for Falk.

From things I've read, NE is high on him too.

 

Good article about the wrist.

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/Washington-State-football-QB-Luke-Falk-played-season-with-broken-wrist-worsening-condition-forced-surgery-before-bowl-game-112939862

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