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Bocephuz

2018 QB Film Review: Results of watching 3 games each of top prospects

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I watched 3 games each of the top 6 prospects. See chart below for my rankings.

 

My scoring system is weighted... for example... decision making has a weighting of 3x... under center experience has a 1.5x weighting

 

My 3 general takeaways are this

- Mayfield and Rosen are on their own elite level

- Darnold is not worth a top 10 pick

- Rudolph could be a serviceable starter.. not a high ceiling.. but could be Tannehill

 

Flame away:)

 

Click on the image below to bring up the chart in viewable size.

 

16WEap2.png

Edited by Bocephuz
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Thanks for taking the time to do this. Good work my friend :thumbsup: 

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1 minute ago, H2o said:

Thanks for taking the time to do this. Good work my friend :thumbsup: 

my pleasure

 

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Just now, KGun12TD said:

Great stuff...love these posts. Thank you, Kind Sir!

 

certainly.. haven't been able to post much as my new job is a time suck.. but this was too important to not dig into

 

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Why isn’t Darnold a top 10 pick ?    What’s he lacking from your research? 

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  • - POSITIVES - 
    • excellent athlete, surprisingly good runner, strong arm, good in red zone
  • NEGATIVES
    • sloppy footwork.. mechanics.. relies on natural arm strenght too much
    • makes several poor decisions per game. Saw multiple bad INTS.. trying to make too much happen ( Rosen and Mayfield had very few poor decisions)
    • At times he throws on time and rhythm .... but not anywhere close to as smooth as Mayfield and Rosen
  •  
7 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Why isn’t Darnold a top 10 pick ?    What’s he lacking from your research? 

  • - POSITIVES - 
    • excellent athlete, surprisingly good runner, strong arm, good in red zone
  • NEGATIVES
    • sloppy footwork.. mechanics.. relies on natural arm strenght too much
    • makes several poor decisions per game. Saw multiple bad INTS.. trying to make too much happen ( Rosen and Mayfield had very few poor decisions)
    • At times he throws on time and rhythm .... but not anywhere close to as smooth as Mayfield and Rosen
Edited by Bocephuz
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3 games is a pretty low sample size.

Darnold has less experience than the others, so he's less polished.

Darnold could be great, or could be another USC flameout.

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Maybe it's just the height comparison but Baker Mayfield really reminds me of Drew Brees

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9 minutes ago, Bocephuz said:

 

certainly.. haven't been able to post much as my new job is a time suck.. but this was too important to not dig into

 

 

....great work......just curious........what surprises did you encounter as a result of the in-depth analysis that you weren't aware of?..........any key results that you may have anticipated including final ranking after work was complete?....thanks again...........

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1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

3 games is a pretty low sample size.

Darnold has less experience than the others, so he's less polished.

Darnold could be great, or could be another USC flameout.

 

3 games is all i have time for .. 

 

Darnold has great potential no doubt... IMO he needs a lot of coaching up to get to be an above average NFL qb. Whereas Mayfield and Rosen are much more polished 

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Maybe it's just the height comparison but Baker Mayfield really reminds me of Drew Brees

 

i can see that... much more mobile though

3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....great work......just curious........what surprises did you encounter as a result of the in-depth analysis that you weren't aware of?..........any key results that you may have anticipated including final ranking after work was complete?....thanks again...........

 

surprises - Mayfield’s height was almost a non factor. Very few if any batted down balls

- Allen is much more mobile than what I expected for a guy that big. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Bocephuz said:

 

3 games is all i have time for .. 

 

Darnold has great potential no doubt... IMO he needs a lot of coaching up to get to be an above average NFL qb. Whereas Mayfield and Rosen are much more polished 

 

i can see that... much more mobile though

 

surprises - Mayfield’s height was almost a non factor. Very few if any batted down balls

- Allen is much more mobile than what I expected for a guy that big. 

 

 

 

.....why has the Falk kid virtually disappeared from the radar?.......moving up would require some significant draft capital......what is your opinion if McBeane takes Rudolph at 21/22?....

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34 minutes ago, Bocephuz said:

I watched 3 games each of the top 6 prospects. See chart below for my rankings.

 

My scoring system is weighted... for example... decision making has a weighting of 3x... under center experience has a 1.5x weighting

 

My 3 general takeaways are this

- Mayfield and Rosen are on their own elite level

- Darnold is not worth a top 10 pick

- Rudolph could be a serviceable starter.. not a high ceiling.. but could be Tannehill

 

Flame away:)

 

Click on the image below to bring up the chart in viewable size.

 

16WEap2.png

This actually sounds about right from what I’ve seen from my untrained eye...of course I wouldn’t mind Darnold...but I definitely think he is over hyped.

Edited by JaCrispy

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Falk before Darnold. Wow

and Baker is 6’1”?  Must have hit the inversion table. 

Edited by Bakin

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16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Maybe it's just the height comparison but Baker Mayfield really reminds me of Drew Brees

Agree 100%...he has become my top choice...I think he has the greatest potential for success in the NFL based on the chip on his shoulder, his drive and determination, and his competitiveness, and accuracy...all these attributes outweigh what the other prospects bring to the table imo...and I am a recent convert too...initially I was NOT a Mayfield fan...but he is just too good in so many ways to deny him imo.

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Thank you Bocephuz  for such thorough research on such a critical draft.                                                

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We would have to give up everything to move up to get the QB that we like,I don't see Beanie doing that.

 

The more I watch Luke Falk the more I like him, he may take a year or 2 to develop but with his accuracy and anticipation I think he could become a very good QB. His film study is top notch, this kids whole life is a devotion to football. With good coaching I can see Luke Falk being a good starting QB.

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Pretty cool breakdown. There's just no way that Allen and Mayfield should have the same arm strength though.

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I hope Darnold goes #1. Too many mechanical red flags for me to think he's worth it so take him off the board so the Bills aren't tempted. His throwing motion is horrendous and he fumbles a lot as a result. He also has happy feet in the pocket. You need to throw from a nice solid base, not tip toeing like a tap dancer and then flinging it side arm. If you want to see what it should look like watch Rosen. Nice solid base turns his shoulders and keeps the ball high. Absolute text book delivery.

 

With Mayfield and Rosen it's a tough one. Rosen is the safer pick. Mayfield wants it more but desire can only take you so far if you don't have the physical tools. Tough to say where that limit would be. So far his height doesn't seem to be an issue but it's hard to say if it will be. I'd take Rosen and hope that he matures.

 

If Allen falls (doubt it) he is an intriguing prospect, but you have to be willing to keep him on the bench at minimum 1 full season, maybe even 2. If the Bills traded up to get him there would be pressure to play him right away and he's simply not ready. They need to get him one of those virtual reality systems and let him learn the mental aspects of the game. He has gotten by with having a strong arm and good scrambling ability but if he actually made the right reads and decisions he would be unstoppable.

 

Rudolph, I just haven't seen him do the necessary things you need an NFL QB to do. I want to see him under center with proper footwork and making reads in the pocket. I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round without seeing that.

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9 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

We would have to give up everything to move up to get the QB that we like,I don't see Beanie doing that.

 

The more I watch Luke Falk the more I like him, he may take a year or 2 to develop but with his accuracy and anticipation I think he could become a very good QB. His film study is top notch, this kids whole life is a devotion to football. With good coaching I can see Luke Falk being a good starting QB.

 

 

.....he always seemed to be in the discussion mix and then abruptly disappeared from the radar.....what happened?......

Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy

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3 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

I hope Darnold goes #1. Too many mechanical red flags for me to think he's worth it so take him off the board so the Bills aren't tempted. His throwing motion is horrendous and he fumbles a lot as a result. He also has happy feet in the pocket. You need to throw from a nice solid base, not tip toeing like a tap dancer and then flinging it side arm. If you want to see what it should look like watch Rosen. Nice solid base turns his shoulders and keeps the ball high. Absolute text book delivery.

 

With Mayfield and Rosen it's a tough one. Rosen is the safer pick. Mayfield wants it more but desire can only take you so far if you don't have the physical tools. Tough to say where that limit would be. So far his height doesn't seem to be an issue but it's hard to say if it will be. I'd take Rosen and hope that he matures.

 

If Allen falls (doubt it) he is an intriguing prospect, but you have to be willing to keep him on the bench at minimum 1 full season, maybe even 2. If the Bills traded up to get him there would be pressure to play him right away and he's simply not ready. They need to get him one of those virtual reality systems and let him learn the mental aspects of the game. He has gotten by with having a strong arm and good scrambling ability but if he actually made the right reads and decisions he would be unstoppable.

 

Rudolph, I just haven't seen him do the necessary things you need an NFL QB to do. I want to see him under center with proper footwork and making reads in the pocket. I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round without seeing that.

I like a lot of the points u make...my main concern is Rosen’s concussion and injury history...he seems kind of soft because he used to play tennis and comes from a well-to-do family...I wonder, if after another injury or two, he will just call it s career and pursue a nice cushy job in an air conditioned office place somewhere. :D

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I think after years and years of tentative QBs like Edwards, EJ and Taylor having a guy like Darnold would be a breath of fresh air. 

 

I think my favorites are still Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield in that order. Why didn't the OP consider Jackson?

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Good analysis, I think you are a little high on Rosen. He has turnover concerns similar to Darnold. I also think you are a little harsh on Darnold, there is no way he is a worse prospect than Allen. I think Darnold will be similar to Winston at the next level. He should be a mid level starter with too many turnovers to win consistently. 

 

Wish you added Mike White to the list, he is my QB4 right now. 

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