Trade Up? What it would take

[Dr. Who]

6 hours ago, Beef on Weck said:

l am going to get roasted for this but now that R Smith LB from GA has declared - would love to see him in Bills Colors.

Why?  He's a great player.  My favorite D player in the draft, though a DT like Hurst is probably just as important to improving the team.  I really want a qb, but if it doesn't play out that we can acquire a franchise qb, R. Smith is a nice consolation prize.

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, KingRex said:

The main reason from what I see for the 17 year drought was our football stupid attempts to emphasize finding a franchise QB to replace Jimbo.  It was this psychotic quest which not only led to usnot acquiring a replacement for the aging Kelly a season later than we should have (We should have drafted a QB prospect in the '94 draft and begin trying out FAs as well), but the fear of pissing off Jim caused us to wait a year and out of desperation we reached for todd Collins with a second in 95.

 

Even worse when Jimbo was forced to retire due to concussion, we then rushed TC to start before he was ready. This began a series of rushing players to start before they were ready and also stupid contract moves like giving JP a guaranteed big contract despite the fact he had serious injuries in his brief career.  Even worse they signed Flutie to an incentive laden contract which when he performed well not only resulted in a huge cap hit for the year, but by rule added to his cap hit.

 

So it went with foolish too fast QB development  attempts that did not achieve success with QB after QB.

 

The Bills should focus the QB search on:

 

1. Recognize that though Tyrod is NOT gonna be the franchise QB capable of carrying this team deep in the playoffs on his shoulders, that making our goal for 2017 to win the SB that virtually certainly was not gonna happen.  TT was actually just the quality QB we needed for a more rational goal which was simply make the playoffs.  Tyrod is NOT a franchise QB, but the Bills needed was a low-turnover QB  who had escapability to avoid the big hit behind our poorly coached OL.  Even though TT racked up a lot of sacks many of them struck  me as TT running OB a fewyards behind the OB rather than him taking the big hit.

 

Even better, there was not a large market for TT so we got the QB that led us to the playoffs for cheap.

 

2.  Rather than trade precious draft picks to move up for Rosen or Donald (neither a sure thing) but instead used these picks to reload one of the oldest rosters in the NFL.  We should look for a bridge teaching vet to help train Peterman and a late QB pick with upsides in a couple of years to be our disaster QB.

 

3.  We should follow the method Pitts used when they acquired Big Ben to win an SB as a rookie. 

 

Just as the Vikings, Eagles, and Jags went deep in the playoffs this year with pedestrian QBs (and even the Pats with one of the best players ever acquired him with a 6th round pick and unlike NP who out of foolish desperation we used as a starter too quickly).

 

Get a vet bridge as cheaply as we can and build a team with a superior D capable of the QB being the missing piece to put us over the top. 

 

Fact of the matter is this is a 3 year rebuild, with year 1 being complete. I have no problem giving picks up this draft to grab a QB and we can have close to $55 million in cap space to add a few value-based replacements here and there. Next season we are projected to have what $92 million or something close to under the cap and can move a few more players for a few more picks to revitalize the roster more. Getting a QB this year is a no-brainer. Just because this year honestly scrub QBs advanced in the playoffs, does not indicate that is a trend to success...

 

14 out of the last 16 years are Brady, Ben, and Peyton. Barring an extremely large upset it will be 15 out of 17 after the game this weekend...

 

The other 2 are Gannon and Flacco btw...

[FearLess Price]

That 4th overall pick looks good if they don't want to go up to 1 or 2.

 

We would have onenof the top 3 QBs and would still have a 1st, a 2nd, a 3rd, and etc.

[nedboy7]

I can see them trade down from the first round again. 

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, yungmack said:

Sounds like sarcasm. Right? Anyway, for all those who think giving up a boatload of picks to grab an unproven college kid for immediate insertion into the role of Bills Savior, this week's championship games feature Keenum, Bortles, Foles and one time 6th round pick Tom Brady. Might there be a lesson here?

 

 

It doesn't feature Foles. Or rather, the reason the Eagles are still playing is 90% Wentz and 10% Foles. Wentz and Brady are both elite. Bortles and Wentz both top three picks. And Keenum is playing like a top ten guy if not elite. I'd argue what you see here is that you need a guy who can play like a top ten guy to have a decent chance. That someone without a top ten guy reasonably often gets to the NFL final four but rarely do you see them carrying the Lombardi.

 

So you need a guy who can play like a top ten guy. And there are no guarantees anywhere, but the higher a guy gets drafted the more likely he is to turn out to be one of those guys.

 

I do agree though that when you draft a guy you shouldn't assume that just because you want him to be an immediate starter and savior that  that happens very very rarely. There will be development and that means time.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, KingRex said:

3.  We should follow the method Pitts used when they acquired Big Ben to win an SB as a rookie. 

 

Just as the Vikings, Eagles, and Jags went deep in the playoffs this year with pedestrian QBs (and even the Pats with one of the best players ever acquired him with a 6th round pick and unlike NP who out of foolish desperation we used as a starter too quickly).

 

Get a vet bridge as cheaply as we can and build a team with a superior D capable of the QB being the missing piece to put us over the top. 

 

 

The method Pitt used to acquire Big Ben was they lost enough games the year before to get the 11th pick.  And while I certainly wouldn't have minded that myself, that ship has sailed. Oh, and they got that 11th pick In arguably the greatest QB draft year in history. Not sure I see it being that good this year, though you never know when it comes to the future.

 

And Pittsburgh didn't win a Super Bowl in Roethlisberger's rookie year, though they certainly did have a terrific first Roethlisyear.

 

Oh, and Keenum simply hasn't been pedestrian this year. He's been very good. And if the Eagles had played Foles all year instead of Wentz they not only wouldn't have gotten a bye and home field through the playoffs, they might well have not even made the playoffs. Wentz is the huge majority of the 2017 story at Eagles QB.

[ganesh]

20 hours ago, Beef on Weck said:

l am going to get roasted for this but now that R Smith LB from GA has declared - would love to see him in Bills Colors.

The last time the three QBs that went ahead of us were 

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Ben Rothelisberger

 

Just saying!

[CEN-CAL17]

I could see if someone they really like Allen or Mayfield for example falls to say 10-12 they could move up. But i see them staying put, if anything trading back for more picks.

[WideRightRevenge]

So for the trade up crew ... taking into account the other QB starved teams ... Kirby wants to trade the next 3 years of picks .. which top 3 QB is worth it?

 

I like sitting back for Rudolph ... though the history of Big 12 QB successes is rare ... I'm not sure I see the differences (and welcome feedback) of what the other higher ranked QB's bring to the table for the draft price.  I kind of like controlling back to back picks.

[Stank_Nasty]

Now stick with me here..... For what it’s worth I have a very good friend that’s very close with a certain individual that is very close with a veteran on the team...

 

Said veteran informed certain individual that then informed my good friend, that what he’s gleaned and heard around the facilities is that they are prepared to use picks as ammo to get their guy in the draft. 

 

Now this isnt earth shattering news by any means but the one thing I think it does is rule out a run at a very high profile FA like cousins..... if it’s true. But I have no reason to think anyone would be lying about it. Becuz like I said, it’s not like it’s some big crazy new thing. 

[PaattMaann]

27 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Now stick with me here..... For what it’s worth I have a very good friend that’s very close with a certain individual that is very close with a veteran on the team...

 

Said veteran informed certain individual that then informed my good friend, that what he’s gleaned and heard around the facilities is that they are prepared to use picks as ammo to get their guy in the draft. 

 

Now this isnt earth shattering news by any means but the one thing I think it does is rule out a run at a very high profile FA like cousins..... if it’s true. But I have no reason to think anyone would be lying about it. Becuz like I said, it’s not like it’s some big crazy new thing. 

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

I am skeptical because I doubt McBeane is sharing their draft strategies with members of the team. It just isn't done that way. Also, its about three months too early to have your "draft strategy" set

[Stank_Nasty]

53 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

I am skeptical because I doubt McBeane is sharing their draft strategies with members of the team. It just isn't done that way. Also, its about three months too early to have your "draft strategy" set

well I have no idea why the people i'm referring to would have any reason to lie. but you can take from it what you will..... I also knew rex ryan was gonna be the guy a bit before that happened from the same chain of people. now obviously a boat load of things can change from now until the draft. and being "prepared" to use pick as ammo obviously isn't the same thing as for sure doing it. we shall see. 

 

like I said, not too earth shattering. only really confirms what I already believed. the only thing it really does for me is rule out the possibility of a high profile FA. I just cant see them paying a guy a ton of money and still moving picks for a qb.... I think its gotta be one or the other.

Edited January 17, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[PaattMaann]

8 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

well I have no idea why the people i'm referring to would have any reason to lie. but you can take from it what you will..... I also knew rex ryan was gonna be the guy a bit before that happened from the same chain of people. now obviously a boat load of things can change from now until the draft. and being "prepared" to use pick as ammo obviously isn't the same thing as for sure doing it. we shall see. 

 

like I said, not too earth shattering. only really confirms what I already believed. the only thing it really does for me is rule out the possibility of a high profile FA. I just cant see them paying a guy a ton of money and still moving picks for a qb.... I think its gotta be one or the other.

 

yea I would agree with one or the other...I could see a reasonably priced "place holder"/competition vet, and then using resources to get your QB

 

And I am not (intentionally) saying your source is lying, I would just question ANY front office that shares draft strategies with players. Like, seriously, what would be the benefit of telling players what you plan to do in the draft? Loose lips sink ships, and something that McBeane has done since day 1 here is plug many many many leaks from the previous regime. 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

So for the trade up crew ... taking into account the other QB starved teams ... Kirby wants to trade the next 3 years of picks .. which top 3 QB is worth it?

 

I like sitting back for Rudolph ... though the history of Big 12 QB successes is rare ... I'm not sure I see the differences (and welcome feedback) of what the other higher ranked QB's bring to the table for the draft price.  I kind of like controlling back to back picks.

I'm there with you at this point.  My opinion may change as I watch more and read more 

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Now stick with me here..... For what it’s worth I have a very good friend that’s very close with a certain individual that is very close with a veteran on the team...

 

Said veteran informed certain individual that then informed my good friend, that what he’s gleaned and heard around the facilities is that they are prepared to use picks as ammo to get their guy in the draft. 

 

Now this isnt earth shattering news by any means but the one thing I think it does is rule out a run at a very high profile FA like cousins..... if it’s true. But I have no reason to think anyone would be lying about it. Becuz like I said, it’s not like it’s some big crazy new thing. 

I believe that they would make a trade up, but I find it a bit hard to believe that Beane and McDermott would be sharing any information like that with the players.

[Stank_Nasty]

9 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I'm there with you at this point.  My opinion may change as I watch more and read more 

I believe that they would make a trade up, but I find it a bit hard to believe that Beane and McDermott would be sharing any information like that with the players.

hey man. do with it what you like. you don't have to take anything from it. its not like its anything we didn't already know anyways. I don't have a hard time with it at all becuz the same chain of people have fed me a couple other nuggets that were spot on.

 

he didn't say he heard it from them. just that from what he's gathered from being around everyone and being in the facility long enough that he's confident that's how they go.

 

and I don't find it hard to believe at all that certain vets of the team have a been given a good idea of which way the team is heading.

Edited January 17, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[PromoTheRobot]

I would be terribly disappointed and nervous if we packaged three or more assets to move up. Everyone acts like drafting a QB this year is an automatic ticket to endless Super Bowls. Really there is only a 20% chance the guy you draft is going to be better than Ryan Tannehill. Don't mortgage the future for Ryan Tannehill.

[SouthNYfan]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I would be terribly disappointed and nervous if we packaged three or more assets to move up. Everyone acts like drafting a QB this year is an automatic ticket to endless Super Bowls. Really there is only a 20% chance the guy you draft is going to be better than Ryan Tannehill. Don't mortgage the future for Ryan Tannehill.

 

And there is a 0% chance to get a QB in the draft of you don't, you know, actually draft one.

 

Everybody acts like the other draft picks we have would be automatic pro bowlers, so God forbid we trade them to gamble on a QB.

 

Guess what?

Every draft pick is a gamble.

Higher draft picks are less of a gamble.

QBs are a higher priced scratch off ticket than a linebacker is.

That's because if you hit big on a QB it's worth more than hitting big on a linebacker.

That's just a fact.

 

It costs more to play a $5,000,000 jackpot lottery ticket than it does to play a $1000 jackpot ticket.

 

You still have to buy the ticket to win.

 

If we don't gamble on a QB in the draft then we are gambling twice as hard on a free agent, since they most likely won't want to sign with us over Denver.

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I would be terribly disappointed and nervous if we packaged three or more assets to move up. Everyone acts like drafting a QB this year is an automatic ticket to endless Super Bowls. Really there is only a 20% chance the guy you draft is going to be better than Ryan Tannehill. Don't mortgage the future for Ryan Tannehill.

 

At the end of the day, if you swing and miss, you end up a middling team. If you don't take a chance, you are the same middling team we have been for the last 20+ years...

 

This franchise will be even more laughable if they don't get a QB, since it continues to be ignored. Hoping to pull a 2nd stringer off of another team or a FA QB and expecting them to do much for you is foolhardy and has not worked out well frequently enough to subscribe to this approach. 

[wppete]

Wow that is crazy expensive to move up. I say stay put go after Marson Rudolph or Baker Mayfield at #21 if they are available and keep building with all those picks and FA.

Edited January 17, 2018 by wppete

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

hey man. do with it what you like. you don't have to take anything from it. its not like its anything we didn't already know anyways. I don't have a hard time with it at all becuz the same chain of people have fed me a couple other nuggets that were spot on.

 

he didn't say he heard it from them. just that from what he's gathered from being around everyone and being in the facility long enough that he's confident that's how they go.

 

and I don't find it hard to believe at all that certain vets of the team have a been given a good idea of which way the team is heading.

I did not mean to imply that anyone was lying or making things up. 

Edited January 17, 2018 by OldTimer1960

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, wppete said:

Wow that is crazy expensive to move up. I say stay put go after Marson Rudolph or Baker Mayfield at #21 if they are available and keep building with all those picks and FA.

I like Mayfield a lot.  I doubt he falls to #21.  Rudolph probably will be there, but I am not impressed with him.  I just think qb is too crucial for long-term success to not take a more proactive approach.  I am hoping Mayfield drops just enough that a less expensive trade up becomes possible.  If you do just wait for the draft to come to you, I'd much prefer Jackson.  I can see a team falling in love with his athleticism and taking him early, but he could also be sitting there at #21.  If you take Jackson, however, you better have a decent vet as a bridge qb, because he needs to sit and learn (and of equal importance, put on muscle and weight so the league doesn't RG3 his career.)

[SouthNYfan]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I like Mayfield a lot.  I doubt he falls to #21.  Rudolph probably will be there, but I am not impressed with him.  I just think qb is too crucial for long-term success to not take a more proactive approach.  I am hoping Mayfield drops just enough that a less expensive trade up becomes possible.  If you do just wait for the draft to come to you, I'd much prefer Jackson.  I can see a team falling in love with his athleticism and taking him early, but he could also be sitting there at #21.  If you take Jackson, however, you better have a decent vet as a bridge qb, because he needs to sit and learn (and of equal importance, put on muscle and weight so the league doesn't RG3 his career.)

 

I don't like Jackson, but I'm not big on athletic scramblers.

I fully agree with your assessment of him that he needs to sit and put on some muscle.

 

I also agree there is no way Baker drops to #21 unless he murders somebody before the draft and on jail, or gets caught with a bevy of hookers.

 

Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield will all be gone by 15.

 

One thing to look at is the teams ahead of us in the draft, and their QB situation.

 

There aren't a bunch who are in dire need, so they may be willing to swap spots with us or others.

 

We have to take into account what other teams offer.

 

I think 3 QBs go in top 6.

 

You have the Browns (twice), broncos, and jets in the top 6.

 

Darnold and Rosen will be two of those picks.

The third is a wild card.

Mayfield or Allen most likely, with the one not taken sliding down.

 

The one who slides and Rudolph should be in the teens.

[BuffaloRebound]

Can't go cheap when it comes to finding a QB.  If Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, or Allen are their guy and they can go up and get him, I won't complain if they give up a bounty.  If Cousins is their guy and they 'over-spend' to get him, I won't complain about that.  With so many teams looking for a QB, gonna have to go all in to get a QB they feel strongly about because other teams will fell strongly about that guy too.  

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

And there is a 0% chance to get a QB in the draft of you don't, you know, actually draft one.

 

Everybody acts like the other draft picks we have would be automatic pro bowlers, so God forbid we trade them to gamble on a QB.

 

Guess what?

Every draft pick is a gamble.

Higher draft picks are less of a gamble.

QBs are a higher priced scratch off ticket than a linebacker is.

That's because if you hit big on a QB it's worth more than hitting big on a linebacker.

That's just a fact.

 

It costs more to play a $5,000,000 jackpot lottery ticket than it does to play a $1000 jackpot ticket.

 

You still have to buy the ticket to win.

 

If we don't gamble on a QB in the draft then we are gambling twice as hard on a free agent, since they most likely won't want to sign with us over Denver.

 

2 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

At the end of the day, if you swing and miss, you end up a middling team. If you don't take a chance, you are the same middling team we have been for the last 20+ years...

 

This franchise will be even more laughable if they don't get a QB, since it continues to be ignored. Hoping to pull a 2nd stringer off of another team or a FA QB and expecting them to do much for you is foolhardy and has not worked out well frequently enough to subscribe to this approach. 

 

That's what all gamblers say. Gotta play to win. Not exactly a retirement plan, though.

 

It's worth noting that many of the great franchise quarterbacks were not high picks. So I don't buy this trade-up-at-all-costs mentality, and I bet neither do McBeane.

 

Hopefully the guy they target won't break the bank. He may even fall to us. That would be awesome. But, please, no "Ditka" moves.

Edited January 17, 2018 by PromoTheRobot

[SouthNYfan]

13 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

 

That's what all gamblers say. Gotta play to win. Not exactly a retirement plan, though.

 

It's worth noting that many of the great franchise quarterbacks were not high picks. So I don't buy this trade-up-at-all-costs mentality, and I bet neither do McBeane.

 

Hopefully the guy they target won't break the bank. He may even fall to us. That would be awesome. But, please, no "Ditka" moves.

 

Agreed.

I'm not advocating trade up at all costs.

And equating it to "that's what all gamblers say" is true, but the reality is EVERY draft pick is a gamble, so is every free agent.

My point was that high stakes gambling, like for a high pick and a QB, costs more to enter the game.

 

Many high pick busts have unforeseen consequences that derail their career (Ryan leaf being a closet lunatic, rg3 and luck injuries, getting drafted by the browns lol, etc)

 

If they do their research, and really like a guy, and don't think he'll be available at 21, they should decide ahead of time what the max are willing to part with, and stick to it. 

Don't compromise and reach.

 

I'm advocating for a calculated risk, with the assets they deem willing to pay, but if your guy isn't available for the price you want, don't go crazy and bet the rent money too.

[Dr. Who]

5 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I don't like Jackson, but I'm not big on athletic scramblers.

I fully agree with your assessment of him that he needs to sit and put on some muscle.

 

I also agree there is no way Baker drops to #21 unless he murders somebody before the draft and on jail, or gets caught with a bevy of hookers.

 

Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield will all be gone by 15.

 

One thing to look at is the teams ahead of us in the draft, and their QB situation.

 

There aren't a bunch who are in dire need, so they may be willing to swap spots with us or others.

 

We have to take into account what other teams offer.

 

I think 3 QBs go in top 6.

 

You have the Browns (twice), broncos, and jets in the top 6.

 

Darnold and Rosen will be two of those picks.

The third is a wild card.

Mayfield or Allen most likely, with the one not taken sliding down.

 

The one who slides and Rudolph should be in the teens.

Yeah, it's a pretty complicated calculation.  My preference is for Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield.  Allen has crazy arm talent, but a lot of question marks.  He's a gamble I'd be worried about trading up for.  Jackson I would not trade up for, but hypothetically, if he and Rudolph are sitting there at #21, I prefer Jackson.

[SouthNYfan]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

Yeah, it's a pretty complicated calculation.  My preference is for Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield.  Allen has crazy arm talent, but a lot of question marks.  He's a gamble I'd be worried about trading up for.  Jackson I would not trade up for, but hypothetically, if he and Rudolph are sitting there at #21, I prefer Jackson.

 

I don't agree with the preference, but I do understand the reasoning.

 

I like Allen better than Mayfield, Rudolph or Jackson.

 

I would be happy with Allen, Mayfield or Rudolph, somewhere in the teens.

Any higher I'm not sure I'm on board if the price is too high, which to get in that range it might be.