Trade Up? What it would take

[Jay_Fixit]

I’m just anticipating draft day when after Cleveland selects at 1, we see the big red “TRADE” banner show up on the crawl.

 

And then there’s a trade.

[xRUSHx]

42 minutes ago, yungmack said:

Sounds like sarcasm. Right? Anyway, for all those who think giving up a boatload of picks to grab an unproven college kid for immediate insertion into the role of Bills Savior, this week's championship games feature Keenum, Bortles, Foles and one time 6th round pick Tom Brady. Might there be a lesson here?

Lessons?

Brady is not one to ever put in such a post.

 

Foles did not get Philly to the playoffs, Wentz did.

 

Bortles is a top pick and has had plenty of big moments to be in the playoffs. He is not all that but better then how you portray him as. He just went head to head against a HOF QB in a away game and came out in top. On to the AFC championship game.

Keenum is playing great, sometimes a good enough QB comes out of nowhere but he did not start the season for them either.

Edited January 16, 2018 by xRUSHx

[P51]

11 minutes ago, yungmack said:

Sounds like sarcasm. Right? Anyway, for all those who think giving up a boatload of picks to grab an unproven college kid for immediate insertion into the role of Bills Savior, this week's championship games feature Keenum, Bortles, Foles and one time 6th round pick Tom Brady. Might there be a lesson here?

 

This is not personal to you, Im just trying to figure the conversation out regarding this years conference championship QB's and now apparently any QB will do...

 

Whats the lesson?

 

2014 - Conference Championship QBs - Luck, Brady, Rogers and Wilson (2 - 1st round picks, a 3rd and a winning 6th round lottery ticket.)

 

2015 Conference Championship QBs - Manning, Brady, Newton and Palmer (3 - 1st round picks (#1's) and a winning 6th round lottery ticket.)

 

2016 Conference Championship QBs - Rogers, Ryan, Brady and Big Ben (3 - 1st round picks and a winning 6th round lottery ticket.)

 

Lets ignore that in the previous 3 years, 8/9 QB's other than Brady in the Conference Championship games were 1st round picks, 4 were #1 overall, 6 were picked in the top 10, and over react to the now.

 

Bortles was a top 5 pick, Wentz who led the Eagles the majority of the year was a top 5 pick, and the Vikings starting QB this year was the #1 pick and they also have Teddy who was a 1st rounder on the roster. 

 

Might this years conference championship starters be an abberation or beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances?? 

[xRUSHx]

14 minutes ago, P51 said:

 

This is not personal to you, Im just trying to figure the conversation out regarding this years conference championship QB's and now apparently any QB will do...

 

Whats the lesson?

 

2014 - Conference Championship QBs - Luck, Brady, Rogers and Wilson (2 - 1st round picks, a 3rd and a winning 6th round lottery ticket.)

 

2015 Conference Championship QBs - Manning, Brady, Newton and Palmer (3 - 1st round picks (#1's) and a winning 6th round lottery ticket.)

 

2016 Conference Championship QBs - Rogers, Ryan, Brady and Big Ben (3 - 1st round picks and a winning 6th round lottery ticket.)

 

Lets ignore that in the previous 3 years, 8/9 QB's other than Brady in the Conference Championship games were 1st round picks, 4 were #1 overall, 6 were picked in the top 10, and over react to the now.

 

Bortles was a top 5 pick, Wentz who led the Eagles the majority of the year was a top 5 pick, and the Vikings starting QB this year was the #1 pick and they also have Teddy who was a 1st rounder on the roster. 

 

Might this years conference championship starters be an abberation or beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances?? 

Great well thought out post 

2 hours ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

Don't move up!  All the "top QB's" don't turn out to be top QB's!.  Remember EJ, RJ etc.??  Maybe it's the "J" initial curse?

More like a team that always waited for a good one to fall to them and then misses out, decade after decade, Brown anyone? Then to decide to be going all in on a bad QB class for EJ a QB they moved back to get while adding Kiko as well.

 This is not a bad QB class, this is the time to go get one of the top prospects with a good 5 worth moving up for.

Edited January 16, 2018 by xRUSHx

[Pete]

6 QBs will probably go in first round.  And there is a chance 6 QB's go before pick 21.  This would be wonderful IMO.  That means 6 players would get pushed down board . This is a very deep, talented draft.  If we lost out on overpaying for a QB, we might draft stud WR and LB instead(or G or DT).  If so, that is two big upgrades, and the 2018 Bills are that much better

[xRUSHx]

3 minutes ago, Pete said:

6 QBs will probably go in first round.  And there is a chance 6 QB's go before pick 21.  This would be wonderful IMO.  That means 6 players would get pushed down board . This is a very deep, talented draft.  If we lost out on overpaying for a QB, we might draft stud WR and LB instead(or G or DT).  If so, that is two big upgrades, and the 2018 Bills are that much better

It would be yet another epic QB draft fail for this team if all 6 of those become HOF QBs but we end up with another Watkins/MD that did not help this team get to the promised land at all.

 

A real good draft with 5 or 6 real good QBs and the Bills sit on there hands not pulling the trigger for one? Sounds like the Whaley days and the puratory of never having a legit QB on the roster. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

10 minutes ago, Pete said:

6 QBs will probably go in first round.  And there is a chance 6 QB's go before pick 21.  This would be wonderful IMO.  That means 6 players would get pushed down board . This is a very deep, talented draft.  If we lost out on overpaying for a QB, we might draft stud WR and LB instead(or G or DT).  If so, that is two big upgrades, and the 2018 Bills are that much better

The Bills need a QB.

[NewEra]

Identify if there’s a QB that you like far more than the rest.  Go get him. If there are multiple QBs that they like, weigh the deals out there in a trade up and go get one.  If one of those guys you like has a good chance to be there at 21, see how the draft plays out and act accordingly.  Ether way.  Get one.  We need one.  It’s been too long.  If we don’t draft 1 in rd 1 I pray we sign one of the FA’s and stack the squad with defense and OL

15 minutes ago, Pete said:

6 QBs will probably go in first round.  And there is a chance 6 QB's go before pick 21.  This would be wonderful IMO.  That means 6 players would get pushed down board . This is a very deep, talented draft.  If we lost out on overpaying for a QB, we might draft stud WR and LB instead(or G or DT).  If so, that is two big upgrades, and the 2018 Bills are that much better

And we still don’t have a QB that can get the most out of that WR and the LB will be exhausted all game because the defense is on the field all game because the offense can’t move.  If we go the FA/trade route for a QB this IS the best scenario, no question.  Let everyone overdraft the QBs and we take BPA. Question is, are we going the FA route or the draft to get our Qb? Or both

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Original Byrd Man said:

If this team was a QB away from being a SB contender then I would say trade up, but they are not nearly that close, so draft a QB that falls to them and use the other picks to hopefully fill the voids

 

I think that's the strategy, but I would like to see them make a play for a good FA as well.

 

10 minutes ago, Pete said:

6 QBs will probably go in first round.  And there is a chance 6 QB's go before pick 21.  This would be wonderful IMO.  That means 6 players would get pushed down board . This is a very deep, talented draft.  If we lost out on overpaying for a QB, we might draft stud WR and LB instead(or G or DT).  If so, that is two big upgrades, and the 2018 Bills are that much better

 

If 6 QB go in the first round, much less before pick 21, that would be historic. 

 

4 QB in the first round is relatively unusual.  It happened in 2012, 2011, 2004, and 2003.  Only 2011 saw all 4 off the board before pick 21 (Newton, Locker, Gabbert, and Ponder)

5 QB in the first round happened once in the last 20 years - 1999 - and when I tell you the QB chosen were Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Dante Culpepper, and Cade McNown (all in the top 12 picks), you might agree that the results did not encourage this line of behavior.

When the more usual 3 QB are drafted, typically 1 or 2 turn out well.  2004 is an anomaly with 4 drafted and 3 hits (guess which team drafted #4)

[OldTimer1960]

I think the most they are likely to be willing to do is to move into the teens to pick a QB that they like if one is left then.  As you indicated above, they may be able to do that for a 1st and 2nd plus maybe some change.  

 

That feels about right given what KC gave up last year to get to Bills spot last year (a 1st (27), 4th (136) and future #1).  Future picks are usually valued about 1 round less than the actual pick, so at the time the Chiefs 2018 1st would have been considered roughly equivalent to a 2017 2nd.

 

One could argue that this year's QB crop might be considered stronger than 2017's which could push up the price (better product = more demand) or could push down the price (larger supply = lower price), depending on how you look at it.

 

 

[MarkyMannn]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

When the more usual 3 QB are drafted, typically 1 or 2 turn out well.  2004 is an anomaly with 4 drafted and 3 hits (guess which team drafted #4)

Watching Big Ben R play over the weekend, and it is amazing to think back how long it was to that draft, and how long Losman has been out of Buffalo

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said:

Watching Big Ben R play over the weekend, and it is amazing to think back how long it was to that draft, and how long Losman has been out of Buffalo

 

I know, right?  And the other three are still in the league, though questions about the remaining "shelf life" of one of them.  (I think if you gave him a better OL and WR who can catch, he'd be fine)

[TigerJ]

2 hours ago, Beef on Weck said:

l am going to get roasted for this but now that R Smith LB from GA has declared - would love to see him in Bills Colors.

Why?  He's a great linebacker and a perfect fit for Sean McDermott's defense.

[Dr.Sack]

3 hours ago, kdiggz said:

or we could have started Peterman and got it for free.  hmmmmmmmmmmmm

In the immortal words of Marrone “obviously”. 

[The BLUES Brothers]

2 hours ago, TigerJ said:

Why?  He's a great linebacker and a perfect fit for Sean McDermott's defense.

Thanks TigerJ.   I thought I'd get roasted because I understand/respect the bigger focus is on grabbing a QB as primary goal and I was bringing up a LB...but wow would be awesome to bet R Smith! 

 

RE QB: Today heard a Sportscaster bragging on QB Mason Rudolph - 4 year starter and he does not love the limelight - prefers to watch film and get better - love that dedication.

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

4 QB in the first round is relatively unusual.  It happened in 2012, 2011, 2004, and 2003.  Only 2011 saw all 4 off the board before pick 21 (Newton, Locker, Gabbert, and Ponder)

5 QB in the first round happened once in the last 20 years - 1999 - and when I tell you the QB chosen were Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Dante Culpepper, and Cade McNown (all in the top 12 picks),

 

Yikes!  That is a terrible track record! Only three of those nines (Cam, Dante and Donovan) ever did anything in the NFL.

[Reed83HOF]

If you trust your scouting on the QBs and really believe in him, go and get him. Otherwise, you end up exactly where we have been since JK retired. Trying to build a team without a QB and middling along the way, hoping to get lucky. As of 201y, but still relevant:

 

For the 14th time in 16 years, the starting quarterback for the AFC Super Bowl team will be Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.

 

 

[KingRex]

The main reason from what I see for the 17 year drought was our football stupid attempts to emphasize finding a franchise QB to replace Jimbo.  It was this psychotic quest which not only led to usnot acquiring a replacement for the aging Kelly a season later than we should have (We should have drafted a QB prospect in the '94 draft and begin trying out FAs as well), but the fear of pissing off Jim caused us to wait a year and out of desperation we reached for todd Collins with a second in 95.

 

Even worse when Jimbo was forced to retire due to concussion, we then rushed TC to start before he was ready. This began a series of rushing players to start before they were ready and also stupid contract moves like giving JP a guaranteed big contract despite the fact he had serious injuries in his brief career.  Even worse they signed Flutie to an incentive laden contract which when he performed well not only resulted in a huge cap hit for the year, but by rule added to his cap hit.

 

So it went with foolish too fast QB development  attempts that did not achieve success with QB after QB.

 

The Bills should focus the QB search on:

 

1. Recognize that though Tyrod is NOT gonna be the franchise QB capable of carrying this team deep in the playoffs on his shoulders, that making our goal for 2017 to win the SB that virtually certainly was not gonna happen.  TT was actually just the quality QB we needed for a more rational goal which was simply make the playoffs.  Tyrod is NOT a franchise QB, but the Bills needed was a low-turnover QB  who had escapability to avoid the big hit behind our poorly coached OL.  Even though TT racked up a lot of sacks many of them struck  me as TT running OB a fewyards behind the OB rather than him taking the big hit.

 

Even better, there was not a large market for TT so we got the QB that led us to the playoffs for cheap.

 

2.  Rather than trade precious draft picks to move up for Rosen or Donald (neither a sure thing) but instead used these picks to reload one of the oldest rosters in the NFL.  We should look for a bridge teaching vet to help train Peterman and a late QB pick with upsides in a couple of years to be our disaster QB.

 

3.  We should follow the method Pitts used when they acquired Big Ben to win an SB as a rookie. 

 

Just as the Vikings, Eagles, and Jags went deep in the playoffs this year with pedestrian QBs (and even the Pats with one of the best players ever acquired him with a 6th round pick and unlike NP who out of foolish desperation we used as a starter too quickly).

 

Get a vet bridge as cheaply as we can and build a team with a superior D capable of the QB being the missing piece to put us over the top. 

[ddaryl]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

6 QBs will probably go in first round.  And there is a chance 6 QB's go before pick 21.  This would be wonderful IMO.  That means 6 players would get pushed down board . This is a very deep, talented draft.  If we lost out on overpaying for a QB, we might draft stud WR and LB instead(or G or DT).  If so, that is two big upgrades, and the 2018 Bills are that much better

 

Almost every year you hear about 3 - 5 QB possibly going in the 1st rd.. Usually what happens is the offseason fan hype settles back to reality and a few drop considerably when the day comes.

 

 

There is some good QB talent but most will need some grooming and they all have questions to there game. Either way it wil be interesting to watch

[OldTimer1960]

7 minutes ago, KingRex said:

The main reason from what I see for the 17 year drought was our football stupid attempts to emphasize finding a franchise QB to replace Jimbo.  It was this psychotic quest which not only led to usnot acquiring a replacement for the aging Kelly a season later than we should have (We should have drafted a QB prospect in the '94 draft and begin trying out FAs as well), but the fear of pissing off Jim caused us to wait a year and out of desperation we reached for todd Collins with a second in 95.

 

Even worse when Jimbo was forced to retire due to concussion, we then rushed TC to start before he was ready. This began a series of rushing players to start before they were ready and also stupid contract moves like giving JP a guaranteed big contract despite the fact he had serious injuries in his brief career.  Even worse they signed Flutie to an incentive laden contract which when he performed well not only resulted in a huge cap hit for the year, but by rule added to his cap hit.

 

So it went with foolish too fast QB development  attempts that did not achieve success with QB after QB.

 

The Bills should focus the QB search on:

 

1. Recognize that though Tyrod is NOT gonna be the franchise QB capable of carrying this team deep in the playoffs on his shoulders, that making our goal for 2017 to win the SB that virtually certainly was not gonna happen.  TT was actually just the quality QB we needed for a more rational goal which was simply make the playoffs.  Tyrod is NOT a franchise QB, but the Bills needed was a low-turnover QB  who had escapability to avoid the big hit behind our poorly coached OL.  Even though TT racked up a lot of sacks many of them struck  me as TT running OB a fewyards behind the OB rather than him taking the big hit.

 

Even better, there was not a large market for TT so we got the QB that led us to the playoffs for cheap.

 

2.  Rather than trade precious draft picks to move up for Rosen or Donald (neither a sure thing) but instead used these picks to reload one of the oldest rosters in the NFL.  We should look for a bridge teaching vet to help train Peterman and a late QB pick with upsides in a couple of years to be our disaster QB.

 

3.  We should follow the method Pitts used when they acquired Big Ben to win an SB as a rookie. 

 

Just as the Vikings, Eagles, and Jags went deep in the playoffs this year with pedestrian QBs (and even the Pats with one of the best players ever acquired him with a 6th round pick and unlike NP who out of foolish desperation we used as a starter too quickly).

 

Get a vet bridge as cheaply as we can and build a team with a superior D capable of the QB being the missing piece to put us over the top. 

Well thought out post and a lot of it is spot-on.

In THE QB draft of 1983, 5 QBs were taken:

John Elway (1)

Todd Blackledge (7)

Jim Kelly (14)

Tony Eason (15)

Dan Marino (27)

 

Also, very interesting is that Bills also had pick 12 and used it on TE Tony Hunter - AHEAD of picking Jim Kelly at pick 14.