Why I Think the Smart Move is Pay to Get Cousins

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Agree with this.

 

You are set back when you go all in on one guy and don't keep taking them which is what you saw with the Bills and EJ Manuel. The position is too valuable.

 

Cousins is iffy. Some games he looks great and some games he looks absolutely awful. I saw at least a couple games this year where Cousins was brutal. He'd be an upgrade for sure but at what cost? 

 

Even the best QBs lay turds some games.  Big Ben vs Jags 5 picks

 

Passing for >4000 yds in a season, completing passes in the mid-60%, throwing 2x as many TDs as INTs and throwing >7.5 AY/A would seem to put a pretty high floor on just how awful a guy can be, how often.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Their defense has been pretty much on the same level as the Bills.  Aside from that, Cousins isn't a great decision maker and he throws for big yards because of the offense he plays in with a high volume of pass attempts. 

 

Wash. does have a high number of attempts, but their league rank for pass yardage is consistently well ahead of their rank for pass attempts (e.g., 12 vs 18 this year, 2 vs 4 this year etc). 

 

The usual interpretation would be a pass attack more effective than average

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wash. does have a high number of attempts, but their league rank for pass yardage is consistently well ahead of their rank for pass attempts (e.g., 12 vs 18 this year, 2 vs 4 this year etc). 

 

The usual interpretation would be a pass attack more effective than average

 

Won't argue against any of that, but I maintain none of it translates into him being a franchise QB that I'd pay top dollar for. 

[oldmanfan]

Basically those who don't want him are saying there's a better option in the draft, right?  I don't really see one.  Darnold is inconsistent and throws picks.  Rosen injury and personality issues.  Mayfield size.  Jackson arm especially accuracy.  Rudolph has only played in a spread and also accuracy issues.

 

Rookies are about potential and at least 50% of these guys won't pan out.  Cousins has shown he can play at a pretty high level in the league.  He's not a Brady or Cousins, but the likelihood of anybguys getting drafted being so is minimal at best.

 

Don't let the hope of great stop the pursuit of good.

 

 

[FLFan]

If Cousins makes it to FA some team will end up criminally overpaying him.  I sincerely hope it is not the Bills.  The Redskins have tried to resign him for the past couple of years, but Cousins has elected not to.  While numbers have never come out, one could assume that the Skins were trying to get a deal that was reasonable, and allowed them some future flexibility.  They are not totally sold on him.

 

The fans of the Skins are ambivalent on Cousins.  Many hate him. He can put up some gaudy numbers, but rarely in big situations.  He will make some head scratching throws and decisions.  He does not demonstrate leadership.  He does not lift the play around him.  He is an average to above average NFL QB.  Perhaps better than Taylor, but not worth a franchise type deal.  I would much rather the Bills look for a player to draft and develop than go all in on Cousins.

 

Right now the situation in Washington is that the Skins have said they want to talk contract.  Cousins has said he will not discuss contract until after FA begins.  It seems like he would like to force their hand on another franchise tag.  I doubt the Skins tag him again at $34m, and I doubt they want to pay what he thinks he is worth either.  Should be interesting.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

The QB position is like a used Toyota.  You can keep the prices higher than other used cars because people will pay that because they are reliable vehicles.  

 

...must be why all of the terrorists drive Toyota pickups.............

[without a drought]

Over 13,000 yards, 81td's and 36int's over the last 3 seasons.

 

He made somewhere around $20mil in 2016 and $23mil in 2017.

 

No matter who signs him, it will be expensive.

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My argument though Shaw is you are only spending the extra picks you have accumulated you are not creating any extra holes. If the Bills spend a lot of 2019 capital on a trade up I would agree the length of time a bad decision can set you back is certainly a year or two longer. But if all they use is their extra ammunition in this draft then I don't buy the creating other holes argument. 

I didn't understand that's what you were saying, and it makes sense.     But it's sort of saying "look, I just found some money, I'll spend it something bright and shiny, because it's just extra money."   That is, you're saying the Bills have something, extra draft picks that they didn't expect to have, so it's okay to burn them to move.   I think it makes more sense just to look at what you have - draft picks - and ignore where they came from, just ask yourself what's the smartest thing to do with what I have?

 

What I have is five picks in the first three rounds, and if I'm smart with those picks (and the GM always assumes he'll be smart with them), I'll have four or five guys playing significant time in 2018.    So the question is do I want to trade three of those five guys to take a chance on a QB?    And the big problem is that I'm not going to get the best QB prospect, because someone at the top of the draft is going to take him before I can get to him.  So I'm giving up three good players to take a shot.   And I'll have cap room to sign some free agents to help fill holes. 

 

Or do I spend my cap space on Cousins, have a higher probability of getting a quality starting QB, keep those three guys I can draft, but have no cap room to sign free agents?   

 

Those are the two ways to go, and neither is obviously the right choice.  I like the Cousins choice because of the higher probability that you have a top 10 QB in 2018 and going forward.   The other way you MIGHT get a top 5 Qb, you might get a top 10 QB, you might get a bust, and in any case you probably don't have really QB play until 2019.   

 

As always, thanks for your comments.  

[Tcali]

cousins a horrible choice...yeah lets solidify our mediocrity

1 hour ago, MDFan said:

If Cousins makes it to FA some team will end up criminally overpaying him.  I sincerely hope it is not the Bills.  The Redskins have tried to resign him for the past couple of years, but Cousins has elected not to.  While numbers have never come out, one could assume that the Skins were trying to get a deal that was reasonable, and allowed them some future flexibility.  They are not totally sold on him.

 

The fans of the Skins are ambivalent on Cousins.  Many hate him. He can put up some gaudy numbers, but rarely in big situations.  He will make some head scratching throws and decisions.  He does not demonstrate leadership.  He does not lift the play around him.  He is an average to above average NFL QB.  Perhaps better than Taylor, but not worth a franchise type deal.  I would much rather the Bills look for a player to draft and develop than go all in on Cousins.

 

Right now the situation in Washington is that the Skins have said they want to talk contract.  Cousins has said he will not discuss contract until after FA begins.  It seems like he would like to force their hand on another franchise tag.  I doubt the Skins tag him again at $34m, and I doubt they want to pay what he thinks he is worth either.  Should be interesting.

what team would be stupid enough to sign a poor mans philip romo for megabucks??...oh yeah little danny and the redskins

[LA Grant]

On 1/13/2018 at 1:33 PM, Shaw66 said:

I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

 

I don't dislike this plan. I'm not so sure about devoting that much cap room to Cousins and I'm not so sold on him being the answer. Whereas he reminds you of Kelly, to me, he looks like Drew Bledsoe -- a guy who gets the stats & fantasy points, but doesn't know how to manage situations to get the wins.

 

BUT

 

I agree with your points throughout. I think going all in on drafting a QB is so much riskier, and it's far better to just keep drafting guys and play the odds. Meanwhile, with the amount of holes in our aging roster, using the picks we have (or trading down) makes FAR more sense to quickly re-load the roster.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by LA Grant

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't understand that's what you were saying, and it makes sense.     But it's sort of saying "look, I just found some money, I'll spend it something bright and shiny, because it's just extra money."   That is, you're saying the Bills have something, extra draft picks that they didn't expect to have, so it's okay to burn them to move.   I think it makes more sense just to look at what you have - draft picks - and ignore where they came from, just ask yourself what's the smartest thing to do with what I have?

 

What I have is five picks in the first three rounds, and if I'm smart with those picks (and the GM always assumes he'll be smart with them), I'll have four or five guys playing significant time in 2018.    So the question is do I want to trade three of those five guys to take a chance on a QB?    And the big problem is that I'm not going to get the best QB prospect, because someone at the top of the draft is going to take him before I can get to him.  So I'm giving up three good players to take a shot.   And I'll have cap room to sign some free agents to help fill holes. 

 

Or do I spend my cap space on Cousins, have a higher probability of getting a quality starting QB, keep those three guys I can draft, but have no cap room to sign free agents?   

 

Those are the two ways to go, and neither is obviously the right choice.  I like the Cousins choice because of the higher probability that you have a top 10 QB in 2018 and going forward.   The other way you MIGHT get a top 5 Qb, you might get a top 10 QB, you might get a bust, and in any case you probably don't have really QB play until 2019.   

 

As always, thanks for your comments.  

 

No worries.  I lean the other way... I think Cousins will cost too much for what he is (and won't come here in any event so this is all probably moot) and you are better with a rookie.  Even if that rookie's ceiling is Cousins you have cap space to do some things around him.  If you are going to spend extra draft picks on something nice and shiny in the NFL it better be a shot on a potential franchise Quarterback. 

[purple haze]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It's different if you're just taking a QB who's available with your pick.   That's what happened with Manuel.   In fact, the Bills traded down and picked up an extra pick.   So the Bills didn't invest a lot to get Manuel, and that's why they were able to be a .500 team even though Manuel didn't work out.   The problem with that route is that a guy you're taking with the 16th or 20th pick probably has about one chance in 8 or 10 to be what you need.   If he's not at the top of the draft he's a longshot.  

 

If he's at the top of the draft he is still a longshot.  Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, JaMarcus Russell, etc...   It is hard to play QB in the NFL no matter where a QB is drafted.

Edited January 15, 2018 by purple haze

[26CornerBlitz]

 

The question is about Keenum, but the same idea applies.  I happen to agree. 

[BFLO]

Cousins is on pace to beat all of Jim Kelly's career passing stats. Different eras and all that, but saying he doesn't have HOF potential is a little short sighted. He put up 10 QB numbers this year with no team around him.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, BFLO said:

Cousins is on pace to beat all of Jim Kelly's career passing stats. Different eras and all that, but saying he doesn't have HOF potential is a little short sighted. He put up 10 QB numbers this year with no team around him.

 

I'll say it. He doesn't at all. 

[Thurman#1]

On 1/14/2018 at 6:33 AM, Shaw66 said:

I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

 

 

I'd love it, personally.

 

I don't think it fits what little we know about the McDermott/Beane axis' way of doing things. They seem to come from the build through the draft and don't bring in very high priced FAs side of the argument.

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I'll say it. He doesn't at all. 

 

 

That's a little short-sighted.

 

Heh heh.

 

But it is. Too early to know either way. Some HOFers are obvious by the end of their sixth year. Others aren't. Look at Andrew Luck. It was obvious by the end of his third or fourth year he was  a Hall of Famer. Until it wasn't obvious. After six years you wouldn't have known it about Elway, who'd thrown 101 TDs and 96 INTS by then. But Marino looked like an HOFer even earlier.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Thurman#1

[aceman_16]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'd love it, personally.

 

I don't think it fits what little we know about the McDermott/Beane axis' way of doing things. They seem to come from the build through the draft and don't bring in very high priced FAs side of the argument.

I am mostly in agreement with you. I am torn because paying Cousins big money allows us to build through the draft. We wont need to possibly package 3+ premium players (via draft picks) for 1 possibly good one (QB).

[Starr Almighty]

4 years/ 100 mil go get it done 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

I am mostly in agreement with you. I am torn because paying Cousins big money allows us to build through the draft. We wont need to possibly package 3+ premium players (via draft picks) for 1 possibly good one (QB).

 

 

Being torn's a pretty reasonable response, IMHO. 

 

Getting Cousins would be about the only situation other than not believing anyone in this draft will be a franchise guy that would excuse not at least trying to get up to an early position and get one of the surer things.

 

2 hours ago, Starr Almighty said:

4 years/ 100 mil go get it done 

 

 

I'd love it, but I don't think he'd sign for that rate or that length of contract, though the rate is maybe pretty reasonable.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My argument though Shaw is you are only spending the extra picks you have accumulated you are not creating any extra holes. If the Bills spend a lot of 2019 capital on a trade up I would agree the length of time a bad decision can set you back is certainly a year or two longer. But if all they use is their extra ammunition in this draft then I don't buy the creating other holes argument. 

 

 

I disagree with that, Bill.

 

It's like the old saying that once you've won some money at the blackjack tables you can take a bunch of risks because you're playing with house money. Which is logically incorrect. Once something is owned by you, it's yours. That's not house money anymore. Your decision process should reflect the fact that it's your money and you can walk away now owning it.

 

Same with those extra picks. They're ours. If we don't use them on a QB they don't disappear, they can be used to fill any position on the team. In fact, we got them by creating holes on this team, particularly at WR, holes that are still there. We have serious needs on this team that could be addressed in the draft but won't be if we use those picks on a QB.

 

As I say, I don't think that's the new regime's method, though, so I expect them to try to get a QB through the draft instead, and to keep their FA spending low.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Thurman#1