Which is more Risk UFA or Draft

[MAJBobby]

For this Hypothetical I will use giving Kirk Cousins over 110M with Big Guaranteed money and this package to get to 1 or 2 overall (three 1s and one 2 and maybe a 4th)

 

so lets say both miss and bust out what sets the Franchise back more

 

Spending huge Money on a UFA QB and them busting or 

Spending multiple picks to get your rookie and he busts. 

 

Which carries more of an inherent risk to the team, FO and Coaching staff?

[MAJBobby]

I would venture to say spending 60M guaranteed of the owners Money on a UFA and that UFA not living up or busting runs more of a risk to the GM, coaches and Team. 

[RiotAct]

Definitely a UFA busting, especially if they’re eating up that kind of money.

 

 

[Virgil]

Draft. You have no idea what you are getting. If it were that easy, the Browns would be a modern dynasty. 

 

I’ll take Cousins and his consecutive 4K passing yards here in a heartbeat. 

 

And I’ll give him 25 mil.  That will be a drop in the bucket with the way these contracts are escalating.  With his performance considering his WR talent, we wouldn’t be talking QB for a decade 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Virgil

[boyst]

UFA are the biggest risk. From Mark Anderson to Ryan Fitzpatgeraldibbons a miss on that investment can hold us from spending on depth and important lunch pail guys 

 

But, a bad draft pick in the first 3 rounds sets a team back further than a UFA.

 

The safe way is what the Bills do. Invest moderate money to a decent player at a high risk high reward position then draft whatever looks nice.

[H2o]

I think the draft option would be bigger hindrance. You invest the draft capital you have amassed to waste 3 more seasons and not get any return in your investment. With Cousins, he has put up numbers for 3 years with different pieces around him. I can't see him just falling flat on his face. There is no other QB that I think you can compare to him in the FA class. Bradford was widely considered a bust until he got to Philly. Keenum has been a flop until this year in Minnesota. To tie up big money in either of those two would probably be equivalent to swinging and missing after throwing away the draft capital. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

56 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I would venture to say spending 60M guaranteed of the owners Money on a UFA and that UFA not living up or busting runs more of a risk to the GM, coaches and Team. 

I'd agree draft. Spending on a big name UFA you are always overpaying. That hampers you from building out the rest of the roster with skilled players.

 

If you miss on a high draft choice you can at least have financial freedom to bring in other players, possibly even another QB.

[MAJBobby]

30 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Draft. You have no idea what you are getting. If it were that easy, the Browns would be a modern dynasty. 

 

I’ll take Cousins and his consecutive 4K passing yards here in a heartbeat. 

 

And I’ll give him 25 mil.  That will be a drop in the bucket with the way these contracts are escalating.  With his performance considering his WR talent, we wouldn’t be talking QB for a decade 

 

The point is what is more of a Risk. 

 

Signing that High Priced UFA and then him flaming out ala Cassel, Flynn and eating that guaranteed money??  OR taking the risk in the draft. 

 

I venture to say the GM and FO survive draft busts alot easier than they do UFA (big owner money busts)

[Virgil]

I still say draft.  To pay the money to a FA after seeing him play in the NFL and have him still bust is more on a GM than a draft pick.  

 

Also, if it’s a risk, you can work the contract to get out of it, ie Tyrod.  

 

Getting stuck in a large guaranteed contract on a problem player, ie Dareus, is a mistake. 

 

I understand the point you are making. Draft can be lucky. FA mistakes is poor decisions. 

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I still say draft.  To pay the money to a FA after seeing him play in the NFL and have him still bust is more on a GM than a draft pick.  

 

Also, if it’s a risk, you can work the contract to get out of it, ie Tyrod.  

 

Getting stuck in a large guaranteed contract on a problem player, ie Dareus, is a mistake. 

 

I understand the point you are making. Draft can be lucky. FA mistakes is poor decisions. 

 

So then UFA is more of an inherent risk to the GM future. Maybe thats why you see the conservative GMs stay away from UFA historically 

[Fadingpain]

31 minutes ago, Boyst62 said:

UFA are the biggest risk. From Mark Anderson to Ryan Fitzpatgeraldibbons a miss on that investment can hold us from spending on depth and important lunch pail guys 

 

But, a bad draft pick in the first 3 rounds sets a team back further than a UFA.

 

The safe way is what the Bills do. Invest moderate money to a decent player at a high risk high reward position then draft whatever looks nice.

The loss of a bunch of top draft picks is not as big a deal with this organization.

 

How many top draft picks from recent drafts are even still on the team!? 

 

We don't retain top talent as it is.

 

If they think their guy is in this draft and they can get him, I would support trading whatever it take to get that guy...if the whole thing blows up in our face, so what.  17 more years?  

[mannc]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

I would venture to say spending 60M guaranteed of the owners Money on a UFA and that UFA not living up or busting runs more of a risk to the GM, coaches and Team. 

Even if you’re right about that (and I don’t think you are), the chances of Cousins (a guy who has put up three straight years of borderline elite passing numbers) busting is much lower than for any of these rookies.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

For this Hypothetical I will use giving Kirk Cousins over 110M with Big Guaranteed money and this package to get to 1 or 2 overall (three 1s and one 2 and maybe a 4th)

 

so lets say both miss and bust out what sets the Franchise back more

 

Spending huge Money on a UFA QB and them busting or 

Spending multiple picks to get your rookie and he busts. 

 

Which carries more of an inherent risk to the team, FO and Coaching staff?

The opportunities at high round impact players is more important than realizing we wasted 100M on Cousins. We wasted 100 large on 2 lineman over the last 5 years. It's not my money. And let's not forget McD will be scouring the countryside for the next Keuchly. Yes we desperately need a qb to save us all, but our crystal ball keeps breaking. 

[Real McClappy]

The drafted rookie QB you spent multiple picks on, it's really not even close.

 

A rookie you sell the house on could set the club back 3 years easily in this scenario (bust) if not longer. Say hello to a whole new coaching staff and FO as well.

 

The Bills needs to stop playing around with the QB position. Snag the "high end" vet on a 3-4 year contract, draft the stud QB that slips in the 1st rd without trading up this year.

[White Linen]

None of you are answering his question.  Is it paying a QB like Cousins or giving up many picks to move up in the draft - if they both bust, which hurts the team more?

 

It's the draft pick and it's not close.  If you give up 3 first round picks, a 2nd and a 4th and that QB busts - that'll hurt.  However it's the risk/reward argument vs going with Cousins who makes you better but will never win you a super bowl.  

[SinceThe70s]

2 hours ago, White Linen said:

None of you are answering his question.  Is it paying a QB like Cousins or giving up many picks to move up in the draft - if they both bust, which hurts the team more?

 

It's the draft pick and it's not close.  If you give up 3 first round picks, a 2nd and a 4th and that QB busts - that'll hurt.  However it's the risk/reward argument vs going with Cousins who makes you better but will never win you a super bowl.  

 

As I read through, I was thinking the same about not answering OP's question. Draft vs. UFA is a much easier decision if we had a top 3 pick as opposed to having to pay a kings ransom to get there.

 

I can easily understand both sides of the argument, but in the end Cousins doesn't strike me as a guy that will ever be a long term answer. If he was, wouldn't Washington lock him up?

 

When I look at the top QB's in the league, most were draft picks. Brees is an exception but weren't there injury concerns (as I recall Miami went with Culpepper instead of Brees due to injury concerns). 

 

I'm on board with spending our draft capital to move up and take a chance on a QB, no doubt it's risky and the price may be through the roof but we need a long term answer at QB. 

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

10 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

For this Hypothetical I will use giving Kirk Cousins over 110M with Big Guaranteed money and this package to get to 1 or 2 overall (three 1s and one 2 and maybe a 4th)

 

so lets say both miss and bust out what sets the Franchise back more

 

Spending huge Money on a UFA QB and them busting or 

Spending multiple picks to get your rookie and he busts. 

 

Which carries more of an inherent risk to the team, FO and Coaching staff?

 

 

I think it depends - the FA bust you see sooner and if the team can adapt - it is a waste of money, but as we have seen - money can move and you can move on.

 

If you bust in the draft - it is less financial capital, but you hurt the team longer term with the loss of multiple players and typically it is 2+ years of solid playing time to solidify the bust status -so they lose more games.

 

Therfore if a staff is on the hot seat - think Chicago- and you bust on a FA - your Time is done because of the choice.  If a staff is new and relatively safe -they survive that mistake with a shot to still draft or acquire another QB.  

 

We see it play out both ways with teams like LAR, Ten, and TB drafting guys and then changing coach to try and salvage the QBs.  We also see teams like Chicago that busted on a FA.

 

The interesting place is Houston that busted on a big time FA in Brock, but the HC kept his job - I believe it cost the GM his, but they did not see eye to eye.  So as I said it mostly lies with how stable the franchise is and how stable the staff is, but a bust either way can cost you.

[JMF2006]

The draft costs less money up front but busting here gives the HO a really bad name and can lead to a firing or two.

 

UFA at least you have a body of work in the NFL and your target should perform at least to those levels,the down side now a days is that the QB position is so over priced that cap jail on a poor choice is inevitable.

[Buddo]

Under the OPs scenario, it will be the draft pick that hurts you more.

 

Mainly due to what you gave up to get him, as that could have improved the rest of your team, a lot, and you still have the opportunity to draft another QB next year.

 

Heck, if you don't give up the picks, you might still have a shot at one this year anyway.

 

The way the NFL is, if you do find a QB, you are going to have to pay them eventually, regardless.

[Big Turk]

13 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I would venture to say spending 60M guaranteed of the owners Money on a UFA and that UFA not living up or busting runs more of a risk to the GM, coaches and Team. 

 

Anyone that gives Cousins that money will struggle to make the playoffs every year.