Short passing in NFL by 538

[BarleyNY]

Some very interesting analysis in this article to consider when looking for a QB in the offseason.  The breakdown of the league’s QBs is really telling. 

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-quarterbacks-are-leaning-on-the-short-pass-and-its-not-working/

 

Picture this common scene on a Sunday afternoon. Your team could really use a scoring drive to turn the tide. On a 3rd-and-10, before the quarterback is even pressured, he quickly throws a 2-yard pass, and the receiver is tackled a few yards later to bring up fourth down. The crowd grumbles, the offense casually jogs off the field and the punting unit comes on. Better luck next time.

Sure, once in a blue moon the offense may throw a bubble screen on 3rd-and-33 and end up with a 52-yard touchdown, like the Rams did with Robert Woods against the Giants in Week 9 this season. But that is the rarest of exceptions.

[machine gun kelly]

Agree with the article.  How many times do we dump it to Shady on 3rd and have to punt.  Hard to know from TV whether the WR are open downfield.

[Theshallowcross]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2017/fivethirtyeight-how-aggressive-your-qb

 

There is an entire write-up on Taylor at the link I provided. Scott Kacsmar wrote the article and writes for both football outsiders and 538. 

 

It really bursts the balloon that Taylor is the leagues biggest check down artist. Only 13 QBs throw the ball down the field further than Taylor. 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, Theshallowcross said:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2017/fivethirtyeight-how-aggressive-your-qb

 

There is an entire write-up on Taylor at the link I provided. Scott Kacsmar wrote the article and writes for both football outsiders and 538. 

 

It really bursts the balloon that Taylor is the leagues biggest check down artist. Only 13 QBs throw the ball down the field further than Taylor. 

Right. Drew Brees is at the top of the list for throwing short of the first down marker. Taylor is somewhere in the middle.  It's a checkdown/dump-off league now is the main takeaway ....

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

If Tyrod ends up playing Sunday, which unfortunately seems likely at this point...Mcdermot better be telling him if you have a 3rd and 7 and a pass goes less then 8 yds in the air, leave your helmet with me because you are not going back in.

[26CornerBlitz]

10 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

If Tyrod ends up playing Sunday, which unfortunately seems likely at this point...Mcdermot better be telling him if you have a 3rd and 7 and a pass goes less then 8 yds in the air, leave your helmet with me because you are not going back in.

 

This is silly. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

This is silly. 

No, it’s not. What’s silly is throwing a 3 yd pass on 3rd and 11. Watch a few other games on Sunday and see which of the good QBs throw short of the sticks on 3rd down. Tyrod does it constantly. There is way to much indecision with Tyrod. Drop back, hit the last step and throw it. Don’t dance around and checkdown to repeated punts. Either hit that last step and throw, or hit that last step and run. 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

No, it’s not. What’s silly is throwing a 3 yd pass on 3rd and 11. Watch a few other games on Sunday and see which of the good QBs throw short of the sticks on 3rd down. Tyrod does it constantly. There is way to much indecision with Tyrod. Drop back, hit the last step and throw it. Don’t dance around and checkdown to repeated punts. Either hit that last step and throw, or hit that last step and run. 

 

It happens quite a bit all across the league with defenses giving QBs throws short of the sticks. 

Edited December 9, 2017 by 26CornerBlitz

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

It happens quite a bit all across the league with defenses giving QBs throws short of the sticks. 

There just isn’t going to be a time where you will ever let any criticism of Tyrod go undefended. I guess you are consistent at least. At this point you might as well ride the ship all the way down. It should only be a few more weeks. No reason to give up now. 

[26CornerBlitz]

6 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

There just isn’t going to be a time where you will ever let any criticism of Tyrod go undefended. I guess you are consistent at least. At this point you might as well ride the ship all the way down. It should only be a few more weeks. No reason to give up now. 

 

He has faults as a QB that are well documented as anyone can see, but some of the things levied against him go too far as if he makes no good plays or decisions and it's not the case.  He's not the long term solution, so it's on to the 2018 draft to hopefully identify and acquire a prospect who will be.

Edited December 9, 2017 by 26CornerBlitz

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

Agree with the article.  How many times do we dump it to Shady on 3rd and have to punt.  Hard to know from TV whether the WR are open downfield.

 

 

...they're usually INACTIVE on Sunday..................

[Big Turk]

Interesting Tyrod throws short beneath the NFL average for every down...

[sven233]

I'll just say that not all checkdowns are created equal.  There are checkdowns like Tyrod throws where it is a 3-7 yard dump off to a guy standing that results in an easy tackle short of the sticks and then there are other checkdowns that are thrown by real QBs to guys sprinting across the middle, in stride that allow playmakers to make plays.  When was the last time you saw Taylor throw a ball like that, regardless of what down it is?  YAC don't exist with the Bills and the QB is the biggest reason for it.

 

Just go back and watch some of the old 90s Bills.  Kelly didn't always throw it down the field to WRs that were wide open to pick up 3rd down conversions (although he did this plenty when available).  Kelly would have 3rd and 10, find Andre Reed streaking over the middle at 6-7 yards, hit him in stride and Reed would take it for another 30.  I am not sure Tyrod  has ever made a throw like that.

Edited December 9, 2017 by sven233

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

11 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He has faults as a QB that are well documented as anyone can see, but some of the things levied against him go too far as if he makes no good plays or decisions and it's not the case.  He's not the long term solution, so it's on to the 2018 draft to hopefully identify and acquire a prospect who will be.

He’s just not good. He’s not good enough and hasn’t been improving at an acceptable rate. I was at worst indifferent towards him until the beginning of this year. From the panthers game until now I am just over it.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

He’s just not good. He’s not good enough and hasn’t been improving at an acceptable rate. I was at worst indifferent towards him until the beginning of this year. From the panthers game until now I am just over it.

 

Based on what you post over and over and over again I'd say that's pretty clear. 

[fansince88]

6 minutes ago, sven233 said:

I'll just say that not all checkdowns are created equal.  There are checkdowns like Tyrod throws where it is a 3-7 yard dump off to a guy standing that results in an easy tackle short of the sticks and then there are other checkdowns that are thrown by real QBs to guys sprinting across the middle, in stride that allow playmakers to make plays.  When was the last time you saw Taylor throw a ball like that, regardless of what down it is?  YAC don't exist with the Bills and the QB is the biggest reason for it.

 

Just go back and watch some of the old 90s Bills.  Kelly didn't always throw it down the field to WRs that were wide open to pick up 3rd down conversions (although he did this plenty when available).  Kelly would have 3rd and 10, find Andre Reed streaking over the middle at 6-7 yards, hit him in stride and Reed would take it for another 30.  Tyrod I am not sure has ever made a throw like that.

IE, Hogan. He couldnt get a foot after the catch here because he would come to the end of the route, turn around and wait, then make the catch. Now he reaches up and makes the catch while running downfield.. IE#2  Goodwin, you know... the guy we called Glass... here he would turn, jump in the air for the catch and land on the stretcher. Now he runs down field catches the ball in stride and goes for yards. Huge difference is not the wr or the scheme  but the fact that.WE HAVE NOT HAD A QB IN 17 YEARS!!!

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

It’s just crazy to think that Tyrod got benched for being so conservative...then he gets a gift and in a crazy turn of fate, got his job back. The guy gets in and instead of learning from his mistakes and going down swinging, goes right back to being the same exact guy. It’s insane. You are pretty much told what you are doing isn’t good enough, then through no fault of your own get a second chance...Get back out there and do the exact same thing? If you get that second chance, learn from it. Take chances, do the things that they need you to do. If you go down, at least go down swinging.

 

Peterman could have gone out there after that 5 pick game and been terrified to make more mistakes. He could have taken safe throws just to show people he can do more then just throw picks. He got in last week and just started slinging it right in there with no fear. No one would blame that kid for being gun shy. Instead he went out and executed an NFL style passing game and put balls right on WRs. If you watched it on TV, it was the only time you saw a Bills Reciecer all day. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Right. Drew Brees is at the top of the list for throwing short of the first down marker. Taylor is somewhere in the middle.  It's a checkdown/dump-off league now is the main takeaway ....

The key with Bree's is that he places the ball where the WR can catch and run up field. Taylor throws the ball behind or at targets he doesn't lead the WR and throw the ball to where the WR will be.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

12 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

It’s just crazy to think that Tyrod got benched for being so conservative...then he gets a gift and in a crazy turn of fate, got his job back. The guy gets in and instead of learning from his mistakes and going down swinging, goes right back to being the same exact guy. It’s insane. You are pretty much told what you are doing isn’t good enough, then through no fault of your own get a second chance...Get back out there and do the exact same thing? If you get that second chance, learn from it. Take chances, do the things that they need you to do. If you go down, at least go down swinging.

 

Peterman could have gone out there after that 5 pick game and been terrified to make more mistakes. He could have taken safe throws just to show people he can do more then just throw picks. He got in last week and just started slinging it right in there with no fear. No one would blame that kid for being gun shy. Instead he went out and executed an NFL style passing game and put balls right on WRs. If you watched it on TV, it was the only time you saw a Bills Reciecer all day. 

 

 

....spot on bud....takes brass pelotas for a rook who got crushed to pull himself back up by the bootstraps...........didn't Tre get torched badly in the 1st half of a game only to come back in the 2nd with a dominating performance?....coaches went right back to him....didn't Zay play mind games with himself due to drops after a prolific 160 catch season in college?......coaches went right back to him and now he is progressing into the Zay we thought we drafted.......why is Peterman any different?......he's not IMO.......these are youngsters learning life in the NFL....and if the pundits think there is NO learning curve for rooks, OPT OUT of the draft.....problem solved, right??........oh wait, I forgot where I was...the "One and Done Gang" is lurking..........

Edited December 9, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

14 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

It’s just crazy to think that Tyrod got benched for being so conservative...then he gets a gift and in a crazy turn of fate, got his job back. The guy gets in and instead of learning from his mistakes and going down swinging, goes right back to being the same exact guy. It’s insane. You are pretty much told what you are doing isn’t good enough, then through no fault of your own get a second chance...Get back out there and do the exact same thing? If you get that second chance, learn from it. Take chances, do the things that they need you to do. If you go down, at least go down swinging.

 

Peterman could have gone out there after that 5 pick game and been terrified to make more mistakes. He could have taken safe throws just to show people he can do more then just throw picks. He got in last week and just started slinging it right in there with no fear. No one would blame that kid for being gun shy. Instead he went out and executed an NFL style passing game and put balls right on WRs. If you watched it on TV, it was the only time you saw a Bills Reciecer all day. 

Taylor doesn't trust his arm to make contested throws, guys had to be wide open for him to even attempt a pass. He doesn't trust his WR to make plays, those two end zone passes against Gilmore Taylor never would've attempted. If Antonio Brown or Julio Jones had Taylor as a QB they would be in his face on the sidelines telling him to throw me the damn ball.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Call_Of_Ktulu

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

7 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Taylor doesn't trust his arm to make contested throws, guys had to be wide open for him to even attempt a pass. He doesn't trust his WR to make plays, those two end zone passes against Gilmore Taylor never would've attempted. If Antonio Brown or Julio Jones had Taylor as a QB they would be in his face on the sidelines telling him to throw me the damn ball.

 

....wide open AND stationary.........he has shown no ability to spot receivers or trust them as you indicated.........and after 7 years at this level, I don't see how you can cure that "syndrome".......it is a mental and confidence aspect of the game.....the same one I think that sealed EJ's doom.....................

[BobChalmers]

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

The key with Bree's is that he places the ball where the WR can catch and run up field. Taylor throws the ball behind or at targets he doesn't lead the WR and throw the ball to where the WR will be.

 

Constantly - it's maddening to anyone with eyes.

 

And the throwing "at targets" is when he's having a good day - too often his throws are at the toes of his receivers on simple 5 yard routes and screens.

Edited December 9, 2017 by BobChalmers

[Luka]

And if he could throw an accurate pass we would be talking about playoffs. Any pass he throws the receiver has to go back for it. He's late on almost every throw. A lot of these plays, if he just puts the ball out in front and to the numbers, guys can make plays. Tyrod has never been able to do that. Never will.

[Theshallowcross]

2 minutes ago, Luka said:

And if he could throw an accurate pass we would be talking about playoffs. Any pass he throws the receiver has to go back for it. He's late on almost every throw. A lot of these plays, if he just puts the ball out in front and to the numbers, guys can make plays. Tyrod has never been able to do that. Never will.

 

Good luck making the argument that a guy who is completing 63.2% of his passes is NEVER accurate. 

 

My mind is literally blown that someone would even type something like that. 

[Schmuggs]

5 minutes ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

Good luck making the argument that a guy who is completing 63.2% of his passes is NEVER accurate. 

 

My mind is literally blown that someone would even type something like that. 

Your mind is blown, literally?  Come on man, let’s not be so sensitive. 

 

Smdh. If you can’t judge trod, then What can you judge accurately. I’d question your ability  

[Theshallowcross]

2 minutes ago, Schmuggs said:

Your mind is blown, literally?  Come on man, let’s not be so sensitive. 

 

Smdh. If you can’t judge trod, then What can you judge accurately. I’d question your ability  

 

What are you talking about? The dude literally used the word NEVER twice. To imply such a thing when he completes 63% of his passes is beyond mindblowing. 

[K-9]

10 minutes ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

Good luck making the argument that a guy who is completing 63.2% of his passes is NEVER accurate. 

 

My mind is literally blown that someone would even type something like that. 

I agree that we can't say "never" accurate. TT certainly has his moments. 

 

But there's a difference between completion percentage (balls caught) vs. accuracy (ball placement). Most QBs don't have a great mastery of the latter, Tyrod included. It's what separates the good from great passers. 

[Theshallowcross]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

I agree that we can't say "never" accurate. TT certainly has his moments. 

 

But there's a difference between completion percentage (balls caught) vs. accuracy (ball placement). Most QBs don't have a great mastery of the latter, Tyrod included. It's what separates the good from great passers. 

 

I wouldn't have even responded to a post like the one you just made because it is an argument that isn't debateable. It's when someone uses words like "never". That's the issue. 

[Luka]

21 minutes ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

Good luck making the argument that a guy who is completing 63.2% of his passes is NEVER accurate. 

 

My mind is literally blown that someone would even type something like that. 

Ball placement kiddo, it's what separates the great ones from the below average ones. Casual fans that read PFF don't see that anywhere in their stats so they just can't figure it out. If it wasn't for his ability to run and his great arm, he would've been out of the league years ago. He's a boom or bust passer. He will wow you with a scramble and a strike every now and then, but for the most part the ball is behind, low or high of his receiver. Gives the receiver zero chance to make a play after the catch.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Luka

[Schmuggs]

9 minutes ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

What are you talking about? The dude literally used the word NEVER twice. To imply such a thing when he completes 63% of his passes is beyond mindblowing. 

Devils advocate. I see. 

[Theshallowcross]

2 minutes ago, Luka said:

Ball placement kiddo, it's what separates the great ones from the below average ones. Casual fans that read PFF don't see that anywhere in their stats so they just can't figure it out. If it wasn't for his ability to run and his great arm, he would've been out of the league years ago. He's a boom or bust passer. He will wow you with a scramble and a strike every now and then, but for the most part the ball is behind, low or high of his receiver.

 

I'm glad you realized that it was a poor idea to try and defend the "never" that you used in your first post. Kiddo. 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Theshallowcross

[Luka]

Just now, Theshallowcross said:

 

I'm glad you realized that it was a poor idea to try and defend the "never" that you used in your first post. 

 

You've got nothing, sport.

[Theshallowcross]

2 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

You've got nothing, sport.

 

Ugh. Do you want to have a debate about something that you have no clue about? I'd be happy to do this but I was trying to not have an unending Tyrod debate. Most people have made up their minds so I see no point in a back and forth. You have nothing which is why you keep using words like kiddo and sport. It's hilarious. 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Theshallowcross

[Doc Brown]

Here's his original scouting report after the rookie combine from NFL Network and the highlighted part in his weaknesses is my biggest source of frustration with him...  http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/tyrod-taylor?id=2495240 

 

This seems pretty accurate although I would argue he's improved when it comes to his footwork and making too many ill advised throws (although many think he's too careful).  I think they move on from him, but he is a quarterback you could make the playoffs with.  He needs a good defense, a good pass blocking O-line, and a better WR core in order to succeed though (specifically WR's that can stretch the field).  We've never had all three at once, but that just shows his limits as a quarterback. 

 

OVERVIEW

 

Taylor is a hard working kid that has improved every year, but it is unclear if he can play quarterback at the next level. He has a quick release and a strong arm, but he is somewhat erratic as a passer. He also does not show the consistent sound decision making to be an efficient quarterback. His greatest asset is his athleticism and he should be able to contribute immediately as a running back, receiver or return man. A terrific senior season, where he completed nearly 60% of his passes, has helped his draft stock and he could sneak into the third round.

 

STRENGTHS

 Taylor is an excellent athlete with a thick muscular build. Has excellent mobility and continually evades the rush while keeping his eyes downfield. Has above average arm strength and flashes the ability to fit the ball into tight windows on short to intermediate routes. Team leader and fierce competitor.

WEAKNESSES

Does not possess adequate height and too many of his passes are knocked down at the line. Sloppy footwork prevents him from stepping into throws making him an erratic passer. Locks onto receivers and often telegraphs his throws. Struggles breaking down coverage and makes too many ill-advised throws.

 

 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Doc Brown

[26CornerBlitz]

17 minutes ago, Luka said:

And if he could throw an accurate pass we would be talking about playoffs. Any pass he throws the receiver has to go back for it. He's late on almost every throw. A lot of these plays, if he just puts the ball out in front and to the numbers, guys can make plays. Tyrod has never been able to do that. Never will.

 

Another example of ridiculous exaggeration with so many plays that easily refute this.  

 

 

 

[Luka]

12 minutes ago, Theshallowcross said:

 

Ugh. Do you want to have a debate about something that you have no clue about? I'd be happy to do this but I was trying to not have an unending Tyrod debate. Most people have made up their minds so I see no point in a back and forth. You have nothing which is why you keep using words like kiddo and sport. It's hilarious. 

 

I presented my argument, you're only retort is hanging on a word I used. I may have no clue but yet if you watch good QBs rarely do you see guys having to dive, twist, jump and spin just catch a 5 yard pass.  Your assessment of "but 63% bro!" is meaningless. Accuracy has everything to do with where you put the ball, the anticipation of the route and throwing to a spot. That's how the NFL works. Windows are small, guys are typically covered and you have to throw them open. Tyrod has proven he can't do that.

 

EDIT: Now I see you've posted a highlight video in defense of your argument. Have a good night, champ.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Luka

[Theshallowcross]

3 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

I presented my argument, you're only retort is hanging on a word I used. I may have no clue but yet if you watch good QBs rarely do you see guys having to dive, twist, jump and spin just catch a 5 yard pass.  Your assessment of "but 63% bro!" is meaningless. Accuracy has everything to do with where you put the ball, the anticipation of the route and throwing to a spot. That's how the NFL works. Windows are small, guys are typically covered and you have to throw them open. Tyrod has proven he can't do that 

 

Like I said, you've made up your mind. Even in the face of statistical evidence that is posted quite regularly, your mind has been made. And that's fine, everyone is entitled to their own opinion. 

[GunnerBill]

The original thread was about an NFL trend and I thought was pretty interesting. Took us about 4 posts to turn it into another Tyrod Taylor back and forth. 

 

Well played TBD.... well played.