Tropical Storm Irma - In Atlanta

[ExiledInIllinois]

 

Shear's supposed to be light at least until it passes the Leeward Islands. Don't know about after. The cold front moving south over the continent should keep it slightly south and west of forecast, though.

 

Personally...I think it's going to pass just north of Cuba, across the Keys into the Gulf, and hit the Florida panhandle around this time next week.

 

 

!@#$ that. I'm going to go to town on his ignorant ass like a Category 7 hurricane!

Great break down. I think it is hanging west around that high.

 

Before you go any further, be warned, you told me to NOT stop the stream of consciousness posts... LoL it gives "personality to the board." LoL... You were warned:

 

If it goes straight up the gut of the pennisula, may be better to break apart. Enough of this schit, where these things ride coast, skip over land and then in this case may ride up another coast. WTF, like hurricanes have a mind of its own?

 

Irma... Sounds like a crazy Spainsh lady also. Screw you, now I can't get this song outta my head (reference to the lady in song):

 

 

 

Oh... That thing with Pete... LoL...

Edited September 5, 2017 by ExiledInIllinois

[shrader]

 

Cat 4 is 130-156. Jesus, how the hell can you !@#$ up something so badly that is so widely known and easily verified? What are you reading, the back of a Cocoa Puffs box? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

 

He said knots and you're saying mph. His numbers still don't exactly match what's on your link, but that's at least part of the confusion here.

[DC Tom]

 

He said knots and you're saying mph. His numbers still don't exactly match what's on your link, but that's at least part of the confusion here.

 

There is no confusion. There is no such thing as a Category 6 hurricane. Pete's retarded.

[Pete]

Cat 4 is 130-156. Jesus, how the hell can you !@#$ up something so badly that is so widely known and easily verified? What are you reading, the back of a Cocoa Puffs box? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905082211443015680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2017-09-05%2Fhurricane-irma-strenghtens-extremely-dangerous-category-5-eastern-caribbean-lockdown

 

read the link poindexter. It's by a well known meteorologist. But what the hell does he know? Because you know much more then any meteorologist I am sure

Edited September 5, 2017 by Pete

[shrader]

 

There is no confusion. There is no such thing as a Category 6 hurricane. Pete's retarded.

 

So wait, you're saying some guy can't just make up random categories on twitter? I thought that place was great for everything.

[Pete]

 

He said knots and you're saying mph. His numbers still don't exactly match what's on your link, but that's at least part of the confusion here.

It reminds me of the lost Mars climate orbiter. Engineers failed to translate from english to metric

[CountDorkula]

 

Shear's supposed to be light at least until it passes the Leeward Islands. Don't know about after. The cold front moving south over the continent should keep it slightly south and west of forecast, though.

 

Personally...I think it's going to pass just north of Cuba, across the Keys into the Gulf, and hit the Florida panhandle around this time next week.

 

!@#$ that. I'm going to go to town on his ignorant ass like a Category 7 hurricane!

 

I looked recently and this is what it looks like they have it doing.

AS long as it stay above the 910-915 mbar. If the bottom drops out bend over and cry!

[Pete]

 

So wait, you're saying some guy can't just make up random categories on twitter? I thought that place was great for everything.

An F5 tornado max is 318mph. Oklahoma City in 1999 was 318 mph. Maybe with climate change and all, it's time to up the scales.

 

I looked recently and this is what it looks like they have it doing.

AS long as it stay above the 910-915 mbar. If the bottom drops out bend over and cry!

it is the second lowest millibar reading for it's eastern position, behind Gloria. And they say that is just one of many records Irma is gonna break

[DC Tom]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905082211443015680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2017-09-05%2Fhurricane-irma-strenghtens-extremely-dangerous-category-5-eastern-caribbean-lockdown

 

read the link poindexter. It's by a well known meteorologist. But what the hell does he know? Because you know much more then any meteorologist I am sure

"Extrapolated from" means THERE IS NO SUCH THING, you unmitigated dolt.

[GoBills808]

 

...a Category 7 hurricane!

[DC Tom]

 

Of course...on the "Pulled out of my ass fictitious Extrapolated Safir-Simpson" scale...

[ExiledInIllinois]

It reminds me of the lost Mars climate orbiter. Engineers failed to translate from english to metric

Hey it happens sometimes... :-/

 

That .15 mph (w/regard to the knots argument) can add up... ;-)

[GoBills808]

 

Of course...on the "Pulled out of my ass fictitious Extrapolated Safir-Simpson" scale...

I just needed an excuse for that gif, it kills me.

[Pete]

The Irma hits just keep on coming, with the NHC Atlantic Ops twitter page reporting moments ago that as of this moment, Irma is now the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in NHC records.

Edited September 5, 2017 by Pete

[DC Tom]

The Irma hits just keep on coming, with the NHC Atlantic Ops twitter page reporting moments ago that as of this moment, Irma is now the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in NHC records.

 

Gee, not six hours ago you were saying "strongest ever" as a "Category 6."

 

Any other reports about this storm you want to !@#$ up?

[DC Tom]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905082211443015680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2017-09-05%2Fhurricane-irma-strenghtens-extremely-dangerous-category-5-eastern-caribbean-lockdown

 

read the link poindexter. It's by a well known meteorologist. But what the hell does he know? Because you know much more then any meteorologist I am sure

 

You'll no doubt be happy to know that I tweeted a correction to that ignorant twit.

[Pete]

Only three Category 5 hurricanes have hit the contiguous 48 U.S. states, Henson told Bloomberg. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 that devastated the Florida Keys, Hurricane Camille in 1969 and Hurricane Andrew that cut across Florida in 1992. Andrew was originally classified as a Category 4 storm only to be upgraded years later after further analysis.

“It is obviously a rare breed,” Henson said. “We are in rare territory.”

[DC Tom]

 

Only three Category 5 hurricanes have hit the contiguous 48 U.S. states, Henson told Bloomberg. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 that devastated the Florida Keys, Hurricane Camille in 1969 and Hurricane Andrew that cut across Florida in 1992. Andrew was originally classified as a Category 4 storm only to be upgraded years later after further analysis.

“It is obviously a rare breed,” Henson said. “We are in rare territory.”

 

 

Except on the Extrapolated Safir-Simpson scale, Andrew was a Category 7.

 

You are so full of ****.

[Augie]

I don't care what category you want to call it - I just read maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. We rode out almost every hurricane that came our way, but this this looks like get the heck out of Dodge stuff. YIKES!

 

As Ron White says, "it's not THAT the wind is blowing, it is WHAT the winds is blowing".

[/dev/null]

It reminds me of the lost Mars climate orbiter. Engineers failed to translate from english to metric

Not so much that they failed to convert English to Metric as some parts of the team were using English for their piece and others was using Metric

[BUFFALOKIE]

They all use the same models, and its a bit too early to model this one after the Straits of Florida.

Still, if you want to see the steering currents, this one works.

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-103.58,13.13,302

 

You can rotate the earth to desired location, and double click inside the globe to zoom.

 

Press the "earth" thing at the bottom left to change altitude.

That's coooool!

[Captain_Quint]

Did someone forget to close the gate to PPP?

[ExiledInIllinois]

 

Only three Category 5 hurricanes have hit the contiguous 48 U.S. states, Henson told Bloomberg. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 that devastated the Florida Keys, Hurricane Camille in 1969 and Hurricane Andrew that cut across Florida in 1992. Andrew was originally classified as a Category 4 storm only to be upgraded years later after further analysis.

 

It is obviously a rare breed, Henson said. We are in rare territory.

We are right on track with that 25-35 year spread between Cat 5s... :-(

[DC Tom]

We are right on track with that 25-35 year spread between Cat 5s... :-(

 

Yeah, but this is the first CATEGORY EIGHT!!!!!111!!!!1 to hit the mainland US EVER!!!!11!!!11111!!!11

 

BTW...last predicted track has it veering more south and west, brushing the north Coast of Cuba and over the Keys...in accordance with the prophesy.

Edited September 6, 2017 by DC Tom

[Sig1Hunter]

 

Yeah, but this is the first CATEGORY EIGHT!!!!!111!!!!1 to hit the mainland US EVER!!!!11!!!11111!!!11

 

BTW...last predicted track has it veering more south and west, brushing the north Coast of Cuba and over the Keys...in accordance with the prophesy.

If your prognostication is correct on the path of the storm, I vow to come to you with any and all weather related questions. Siri sucks.

[/dev/null]

 

Yeah, but this is the first CATEGORY EIGHT!!!!!111!!!!1 to hit the mainland US EVER!!!!11!!!11111!!!11

 

BTW...last predicted track has it veering more south and west, brushing the north Coast of Cuba and over the Keys...in accordance with the prophesy.

 

You should put on a fancy bow tie and go on TV and call yourself DC Tom The Science Curmudgeon

[DC Tom]

If your prognostication is correct on the path of the storm, I vow to come to you with any and all weather related questions. Siri sucks.

 

Want to know the trick? Go here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

 

The forecast line over the past three or so days consistently evolves towards the south and west, you can see it clearly if you watch the forecast maps in the animated loop. NHC is constrained by their reliance on their spot runs of models to the point that they discount the evolution of the ensemble over time. (Not that I blame them - if I were predicting multi-billion dollar disasters for a living, I'd be over-reliant on the models, too. Ignore my instinct and report the models, and when you're wrong people say "Eh, the models aren't perfect." But ignore the models, and people say "What the !@#$ is wrong with you???") That and common-sense look at a surface map ("weather bounces off blue lines") will get you pretty far.

[Chef Jim]

And you people say we're nuts for living in earthquake country.

[ExiledInIllinois]

And you people say we're nuts for living in earthquake country.

You're nuts.

 

;-)

 

Now... Tornado Ally... Perfectly fine!

 

;-)

 

0h, BTW... Cleveland is the safest place in country! Even know they have rivers that catch fire. :-)

[ExiledInIllinois]

Little bit off topic. Looking @ Sherpa's link now:

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=171.29,56.76,753

 

Can anybody explain WTF is happening between Russian & Alaska right now? Is that just a huge ex-tropical low? Is there a special name for that? Or is Mikkos Cassadine building a weather machine for Lil' Kim in the DPNK.

 

It's off the Kamchatka pennisula and between that and the Aleutian archipelago.

 

If this was in warmer water, would it be a typhoon, cyclone, or hurricane?

 

Holy Moly!

 

ScreenShot @ 00:12 on 9/6:

 

 

Back to your regularly scheduled Irma coverage

[sherpa]

Little bit off topic. Looking @ Sherpa's link now:

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=171.29,56.76,753

 

Can anybody explain WTF is happening between Russian & Alaska right now? Is that just a huge ex-tropical low? Is there a special name for that? Or is Mikkos Cassadine building a weather machine for Lil' Kim in the DPNK.

 

It's off the Kamchatka pennisula and between that and the Aleutian archipelago.

 

If this was in warmer water, would it be a typhoon, cyclone, or hurricane?

 

Holy Moly!

 

ScreenShot @ 00:12 on 9/6:

 

Screenshot_20170906-001203.jpg

 

Back to your regularly scheduled Irma coverage

 

Its just a garden variety strong low.

That's quite normal in the Bering Sea during the summer-winter transition.

Surface winds are only 22 knots at Adak and Attu station, and the barometric pressure at Adak is 29.79, which is low, but not tremendously low.

That area is the airspace that contains routes from NY/Chicago to Tokyo, and last evening the more northern routes were being used because of it. Coast out points were Nome and north instead of Anchorage to avoid it, but get a bit of the tailwind from it.

 

By the way, you mentioned the Bermuda High, which is one of the semi-permanent weather systems on earth, This one is another, called the Aleutian Low, though it is usually further south.

Icelandic Low and Pacific High are the other two.

 

The naming of a storm depends on where it is. In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific its a hurricane, In the Northwest Pacific its a typhoon and in the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean its a cyclone.

All the same thing.

Edited September 6, 2017 by sherpa

[/dev/null]

0h, BTW... Cleveland is the safest place in country! Even know they have rivers that catch fire. :-)

Even though not Even know

 

This one belongs in the Pet Peeve thread

[CountDorkula]

Pressure dropped from 930mb to 916mb in a day.

 

Models have it turning right earlier than anticipated.

[/dev/null]

Pressure dropped from 930mb to 916mb in a day.

 

Models have it turning right earlier than anticipated.

Which means it may miss Cuba, which is very mountainous and would slow the storm.

 

Instead it's taking aim at South Florida then maybe back out to sea across for a potential second landfall further up the East Coast

[shrader]

 

Want to know the trick? Go here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

 

The forecast line over the past three or so days consistently evolves towards the south and west, you can see it clearly if you watch the forecast maps in the animated loop. NHC is constrained by their reliance on their spot runs of models to the point that they discount the evolution of the ensemble over time. (Not that I blame them - if I were predicting multi-billion dollar disasters for a living, I'd be over-reliant on the models, too. Ignore my instinct and report the models, and when you're wrong people say "Eh, the models aren't perfect." But ignore the models, and people say "What the !@#$ is wrong with you???") That and common-sense look at a surface map ("weather bounces off blue lines") will get you pretty far.

 

So if it "bounces off the blue line" across Florida in that map, does it head up into the Atlantic/east coast or does it head to Mexico?

[Augie]

So if it "bounces off the blue line" across Florida in that map, does it head up into the Atlantic/east coast or does it head to Mexico?

The CNN weather guy just said 2 very similar projections have it crossing Florida to slide up the Atlantic coast in a track much like Hugo (landfall there was Charleston, SC then tore up a path through Charlotte).

[sherpa]

 

So if it "bounces off the blue line" across Florida in that map, does it head up into the Atlantic/east coast or does it head to Mexico?

 

"Blue lines" are cold fronts.

Cold fronts move, so it may not be there at all when this storm arrives.

 

I'm sure most folks know this, but there are already gas stations and hardware stores out of fuel and plywood in south Florida.

Lines formed at 3AM in some places.

[shrader]

 

"Blue lines" are cold fronts.

Cold fronts move, so it may not be there at all when this storm arrives.

 

Yes, I realize that things change. If everything was in the right place at the right time though, which way would that cold front send it?

[Pete]

 

Yes, I realize that things change. If everything was in the right place at the right time though, which way would that cold front send it?co

I believe the cold front will push it east. Where ever the cold front slams against Irma, the cold front will stick around and will get additional heavy rain long after Irma leaves

Edited September 6, 2017 by Pete

[sherpa]

 

Yes, I realize that things change. If everything was in the right place at the right time though, which way would that cold front send it?

 

Cold fronts move pretty quickly, are mostly surface things, and it should move on.

The cold front would block it, but not completely.

More likely is that an upper level disturbance will steer it.

 

Same as the comment someone made about Cuba. Cuba is mountainous, but very narrow, and this storm is massive. Cuba wouldn't do anything to it.

To diminish, it needs to have it's energy source stopped, and that means land.