teef Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 I don't really create treads because quite frankly I usually don't have anything that important to say, but this is a topic that has come up a couple of time, and I'm curious about differing opinions. A couple of the posters that are upset about the trade have said that Sammy was going to have a huge year this upcoming year. I'm curious as to why some may think that. I don't agree, but I'm always open to listening to the other side of the coin. Had Sammy stayed with the Bills this year, what kind of numbers do you think he would have put up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 He has the ability to be one of the top receivers in the NFL. Whether that happens, who knows. Personally, I would never take the risk of trading a player with potential for the package we got. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) If healthy and plays all 16, I would say at least his rookie numbers which was close to 1000. Probably 8-10 TDs. Edited August 15, 2017 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 He has the ability to be one of the top receivers in the NFL. Whether that happens, who knows. Personally, I would never take the risk of trading a player with potential for the package we got. Time will tell. i completely agree. he could be great. that being said, what would his production have been with the pieces on the team right now, (baring another trade)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 There are also reasons just beyond his own production for why it made sense to keep him. He is one of 3 players on offense that defenders had to be primarily concerned about. Him, McCoy and Taylor. Now there is one less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 If healthy and plays all 16, I would say at least his rookie numbers which was close to 1000. Probably 8-10 TDs. this would be my guess as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) I don't really create treads because quite frankly I usually don't have anything that important to say, but this is a topic that has come up a couple of time, and I'm curious about differing opinions. A couple of the posters that are upset about the trade have said that Sammy was going to have a huge year this upcoming year. I'm curious as to why some may think that. I don't agree, but I'm always open to listening to the other side of the coin. Had Sammy stayed with the Bills this year, what kind of numbers do you think he would have put up? If stayed in buffalo and Stayed healthy (big if) 75 catches 1222 yards 8-10 TDs That's based off looking at what was his best 9 game stretch at the end of 2015 Edited August 15, 2017 by MAJBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreddieJizzle22 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 I think he would've put up huge numbers. Thought we were going to be throwing more in this new offense anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 There are also reasons just beyond his own production for why it made sense to keep him. He is one of 3 players on offense that defenders had to be primarily concerned about. Him, McCoy and Taylor. Now there is one less. right, but are you paying a guy in that 12-13 million range for possibly just getting average production? I think he would've put up huge numbers. Thought we were going to be throwing more in this new offense anyways. huge numbers? from tyrod? even throwing more i would doubt there would be huge numbers. on top of that, he would have to stay completely healthy all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlottebillsfan2 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 I think people say that because players tend to have break out seasons when they are in a contract year. This is why I like the trade. If Sammy has a huge season you either have to pay him top dollar or franchise him and he forces your hand. Considering he has had injury problems do you want that financial risk? We ended up getting value for a guy we didn't want to pay even if he had a great season. Now if he gets hurt again Beane looks like the smartest guy in the room. Really a win win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 If stayed in buffalo and Stayed healthy (big if) 75 catches 1222 yards 8-10 TDs i would guess that would be his absolute top end with the way this team is set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 right, but are you paying a guy in that 12-13 million range for possibly just getting average production? You weren't paying him that this year. The Bills just paid $5.6 million to kick him off the team. And they had to give away a 6th round pick for him to take with him in his gym bag. The Bills are paying Watkins to NOT PLAY for them this year. Smart huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 I am of the belief that the pass attempts are going to rise in Dennison's offense by about 5 a game (give or take). He has been able to get the ball to his best receivers in the past. Sammy is apparently healthy. His per target numbers are fantastic (8.91 yards per target). If the Bills threw 34-35 times a game I didn't think 9 targets for Watkins was crazy. If healthy, based on his career numbers, that extrapolates to 1,283 yards. Watkins only issues were health and targets. He has missed 23% of his games and hasn't been targeted at the same rate as other top receivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 A million yards All the TDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Real McClappy Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) right, but are you paying a guy in that 12-13 million range for possibly just getting average production? huge numbers? from tyrod? even throwing more i would doubt there would be huge numbers. on top of that, he would have to stay completely healthy all season. 12-13mill? Sammy is slotted to make $690K this year with the Rams? Edited August 15, 2017 by Real McCoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreddieJizzle22 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 right, but are you paying a guy in that 12-13 million range for possibly just getting average production? huge numbers? from tyrod? even throwing more i would doubt there would be huge numbers. on top of that, he would have to stay completely healthy all season. Yes. Even from Tyrod. Watkins was on pace for almost 1300 yards receiving in 2015...and that was with a run-first offense in Greg Roman. I think he could go for 14, or 1500 if healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 If stayed in buffalo and Stayed healthy (big if) 75 catches 1222 yards 8-10 TDs That's based off looking at what was his best 9 game stretch at the end of 2015 Not far off of where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 i completely agree. he could be great. that being said, what would his production have been with the pieces on the team right now, (baring another trade)? Tyrod is so uneven as a passer, it's hard to predict. But his last 8 games of 2014, wasn't he like the best wr in the NFL? And as stupid as preseason is, it looked like they might get the ball as much as they should this season. But based on what we saw from Sammy in his only quarter in our new offense, barring injury, 256 catches for 2,496 yards. Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 right, but are you paying a guy in that 12-13 million range for possibly just getting average production? huge numbers? from tyrod? even throwing more i would doubt there would be huge numbers. on top of that, he would have to stay completely healthy all season. which is really more of an analytics approach and I get that. For me though I don't care about stats much at all. I don't really see any WRs putting up huge #s with TT. But then again I don't think TT will be the QB long-term so ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 You weren't paying him that this year. The Bills just paid $5.6 million to kick him off the team. And they had to give away a 6th round pick for him to take with him in his gym bag. The Bills are paying Watkins to NOT PLAY for them this year. Smart huh? with the acquisition of a 2nd round pick and a player that will see significant time, it's not bad. would you have felt better if the bills paid sammy 5.6 mill this year, have average numbers, and lose him without any compensation next year? i'll take the high pick and the player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Bomb Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 You weren't paying him that this year. The Bills just paid $5.6 million to kick him off the team. And they had to give away a 6th round pick for him to take with him in his gym bag. The Bills are paying Watkins to NOT PLAY for them this year. Smart huh? Wow, so butthurt you don't even mention what they got in return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) 12-13mill? Sammy was slotted to make 690K this year? WR#3 numbers would have been worth it. i meant next year, not this year if that's throwing people off. Edited August 15, 2017 by teef Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Bomb Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) A million yards All the TDs ALL YOUR TD ARE BELONG TO US Edited August 15, 2017 by T-Bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benderbender Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 You weren't paying him that this year. The Bills just paid $5.6 million to kick him off the team. And they had to give away a 6th round pick for him to take with him in his gym bag. The Bills are paying Watkins to NOT PLAY for them this year. Smart huh? As opposed to all the millions we paid him when he DIDNT PLAY due to injury? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreddieJizzle22 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Teef, you should make threads more often. Maybe I'll start posting on here more....it feels so peaceful in your threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWATeam Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 I think he could have easily averaged a triple double Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) Yes. Even from Tyrod. Watkins was on pace for almost 1300 yards receiving in 2015...and that was with a run-first offense in Greg Roman. I think he could go for 14, or 1500 if healthy. i think that's nuts. we've all played the "on pace" game, and it's nothing more than theory. his numbers in 2016 were not looking like that at all. my point is the huge year that some are predicting is just hope with no basis. his experience here has shown otherwise. not that it can't change, but i think it was very unlikely...at least here. Edited August 15, 2017 by teef Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Bomb Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) it feels so peaceful in your threads That can be fixed Edited August 15, 2017 by T-Bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 with the acquisition of a 2nd round pick and a player that will see significant time, it's not bad. would you have felt better if the bills paid sammy 5.6 mill this year, have average numbers, and lose him without any compensation next year? i'll take the high pick and the player. You could have gotten a 3rd round compensatory pick from losing Watkins. He will very likely sign a big money deal with someone. All of a sudden that 2nd round pick doesn't seem like as much seeing that you also gave up a 6th. So a 6th and probably a 3rd for a chance to pick a name out of a hat in the second round next year. The more you go over it, the more insane the trade was. Only thing that justifies it is if Watkins gets hurt or otherwise underperforms drastically. And I wouldn't bet on the drastic underperformance in a contract year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 Teef, you should make threads more often. Maybe I'll start posting on here more....it feels so peaceful in your threads i like to think of myself as very approachable! you know i have nothing to say ever. scott and badol gave me the idea for this thread. both have argued that this was going to be a huge year for sammy, but i just don't know why. You could have gotten a 3rd round compensatory pick from losing Watkins. He will very likely sign a big money deal with someone. All of a sudden that 2nd round pick doesn't seem like as much seeing that you also gave up a 6th. So a 6th and probably a 3rd for a chance to pick a name out of a hat in the second round next year. The more you go over it, the more insane the trade was. Only thing that justifies it is if Watkins gets hurt or otherwise underperforms drastically. And I wouldn't bet on the drastic underperformance in a contract year. may have gotten a 3rd. i'd much rather have the high second. you also consistently leave out a player that will see a lot of time on defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 I think people say that because players tend to have break out seasons when they are in a contract year. This is why I like the trade. If Sammy has a huge season you either have to pay him top dollar or franchise him and he forces your hand. Considering he has had injury problems do you want that financial risk? We ended up getting value for a guy we didn't want to pay even if he had a great season. Now if he gets hurt again Beane looks like the smartest guy in the room. Really a win win. If he had a huge season, which if he stayed healthy he would of, at WORST you franchise & then trade him for a first round pick if you didn't want to pay him. The only way it makes sense to trade him now is if the Bills figured he was not healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreddieJizzle22 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 i think that's nuts. we've all played the "on pace" game, and it's nothing more than theory. his numbers in 2016 were not looking like that at all. my point is the huge year that some are predicting is just hope with no basis. his experience here has shown otherwise. not that it can't change, but i think it was very unlikely. I get that. I was just being hopeful...but Tyrod and Sammy did have a pretty solid connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 I don't really create treads because quite frankly I usually don't have anything that important to say, but this is a topic that has come up a couple of time, and I'm curious about differing opinions. A couple of the posters that are upset about the trade have said that Sammy was going to have a huge year this upcoming year. I'm curious as to why some may think that. I don't agree, but I'm always open to listening to the other side of the coin. Had Sammy stayed with the Bills this year, what kind of numbers do you think he would have put up? I don't think his numbers would have been huge even if he managed to play all 16 games. As good as he could be, without someone who can get the ball to him consistently his numbers are limited. My sole gripe was the trade itself. A 2nd and a meh player for someone the Bills used 2 first round picks for not long ago, and still has tremendous upside, is not getting good value IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Teef, you should make threads more often. Maybe I'll start posting on here more....it feels so peaceful in your threads The quiet before the storm. Don't get too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 I get that. I was just being hopeful...but Tyrod and Sammy did have a pretty solid connection. and i'm not saying you're wrong. it could have happened, and that would have made it a million times easier to give watkins the contract that he likely wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bray Wyatt Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 i think that's nuts. we've all played the "on pace" game, and it's nothing more than theory. his numbers in 2016 were not looking like that at all. my point is the huge year that some are predicting is just hope with no basis. his experience here has shown otherwise. not that it can't change, but i think it was very unlikely...at least here. I think this sums it up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill_with_it Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 You could have gotten a 3rd round compensatory pick from losing Watkins. He will very likely sign a big money deal with someone. All of a sudden that 2nd round pick doesn't seem like as much seeing that you also gave up a 6th. So a 6th and probably a 3rd for a chance to pick a name out of a hat in the second round next year. The more you go over it, the more insane the trade was. Only thing that justifies it is if Watkins gets hurt or otherwise underperforms drastically. And I wouldn't bet on the drastic underperformance in a contract year. A third round comp pick is after every team has selected in the third round. Its essentially a 4th round draft pick.That second round draft pick has the potential to be a top fifteen in the second round. The rams have our receiving corps from last year, donald held out training camp, their star de tore an acl and isnout, and they have a new coachimg staff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 I don't think his numbers would have been huge even if he managed to play all 16 games. As good as he could be, without someone who can get the ball to him consistently his numbers are limited. My sole gripe was the trade itself. A 2nd and a meh player for someone the Bills used 2 first round picks for not long ago, and still has tremendous upside, is not getting good value IMO. i really think a second was the highest we could get for sammy. i could be wrong, but would a gm give up a first for potential. maybe a 2nd and a 4th? i think i'd rather have the player. i don't know much about gains, but it seems like he had a great rookie season and a below average second season...just like darby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 I don't really create treads because quite frankly I usually don't have anything that important to say, but this is a topic that has come up a couple of time, and I'm curious about differing opinions. A couple of the posters that are upset about the trade have said that Sammy was going to have a huge year this upcoming year. I'm curious as to why some may think that. I don't agree, but I'm always open to listening to the other side of the coin. Had Sammy stayed with the Bills this year, what kind of numbers do you think he would have put up? I have no doubt that if he stayed healthy he would have definitely without question put up at least 85+ catches, at least 1300+ yards, and at least 8+ TD's. I actually believe he could have challenged all receiving franchise records as well, he is that good, and he and Taylor connect that well. And that is not based on homerism, that is based on his flat out production with TT when he was healthy. If anyone takes his last 9 games of 2015 when he was healthy finally after the bye week, you can project them out over 16 games and realize not only am I not crazy, but its likely probable. The only question mark was just about staying on the field, not what he can produce. If Goff can even be average, he could possibly still approach those numbers this year. Goff has had some promising looking moments this offseason, but he also had an atrocious practice yesterday and still has those types of days. He threw 3 picks that should have been 5 picks yesterday in practice. So, is Goff gonna be able to be average, or is he going to be just awful is the real question to what Sammy can do this year. The jury is also still out on whether or not the OL rebuild for the Rams has had any progress yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 i really think a second was the highest we could get for sammy. i could be wrong, but would a gm give up a first for potential. maybe a 2nd and a 4th? i think i'd rather have the player. i don't know much about gains, but it seems like he had a great rookie season and a below average second season...just like darby. The Bills used a first, and another first, for potential. But for just a 2nd, I think I'd rather keep the player and give TT every opportunity to prove himself than give Watkins away. But I ain't no GM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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