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Top NFL QB Prospects for 2018


PIZ

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Haven't really broken down any of these QBs for 2018 yet, but I have to wonder why Baker Mayfield doesn't get that much love. All the guy does is produce at an extraordinary level. Is it because he is only 6'1"? Something with arm strength? He puts up huge numbers ever year, gets better every year, and has great mobility too.

 

Those seem to be the two most common knocks on the guy, yeah.

 

I'm not starting from that place though--if I were to rank them now, I think he'd be my QB1

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Biggest issues through 5 games with him are his propensity to stare down targets and walk into sacks. I'll concede that his supporting cast doesn't help at times, counted 21 drops in those games.

 

There was a deep out in the Iowa State game that hung up forever, legitimate concerns about his arm strength.

If we are talking Mason Rudolph, I have to respectively disagree. Mason has a very legit arm.

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It is about percentages; every draft pick is. It is an evaluation of how likely this player is to succeed? That's what scouting is. So you keep using 2014 where 1 out of 4 has worked. There was a 25% chance you were the Raiders and a 75% chance you were the Jags, Browns or Vikings. In 2015 it didn't matter if you were 1 or 2. Next year you may be at 10 picking between 2 guys that graded out higher than Trubisky who went 2. It is a much better value play. The data supports that. You've armed yourself with an extra 1st as well in case you need to get in the top 5 to get your guy. You can swing a deal with the Bears as an example.

 

Your numbers for 2014 are wrong. There were 5 guys that were being looked at. Derek Carr, Jimmy G, and Teddy B are all hits. Teddy B had a terrible injury but the Vikings were happy and his trajectory was positive. At best you need to remove him from the misses. Then you have Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Manziel wouldn't have been drafted in the first if not for Browns owner. Bortles was the guy that a team drafted high and he has a lot of the qualities that people like from 2018 class. Tall, pro-style, etc.

 

Your assertion that a QB will be there at ten that is better than anyone from 2017 I also find speculative. There is nothing to back that up.

Edited by jeffismagic
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If we are talking Mason Rudolph, I have to respectively disagree. Mason has a very legit arm.

 

Perhaps the best way to put it is an issue with velocity control. Drives some throws that he shouldn't, fails to do so on throws that he should. Also think he could do with learning to throw a consistent spiral.

 

Bear in mind, 2015 games. Areas of concern may have cleaned themselves up in '16.

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Perhaps the best way to put it is an issue with velocity control. Drives some throws that he shouldn't, fails to do so on throws that he should. Also think he could do with learning to throw a consistent spiral.

 

Bear in mind, 2015 games. Areas of concern may have cleaned themselves up in '16.

Now that I agree with, the utilization of the arm. I hope, Rudolph continues to develop on those issues. I have seen him throw the ball beyond 20 yards more often than others and wirh great placement. Also have seen very eratic throws and head scratching decisions.

 

Ultimately, his potential makes him one of my favorite QBS in this class. Especially in a way where, if we can't get one of the main guys discussed, he would be a very good secondary option.

 

i.e. if Losman didn't try to drive the ball through a brick wall every throw, he may have been something for us.

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I don't know about that--Daniel never crested 8.2 YPA in college, whereas Mayfield went for 9.4 as a Sophomore and 11.2 as a Junior. Mayfield is also light years ahead of Daniel in terms of protecting the football.

His last season in the Big 12 was 08', I would venture to guess QB stats have inflated quite a bit since then and that conference deserves special mention.

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Your numbers for 2014 are wrong. There were 5 guys that were being looked at. Derek Carr, Jimmy G, and Teddy B are all hits. Teddy B had a terrible injury but the Vikings were happy and his trajectory was positive. At best you need to remove him from the misses. Then you have Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Manziel wouldn't have been drafted in the first if not for Browns owner. Bortles was the guy that a team drafted high and he has a lot of the qualities that people like from 2018 class. Tall, pro-style, etc.

 

Your assertion that a QB will be there at ten that is better than anyone from 2017 I also find speculative. There is nothing to back that up.

Thats fair to include Jimmy G and I agree on Teddy with the injury. We cannot count either of those as hits or misses at this point. Carr is a hit, Manziel is a miss and I'd say Bortles is a miss, 1 out of 3.

 

If 2018 does have 4 guys that are higher rated than Trubisky (which isn't crazy to think), in all likelihood, you will have a shot at 10 at one of them. If not, you will definitely be able to get one at 5 (as an example). You can use your other 1st to get to there.

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His last season in the Big 12 was 08', I would venture to guess QB stats have inflated quite a bit since then and that conference deserves special mention.

 

I'd agree if we were looking at volumetric numbers like passing yards and TDs--one of the reasons I look at YPA is that it is automatically contextual.

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Thats fair to include Jimmy G and I agree on Teddy with the injury. We cannot count either of those as hits or misses at this point. Carr is a hit, Manziel is a miss and I'd say Bortles is a miss, 1 out of 3.

 

If 2018 does have 4 guys that are higher rated than Trubisky (which isn't crazy to think), in all likelihood, you will have a shot at 10 at one of them. If not, you will definitely be able to get one at 5 (as an example). You can use your other 1st to get to there.

I think the Bills could land a Carson Wentz level QB prospect if they are aggressive. But Sean will have to give up 2 1sts plus more.

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I think the Bills could land a Carson Wentz level QB prospect if they are aggressive. But Sean will have to give up 2 1sts plus more.

I agree with this as well. It won't be cheap to move up but they have the ammo to get it done. It may be the 2 1st's a mid round pick in 2018 & 2019 or something. It will depend on where the Bills finish, where KC finishes and which teams are ahead of them. The 49ers and Jets have to be thinking QB. The Browns may too depending on Kessler and Kizer. The Bears should be bad again but won't be going QB. Jax should be a little better IMO but they are another QB candidate.
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I'd agree if we were looking at volumetric numbers like passing yards and TDs--one of the reasons I look at YPA is that it is automatically contextual.

Can you explain why you think that? How could a conference that morphed into a pinball machine not inflate YPA? I'm at work now but I can dig into some conference numbers later and figuere it out. I'm assuming you already have though, based on the declaration that it's automatically contextual.

 

YPA on average has to have risen for QB's in the Big 12 since 06-08, which was the meat of Daniels college career.

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I wonder how many scouts will be attendance here on Sept. 9 to watch Mayfield vs Ohio state. His draft stock will move up or down considerably with that showing given how he played last year in that game. He wasn't awful but he wasn't good either.

It's over hyped but make no mistake it is WAY BETTER than the 17 class. If Darnold plays the same or improves he will go number one over all.

 

We all need to pray that KC goes 0-16.

 

Wow, Michigan is getting a lot of QB prospects.

 

Sounds about right, Kyper has to be right once in awhile.

there is another mccaffrey as well who is a QB. Luke. 2019 recruit. Buckeyes have offered. I won't rest until there is a mccaffrey at every major college program. Edited by YoloinOhio
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Can you explain why you think that? How could a conference that morphed into a pinball machine not inflate YPA? I'm at work now but I can dig into some conference numbers later and figuere it out. I'm assuming you already have though, based on the declaration that it's automatically contextual.

 

YPA on average has to have risen for QB's in the Big 12 since 06-08, which was the meat of Daniels college career.

 

I say that based upon the idea that the vast increase in number of attempts will almost assuredly lead to vast increases in volumetric stats like yardage and TDs, whereas YPA appears to be wholly unrelated to attempts, and is therefore a qualitative indicator (as opposed to the others, which are quantitative).

 

Even as recently as Mahomes you've seen guys who have their entire career YPA range between 8.0 and 8.5, which falls right in line with that of the Chase Daniels of their respective day. Case-in-point: the only other passer in the Big 12 that had a YPA greater than 9.0 in 2016 was Mason Rudolph, who came in at 9.1. After that, you get to Mahomes, who had a YPA of 8.5, and Skyler Howard, who managed 8.2. The others all fell below 8.0.

Edited by thebandit27
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Your numbers for 2014 are wrong. There were 5 guys that were being looked at. Derek Carr, Jimmy G, and Teddy B are all hits. Teddy B had a terrible injury but the Vikings were happy and his trajectory was positive. At best you need to remove him from the misses. Then you have Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Manziel wouldn't have been drafted in the first if not for Browns owner. Bortles was the guy that a team drafted high and he has a lot of the qualities that people like from 2018 class. Tall, pro-style, etc.

 

Your assertion that a QB will be there at ten that is better than anyone from 2017 I also find speculative. There is nothing to back that up.

I generally agree with your post but I think you are wrong about the 2014 QB class in that I'd rate only 1 of the 5 QBs you named as a "hit". Only Carr has developed into a decent starter. That's not saying he's a franchise QB yet but he's probably worth more than the 2nd round pick the Raiders spent to get him, something that can't be said all that often about QBs taken in the first two rounds of the draft -- or the other QBs in his draft class.

 

Bortles regressed badly last season, something that's an ominous sign. It suggests that he hit his peak back as a sophomore and isn't going to improve significantly, so he's probably done. The only QB since the merger who started out well, regressed, and then continued on to have a stellar career was Drew Brees. Count Bortles as a miss IMO.

 

Bridgewater is probably finished because of his injury, but even before that, his game had serious deficiencies, particularly his apparent unwillingess to go long. Maybe he would have overcome that as Tannehill seems to have done, but it's likely we'll never know. I hate to count him as a miss but he's a question mark at best.

 

Garoppolo hasn't proved squat yet. He started 4 or 5 games in his NFL career. If he was that good, Brady would have had a harder time getting his job back or maybe not even gotten it back at all. Remember, it was Brady who took over for starter/Pro Bowler Drew Bledsoe in 2001 and never looked back. The chances are that Garoppolo is closer to Brock Osweiler than to Tom Brady. Another question mark but likely a miss.

 

Manziel shouldn't have been drafted in the first round at all ... and probably not until the third round at best if not the third day of the draft. The red flags on him were well known. A big miss.

 

Generally speaking, over the years, drafts have yielded about 1 decent starting QB. Occasionally, 2 decent starters will emerge (2008) and sometimes all of them will be duds (2007 and 2013). Usually there will be 1 or 2 decent backups/low quallity starters who come out of the later rounds, although often first rounders will stick around as mediocre starters and then backups for a while. This seems to hold true whether there's 1 or 2 QBs taken in the first round or 4.

 

The best QB draft EVER was 1983: Elway, Kelly, and Marino were all HOFers and Ken O'Brien was a decent starter for several years. Still, KC took Todd Blackledge before Kelly and NE took Tony Eason before Marino. The next best class was 2004 when Eli Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger -- all likely HOFers or considered for HOF -- were taken in the first round. Of course, so was JP Losman. Matt Schaub, taken in the 4th round, started out as a useful backup and had a couple of years as a decent starter.

 

2012 seems to have been the best QB class since 2004. It's yielded one definitely special QB in Russell Wilson, who was not even taken in the first round. Andrew Luck has definitely been successful, although it seems that he's been a bit of a disappointment recently as he's not improved his game as much as one would hope. He was expected to quickly progress to the level of Brees, Brady, and Roethlisberger, but he doesn't seem to have made the strides he needs to reach that level; he still makes a lot of mistakes that he made as a rookie/sophomore. Is it coaching, maybe? Still, most teams would welcome him to their roster if they got the chance. Ryan Tannehill has also become at least a decent starter, perhaps even more, after a rocky start, and Kirk Cousins has come out of nowhere (the 4th round actually) to be another decent starter.

 

It really doesn't matter how these kids are rated by draft gurus or even by organizations. It matters how they adapt and play the pro game, so if 5 QBs are rated higher in 2018 than any of the guys taken in 2017's first round, it means squat unless they turn out to be successful NFL QBs.

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Believe it or not, I kind of think Speight might be pretty good. Then again I heard he might not even start this year.

 

 

Really? Who would start over him? Speight is a big kid with good arm, he was ok last yr interesting to see if he improves.

I know that Michigan is very high on Brandon Peters, but he is still only a Freshman, and Speight had a good year in 2016.

 

Harbaugh loves to add to the drama by having his open competitions, but Speight would have to fall on his face to not be this year's starter.

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SoTier,

 

Sound description of the situation, but it leaves me wondering if there is any prescriptive advice hidden in the description. Or is it mainly a matter of chance?

My view is that we likely do not have a franchise qb on the roster. I expect us to draft a qb early unless someone we have now unexpectedly emerges as a franchise qb.

I surmise there must be some rational basis for determining which highly rated qbs in 2018 are more likely to achieve NFL success.

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I know that Michigan is very high on Brandon Peters, but he is still only a Freshman, and Speight had a good year in 2016.

 

Harbaugh loves to add to the drama by having his open competitions, but Speight would have to fall on his face to not be this year's starter.

Speight looked promising to me. The injury set him back a bit last year of course but he really seems like a tough, smart kid. Harbaugh will have him prepared for the NFL too with that system. They are going to start cranking out QBs imo. Edited by YoloinOhio
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SoTier,

 

Sound description of the situation, but it leaves me wondering if there is any prescriptive advice hidden in the description. Or is it mainly a matter of chance?

My view is that we likely do not have a franchise qb on the roster. I expect us to draft a qb early unless someone we have now unexpectedly emerges as a franchise qb.

I surmise there must be some rational basis for determining which highly rated qbs in 2018 are more likely to achieve NFL success.

 

 

My advice would be to not follow Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Greg Cossell, or any of the standard talking heads. You want to find someone with great NFL traits who also played well and was productive in college. If guys aren't getting it done in college, they don't usually get it at the next level. You also don't draft a guy who played well in college if he is lacking the tools to go up a level.

 

The best bet for finding a top QB would be to have a John Gruden, Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, or Jim Bob Cooter on your staff. Since the Bills don't I would pay John Gruden 1 million dollars to watch the tape he watches anyway and to give me his QB notes off the record.

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his little brother Dylan is a freshman QB at UM

 

 

Wow, Michigan is getting a lot of QB prospects.

Yes, the amount of QB prospects going to Michigan is ridiculous. There's another big QB recruit they are trying to land in 2018.

 

There is no way all of these QB's will get a chance to play there. Lots of transfers will have to occur.

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My advice would be to not follow Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Greg Cossell, or any of the standard talking heads. You want to find someone with great NFL traits who also played well and was productive in college. If guys aren't getting it done in college, they don't usually get it at the next level. You also don't draft a guy who played well in college if he is lacking the tools to go up a level.

 

The best bet for finding a top QB would be to have a John Gruden, Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, or Jim Bob Cooter on your staff. Since the Bills don't I would pay John Gruden 1 million dollars to watch the tape he watches anyway and to give me his QB notes off the record.

Well, despite the continual ribbing you get from some posters, I think your insight on qbs is good. I surmise you make a distinction between John Gruden on ESPN and off-camera? He seems to like pretty much everyone on his show.

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Yes, the amount of QB prospects going to Michigan is ridiculous. There's another big QB recruit they are trying to land in 2018.

 

There is no way all of these QB's will get a chance to play there. Lots of transfers will have to occur.

transfers are inevitable. It's like buying a ticket to fly United when you commit to play at these huge programs.
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Well, despite the continual ribbing you get from some posters, I think your insight on qbs is good. I surmise you make a distinction between John Gruden on ESPN and off-camera? He seems to like pretty much everyone on his show.

 

Yeah, on the show he has to fluff everyone. But the dude is a QB genius in real life. I really think I would pay him as a QB draft consultant. Bills have no one like him scouting or on staff that I am aware of.

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SoTier,

 

Sound description of the situation, but it leaves me wondering if there is any prescriptive advice hidden in the description. Or is it mainly a matter of chance?

My view is that we likely do not have a franchise qb on the roster. I expect us to draft a qb early unless someone we have now unexpectedly emerges as a franchise qb.

I surmise there must be some rational basis for determining which highly rated qbs in 2018 are more likely to achieve NFL success.

I don't know that there's any "prescription" for finding a good/great QB. Even in truly great QB crops, teams missed, and in mediocre years, teams hit. My thought is that maybe teams should look more at the individual's "intangibles" like leadership and attitude rather than just arm and size, but that's obviously not enough. If I had any real answers, I wouldn't be posting here. I'd be sharing my expertise with the Bills! :D

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Yeah, on the show he has to fluff everyone. But the dude is a QB genius in real life. I really think I would pay him as a QB draft consultant. Bills have no one like him scouting or on staff that I am aware of.

I like Gruden as an evaluator but he makes $6.5M a year from ESPN. I'd bet anything that contract precludes him from working with any teams.
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Yeah, on the show he has to fluff everyone. But the dude is a QB genius in real life. I really think I would pay him as a QB draft consultant. Bills have no one like him scouting or on staff that I am aware of.

I wonder if you could do that or if it would conflict with his ESPN contract.

I like Gruden as an evaluator but he makes $6.5M a year from ESPN. I'd bet anything that contract precludes him from working with any teams.

Ah, I posted before reading your comment.

I don't know that there's any "prescription" for finding a good/great QB. Even in truly great QB crops, teams missed, and in mediocre years, teams hit. My thought is that maybe teams should look more at the individual's "intangibles" like leadership and attitude rather than just arm and size, but that's obviously not enough. If I had any real answers, I wouldn't be posting here. I'd be sharing my expertise with the Bills! :D

Okay, so I'm down to the old eight ball or John Gruden. Appreciate your thoughts.

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I wonder if you could do that or if it would conflict with his ESPN contract.

Ah, I posted before reading your comment.

Okay, so I'm down to the old eight ball or John Gruden. Appreciate your thoughts.

 

Concept is the same. I wanted to hire Kyle Shanahan or Jim Bob Cooter when Bills were doing coaching search because of the QB guru stuff. When you get get your hands on one it makes the odds of finding your next QB much nicer.

 

Since we don't have one on staff, Bills need to hire a QB Czar. Find the best QB scout on the market. Let them prove it with last 5 draft boards on QB's. Then let them get to work. Pay them $$$. It's the most important position on the field and Pegula could use his money to really get things going.

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I wonder how many scouts will be attendance here on Sept. 9 to watch Mayfield vs Ohio state. His draft stock will move up or down considerably with that showing given how he played last year in that game. He wasn't awful but he wasn't good either.

there is another mccaffrey as well who is a QB. Luke. 2019 recruit. Buckeyes have offered. I won't rest until there is a mccaffrey at every major college program.

Yep. If Mayfield wants to make a real impression to the pro scouts, he will have to shine against Ohio State.

 

Last years game he was so-so, and that was in Norman. Far more pressure with the game being in Columbus this year.

 

Love your McCaffrey comment. Are the McCaffrey's going to be the new "First Family" of the NFL?

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Concept is the same. I wanted to hire Kyle Shanahan or Jim Bob Cooter when Bills were doing coaching search because of the QB guru stuff. When you get get your hands on one it makes the odds of finding your next QB much nicer.

 

Since we don't have one on staff, Bills need to hire a QB Czar. Find the best QB scout on the market. Let them prove it with last 5 draft boards on QB's. Then let them get to work. Pay them $$$. It's the most important position on the field and Pegula could use his money to really get things going.

Any chance any of these qb gurus who work with players are good scouts? If anybody were really this good, you'd think they already would be on someone's staff -- unless the position is just inherently very hard to predict.

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Any chance any of these qb gurus who work with players are good scouts? If anybody were really this good, you'd think they already would be on someone's staff -- unless the position is just inherently very hard to predict.

They are on staff but many of them were OC's this year. The other route is to conduct a search for the top QB scout. Maybe there is a guy in Oakland who had Carr #1 on his QB board.

 

It's worth looking for someone with QB expertise because I don't trust anyone in the Bills to have that QB scouting acumen.

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They are on staff but many of them were OC's this year. The other route is to conduct a search for the top QB scout. Maybe there is a guy in Oakland who had Carr #1 on his QB board.

 

It's worth looking for someone with QB expertise because I don't trust anyone in the Bills to have that QB scouting acumen.

I hope the process includes some innovative thinking along these lines. Supposedly we are revamping the scouting department from scratch, so there ought to be consideration for a qb expert.

Edited by Dr. Who
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I hope the process includes some innovative thinking along these lines. Supposedly we are revamping the scouting department from scratch, so there ought to be consideration for a qb expert.

Bills are looking for scouts as we speak. Why not get the best QB scout in the NFL and give him a cool title and triple his salary?

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No, it's not. It's about scouting the prospects and drafting a very good QB prospect if they are available. If Raiders pass on Carr how does it help them that 2015 is better?

 

If you want a Jameis Winston you need to finish last.

 

No Kansas City needs to finish last.

 

Haven't really broken down any of these QBs for 2018 yet, but I have to wonder why Baker Mayfield doesn't get that much love. All the guy does is produce at an extraordinary level. Is it because he is only 6'1"? Something with arm strength? He puts up huge numbers ever year, gets better every year, and has great mobility too.

 

Spread offense

Thats fair to include Jimmy G and I agree on Teddy with the injury. We cannot count either of those as hits or misses at this point. Carr is a hit, Manziel is a miss and I'd say Bortles is a miss, 1 out of 3.

If 2018 does have 4 guys that are higher rated than Trubisky (which isn't crazy to think), in all likelihood, you will have a shot at 10 at one of them. If not, you will definitely be able to get one at 5 (as an example). You can use your other 1st to get to there.

Just wasting your time Kirby.

I wonder how many scouts will be attendance here on Sept. 9 to watch Mayfield vs Ohio state. His draft stock will move up or down considerably with that showing given how he played last year in that game. He wasn't awful but he wasn't good either.there is another mccaffrey as well who is a QB. Luke. 2019 recruit. Buckeyes have offered. I won't rest until there is a mccaffrey at every major college program.

That would be cool to see the brothers face off against each other with one being at Michigan and the other being at Ohio St.

My advice would be to not follow Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Greg Cossell, or any of the standard talking heads. You want to find someone with great NFL traits who also played well and was productive in college. If guys aren't getting it done in college, they don't usually get it at the next level. You also don't draft a guy who played well in college if he is lacking the tools to go up a level.

 

The best bet for finding a top QB would be to have a John Gruden, Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, or Jim Bob Cooter on your staff. Since the Bills don't I would pay John Gruden 1 million dollars to watch the tape he watches anyway and to give me his QB notes off the record.

Gruden loves every QB

Yes, the amount of QB prospects going to Michigan is ridiculous. There's another big QB recruit they are trying to land in 2018.

 

There is no way all of these QB's will get a chance to play there. Lots of transfers will have to occur.

The new QB U.

Edited by Buffalo Barbarian
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UCLA QB Josh Rosen is a pure passer. Beautiful motion, full field vision and plenty of arm… https://www.instagram.com/p/BUIMst_l1DB/

 

 

Yes, he has incredible arm talent. When he got on campus it was very apparent.

 

And if you aren't sure, ask him. He even gave himself a nickname, The Rosen One.

 

 

The Rosen One @JChosen3

UCLA's Golden Boy. The Rosen One. J-Chosen.

https://twitter.com/JChosen3/status/657343496198729728

Edited by jeffismagic
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