Dorkington Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 One thing that Tasker said late in the year stuck with me, "you can win with him but don't win because of him." That's a very concise way of putting it. I wish there was a poll attached to this discussion 1) Team carrying QB or bust, making the playoffs doesn't matter if you aren't likely to win the Superbowl 2) Make the playoffs anyway you can, sometimes a good defense can carry a mediocre QB to Superbowl victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 how in any way is he raising the white flag he called you out on your agenda you do in fact have a agenda Unbelievable stuff John. You and Scotty are the fanboys. Chan provided numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I love that I can change some names around, and a post that got a "no ****!" became "wow what an agenda." Laughable. Let's get some brain cells. If you agree with the post because it says "Tyrod" and don't when it says "Fitzpatrick," you're the one with an agenda. agenda..and you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLFan Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 (edited) If they don't cut him in next 2 weeks, Bills are absolutely committing to Taylor as the starter for the next 2 years. $30m for 1 year is absurd to even the most ardent Tyrod supporter.It's $27.5 cash for 2017, but the cap hit is just under $16 m. Very cheap for a starting QB. Cap hit next year of just under $17 m. Again, cheap. No reason at all why the Bills cannot draft as many rookie QBs as they want with so little committed to the starting QB. If they exercise the deal, it is a minimum of two years, as the dead money to cut him after this year is something like $27m. If they cut him after 2018, still 10m but manageable when they spread it out. I am not sure why anyone cares about the cash. Only cap hit matters, and Tyrod is cheap for his level of performance, at the very least in line. Personally, I think they should keep him and go all in on a rookie next year. Remain competitive this year and next, fix the defense. This team does not need a ground up rebuild, and Taylor's contract will still allow them to fix the holes they have. Edited February 21, 2017 by MDFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 agenda..and you know it If you agree with the post because it says "Tyrod" and don't when it says "Fitzpatrick," you're the one with an agenda. That's a very concise way of putting it. I wish there was a poll attached to this discussion 1) Team carrying QB or bust, making the playoffs doesn't matter if you aren't likely to win the Superbowl 2) Make the playoffs anyway you can, sometimes a good defense can carry a mediocre QB to Superbowl victory Dork, to the second point, do we have a "good" defense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Miner Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 (edited) The conversation is "he's average what do we do?"As well as how much should you pay for average, and how long should you tie up that cap space on average? It's not as cut and dry most here make it. A good argument can be made for several scenarios. It's even harder to determine the answer when we don't have a very specific vision of what type of offense the team is really wanting to run. Edited February 21, 2017 by Joe Miner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 It's $27.5 cash for 2017, but the cap hit is just under $16 m. Very cheap for a starting QB. Cap hit next year of just under $17 m. Again, cheap. No reason at all why the Bills cannot draft as many rookie QBs as they want with so little committed to the starting QB. If they exercise the deal, it is a minimum of two years, as the dead money to cut him after this year is something like $27m. If they cut him after 2018, still 10m but manageable when they spread it out. I am not sure why anyone cares about the cash. Only cap hit matters, and Tyrod is cheap for his level of performance, at the very least in line. Personally, I think they should keep him and go all in on a rookie next year. Remain comepetieve this year and next, fix the defense. This team does not need a ground up rebuild, and Taylor's contract will still allow them to fix the holes they have. The reason is the cash guarantees a multi-year commitment. If we get rid of him after 1 - were left with a Romo-like cap hit as we have the 3.25 guaranteed base (which we might get back in cash but not cap - i don't know TBH), plus the remaining 12.4 from the option bonus, and another 1.5 in roster bonuses. We could split it over 2 years if we decide to cut him - but its like 10 mil a year in dead cap for a team that's tight. Makes him hard to trade after 1 year because we have to eat the whole hit in 1 year (again not sure who takes on the cap for the guaranteed base in the trade scenario). If we keep him - id say don't necessarily draft anyone. You're going with Tyrod, and you're developing Cardale. If neither seems viable in 2018 - you can draft someone and you either live with Tyrod for a year, cut him for future cap savings (or to defer half to the next year) or see if he has value on the trade market (he will - his base salaries are reasonable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Like A Mofo Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Translation: This franchise is absolutely addicted to 7-9 win seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 That's a very concise way of putting it. I wish there was a poll attached to this discussion 1) Team carrying QB or bust, making the playoffs doesn't matter if you aren't likely to win the Superbowl 2) Make the playoffs anyway you can, sometimes a good defense can carry a mediocre QB to Superbowl victory Ha ha, no need for a poll, I think that we already know every vote on each side. It really isn't more complicated than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Translation: This franchise is absolutely addicted to 7-9 win seasons Exactly. This is pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 As well as how much should you pay for average, and how long should you tie up that cap space on average? It's not as cut and dry most here make it. A good argument can be made for several scenarios. It's even harder to determine the answer when we don't have a very specific vision of what type of offense the team is really wanting to run. I think that's fair. That's already been set with him though. Roughly $31M guaranteed is the cost. It's more of a structure thing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRebound Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 It's $27.5 cash for 2017, but the cap hit is just under $16 m. Very cheap for a starting QB. Cap hit next year of just under $17 m. Again, cheap. No reason at all why the Bills cannot draft as many rookie QBs as they want with so little committed to the starting QB. If they exercise the deal, it is a minimum of two years, as the dead money to cut him after this year is something like $27m. If they cut him after 2018, still 10m but manageable when they spread it out. I am not sure why anyone cares about the cash. Only cap hit matters, and Tyrod is cheap for his level of performance, at the very least in line. Personally, I think they should keep him and go all in on a rookie next year. Remain competitive this year and next, fix the defense. This team does not need a ground up rebuild, and Taylor's contract will still allow them to fix the holes they have. Winning organizations don't operate this way. If he's not the long term answer and the Bills are still using high draft picks on QB's, you don't commit that kind of money to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Winning organizations don't operate this way. If he's not the long term answer and the Bills are still using high draft picks on QB's, you don't commit that kind of money to him. Amen. Turn the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Winning organizations don't operate this way. If he's not the long term answer and the Bills are still using high draft picks on QB's, you don't commit that kind of money to him. cinci is doing it miami is doing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I think there are examples of both ways. If you have an amazing QB it makes your job a lot easier - that is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumbalaya Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Restructure TT, address bigger concerns at WR, S, CB, LB, TE, & RT through draft and FA. Resign Groy & Gillislee. Hope Cardale grows as a QB. Draft a QB next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 He's even better if you take everyone's rushing TDs and fumbles into account. He's a very good game manager, imo. Again, not good enough to carry a bad defense to the post season, but he's also not likely to lose a game due to his own mistakes. If our goal is to make the playoffs, we could do *a lot* worse. Fans love to blame the loss on an interception or fumble but not the missed read, blown opportunity to audible, not getting the ball out on time etc... Those are all mistakes that lose games. He does some better than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 That's a very concise way of putting it. I wish there was a poll attached to this discussion 1) Team carrying QB or bust, making the playoffs doesn't matter if you aren't likely to win the Superbowl 2) Make the playoffs anyway you can, sometimes a good defense can carry a mediocre QB to Superbowl victory With regards to your 2 here, isn't it more like a great defense (maybe all-time) can carry a mediocre QB to a Super Bowl victory? Because I would argue that it's statistically just as likely to hit on a franchise QB in the draft as it is to build one of those defenses, and ultimately more predictive of a team's long term success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 (edited) I know this is futile, but I was generally curious, given how many seem to think Tyrod is incapable of success. I'm looking at both Tyrod's 2016 season and his 'Bills career' (some argue Tyrod got worse, some argue Tyrod's weapons were missing time, so lets just do both). Doing per attempt/game/percentage stats due to various injuries, suspensions, coaching schemes, etc. across the league. Completion percentage: 2016: Tyrod 61.7% - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind Career: Tyrod 62.6% - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind TD percentage: 2016: Tyrod 3.9% - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind Career: Tyrod 4.5% - 7 Playoff QBs ahead/5 Playoff QBs behind INT percentage: 2016: Tyrod 1.4% - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind Career: Tyrod 1.5% - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind Yards per game: 2016: Tyrod 201.5 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind Career: Tyrod 208.9 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind Net Yards/Attempt: 2016: Tyrod 5.92 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind Career: Tyrod 6.32 - 10 Playoff QBs ahead/2 Playoff QBs behind Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt (takes into account TDs/INTs): 2016: Tyrod 6.07 - 10 Playoff QBs ahead/2 Playoff QBs behind Career: Tyrod 6.55 - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind QB Rating: 2016: Tyrod 89.7 - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind Career: Tyrod 94.2 - 6 Playoff QBs ahead/6 Playoff QBs behind ESPN QBR 2016: Tyrod 68.2 - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind Career: Tyrod ~68 - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind It should be noted in all of this, though, is that Tyrod is significantly more productive than other QBs on the ground, comparing his numbers to the playoff QBs there, he comes out ahead in almost every metric. Kinda wonder if adding passing + rushing for the playoff QBs and Tyrod, if there would be a significant change in rankings. (Example in total yards per game, it'd move Tyrod up at least a couple spots, just glancing at things. Same with TD%, and if you include fumbles, it'd further cement him near the top since other QBs have a bigger fumbling problem) Conclusion: Tyrod can be a QB of a playoff caliber team, but he's not good enough to carry a team to the playoffs. If the Bills keep Tyrod, they *need* to improve on defense, to have anything close to a chance. (which anyone who actually watches games could have told you) Nicely done- he is an average NFL QB. If this organization is really stupid enough to throw that away without a solution back themselves into a corner needing to (1) draft a total unknown in an unspectacular year with a high pick they throw to the wolves (2) bank on cardale who could be anything From Steve Young to Thad Lewis (3) expecting some savior free agent discard expendable to another franchise in a QB starved league Well then it should be a fantastic exclamation point on a 20 year playoff drought. Edited February 21, 2017 by Over 28 years of fanhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Fans love to blame the loss on an interception or fumble but not the missed read, blown opportunity to audible, not getting the ball out on time etc... Those are all mistakes that lose games. He does some better than others. You make a great point. What stats don't measure are lost opportunities. For example, on a second read on a passing play the receiver could be open for a long gain but instead he gets restless and runs for a first down. The stats on that play would indicate that he gained a first down and the running stats would be inflated. The reality is that he missed an opportunity to make a big play that could affect the outcome of a game. Going through the box score the positive stats would not indicate him faltering when the big play was there to be had. When the coaches and front office watch the game tape they come away with a much different assessment of how the qb performed compared to the casual observer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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