Bills look more likely to keep TT - working on restructure

[Bill from NYC]

I know this is futile, but I was generally curious, given how many seem to think Tyrod is incapable of success.

 

I'm looking at both Tyrod's 2016 season and his 'Bills career' (some argue Tyrod got worse, some argue Tyrod's weapons were missing time, so lets just do both). Doing per attempt/game/percentage stats due to various injuries, suspensions, coaching schemes, etc. across the league.

 

Completion percentage:

2016: Tyrod 61.7% - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

Career: Tyrod 62.6% - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

 

TD percentage:

2016: Tyrod 3.9% - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 4.5% - 7 Playoff QBs ahead/5 Playoff QBs behind

 

INT percentage:

2016: Tyrod 1.4% - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 1.5% - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

 

Yards per game:

2016: Tyrod 201.5 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

Career: Tyrod 208.9 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

 

Net Yards/Attempt:

2016: Tyrod 5.92 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

Career: Tyrod 6.32 - 10 Playoff QBs ahead/2 Playoff QBs behind

 

Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt (takes into account TDs/INTs):

2016: Tyrod 6.07 - 10 Playoff QBs ahead/2 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 6.07 - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind

 

QB Rating:

2016: Tyrod 89.7 - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 94.2 - 6 Playoff QBs ahead/6 Playoff QBs behind

 

ESPN QBR

2016: Tyrod 68.2 - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod ~68 - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

 

It should be noted in all of this, though, is that Tyrod is significantly more productive than other QBs on the ground, comparing his numbers to the playoff QBs there, he comes out ahead in almost every metric. Kinda wonder if adding passing + rushing for the playoff QBs and Tyrod, if there would be a significant change in rankings. (Example in total yards per game, it'd move Tyrod up at least a couple spots, just glancing at things. Same with TD%, and if you include fumbles, it'd further cement him near the top since other QBs have a bigger fumbling problem)

 

Conclusion: Tyrod can be a QB of a playoff caliber team, but he's not good enough to carry a team to the playoffs. If the Bills keep Tyrod, they *need* to improve on defense, to have anything close to a chance. (which anyone who actually watches games could have told you)

Very nice job, thank you for this.

[YoloinOhio]

 

Wasn't Kromer exposed in Chicago as a leak?

 

 

Excellent Analysis. I'd love to see the numbers with rushing totals added if you find the time. I think it would move him into the middle of the pack but not sure.

Kromer was the one who told the media that Cutler sucked. He was the "unnamed source" within the org. Not sure is thats a "leak" or just the road less filtered Edited February 21, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[FireChan]

I know this is futile, but I was generally curious, given how many seem to think Tyrod is incapable of success.

 

I'm looking at both Tyrod's 2016 season and his 'Bills career' (some argue Tyrod got worse, some argue Tyrod's weapons were missing time, so lets just do both). Doing per attempt/game/percentage stats due to various injuries, suspensions, coaching schemes, etc. across the league.

 

Completion percentage:

2016: Tyrod 61.7% - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

Career: Tyrod 62.6% - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

 

TD percentage:

2016: Tyrod 3.9% - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 4.5% - 7 Playoff QBs ahead/5 Playoff QBs behind

 

INT percentage:

2016: Tyrod 1.4% - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 1.5% - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

 

Yards per game:

2016: Tyrod 201.5 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

Career: Tyrod 208.9 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

 

Net Yards/Attempt:

2016: Tyrod 5.92 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

Career: Tyrod 6.32 - 10 Playoff QBs ahead/2 Playoff QBs behind

 

Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt (takes into account TDs/INTs):

2016: Tyrod 6.07 - 10 Playoff QBs ahead/2 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 6.07 - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind

 

QB Rating:

2016: Tyrod 89.7 - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 94.2 - 6 Playoff QBs ahead/6 Playoff QBs behind

 

ESPN QBR

2016: Tyrod 68.2 - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod ~68 - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

 

It should be noted in all of this, though, is that Tyrod is significantly more productive than other QBs on the ground, comparing his numbers to the playoff QBs there, he comes out ahead in almost every metric. Kinda wonder if adding passing + rushing for the playoff QBs and Tyrod, if there would be a significant change in rankings. (Example in total yards per game, it'd move Tyrod up at least a couple spots, just glancing at things. Same with TD%, and if you include fumbles, it'd further cement him near the top since other QBs have a bigger fumbling problem)

 

Conclusion: Tyrod can be a QB of a playoff caliber team, but he's not good enough to carry a team to the playoffs. If the Bills keep Tyrod, they *need* to improve on defense, to have anything close to a chance. (which anyone who actually watches games could have told you)

You're missing sack% as well.

 

I have to ask, are there any playoff QB's who rank 11th or worse in as many categories as TT?

[Dorkington]

 

Wasn't Kromer exposed in Chicago as a leak?

 

 

Excellent Analysis. I'd love to see the numbers with rushing totals added if you find the time. I think it would move him into the middle of the pack but not sure.

I probably won't get to it, since I'm feeling lazy

 

Frankly this argument just boils down to

 

One side: A QB capable of carrying a team to the playoffs, anything else is a waste of time

Other side: Since finding the above is exceedingly difficult, might as well take a guy who is good enough to be a playoff caliber QB on a good all around team.

[Maury Ballstein]

I know this is futile, but I was generally curious, given how many seem to think Tyrod is incapable of success.

 

I'm looking at both Tyrod's 2016 season and his 'Bills career' (some argue Tyrod got worse, some argue Tyrod's weapons were missing time, so lets just do both). Doing per attempt/game/percentage stats due to various injuries, suspensions, coaching schemes, etc. across the league.

 

Completion percentage:

2016: Tyrod 61.7% - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

Career: Tyrod 62.6% - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

 

TD percentage:

2016: Tyrod 3.9% - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 4.5% - 7 Playoff QBs ahead/5 Playoff QBs behind

 

INT percentage:

2016: Tyrod 1.4% - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 1.5% - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

 

Yards per game:

2016: Tyrod 201.5 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

Career: Tyrod 208.9 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

 

Net Yards/Attempt:

2016: Tyrod 5.92 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

Career: Tyrod 6.32 - 10 Playoff QBs ahead/2 Playoff QBs behind

 

Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt (takes into account TDs/INTs):

2016: Tyrod 6.07 - 10 Playoff QBs ahead/2 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 6.07 - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind

 

QB Rating:

2016: Tyrod 89.7 - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod 94.2 - 6 Playoff QBs ahead/6 Playoff QBs behind

 

ESPN QBR

2016: Tyrod 68.2 - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

Career: Tyrod ~68 - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind

 

It should be noted in all of this, though, is that Tyrod is significantly more productive than other QBs on the ground, comparing his numbers to the playoff QBs there, he comes out ahead in almost every metric. Kinda wonder if adding passing + rushing for the playoff QBs and Tyrod, if there would be a significant change in rankings. (Example in total yards per game, it'd move Tyrod up at least a couple spots, just glancing at things. Same with TD%, and if you include fumbles, it'd further cement him near the top since other QBs have a bigger fumbling problem)

 

Conclusion: Tyrod can be a QB of a playoff caliber team, but he's not good enough to carry a team to the playoffs. If the Bills keep Tyrod, they *need* to improve on defense, to have anything close to a chance. (which anyone who actually watches games could have told you)

So in conclusion "should he stay or should he go now?"

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Whatever. They still need to draft a quarterback high or find a good free agent, until they get it right.

[Dorkington]

You're missing sack% as well.

 

I have to ask, are there any playoff QB's who rank 11th or worse in as many categories as TT?

Sack% comes into play with the ANY/A stat, fwiw. Also, while Tyrod has a lot of sacks on paper, his yards lost per sack is pretty minimal compared to others due to some of the sacks happening with him trying to make yards when not seeing what he wants to see downfield (for better or worse)

Example:

Tyrod 42 sacks for 192 yards lost - 4.5y/s

Ryan 37 sacks for 235 yards lost - 6.35y/s

Wilson 41 sacks for 293 yards lost - 7.15y/s

 

So, con is taking so many sacks, obviously... but a pro is, his athleticism helps minimize some of the loss compared to some QBs.

 

As far as your other question, I'd assume it'd roughly line up with his rankings above... in that most playoff QBs are closer to top 11, with a few outsiders (ie middle of the road QBs with strong all around teams), but I'd have to take a longer look to fully answer your question.

So in conclusion "should he stay or should he go now?"

 

 

I probably won't get to it, since I'm feeling lazy

 

Frankly this argument just boils down to

 

One side: A QB capable of carrying a team to the playoffs, anything else is a waste of time

Other side: Since finding the above is exceedingly difficult, might as well take a guy who is good enough to be a playoff caliber QB on a good all around team.

I think it fully depends on where you stand on the bolded.

 

If your goal is team carrying QB or bust, then it doesn't matter if you keep him or not, because he's not that. If your goal is to make the playoffs, you could do a lot worse than Tyrod, especially if we have confidence we can improve the defense. If your goal is the Superbowl, the defense is going to have to be near elite.

[FireChan]

The rebuttal:

 

Completion percentage:
2016: Tyrod 61.7% - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind
Career: Fitzpatrick 59.7% - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind

TD percentage:
2016: Tyrod 3.9% - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind
Career: Fitzpatrick 4.3% - 7 Playoff QBs ahead/5 Playoff QBs behind

INT percentage:
2016: Tyrod 1.4% - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind
Career: Fitzpatrick 3.4%

Yards per game:
2016: Tyrod 201.5 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind
Career: Fitzpatrick 203.8

Net Yards/Attempt:
2016: Tyrod 5.92 - 11 Playoff QBs ahead/1 Playoff QB behind
Career: Fitzpatrick 6.02

 

Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt (takes into account TDs/INTs):
2016: Tyrod 6.07 - 10 Playoff QBs ahead/2 Playoff QBs behind
Career: Fitzpatrick 5.37

QB Rating:
2016: Tyrod 89.7 - 9 Playoff QBs ahead/3 Playoff QBs behind
Career: Fitzpatrick 79.7

ESPN QBR
2016: Tyrod 68.2 - 5 Playoff QBs ahead/7 Playoff QBs behind
Career: Fitzpatrick ?

 

Anyone wanna seriously argue Fitzy is good enough? He beats TT in some categories and doesn't in others.

Edited February 21, 2017 by FireChan

[Dorkington]

Top 11 QB rankings and team results:

 

Completion %

8 out of the top 11 have a winning percentage

7 out of the top 11 made the playoffs

 

TD%

9 out of the top 11 have a winning percentage

7 out of the top 11 made the playoffs

 

INT%

7 out of the top 11 have a winning percentage

7 out of the top 11 made the playoffs

 

ANY/A

10 out of the top 11 have a winning percentage

7 out of the top 11 made the playoffs

 

Sack % (just for FC )

7 out of the top 11 have a winning percentage

5 out of the top 11 made the playoffs

[Maury Ballstein]

No ****.

Lol. Not directed at you but it's absolutely ridiculous to think he can't lead a team to the playoffs.

It's more ridiculous thinking its a tank if he's not retained.

[Dorkington]

Anyone wanna seriously argue Fitzy is good enough? He beats TT in some categories and doesn't in others.

I'd argue that both Tyrod and Fitzpatrick are in that larger middle of the pack starting QB category. Tyrod is certainly better at taking care of the ball. Fitzpatrick is better at making decisions quickly (for better or worse). Tyrod has a better deep ball. Fitzpatrick can make the quick/read throw.

 

The only two years that Fitzpatrick had an average or better defense, his team's total record in games he played was 16-12, which isn't terrible at all. Obviously he's not good enough to carry a bad defense, and neither is Tyrod.

Edited February 21, 2017 by Dorkington

[BuffaloHokie13]

Top 11 QB rankings and team results:

 

Completion %

8 out of the top 11 have a winning percentage

7 out of the top 11 made the playoffs

 

TD%

9 out of the top 11 have a winning percentage

7 out of the top 11 made the playoffs

 

INT%

7 out of the top 11 have a winning percentage

7 out of the top 11 made the playoffs

 

ANY/A

10 out of the top 11 have a winning percentage

7 out of the top 11 made the playoffs

 

Sack % (just for FC )

7 out of the top 11 have a winning percentage

5 out of the top 11 made the playoffs

 

I appreciate the work you put into this. One thing, and it's probably a typo, but his ANY/A as a starter is 6.55, not 6.07. And I'm guessing you're just using that for his per attempt stat vs. raw YPA (6.9 & 7.4 respectively).

[FireChan]

I'd argue that both Tyrod and Fitzpatrick are in that larger middle of the pack starting QB category. Tyrod is certainly better at taking care of the ball. Fitzpatrick is better at making decisions quickly (for better or worse). Tyrod has a better deep ball. Fitzpatrick can make the quick/read throw.

 

The only two years that Fitzpatrick had an average or better defense, his team's total record in games he played was 16-12, which isn't terrible at all. Obviously he's not good enough to carry a bad defense, and neither is Tyrod.

I think you may be alone with that take. But I respect it.

[Dorkington]

 

I appreciate the work you put into this. One thing, and it's probably a typo, but his ANY/A as a starter is 6.55, not 6.07. And I'm guessing you're just using that for his per attempt stat vs. raw YPA (6.9 & 7.4 respectively).

Yup, copy pasta error.

[FireChan]

The agenda is strong in this one.

Someone can't handle Fitzy fits the same criteria as good enough to be a postseason QB in the post you just applauded.

Edited February 21, 2017 by FireChan

[Kirby Jackson]

When you factor in the running game he bumps up even more (which is why he typically ranks so high in advanced metrics). He is at 245 yards a game total and has roughly a 4:1 TD to INT. Tyrod ranks on the high end of the game managers in most major statistical categories.

 

I don't think that anyone would argue that he's not good enough to get you to the playoffs (if they would they are wrong). He is 15-14 over the last 2 years. I think that the question that a lot of the people that want to move on is, "if things fall into place, the Bills go 10-6 and don't get out of the 1st round are we happy?" The argument is that the team's ceiling with TT isn't a Super Bowl team so you look until you have a guy with that ceiling. That is why the conversation on the topic has been so fierce. If we were talking about EJ, Losman, Edwards, etc... everyone would just agree "they stink move on." That's not the case here. The conversation is "he's average what do we do?"

[John from Riverside]

Someone can't handle Fitzy fits the same criteria as good enough to be a postseason QB in the post you just applauded.

how in any way is he raising the white flag

 

he called you out on your agenda

 

you do in fact have a agenda

[Dorkington]

When you factor in the running game he bumps up even more (which is why he typically ranks so high in advanced metrics). He is at 245 yards a game total and has roughly a 4:1 TD to INT. Tyrod ranks on the high end of the game managers in most major statistical categories.

 

I don't think that anyone would argue that he's not good enough to get you to the playoffs (if they would they are wrong). He is 15-14 over the last 2 years. I think that the question that a lot of the people that want to move on is, "if things fall into place, the Bills go 10-6 and don't get out of the 1st round are we happy?" The argument is that the team's ceiling with TT isn't a Super Bowl team so you look until you have a guy with that ceiling. That is why the conversation on the topic has been so fierce. If we were talking about EJ, Losman, Edwards, etc... everyone would just agree "they stink move on." That's not the case here. The conversation is "he's average what do we do?"

He's even better if you take everyone's rushing TDs and fumbles into account. He's a very good game manager, imo. Again, not good enough to carry a bad defense to the post season, but he's also not likely to lose a game due to his own mistakes. If our goal is to make the playoffs, we could do *a lot* worse.

Edited February 21, 2017 by Dorkington

[FireChan]

how in any way is he raising the white flag

 

he called you out on your agenda

 

you do in fact have a agenda

I love that I can change some names around, and a post that got a "no ****!" became "wow what an agenda."

 

Laughable. Let's get some brain cells.

 

If you agree with the post because it says "Tyrod" and don't when it says "Fitzpatrick," you're the one with an agenda.

Edited February 21, 2017 by FireChan

[Kirby Jackson]

He's even better if you take everyone's rushing TDs and fumbles into account. He's a very good game manager, imo. Again, not good enough to carry a bad defense to the post season, but he's also not likely to lose a game due to his own mistakes. If our goal is to make the playoffs, we could do *a lot* worse.

One thing that Tasker said late in the year stuck with me, "you can win with him but don't win because of him."