Sorry, but I'm still going to miss Hogan

[26CornerBlitz]

 

He's nothing special. Suffice it to say the difference is at QB.

 

What are you talking about? He has a whopping 32 catches this season in a pass oriented offense. All-Pro!!!

[Captain_Quint]

 

How do better players not help?

 

 

Anyway, on the game deciding play to Hogan (Deadspin):

 

"Both Brady and Hogan noticed, independently, that the Ravens were in a disguised coverage without a deep safety. Hogan adjusted to a go-route, and Brady knew to look for him, because the play they were running was bound to lure safety Eric Weddle away from the middle of the field. And indeed, the play-action got Weddle wrong-footed, Julian Edelmans route drew him away from Hogan, and Hogan merely had to outrun safety Matt Elam, who was lined up unusually tight. Brady hit him in stride. Game over."

 

 

Yeah, Hogan is a JAG jut running around out there. Bills WR corps is loaded with guys like him. No room for another...

The other half of the equation is that Tyrod would have to notice something. He doesnt do that.

[boyst]

 

Your example is LaFell? A guy who never had more than 49 catches in any year before arriving at the Pats and then proceeds to put up 74 in his first season with NE? His numbers weren't nearly as good his second year as he dealt with a foot injury that kept him out 5 games and hampered him in some others but despite that he still put up numbers that were comparable to his career averages prior to arriving in NE.

 

I'm guessing there are guys one could bring up to prove it's not everybody, but LaFell isn't one of them.

he was #1 in NE and #2 as a target. In NC he was #3 we an #4 option. That's an important part to leave out

[DriveFor1Outta5]

There are a bunch of receivers who didn't fare well in NE. Chad Johnson, Jabbar Gaffney, Chad Jackson, Brandon Lloyd, Ben Watson, and Donte Stallworth, to name a few. There are others. LaFell wasn't that good either despite catching a lot of balls a couple of years ago.

With the exception of Johnson and Jackson who were complete duds, those other guys stats were as good or better than Hogan's with the Pats.

[dave mcbride]

With the exception of Johnson and Jackson who were complete duds, those other guys stats were as good or better than Hogan's with the Pats.

What stats are you focusing on? Raw catch numbers? That's way too simplistic. Look at ypc and catch rate. Hogan is averaging 19.2 ypc and a 68.1 percent catch rate. For a guy with a ypc near 20, that's great. LaFell, who had a ton of drops in his final year, had a 50 percent catch rate his final season there. The NE offense is very complex and it distributes the ball to lots of players. If you were to judge players on raw reception totals, you'd conclude that Edelman had a better night than Hogan last night. But that would be foolish.

Edited December 13, 2016 by dave mcbride

[DriveFor1Outta5]

What stats are you focusing on? Raw catch numbers? That's way too simplistic. Look at ypc and catch rate. Hogan is averaging 19.2 ypc and a 68.1 percent catch rate. For a guy with a ypc near 20, that's great. LaFell, who had a ton of drops in his final year, had a 50 percent catch rate his final season there. The NE offense is very complex and it distributes the ball to lots of players. If you were to judge players on raw reception totals, you'd conclude that Edelman had a better night than Hogan last night. But that would be foolish.

Fair enough, but ultimately I guess the conversation is whether we should miss Hogan. I still say we shouldn't. As you mentioned the Pats offense is very complex. Bring in someone you understands it, and they will look good. Our offense isn't as complex, and being able to understand the offense as a receiver in Buffalo isn't going to do as much to help. A guy like Hogan can look legitimate (remember he has 27 catches this year, so it's nothing amazing) because knowledge of the offense can help so much in New England. The system the Pats run allows guys who understand the offense to excel, even if they lack the physical attributes needed to put up big numbers in most other offenses. Ps I don't think Edelman would be much of a player somewhere else either. Welker didn't even achieve much with Manning in Denver after moving on from Brady. Edited December 13, 2016 by DriveFor1Outta5

[Mr. WEO]

 

He's nothing special. Suffice it to say the difference is at QB.

 

 

Yes, the difference between the 2 QBs is significant, so why would it be better for the Bills to have Hogan on the pats (where Brady doesn't need him), instead of in Buffalo? Why is it hard to understand that a good receiver can help a struggling QB more than he can a HOF QB?

[Doc]

Yes, the difference between the 2 QBs is significant, so why would it be better for the Bills to have Hogan on the pats (where Brady doesn't need him), instead of in Buffalo? Why is it hard to understand that a good receiver can help a struggling QB more than he can a HOF QB?

 

The QB isn't struggling because of the WRs. They're getting open. He's just not seeing/getting the ball to them.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

 

 

Yes, the difference between the 2 QBs is significant, so why would it be better for the Bills to have Hogan on the pats (where Brady doesn't need him), instead of in Buffalo? Why is it hard to understand that a good receiver can help a struggling QB more than he can a HOF QB?

If that's the case it means Sammy isn't very good. I haven't seen his existence help TT much.

[dave mcbride]

Fair enough, but ultimately I guess the conversation is whether we should miss Hogan. I still say we shouldn't. As you mentioned the Pats offense is very complex. Bring in someone you understands it, and they will look good. Our offense isn't as complex, and being able to understand the offense as a receiver in Buffalo isn't going to do as much to help. A guy like Hogan can look legitimate (remember he has 27 catches this year, so it's nothing amazing) because knowledge of the offense can help so much in New England. The system the Pats run allows guys who understand the offense to excel, even if they lack the physical attributes needed to put up big numbers in most other offenses. Ps I don't think Edelman would be much of a player somewhere else either. Welker didn't even achieve much with Manning in Denver after moving on from Brady.

He has 32 catches for 613 yards. You're not counting his numbers from last night. He's on pace for about 850 yards receiving, which would be the best for a Bills #2 since Lee Evans in 2004 (843 yards). Would he put up the same numbers for the Bills? No. I agree with you there. That said,he's a better player than Goodwin, who has really disappointed me this year. He's a weak player. The Bills' offense would be marginally better with him over Goodwin at WR. Maybe that gets them another win. Hard to say.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

He has 32 catches for 613 yards. You're not counting his numbers from last night. He's on pace for about 850 yards receiving, which would be the best for a Bills #2 since Lee Evans in 2004 (843 yards). Would he put up the same numbers for the Bills? No. I agree with you there. That said,he's a better player than Goodwin, who has really disappointed me this year. He's a weak player. The Bills' offense would be marginally better with him over Goodwin at WR. Maybe that gets them another win. Hard to say.

I understand your points. I can see your prospective if I look at it from the point of us relying on Goodwin and Listenbee. It's not so much that we needed Hogan, but we needed better than what we have. Listenbee and Goodwin are "Al Davis" type receivers. They are guys with speed who have little else to offer. They are not well rounded receivers that anyone should have counted on.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Fair enough, but ultimately I guess the conversation is whether we should miss Hogan. I still say we shouldn't. As you mentioned the Pats offense is very complex. Bring in someone you understands it, and they will look good. Our offense isn't as complex, and being able to understand the offense as a receiver in Buffalo isn't going to do as much to help. A guy like Hogan can look legitimate (remember he has 27 catches this year, so it's nothing amazing) because knowledge of the offense can help so much in New England. The system the Pats run allows guys who understand the offense to excel, even if they lack the physical attributes needed to put up big numbers in most other offenses. Ps I don't think Edelman would be much of a player somewhere else either. Welker didn't even achieve much with Manning in Denver after moving on from Brady.

I'm curious about the origin of these lofty WR expectations.

 

Walker had over 100 catches, and 1200 yards and 12 TDs in roughly a season and a half with Denver, including a career 10 TDs in one season. And another 160 + TD in the playoffs....

 

So by all means, please find our team some of these underachieving WRs because they are way out achieving our double first, second and third round WRs.

[Mr. WEO]

 

The QB isn't struggling because of the WRs. They're getting open. He's just not seeing/getting the ball to them.

 

He's getting it to them 61% of the time. Not a huge difference from last season.

 

If that's the case it means Sammy isn't very good. I haven't seen his existence help TT much.

 

 

Gotta be on the field every week to help out...

[DriveFor1Outta5]

I'm curious about the origin of these lofty WR expectations.

 

Walker had over 100 catches, and 1200 yards and 12 TDs in roughly a season and a half with Denver, including a career 10 TDs in one season. And another 160 + TD in the playoffs....

 

So by all means, please find our team some of these underachieving WRs because they are way out achieving our double first, second and third round WRs.

I will find you those receivers if you find us a QB. I'm not sure of anyway else to put up those numbers.

[Boatdrinks]

Yes, the difference between the 2 QBs is significant, so why would it be better for the Bills to have Hogan on the pats (where Brady doesn't need him), instead of in Buffalo? Why is it hard to understand that a good receiver can help a struggling QB more than he can a HOF QB?

This is where your assumption is incorrect. A great QB can elevate the play of those around him. His play can " reveal" the ability that was not visible before. While QBs need good receivers, a WR cannot hide the flaws of a QB such as Taylor. Everything is always a little off. The throw on the slant is late and behind the WR. The WR makes a sight adjustment on an option route ( like Hogan on his TD last night) but the QB locks onto his first read ( Hogan was not primary read) and never sees the wide open WR. Tyrod Taylor has missed seeing wide open WRs either on a great route or a blown coverage all season long. Why would it matter to the Bills which WR is running the route if the QB is so lacking he cannot even see him? The Bills had injuries at WR, I get that. Does that mean that Chris Hogan would not have gotten injured if the Bills kept him over a different WR? There is no way to say that: Hogan could have been injured in week one. We don't know. But making a case that keeping one WR over another would have made a damn bit of difference to the Bills record this season is a fools game. The Bills are last in the NFL in passing because of their QB. They run more than other teams because of their QB. Hogan is a decent NFL WR, nothing more. He will go to the playoffs because he is on the Pats. The Pats will not go to the playoffs because of Hogan. The Bills will not make the playoffs this year , not because they chose to keep another WR over Chris Hogan. They will miss the playoffs because the QB doesn't do enough things well to result in wins. No WR is going to make Tyrod Taylor read a defense faster, throw the ball with anticipation, and not hold onto the ball too long when a WR comes open. It's ridiculous to think Hogan is any kind of reason for the Bills struggles or could help Taylor one iota.

He has 32 catches for 613 yards. You're not counting his numbers from last night. He's on pace for about 850 yards receiving, which would be the best for a Bills #2 since Lee Evans in 2004 (843 yards). Would he put up the same numbers for the Bills? No. I agree with you there. That said,he's a better player than Goodwin, who has really disappointed me this year. He's a weak player. The Bills' offense would be marginally better with him over Goodwin at WR. Maybe that gets them another win. Hard to say.

 

Maybe, but highly unlikely. WRs have been wide open all season long , watch the all 22's. Taylor doesn't see half the things that Tom Brady does, doesn't anticipate them, isn't nearly as accurate. The Bills had injuries at WR; how do we know Hogan would not have been injured if he was on the Bills? Every game is different , every play is different , what the player is being asked to do is different . Anyone knowing anything about football know that the route concepts of the NE offense are completely different than Buffalo's. Just watch them operate . I'm not surprised at all that Hogan could fit into NEs offense pretty well and at least be productive more consistently than in Buffalo. It was a miscalculation by Whaley and co, but one of little consequence. The dead money from cutting say, Goodwin would have precluded them from singing Hogan to a higher number. Would the Bills have been better if they had not signed Lorenzo Alexander so they could keep Hogan? I'd say no. You can't keep all players all the time , and Hogans deal was up at a bad time. That's the NFL .

[Mr. WEO]

This is where your assumption is incorrect. A great QB can elevate the play of those around him. His play can " reveal" the ability that was not visible before. While QBs need good receivers, a WR cannot hide the flaws of a QB such as Taylor. Everything is always a little off. The throw on the slant is late and behind the WR. The WR makes a sight adjustment on an option route ( like Hogan on his TD last night) but the QB locks onto his first read ( Hogan was not primary read) and never sees the wide open WR. Tyrod Taylor has missed seeing wide open WRs either on a great route or a blown coverage all season long. Why would it matter to the Bills which WR is running the route if the QB is so lacking he cannot even see him? The Bills had injuries at WR, I get that. Does that mean that Chris Hogan would not have gotten injured if the Bills kept him over a different WR? There is no way to say that: Hogan could have been injured in week one. We don't know. But making a case that keeping one WR over another would have made a damn bit of difference to the Bills record this season is a fools game. The Bills are last in the NFL in passing because of their QB. They run more than other teams because of their QB. Hogan is a decent NFL WR, nothing more. He will go to the playoffs because he is on the Pats. The Pats will not go to the playoffs because of Hogan. The Bills will not make the playoffs this year , not because they chose to keep another WR over Chris Hogan. They will miss the playoffs because the QB doesn't do enough things well to result in wins. No WR is going to make Tyrod Taylor read a defense faster, throw the ball with anticipation, and not hold onto the ball too long when a WR comes open. It's ridiculous to think Hogan is any kind of reason for the Bills struggles or could help Taylor one iota.

 

 

So now it comes down to "Hogan could have gotten injured on day 1"?

 

Look, you and other are contorting yourselves into pretzels to try to explain an obvious truism: it's always better to have better players. This is particularly true with a WRs and a struggling QB.

 

A fool's game? You could easily have made the claim that NOT ONE individual player's presence on this team (except maybe McCoy) affected their record. Get rid of anyone (Sammy, Dareus, anyone) and the outcome would have been the same as it is now.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

 

He's getting it to them 61% of the time. Not a huge difference from last season.

 

 

 

Gotta be on the field every week to help out...

I was replying to the assertion that a "good receiver can help a struggling QB more than he can a HOF QB". I remarked on the point that Hogan would be more helpful here than he is in NE. I disagreed saying that under that premise Sammy must be awful, since he hasn't helped TT. If you think Hogan could have been more helpful it means you must think Hogan is a better receiver than Sammy. That's just not true. Sammy has been injured, but his presence hasn't helped much since he's been back. TT is still lost. It's crazy to think Hogan would change that. Edited December 13, 2016 by DriveFor1Outta5

[Nihilarian]

JAG... who caught the TD bomb that was the difference in the game for the Patriots against the Ravens!

 

JAG, that caught more passes for first downs than any other pass for Buffalo. Yea, Tyrod Taylor couldn't have used him this year as they have had Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marcus Easley, Walter Powell, Percy Harvin all year and the Bills passing offense is 31st...oh wait!

[DriveFor1Outta5]

JAG... who caught the TD bomb that was the difference in the game for the Patriots against the Ravens!

 

JAG, that caught more passes for first downs than any other pass for Buffalo. Yea, Tyrod Taylor couldn't have used him this year as they have had Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marcus Easley, Walter Powell, Percy Harvin all year and the Bills passing offense is 31st...oh wait!

TT couldn't use Jerry Rice but everyone is entitled to their own opinion. We have open guys running all over the field. TT never sees them. Why does it matter if Hogan is running open? It stings to see him do things in NE more than anything, but he'd just be running around Buffalo wide open.

[Mr. WEO]

I was replying to the assertion that a "good receiver can help a struggling QB more than he can a HOF QB". I remarked on the point that Hogan would be more helpful here than he is in NE. I disagreed saying that under that premise Sammy must be awful, since he hasn't helped TT. If you think Hogan could have been more helpful it means you must think Hogan is a better receiver than Sammy. That's just not true. Sammy has been injured, but his presence hasn't helped much since he's been back. TT is still lost. It's crazy to think Hogan would change that.

 

 

That wasn't the premise. I can se why you would want to draw attention that way because what I actually said repeatedly is that having another good WR would always benefit a struggling QB.

 

Do you think TT and the Bills would have been no better off with Hogans than who they were trotting out there until Sammy was comfortable enough to play? This is a team that was so desperate for WRs that they thought it was a good idea to pull Percy Harvin off his couch onto the filed after 16 months out of the league!