Tyler Dunne on the Direction of the Bills' Offense

[26CornerBlitz]

@TyDunne

For once, there's real direction with the #Bills' offense but will it pay off? ... http://bills.buffalonews.com/2016/05/10/analysis-theres-real-direction-bills-offense-will-pay-off/

 

For years, this offense has wandered aimlessly. Quarterbacks dubbed saviors flame out, high draft picks prove to be busts and Terrell Owens is handed the key to the city.

An entire generation of fans has been tortured by false hope, year in and year out.

This moribund Buffalo Bills offense hyperventilates as the New England Patriots dominate. Since Tom Brady took over, the Bills have cycled through 13 different starting quarterbacks. Now that the off-season dust is starting to clear, so is this front office's vision and, for once, there's direction. Rather than chase... and chase... and chase at quarterback via a $20 million per year deal to Tyrod Taylor or a high draft pick, the team decided to sell out on what it does best.

Run the ball.

 

[The Big Cat]

getting the defense off the field and keeping the offense to third and 6 and shorter while mixing a big score once in a while will be our formula for 9+ wins

if that means pounding the rock all game long, so be it.

 

what's the easiest way for us to get 4+ yards on downs one and two?

 

like it or not, the coaches are not ready to put it on TT's shoulder.

[26CornerBlitz]

getting the defense off the field and keeping the offense to third and 6 and shorter while mixing a big score once in a while will be our formula for 9+ wins

if that means pounding the rock all game long, so be it.

 

what's the easiest way for us to get 4+ yards on downs one and two?

 

like it or not, the coaches are not ready to put it on TT's shoulder.

 

They didn't last season, but Roman has intimated that there will be more instances in 2016 where they will need to with an assumed progression in Tyrod's game.

[The Big Cat]

 

They didn't last season, but Roman has intimated that there will be more instances in 2016 where they will need to with an assumed progression in Tyrod's game.

 

of course. there is some gradation between expecting nothing and expecting aaron rodgers. roman and ryan will expect more. but it'll still be less than what's expected of the league's top 10-15 passers, i think.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

of course. there is some gradation between expecting nothing and expecting aaron rodgers. roman and ryan will expect more. but it'll still be less than what's expected of the league's top 10-15 passers, i think.

 

If he expects to be paid in that range then it's not unreasonable to expect that level of play.

[The Big Cat]

 

If he expects to be paid in that range then it's not unreasonable to expect that level of play.

 

...assuming his expectations for pay and his coach's expectations for him are aligned.

 

doesn't dunne's analysis indicate they might not be?

[26CornerBlitz]

 

...assuming his expectations for pay and his coach's expectations for him are aligned.

 

doesn't dunne's analysis indicate they might not be?

 

Not necessarily. There are areas where Taylor needs show improvement that can put him in the tier of QBs in the 10-15 range.

[The Big Cat]

 

Not necessarily. There are areas where Taylor needs show improvement that can put him in the tier of QBs in the 10-15 range.

 

Exactly. Which means it'd be premature to pay him as if.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Exactly. Which means it'd be premature to pay him as if.

 

I agree. The Bills are taking the prudent approach.

[White Linen]

Except going with TT was a reach also as it is with making any change to your teams QB. Fact is you can't run the ball with a crap QB. Tyrod is one of the reasons we run the ball well - and not just because he himself runs.

[H2o]

We are going to be a throwback team in the modern era of football. We want to punch you in the mouth on offense and defense. They will pick their spots with Taylor still, jmo. The biggest component lands on the defense. If Rex gets this thing right and our defense can hold our opponents under 20 ppg then we will be a team to be reckoned with in the AFC.

Edited May 10, 2016 by H2o

[Coach Tuesday]

Tyrod needs to move the sticks more. Fewer three and outs if this offense is going to take the next step.

[The Big Cat]

Tyrod needs to move the sticks more. Fewer three and outs if this offense is going to take the next step.

 

I insist, in the face of much ridicule, that this progression, more so than the defense's, will be critical to success in 2016.

[machine gun kelly]

The run game will work, but it's the defense. Rexxy, you have your handpicked players loaded up on defense, and if you live up to all of this smack talk going on right now whether the articles on the three picks, Bart Scott, and so on. I am eternally hopeful he does it.

 

That happens, with a run game there will be more than enough openings for TT to hit Sammy deep. I'm holding my breath we see TT start hitting Clay over the middle in 2 seconds, or Woods on a nice slant or skinny post in 2.5 seconds with regularity.

 

I'm over my post season Bills depression for now, and want to see it happen, but I am skeptical. I'll feel a heck of a lot better with a 2-0 record beating the Ravens in their house and the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets on TR night. 3-1 has a nice ring to it in September if Marsha is really suspended.

[LeGOATski]

 

I insist, in the face of much ridicule, that this progression, more so than the defense's, will be critical to success in 2016.

Lol. I don't think you're facing that much ridicule.

[John from Riverside]

 

I insist, in the face of much ridicule, that this progression, more so than the defense's, will be critical to success in 2016.

Cat,

 

I see your point more then most I promise

 

but I dont agree here....the D dropped 15 spots in production last year....while the offense went UP in production

 

While I also want better 3rd down efficiency...this team goes how its defense goes

[The Big Cat]

Lol. I don't think you're facing that much ridicule.

 

Oooooooooh, it was a protracted battle. Believe me.

 

Cat,

 

I see your point more then most I promise

 

but I dont agree here....the D dropped 15 spots in production last year....while the offense went UP in production

 

While I also want better 3rd down efficiency...this team goes how its defense goes

 

And based on relative performances, the offense lost us more games than the defense did last year and the defense won us more games than the offense did. If it's the offense that improves, so too does the W-L loss record. Shall I post the heat maps again?

[YoloinOhio]

 

I insist, in the face of much ridicule, that this progression, more so than the defense's, will be critical to success in 2016.

ridicule? No way. The season rests on him regardless of the D. Except in some outlying cases, you are what your QB says you are. They can run the ball all they want but without the threat of a consistently successful passing game to balance things out, it won't lead them to the playoffs Edited May 10, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[Mr. WEO]

The Bills had 509 rushing attempts and 465 pass attempts last year (52/48%).

 

TT accounted for 568 (23%) of the Bills rushing yards.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

A few things that would go a long way to making our offense run better.

 

1 - Fewer dumb trick plays. Implement a couple, but a lot of them were drive killers last year. Lose 5 here, 9 there. Thats the end of that drive.

2 - When passing on 1st down, more stuff over the middle. More quick passes. And more pocket movement from TT. This is more on Roman I think. We started to see more of it as the year went on.

3 - When its third down, and you can see the open path to the 1st down sticks. TAKE THE 1ST DOWN! Throwing a 40 yard ball to Chris Hogan when he's open doesnt matter when hes Chris Hogan. I don't care if it hit him in the hands, the smart move is to get the first down. Every point is important. I'm remembering a specific one - but he did that quite a few times. Sometimes it was a receiver coming across that he should throw to, etc. But keeping us moving is huge.

[The Big Cat]

ridicule? No way. The season rests on him regardless of the D. Except in some outlying cases, you are what your QB says you are. They can run the ball all they want but without the threat of a consistently successful passing game to balance things out, it won't lead them to the playoffs

 

I totally agree. But when I floated this very notion back in March (probably), very vocal swaths quite fervently did not.

[boyst]

Taylor throws for over 2500 yards we will win at least 9 games. Throws over 3000 I worry not so much

[The Big Cat]

A few things that would go a long way to making our offense run better.

 

1 - Fewer dumb trick plays. Implement a couple, but a lot of them were drive killers last year. Lose 5 here, 9 there. Thats the end of that drive.

2 - When passing on 1st down, more stuff over the middle. More quick passes. And more pocket movement from TT. This is more on Roman I think. We started to see more of it as the year went on.

3 - When its third down, and you can see the open path to the 1st down sticks. TAKE THE 1ST DOWN! Throwing a 40 yard ball to Chris Hogan when he's open doesnt matter when hes Chris Hogan. I don't care if it hit him in the hands, the smart move is to get the first down. Every point is important. I'm remembering a specific one - but he did that quite a few times. Sometimes it was a receiver coming across that he should throw to, etc. But keeping us moving is huge.

 

Good post. There's no shame in Brady-esque small ball. Take every last yard the defense gives you and eventually the points start piling up.

[boyst]

 

I totally agree. But when I floated this very notion back in March (probably), very vocal swaths quite fervently did not.

if this were Fitzpatrick it might be different. We would know we can't rely on him. So why is Taylor the focus? If the d struggles to get up facing tough teams of men than that play better than we are going to not be able to keep up no matter how good he plays.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

Good post. There's no shame in Brady-esque small ball. Take every last yard the defense gives you and eventually the points start piling up.

 

Took russell wilson a few years to figure out when to just trot out the 8 yard first down and go back to the line for 3 more tries. I'm not 100% sold on TT, but he does leave me with a feeling that we might have found the guy.

[The Big Cat]

if this were Fitzpatrick it might be different. We would know we can't rely on him. So why is Taylor the focus? If the d struggles to get up facing tough teams of men than that play better than we are going to not be able to keep up no matter how good he plays.

 

??

 

Are you saying the defense won't win in a shoot out?

 

That's a bizarre way of putting it.

[The Jokeman]

Except going with TT was a reach also as it is with making any change to your teams QB. Fact is you can't run the ball with a crap QB. Tyrod is one of the reasons we run the ball well - and not just because he himself runs.

TT run totals inflate our rushing totals. TT is going to have to improve as s passer for us to take the next step. As right now I classify as a bottom 3rd QB as a passer. If he canove to a middle of pack guy and our defense can become better at stopping the run then we're easily a playoff team. As to me is continually building the defense and hoping to hit on a good enough QB that won't break the bank but seems to have enough forethought to put us in cap jail. The Bengals to me a model of what we trying to become and to a lesser extent the Chiefs.

[The Big Cat]

Lol. Yes post your heat maps again. Aka your statistics to fit your agenda.

 

How teams finished against Buffalo relative to their other 14/15 opponents was hardly skewed data.

[MDH]

Lol. Yes post your heat maps again. Aka your statistics to fit your agenda.

 

You mean the data to support his position? Isn't that what one is supposed to do when in a discussion with differing viewpoints?

 

I haven't seen his heat maps and don't agree it's "more on the offense" than the D (it's equally on them both) but I wish more people supported their positions with something other than "trust me."

[The Big Cat]

 

You mean the data to support his position? Isn't that what one is supposed to do when in a discussion with differing viewpoints?

 

I haven't seen his heat maps and don't agree it's "more on the offense" than the D (it's equally on them both) but I wish more people supported their positions with something other than "trust me."

 

I believe these are the most updated ones:

 

 

the percentages are relative to how that week's opponents' season averages, minus the bills games

[MDH]

 

I believe these are the most updated ones:

 

 

the percentages are relative to how that week's opponents' season averages, minus the bills games

 

Thanks for the stats.

 

I don't look at those and think "the offense is primarily to blame" though. Looks pretty evenly split. I do, however, look at that KC game - which was the most pivotal game of the season - and think, "the D laid a giant egg on the season" because of their performance in that game.

Edited May 10, 2016 by MDH

[The Big Cat]

 

Thanks for the stats.

 

I don't look at those and think "the offense is primarily to blame" though. Looks pretty evenly split. I do, however, look at that KC game - which was the most pivotal game of the season - and think, "the D laid a giant egg on the season" because of their performance in that game.

Three weird things happened that day: AS finally and for the last time throwing the ball downfield, injuries up the middle that turned the run D into the Lincoln Tunnel and TT inexplicably not targeting SW after the two of them torched KC in the first half.

[3rdand12]

 

I totally agree. But when I floated this very notion back in March (probably), very vocal swaths quite fervently did not.

I would be pleased to ridicule you

[FireChan]

 

I believe these are the most updated ones:

 

 

the percentages are relative to how that week's opponents' season averages, minus the bills games

How does this prove the offense lost us more games than the defense again?

 

Doesn't the heat map show the Bills offense performed at a high level in 8 of the 16 games, while the defense only had 3 great games?

 

Doesn't the heat map show the Bills defense had more terrible categories than the Bills offense?

 

Doesn't the heat map show we lost 4 games when the defense was below average, and only lost 3 when the offense was below average?

Edited May 10, 2016 by FireChan

[boyst]

 

??

 

Are you saying the defense won't win in a shoot out?

 

That's a bizarre way of putting it.

when the defense gets its ass kicked in the second half after failed adjustments by the Ryan D then yes, the other team will be our d.

 

It happened in many games in 2015. Our d our faltered when it was time to buckle up

[GunnerBill]

 

If he expects to be paid in that range then it's not unreasonable to expect that level of play.

 

But you have to factor in his rushing yards as well. You can't judge whether Tyrod is a top 15 QB by the same metric as say, Matt Ryan. His ability to make plays with his legs is an important part of what he is. Same as Wilson before he signed his deal had he ever been in the top 10 or 15 for passing yards in a season? You have to look at the whole package.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

But you have to factor in his rushing yards as well. You can't judge whether Tyrod is a top 15 QB by the same metric as say, Matt Ryan. His ability to make plays with his legs is an important part of what he is. Same as Wilson before he signed his deal had he ever been in the top 10 or 15 for passing yards in a season? You have to look at the whole package.

 

Fair points to consider. But two things that I'm specifically looking for him to do a better job of are sustaining offensive drives with 3rd down conversions via better decision making and coming through in late game situations with better performances that lead the team to victory.

[GunnerBill]

 

Fair points to consider. But two things that I'm specifically looking for him to do a better job of are sustaining offensive drives with 3rd down conversions via better decision making and coming through in late game situations with better performances that lead the team to victory.

 

Of course. I think we all want to see that. It is just we need to not hold passing yards as the be all and end all metric when measuring him. Have to look at the full picture.

How does this prove the offense lost us more games than the defense again?

 

 

Because they are created for the purpose of confirmation bias.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Of course. I think we all want to see that. It is just we need to not hold passing yards as the be all and end all metric when measuring him. Have to look at the full picture.

 

Never said it was the end all and as a matter of fact I mentioned nothing about passing yards in the post that you initially quoted. Do what it takes to win games is the right measuring stick as far as I'm concerned. Statistics be damned.

Edited May 11, 2016 by 26CornerBlitz

[White Linen]

TT run totals inflate our rushing totals. TT is going to have to improve as s passer for us to take the next step. As right now I classify as a bottom 3rd QB as a passer. If he canove to a middle of pack guy and our defense can become better at stopping the run then we're easily a playoff team. As to me is continually building the defense and hoping to hit on a good enough QB that won't break the bank but seems to have enough forethought to put us in cap jail. The Bengals to me a model of what we trying to become and to a lesser extent the Chiefs.

 

So TT doesn't help our run game - but only inflates the perception that we run well? No.