CommonCents Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Where was your comparable analysis when opining that the defense lost games because of the 3 and outs in 2015? I didn't see a single reference to 2014, as if 3 and outs didn't matter then. It'll take me a minute to go through it. But if it's alright with you, I'll go through games that we won as well. Because I know we had games with streaks of garbage offense in 2014 that we pulled out a win in. He didn't use the word carry either, and that's not what he said. Could have "netted us a playoff birth" something to that extent. I assume that is just looking at season ending stats and distributing them evenly to tell a tale. Out offense was bad vs. the Giants, Titans, Jetsx2. All of those games we won. Is that credit to the much critiqued defense? That's without going through the whole schedule. I'm sure the dolphins game and late comebacks against the Pats and Jags pushed a lot of our season ending numbers to surpass what we did in 14. The offense still lacked consistency far to often in 15. Did the defense regress under in 15. Yup. Did the offense improve? For certain stretches it was leaps and bounds above the 14 team. For other stretches it left much to be desired. The sum of all the parts does not equal success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Could have "netted us a playoff birth" something to that extent. I assume that is just looking at season ending stats and distributing them evenly to tell a tale. Out offense was bad vs. the Giants, Titans, Jetsx2. All of those games we won. Is that credit to the much critiqued defense? That's without going through the whole schedule. I'm sure the dolphins game and late comebacks against the Pats and Jags pushed a lot of our season ending numbers to surpass what we did in 14. The offense still lacked consistency far to often in 15. Did the defense regress under in 15. Yup. Did the offense improve? For certain stretches it was leaps and bounds above the 14 team. For other stretches it left much to be desired. The sum of all the parts does not equal success. You oughta follow my link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 (edited) i know 2014 is all you I really need to stop editing my posts and ending up with a longer one. Sorry about that. Take a look. I'll also note 3 and out streaks from each game. Edited February 25, 2016 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 2014 is not in that post. Also, we need to hammer out the methodology before I dive in. Because yours, honestly, is pretty weak. Taking a data set of strictly losses, which, by definition, only include games our defense allowed more points than our offense scored? And you're going to tell me that it "proves" our ineffective offense hamstrung our defense? C'mon. That's not remotely fair. Here's my proposed criteria. All 16 games from the 2014 and 2015 season. I'll tally up every time the offense went 3 and out and the defense held the other team to a punt. The scoring will be 2 for a punt/TO and 1 for forcing a FG. The defense gets zero points if they allow a TD drive. I will throw out every TD and FG allowed after an offensive TO, because I don't think it's very fair to hold either of those against the defense, and it should (hopefully) even out over the course of a season. I will make special note of instances where the defense "stood up" in a do or die moment (basically to end the game) in both instances, with contextual explanations. Does that sound fair? no because the original exercise was based around stretches of three and outs. one three and out followed by two scoring drives or a three and out, a nine minute, 17 play drive that doesn't score, followed by a three and out are not the same as three consecutive three and outs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 no because the original exercise was based around stretches of three and outs. one three and out followed by two scoring drives or a three and out, a nine minute, 17 play drive that doesn't score, followed by a three and out are not the same as three consecutive three and outs. Are you talking defense or offense here? Here's what I'm trying to say, in an example. Let's say the Bills game log looks like this: Bills offense gets ball at 20 yardline 1st and 10 - EJ Manuel incomplete pass 2nd and 10 - EJ Manuel incomplete pass 3rd and 10 - EJ Manuel incomplete pass 4th and 10 - Punt to 20 Opponent gets ball at 20 yard line Either goes 3 and out or punts eventually The Bills Defense would get a point for the above scenario. Every drive, every game. If the Bills offense gets a first down, the drive after is discounted. If the opposing team scores a TD, no points. I don't know what you're trying to say here. Are you saying that if the Bills offense goes 3 and out, and then the Bills defense is out there for 9 minutes, and then the Bills offense goes 3 and out again, the defense shouldn't be penalized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 You oughta follow my link I just looked at it. It's exactly what I'm talking about just in more depth. Kudos to you for investing the time. By no means am I approving of the defensive performance and effort for 15 but I'm sure as hell not going to forget what I watched on offense. It was far to disjointed to push this team to 10 wins in the AFC east. As you pointed too it may have hampered us enough to cost us games instead of this idea that the decline in defense cost us games. Football is the total team sport. The entire meal goes into the oven and cooks together, all 53 pieces. In the majority of other sports things cook separately and stats are much more applicable to each facet of the game. Stats are useless without context, when you went in depth on the 5 or so games that you linked that is proof of what really took place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 (edited) I just looked at it. It's exactly what I'm talking about just in more depth. Kudos to you for investing the time. By no means am I approving of the defensive performance and effort for 15 but I'm sure as hell not going to forget what I watched on offense. It was far to disjointed to push this team to 10 wins in the AFC east. As you pointed too it may have hampered us enough to cost us games instead of this idea that the decline in defense cost us games. Football is the total team sport. The entire meal goes into the oven and cooks together, all 53 pieces. In the majority of other sports things cook separately and stats are much more applicable to each facet of the game. Stats are useless without context, when you went in depth on the 5 or so games that you linked that is proof of what really took place. What "really took place?" Big Cat's stats are the one faulting 3 and outs for the Bills defense allowing 14 points in the Skins first 2 drives? And it's the 3 and outs getting the defense tired is why we lost that game? Edited February 25, 2016 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What "really took place?" Big Cat's stats are the one faulting 3 and outs for the Bills defense allowing 14 points in the Skins first 2 drives? And it's the 3 and outs getting the defense tired is why we lost that game? I have you 4 games before looking at his information. Dispute those games. That accounts for half of our wins and to be that was enough to stop. As I said in the previous post football is the sum of all parts it's difficult to separate individual units and distribute accolades or blame. The story of 2015 is a highly penalized Bills team who often showed a lack of motivation, planning, and maturity on the field. If you want to point fingers at Rex and or the D then so be it. Just keep everything in context, the entire team had flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dopey Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 As Leo Durocher used to say " what has he done for me lately ".We should ask that question of Rex too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I have you 4 games before looking at his information. Dispute those games. That accounts for half of our wins and to be that was enough to stop. As I said in the previous post football is the sum of all parts it's difficult to separate individual units and distribute accolades or blame. The story of 2015 is a highly penalized Bills team who often showed a lack of motivation, planning, and maturity on the field. If you want to point fingers at Rex and or the D then so be it. Just keep everything in context, the entire team had flaws. I don't think anyone said anything different. Just that I'd take the 2015 offense over the 2014 offense 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. And that was supposed to be the difference in making the playoffs or not last offseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 but still wants Rexy to meet him halfway (no likey dropping back in coverage) I will give him this - he is consistent with his quotes. one player can't dictate how the D is run, it just wont' work, he just needs to go a team that plays his style like Philly. he probably figures he can make the most money here s he is "willing" to restructure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Ridiculous. Of course I would rather they win with him, but I don't expect that, so I want damage minimized. I assumed people would understand that. It's not about me being right, it's about how I expect things to unfold. I dread the team being torn apart by this fool, and then being caught in the middle again, player/scheme-wise, with the next coach. Really, that needs to be explained? Or are you just eager to question my fanhood, and rail against me for "wanting the team to lose"? I assure you, I hope Wrex takes them to the championship...but I don't believe he has it in him. There are zero people on this board that don't want the Bills to do well, or want to be right so badly, that they would rather be right about them failing, than to see them win. It's a given, as far as I'm concerned. I asked you one simple question......I'm the one railing? Really? You just sound dead set against Rex succeeding. I agree that I don't want the team torn apart. We do actually have a QB we could be hopeful about right now. Without Rex we wouldn't have him. It isn't all doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I haven't read the whole thread but guessing Mario and his agent know that no other team will pay close to what he's making now or anywhere near it...of course he'll stay for a pay cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 That juggernaut offense whom fell flat against the Giants and Titans in consecutive weeks and also failed to score more than 16 points against Dallas's reserves. I mean seriously. You look at the 2014 vs. 2015 offense and the 2014 vs. 2015 defense and you see the problem as the offense + Mario Williams? OK see whatever you want to see I suppose. Rex was basically handed a block of clay to mold an offense. As the season went along, it was not a work of art but it was clearly a work in progress. OL and WR2 are probably the biggest problems. The OL seems to be moving in the right direction. WR2's solution was Harvin; clearly Rex's doing. A viable threat for the 12 snaps per year he plays, the issue with Harvin is durability. I'm not sure there were many other choices out there but Harvin was a very bad choice. Rex was handed a work of art on defense and he turned it into a block of clay with a big chunk having been thrown away. That thrown away chunk gets all the blame. Then again, Rex is an artist and beauty is in the eye of the beholder. By all means continue to admire the artist and that painting on the wall that looks like nothing identifiable to the human eye. Judging by your username you are probably familiar with the term Occum's Shaver. Try applying it to the 2015 Bills and see what turns up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 (edited) I haven't read the whole thread but guessing Mario and his agent know that no other team will pay close to what he's making now or anywhere near it...of course he'll stay for a pay cut.i agree that's probably what is going on but if so, I guess I'm slightly surprised. It's a pretty thin pass rusher class in FA and he was a 1st team all pro two seasons ago. I thought a 4-3 team with a lot of cap space would get out the checkbook. Still could happen and he's just trying to set the stage. Edited February 25, 2016 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 i agree that's probably what is going on but if so, I guess I'm slightly surprised. It's a pretty thin pass rusher class in FA and he was a 1st team all pro two seasons ago. I thought a 4-3 team with a lot of cap space would get out the checkbook. Still could happen and he's just trying to set the stage. He'll probably get paid, definitely do well, absolutely continue to be blamed for our 2015 failures by many on this site and possibly get phone calls from Preston Brown seeking consultation on what to do about being scapegoated by a coach using an antiquated scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Judging by your username you are probably familiar with the term Occum's Shaver. Try applying it to the 2015 Bills and see what turns up. HAHA! Shaver? If Occum went to his mirror one morning and found his razor had been replaced with a shaver, one would assume someone dear to him had presented him with a gift during the night. But he'd be bewildered at the site of this object made of completely foreign materials and a rubber cord dangling off one end as it wouldn't do anything. There'd be no understanding of the meaning for the plug as there was no power generation available. Now, he may think, 'this must have been transported back to me in time from a place much further advanced than we are'.. As he contemplated further extrapolations of this theory, he finally came to the conclusion it was a gift and he would seek to find out who among his staff delivered it. BUT, he'd be wrong. The Bills analogy is that we can spend the entire off season debating whether the reason for the last 2 seasons of continued futility can be laid at the feet of the offense, defense or the current hot seat coach, OR, realize that we're dealing with a sports team from Buffalo NY and are doomed to eternal failure, regardless of the high level of personnel we acquire to attempt to achieve. All the outer layers are nearly peeled off -failure to make the playoffs this coming season will tie us for the all-time record of League futility. Teased with 2 titles in the 5th & 6th year of a start up League, there's been nothing but misery for all 3 pro sports teams originating in the city. Teams with much less talent than the '75 or '99 Sabres have skated the Cup -to say nothing of 'Lombardi' hoisters who couldn't hold Jim Kelly's jock. We're cursed -and it comes from future humans who transported back in time to assure a lifetime of disappointment. Just a theory.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Ain't happenin' @SalSports Meeting Mario half-way isn't going to happen. Rex says defense will be "fully pregnant" with his scheme in 2016: http://www.wgr550.com/Rex-Bills-defense-will-be-fully-pregnant-in-2016/22504777 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 i love me some Mario... but that ship has sailed.....he quit on his teammates...it's over......time to move on.......besides , rex isn't changing. as far as the team goes, he'd have to take a pay cut down to about $1-2 mil......and that aint happening. this is just PR posturing Mario has a better chance of being struck by lightning than being on the Bills 2016 roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladiebla Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Get 'r done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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