Drafting a QB every year...

[Thurmal34]

is this model feasible?

 

would, by the inherently flawed nature of the model, would it become impossible to develop a QB?

 

how does a team get 1.) a QB reps in practice and 2.) the RIGHT QB reps in practice?

 

if those two QBs are shaky that one year but show promise do you take more reps away from them by drafting another QB the following year because you are married to the philosophy?

 

if you ARE married to the philosophy, do you still somehow attack management for doing what you had been suggesting for years?

 

is this model feasible?

 

would, by the inherently flawed nature of the model, would it become impossible to develop a QB?

 

how does a team get 1.) a QB reps in practice and 2.) the RIGHT QB reps in practice?

 

if those two QBs are shaky that one year but show promise do you take more reps away from them by drafting another QB the following year because you are married to the philosophy?

 

if you ARE married to the philosophy, do you still somehow attack management for doing what you had been suggesting for years?

 

its an idiotic mindset. you cant draft a QB every year, because by nature, that approach undermines every QB you have

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Each time this topic is raised I have the same answer. It's not practical or feasible.

[Blokestradamus]

Development doesn't happen overnight. It takes the right guy in the right system with the right coaches and a lot of patience.

 

While I don't think drafting one every year is the way to go, I think you have to be prepared to cut ties and start over if it becomes apparent that you got the wrong guy. I believe this is the boat the Bills find themselves in with EJ.

[Bill from NYC]

Development doesn't happen overnight. It takes the right guy in the right system with the right coaches and a lot of patience.

 

While I don't think drafting one every year is the way to go, I think you have to be prepared to cut ties and start over if it becomes apparent that you got the wrong guy. I believe this is the boat the Bills find themselves in with EJ.

Yes but it is a very slow moving boat. EJ lost us numerous games and it has been obvious to many that he cannot play. It would be great to trade him and let his salary count towards someone else's salary cap. I would rather they draft a kid with a better chance of being good.

 

As far as drafting a qb every year, I am all for it. Not always in the first round mind you but the position means SO much these days it should be the top priority.

 

2 2 12 44 Cyrus Kouandjio T Alabama

3 3 9 73 Preston Brown LB Louisville

4 4 9 109 Ross Cockrell DB Duke

5 5 13 153 Cyril Richardson G Baylor

 

The above is a list of players (excluding of course Watkins) that we drafted ahead of AJ McCarron in 2014. McCarron was a late 5th round pick. Even if this seems like hindsight, I would rather miss on a 5th round qb than with Cyril Richardson.

 

Ernie Accorsi once said that the most important position on a football team is quarterback, and the second most important is the backup quarterback.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

The answer varies situationally. I believe you do until you find one.

[zonabb]

I love questions about models with no data. And I will provide an answer with in data but a theoretical, evidenced-based argument instead. The one caveat or assumption to the model to assuage and concur with AlwaysBillieve is you do it when you don't have a franchise QB or when you do but need a backup.

 

This is a QB driven league, absent a franchise QB you , statistically, tend to miss the playoffs and don't win Super Bowls (I know there are a few outliers, Dilfer right?). Also, because I looked too, you don't win Super Bowls with low Wonderlic QBs. Look it up. Pretty unbelievable. I think I recall 22 or 23 is the cut off. The only one below that I think, of published or reputed scores, was Bradshaw and I believe he had dyslexia so the Wonderlic score probably is not valid in his case. A

 

Anyway, know these two things, you have no choice but to draft a QB every year. First, in come case you don't have a viable starter, meaning you keep drafting until you at least get one of those. Second, even with a viable but unproven non-franchise player, you still should hunt and try to develop one. Third, these players do developer and some do "get it" in the pros as late rounders. Being on the practice squad or running the scout team is valuable time.

 

Lastly, and I think the most important reason why is that in the current hyper-greedy and impatient NFL, one without a minor league, it's a way to give a guy some time. If you have a Tyrod Taylor, you draft a guy this year in the 3 or 4, someone with talent but maybe inexperienced (but not dumb! No low Wonderlics) who can be groomed without an issue. Let the team see what they have. Let him learn and practice. In all honesty, I think the league should allow some designated "free passes" to teams for the practice squad (or do they have one, I think players have to go through waivers), giving teams an incentive and time to draft a QB, let him stay on the PS a year, and then see what they have.

 

The Cousin-RGIII issues is a perfect example, albeit not in different years, making it even more. It's also an example of what happens when you don't employ that practice, given the Bills past on him about 30 spots before he was drafted for TJ Graham when Cousins and Wilson were still on the board. I'm not saying Cousins is franchise material, Wilson is. But you miss opportunities in the mid and late rounds in order to go with the best player available. Sometimes, you have to step out of that approach.

[PromoTheRobot]

Would you give up players like Preston Brown, Seantrel Henderson, Kyle Williams and Karlos Williams in order to roll the dice on John Skelton or Ryan Lindley? As unpopular an idea as it is, there are still 25 other positions on a football team you have to fill.

[machine gun kelly]

While maybe not every year, drafting a QB often is not a bad idea. Look at how many QB's came out of Green Bay. Even with Favre, they had Hasselback, Brunell, Rodgers, and i know I'm missing someone else.

 

As stated above, not necessarily a high draft pick, but where there could be value.

[GunnerBill]

I do not believe in the "draft a QB in the 1st every year" rationale, but I don't think there is anything fundamentally wrong with taking one somewhere in the draft each year, especially when you don't have an obvious franchise answer..... I certainly don't think in that position you should be going 2 years without drafting one. We have drafted 2 in the last 8 years. A first rounder and a seventh rounder.

[Marty McFly]

I love questions about models with no data. And I will provide an answer with in data but a theoretical, evidenced-based argument instead. The one caveat or assumption to the model to assuage and concur with AlwaysBillieve is you do it when you don't have a franchise QB or when you do but need a backup.

 

This is a QB driven league, absent a franchise QB you , statistically, tend to miss the playoffs and don't win Super Bowls (I know there are a few outliers, Dilfer right?). Also, because I looked too, you don't win Super Bowls with low Wonderlic QBs. Look it up. Pretty unbelievable. I think I recall 22 or 23 is the cut off. The only one below that I think, of published or reputed scores, was Bradshaw and I believe he had dyslexia so the Wonderlic score probably is not valid in his case. A

 

Anyway, know these two things, you have no choice but to draft a QB every year. First, in come case you don't have a viable starter, meaning you keep drafting until you at least get one of those. Second, even with a viable but unproven non-franchise player, you still should hunt and try to develop one. Third, these players do developer and some do "get it" in the pros as late rounders. Being on the practice squad or running the scout team is valuable time.

 

Lastly, and I think the most important reason why is that in the current hyper-greedy and impatient NFL, one without a minor league, it's a way to give a guy some time. If you have a Tyrod Taylor, you draft a guy this year in the 3 or 4, someone with talent but maybe inexperienced (but not dumb! No low Wonderlics) who can be groomed without an issue. Let the team see what they have. Let him learn and practice. In all honesty, I think the league should allow some designated "free passes" to teams for the practice squad (or do they have one, I think players have to go through waivers), giving teams an incentive and time to draft a QB, let him stay on the PS a year, and then see what they have.

 

The Cousin-RGIII issues is a perfect example, albeit not in different years, making it even more. It's also an example of what happens when you don't employ that practice, given the Bills past on him about 30 spots before he was drafted for TJ Graham when Cousins and Wilson were still on the board. I'm not saying Cousins is franchise material, Wilson is. But you miss opportunities in the mid and late rounds in order to go with the best player available. Sometimes, you have to step out of that approach.

Agree With our other needs on DEF I want a

ROUND 1: DL like Spence or Reed in or LB Ragland in Round 1 if we re lucky (or if both gone grab Saftey Cash).

ROUND 2: Depending what happens Round 1 I Want SS jeremy Cash or another NFL Starting ready LB or DL or go Safties Mills or kj miller,

ROUND 3: Depending what happens in 1st two picks Go LB or S (if not picked yet) or NFL Starting Ready RT.

ROUND 4: lets grab Braxton Miller as a WR2, a QB prospect in Rnd 4, or RT if we got LB or S in round 3.

ROUND 5: depending on our 4th pick we can grab FS Mills or S Killbrew or NFL ready LB or WR.

after that its watever maybe a long shot C, WR, LB but def a new super rookie Kicker cuz Carp might be on his last hook.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I don't think it's practical or feasible.

 

I submit for your consideration the Green Bay Packers as a model of a perennially successful franchise. Since 1992, they have been to the playoffs 18 out of 24 years, with no playoffless-stretch longer than 2 years (it must be specified there's a degree of divisional luck there, since they've made playoffs 3 times with a record of 7 losses)

 

The Packers have been blessed with long-term great QB play from Favre and from Rodgers.

 

During that 24 year stretch, they have drafted 14 QB (15 if you count the 1992 #19 pick they traded for Favre). They were particularly active in the early 90's, where they did draft a QB almost every year (including 1992!) but none higher than 5th round. In the late 90s on, they settled down to about every 3 years, including a 1st (Rodgers) and a 2nd round pick.

 

They have drafted 2 QB who had substantial trade value for them - Mark Brunnell (5) and Matt Hasselback (6). Brunell brought them a 3rd and a 5th, Hasselbeck a 7 place move-up in the 1st round plus swapping their 7th for a 3rd. So it's not always a waste of a pick.

 

In the same time span, despite having a starter who was aging and taking wear then NOT having a starter, the Bills have used only 6 picks on QB. In a 9 year stretch from 1995 to 2004 we drafted no QB. This would put us in the same draft space as perennial championship winners (NOT) like the Texans.

 

IMHO the Bills should draft a QB this year, and continue to do so every 2nd or 3rd year.

[Acantha]

Yes but it is a very slow moving boat. EJ lost us numerous games and it has been obvious to many that he cannot play. It would be great to trade him and let his salary count towards someone else's salary cap. I would rather they draft a kid with a better chance of being good.

 

As far as drafting a qb every year, I am all for it. Not always in the first round mind you but the position means SO much these days it should be the top priority.

 

2 2 12 44 Cyrus Kouandjio T Alabama

3 3 9 73 Preston Brown LB Louisville

4 4 9 109 Ross Cockrell DB Duke

5 5 13 153 Cyril Richardson G Baylor

 

The above is a list of players (excluding of course Watkins) that we drafted ahead of AJ McCarron in 2014. McCarron was a late 5th round pick. Even if this seems like hindsight, I would rather miss on a 5th round qb than with Cyril Richardson.

 

Ernie Accorsi once said that the most important position on a football team is quarterback, and the second most important is the backup quarterback.

None of that answers the question about how you handle the QBs on the roster. McCarron was drafted two years ago; if you're drafting a QB every year, how do you develop McCarron? And when the new guy doesn't light up the world in training camp and preseason during his first NFL year, do you just dump him next year for the new draftee?

 

The point that the Bills should have been taking flyers in the 5th round when EJ was their starter is different than the philosophy of drafting a QB every year, which just isn't practical in reality.

[Punching Bag]

if you ARE married to the philosophy, do you still somehow attack management for doing what you had been suggesting for years?

 

Always attack no matter if you suggested it in first place and criticized for not doing it faster - current press.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Would you give up players like Preston Brown, Seantrel Henderson, Kyle Williams and Karlos Williams in order to roll the dice on John Skelton or Ryan Lindley? As unpopular an idea as it is, there are still 25 other positions on a football team you have to fill.

 

Promo, what is to be gained by cherry-picking some of the Bills late round draft gems and asking if we'd swap them for noted late round draft dud QB? None of the "Gem" players you mention were options when Skelton (2010, 5th) or Lindley (2012, 6th) were drafted. Why not go Dud for Dud ask if we'd give up players like Zebrie Sanders or Mark Asper for Ryan Lindley? Or Ed Wang for John Skelton? Or Gem for Gem - how about giving up Ron Brooks for Kirk Cousins or TJ Graham for Russ Wilson? Cyril Richardson for AJ McCarron or Zack Mettenberger?

 

Quality of scouting matters, and then you roll the dice.

 

Answer me this: if it's so critical to fill other positions that it requires consistantly passing on QBs draft after draft, even when we lack an established starter or backup, how do perennial contender teams like Green Bay and NE* manage? Because NE* has managed to use 6 picks at QB since 2000, an interval where the Bills have used 3. Green Bay has managed to use 14 picks at QB since 1992 (15 if you count the Favre trade), an interval where we've used 4.

[jr1]

qb is the least of our worries these days

[PromoTheRobot]

Drafting QBs every year = No development + no commitment.

[thebandit27]

qb is the least of our worries these days

Wait, really?

 

I thought CB, RB, #1 WR, and TE were the least of our worries.

 

When you have an unproven commodity at the most important position in the game, it's unrealistic to call that the least of your worries

[Bill from NYC]

Drafting QBs every year = No development + no commitment.

Let's keep doing it in our own winning fashion!

[dave mcbride]

I love questions about models with no data. And I will provide an answer with in data but a theoretical, evidenced-based argument instead. The one caveat or assumption to the model to assuage and concur with AlwaysBillieve is you do it when you don't have a franchise QB or when you do but need a backup.

 

This is a QB driven league, absent a franchise QB you , statistically, tend to miss the playoffs and don't win Super Bowls (I know there are a few outliers, Dilfer right?). Also, because I looked too, you don't win Super Bowls with low Wonderlic QBs. Look it up. Pretty unbelievable. I think I recall 22 or 23 is the cut off. The only one below that I think, of published or reputed scores, was Bradshaw and I believe he had dyslexia so the Wonderlic score probably is not valid in his case. A

 

Anyway, know these two things, you have no choice but to draft a QB every year. First, in come case you don't have a viable starter, meaning you keep drafting until you at least get one of those. Second, even with a viable but unproven non-franchise player, you still should hunt and try to develop one. Third, these players do developer and some do "get it" in the pros as late rounders. Being on the practice squad or running the scout team is valuable time.

 

Lastly, and I think the most important reason why is that in the current hyper-greedy and impatient NFL, one without a minor league, it's a way to give a guy some time. If you have a Tyrod Taylor, you draft a guy this year in the 3 or 4, someone with talent but maybe inexperienced (but not dumb! No low Wonderlics) who can be groomed without an issue. Let the team see what they have. Let him learn and practice. In all honesty, I think the league should allow some designated "free passes" to teams for the practice squad (or do they have one, I think players have to go through waivers), giving teams an incentive and time to draft a QB, let him stay on the PS a year, and then see what they have.

 

The Cousin-RGIII issues is a perfect example, albeit not in different years, making it even more. It's also an example of what happens when you don't employ that practice, given the Bills past on him about 30 spots before he was drafted for TJ Graham when Cousins and Wilson were still on the board. I'm not saying Cousins is franchise material, Wilson is. But you miss opportunities in the mid and late rounds in order to go with the best player available. Sometimes, you have to step out of that approach.

Excellent post. I wouldn't say every year, but if your qb situation is bad, picking a QB once every couple of years is a good idea, and not via 7th round prayers. Rather, they should be solid early-to-mid-round picks. Why the Bills have refused to follow this approach boggles my mind. I mean, they passed on great mid-round prospects in 2012 because they had freaking Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyler Thigpen! Brad Smith was the third stringer.

Edited February 1, 2016 by dave mcbride

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Let's keep doing it in our own winning fashion!

Benching young QBs before they play a full season?

 

Drafting a QB every year is crazy talk, but always having a young draft pick developing behind whoever the starter is would be smart.

Edited February 1, 2016 by TheTruthHurts