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Charles Clay not worth the cash.


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It's amazing how many stupid hot takes there are here.

 

Tyrod, Clay, McCoy, and Sammy are not the problems with this team.

 

This times infinity.

 

I feel like anyone who thinks either of those 4 are the issue and starts a thread about it should almost be suspended from starting threads for a week. Thats how egregious I think it is to tear 4 of our best players apart every single week, even when they don't deserve it.

 

I literally stated in multiple threads this year, including the Clay one when he signed that the stat sheets wont be dependable to determine the effectiveness of the player of the contracts. I pointed out that we have a lot of playmakers and that from week to week, different ones will stand out on the stat sheet and others wont, even when making a big impact. Clay is a perfect example. On a run first team, he's making a big contribution in blocking and opening up lanes. As a receiving weapon, he's taken over games at times and been critical in multiple wins, but his totals will not reflect his talent simply because we don't throw enough and aren't using him at the capacity NE uses Gronk or Brees used Graham for so many years.

 

Clay is a flat out stud...and yes, he dropped a pass, but so has every HOF WR and TE in NFL history...it happens from time to time, but its not like he has a case of the dropsies. And he just happened to catch the long go ahead TD too after also opening lanes in the run game all day.

 

So no offense, but this thread is an epic fail at evaluating how good he is, what he means to this team, and if we are getting our value out of his contract.

Edited by Alphadawg7
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Whatever the going rate is for a guy w 500 yards on a .500 team is. Take it easy Clay fanboy. I didn't know you guys existed.

If that's the case then should everyone else take a pay cut? Including the coaches. Playing the TE position in Greg Roman's offense is a lot more complex than it is in most offenses. He was the OC for the 49ers from 2011-2014, here's Vernon Davis's stats from that time frame.

 

 

Season Team GP Rec Yards Avg Long TD

 

 

2011 San Francisco 49ers 16 67 792 11.8 44 6 2012 San Francisco 49ers 16 41 548 13.4 53 5 2013 San Francisco 49ers 15 52 850 16.3 64T 13 2014 San Francisco 49ers 14 26 245 9.4 29T 2

 

So in 12 games he has 50 Receptions for 519 yards and 3 TD's which is right on par with what Roman has been receiving out of his top TE elsewhere.

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I think it's a little different bc it was in div and he had the tag

Not at all. The tag certainly had an effect on his price, but that is not material. The price and his value are all that matter.

 

The intradivision argument is terrible. He was on the freaking Dolphins. The argument could be made if the Bills were neck and neck with a team at the top of the division and we took a top playmaker from them, but that wasn't the case. We took him from a mediocre Dolphins team that is making a habit of way overpaying for players. With or without Clay, the Phins aren't a team that a good team should worry about.

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Over paid some for him but we had to if we wanted to get him. He has been a top 5-10 TE this year. I'll take it. He is dangerous with the ball. As Tyrod continues to improve look for Clay to really get going. I think he will be a top 5 TE as he and Tyrod grow in the offense.

Edited by TheTruthHurts
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Tyrod is 6-4 as a starter and passes typically 25 passes or less per game. So you want to blame the WR's, TE's and RB's for not catching more balls?

 

I didn't take this topic as being directed at Clay. It's not his fault someone offered him that contract and I'm sure not blaming him for signing it. But to your point, why give a guy who's not going to be used that much a contract like that?

 

I want to clarify some things since it's easy to look at this in black and white instead of grey. It's also easy to miss some important details: Clay is overpaid, but not horrifically so if the whole contract is looked at from an average yearly cap hit. And to be fair it's early in his time with the Bills so things can change/improve. His contract has much more glaring issues than the average yearly cap hit, though. It's heavily guaranteed and it pays out heavily early on. That is trouble in the making. If he performs well he almost certainly will be looking for a new deal when his yearly salary shrinks Below his level of production. That will inflate his yearly salary average. Or ifhe performs poorly, he will only make it through the early portion of his deal where he is paid disproportionately well and wind up way overpaid with a much higher yearly average salary than it would appear. Lastly, the worst case is if he has a catastrophic injury or off the field incident that effectively ends his career. The Bills are on the hook for a lot of money early in the deal so they'd take a big hit.

http://overthecap.com/player/charles-clay/675/

 

Contract details for reference.

 

$24.5M over the first two seasons, all guaranteed. Then $13.5M over the last 3 years. $38M total. I know it was structured this way because the Dolphins had him tagged, but it's still weird deal.

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Some entities just never make a mistake. They're called machines.

even machines make mistakes. that's fact.

 

nothing works perfectly 100% of the time. nothing.

Edited by 87168
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I didn't take this topic as being directed at Clay. It's not his fault someone offered him that contract and I'm sure not blaming him for signing it. But to your point, why give a guy who's not going to be used that much a contract like that?

 

I want to clarify some things since it's easy to look at this in black and white instead of grey. It's also easy to miss some important details: Clay is overpaid, but not horrifically so if the whole contract is looked at from an average yearly cap hit. And to be fair it's early in his time with the Bills so things can change/improve. His contract has much more glaring issues than the average yearly cap hit, though. It's heavily guaranteed and it pays out heavily early on. That is trouble in the making. If he performs well he almost certainly will be looking for a new deal when his yearly salary shrinks Below his level of production. That will inflate his yearly salary average. Or ifhe performs poorly, he will only make it through the early portion of his deal where he is paid disproportionately well and wind up way overpaid with a much higher yearly average salary than it would appear. Lastly, the worst case is if he has a catastrophic injury or off the field incident that effectively ends his career. The Bills are on the hook for a lot of money early in the deal so they'd take a big hit.

http://overthecap.com/player/charles-clay/675/

 

Contract details for reference.

 

$24.5M over the first two seasons, all guaranteed. Then $13.5M over the last 3 years. $38M total. I know it was structured this way because the Dolphins had him tagged, but it's still weird deal.

With 12 to 25 passes in each Buffalo W not one guy (except the Miami game) is being used that much.

 

When you spread the ball around, 20 doesn't divide up to a large # for 6 guys. WR#1-3, TE's and RB's.

The Bills are one of the top rushing teams in the league and Clay has been a huge element in that because of his blocking and especially his versatility. He's extremely valuable and very good.

Excellent point. Plus pass protection for Taylor.

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The Bills are one of the top rushing teams in the league and Clay has been a huge element in that because of his blocking and especially his versatility. He's extremely valuable and very good.

Yep. The "overpayment" was arguably necessary, considering our need for the dual threat TE in this offense.

 

Remember Scott Chandler trying to block?

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we don't pay him to drop balls, it just happened, that's all. But just ignore the other plays he made.

 

Why don't you know if his run blocking helped... don't you pay attention? We ran for quite a few yards today.. again.

 

And writing 'meh' is really stupid. Just like your analysis of Clay.

 

I thought Bills fans were a band of brothers - united by our love for the team and the shared misery of our history.

 

We won't always agree, but I think we can agree to disagree civilly.

 

IMHO, ad hominem attacks have no place on TBD.

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I thought Bills fans were a band of brothers - united by our love for the team and the shared misery of our history.

 

We won't always agree, but I think we can agree to disagree civilly.

 

IMHO, ad hominem attacks have no place on TBD.

I will respectfully disagree. I'm not choosing to be a band of brothers with people just because we were born in the same area and root for the same team.

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Chandler was about 500 yards and 4td's per year on average for us. Always solid and durable. Clay will beat those numbers this year but not by much.

His best year in Miami was 759 yards and 6 TDs. Right now he's at 519 yards and 3 TDs. Looks like he'll finish somewhere around his best season in Miami. Overpaid somewhat? Yeah. Upgrade over Chandler? Yeah. And I think a bigger upgrade than just looking at chandlers numbers before this season, because he wouldn't fit well in this offense, like Clay does. Take fit into account and that we snatched a quality player from a divisional rival, and I'm good with the signing.
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He did fine today.

how? a crucial third down drop in a tie game with only minutes left?? Not a playmaker at all, had his hands positioned the wrong way, why? To make sure he could brace for the hit from the safety he looked at right as he dropped it. He let another important ball get intercepted against the giants when it was right in his hands. Tipped up another for a pick in a game this year that hit his hands (a game we lost) Catches third down passes for 1 yard and goes down for a gain of....1 yard. Did that quite a bit this year. Clay plays much smaller than his size would have him appear. His last catch was definitely an easy one. No safety and taylor hit him right in stride. who wouldnt have caught that?

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This season he is the highest paid tight end in the NFL. Its not my money, but his production doesn't justify it.

 

What if he wins us one game this year, does that justify it?

 

Here's the way I look at it, any decent free agent who has a track record of production in the NFL is always going to be an overpay situation. If we paid another 25% for Clay, it wouldn't matter because we still have the money to do it. Until we start losing the ability to acquire free agents because we don't have the cap space to pay them, I'd rather have the good players on my team than not.

 

Shady is overpaid too. Should we get rid of him so Pegula has more money in the bank?

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