Astro-Notes for Preseason

[Astrobot]

I was on a radio show in Buffalo, Toronto, and Rochester this morning. Here is a summary of what we talked about:

 

MY NOTES FOR THIS MORNING'S RADIO SHOW:
1. FRED JACKSON
-Likely the most-lovable player in the running with Jim Kelly and Darryl Talley
-You know and love the rags to riches story: 2006 FA out of Coe College
-But GM's need to make decisions with their heads and not with their heart. Fred was actually kept on 3 years too long.
-Ben Volin @BenVolin 13h13 hours ago Fred Jackson joins Marshawn Lynch in Seattle, per NFL Network. Who knew that the best backfield in the league is the 2009 ‪#‎Bills‬?
-2011 was #1 in Pass Blocking Efficiency (100%), 2012: 70th (96%), 2013: 110th (96%), 2014: 135th (92%)
-Probably lasted 3 years longer than he should have statistically
-YAC per Attempt: 2010: 10th in elusive rating-how hard he is to bring down -Yards after contact per attempt (58.7); 2011: 8th (80); 2012: 32nd (50); 2013: 64th (39); 2014: 68th (43).
-6 negatively-rated games last year per PFF, 3.7 ypc, 7 negatively-rated games in 2012; 2011 (injured); 8 negatively-rated games in 2010
-a star in Weeks 1-6 in 2011, injured Week 11-16
-played one game this year, got 10 snaps, did decently, but handwriting has been on the wall for 3 years.
-Breakaway Percentage: 2010: 46th (28%); 2011: 12th (45%); 2012: 102nd (3%); 2013: 113th (15%); 2014:127th (9%)
-Yards Per Pass Route Run (yards on a per route basis): 2010: 100th (.76 yds); 2011: 27th (1.86 yds); 2012: 42nd (1.36 yds); 2013: 66th (1.39 yds); 2014:37th (1.76 yds); 2015: 171st

2. TYROD AS STARTER:
-I thought it would be Cassel early in the game. He was the Alex Smith percentage passer that OL could block for, had great play action fake, and wouldn't make the big mistake we kept seeing from the then-inconsistent EJ.

-As OL jelled, I thought it would be EJ, as he needs that extra second to get through his reads. You saw that in the PGH game; it allowed him to see Clay uncovered, and it allowed him to throw downfield to Tobais Palmer. EJ (who had already shown better footwork and arm motion) showed better accuracy, decisiveness, confidence, and consistency in preseason. He was PFF's #1 rated QB overall in preseason, #2 passing (Tyrod was tied with him), #1 in yards per attempt (11.9), #1 in NFL QB Rating, but #16 running (Tyrod was #1). EJ had 4 TD, 0 INT. He's the keeper as Tyrod's backup; Cassel is not needed in this offense with Tyrod's explosive factor.

-Tyrod was #2 passing, #1 running, and #6 in completion percentage (EJ=#22). So running ability (making him a nightmare for defensive coordinators---10% of his dropbacks were runs) plus accuracy made him the starter over EJ despite not throwing for any TDs in preseason. It's possible he also makes Fred Jackson, a blocking RB more expendable.

3. WHO STOOD OUT:
Deonte Thompson until his injury (was highest Bills WR in Yds/Rec at 24); Dez Lewis started coming on in Game 4—love his height and he can build NFL strength on the PS
All 4 QBs were plus-rated (until Game 4 with Simms). Passer ratings above Joe Flacco
John Miller surprised everyone, stepped in at RG never looked back, our OGs=Pro Bowl. Even last 2 years, our run average inside the tackles has been strong.
Gragg will make it hard to cut him—is leading receiver in preseason
Corbin Bryant and Red Bryant as formidable DL depth (however, we have 5 DL on wrong side of 30)

4. WHO DIDN'T STAND OUT:
Ronald Darby, but he's young, Rex likes the depth and talent at corner, and I'll have to trust him on this one.
Our trainers,
slick PR dept (Jackson release, Tyrod same day, then saying McCoy may not be full go for Gm1)
Friday, Bills released 17 players and put CB Leodis McKelvin on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list.
They are 3 over the limit, and they have until 4 pm today to be at 53. As to whether they will cut Cassel, he's $4.2 million against the cap, it sounds good. A trade would even be better. That's why I think he hasn't been let go.

5. VULNERABLE FOR FINAL CUTS: Vulnerable as final cuts: Carrington, Urbik or Freeman, Cassel, Steward.
Defensive best for #Bills:
Tarpley +4.4, Brooks +3.0, Carrington +2.5, Fluellen +2.3, Rambo +1.9, Noel +1.6, R. Johnson +1.4, Duke W. +1.2
Now at 57, Prediction on final 53/practice squad. Joe Bus has already done this, and I'm not too far away.
QB (3) Taylor, Manuel is the #2 per Vic Carucci, and Cassel (Simms was released).
RB (5) McCoy, Karlos W, Brown, Dixon, Felton as FB. (Cut: Bronson Hill, Cierre Wood). McCoy had a slight hamstring tear and isn't full go yet.
TE (4) Clay, Gragg, Gray, Mulligan, (O'Leary on PS; I think he was mothballed)
WR (7) Watkins, Woods, Harvin, Easley, Thigpen, Goodwin and Hogan. Andre Davis, Dezmin Lewis and Tobias Palmer were cut, with any or all of them going to the PS. Deonte Thompson is waived/injured.
OL (7) Wood, OG's are Incognito, Miller, OT Glenn, Henderson, Swing OT is Kouandjio, OCOG=Urbik, and OCOG=Dalton Freeman (Chandler PS). Richardson has been cut so for now, Freeman sticks. Cut are Darryl Johnson, Will Campbell, and Alex Kupper.
DL (8) MWilliams, KWilliams, Hughes, Dareus, CBryant, RBryant, Carrington, Stefan Charles. Fluellen really showed he still has it vs Lions but he's cut. B.J. Larsen was injured and never got it going in camp, IK Enemkpali lining up twice offsides on same series cuts him.
LB (5) Bradham, PresBrown, Lawson, Reddick, RJohnson, Tarpley (Steward, Quentin Groves cut)
CB (5) Gilmore, Robey, McKelvin, Butler, Darby, Brooks; (McKelvin, reinjured ankle, is designated NFI, out for 6 weeks) (Noel, Cockrell was cut)
S (5) Graham, AWilliams, DWilliams, Rambo, Meeks or a waiver signing.
Spec: (5) Sanford, Gay, Schmidt, Sanborn, plus Carpenter scared straight. Carpenter has made a little over 90 percent of his field goal attempts in his two years with Buffalo.

6. PRACTICE SQUAD:
PS: Simms, Dez Lewis, Andre Davis, BJLarsen, Nick O'Leary, Cierre Wood/Bronson Hill, Noel, and Ladler (who was on last year)

7. BRASH PREDICTIONS:
---Patriots take 3 of the first 4, but lose to us Week 2. They beat us in Foxboro by deflating the football.
---Bucky Brooks has Mario Williams, DE, Buffalo Bills, as DMVP (Lavonte David or JJ Watt): The energetic pass rusher takes down Michael Strahan's vaunted sack record in his first season under Rex Ryan. Most importantly, he leads the Bills back into the playoffs after a 15-year absence.
---Judy Battista has Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles, as OMVP. (Tyrod Taylor, Amari Cooper, Melvin Gordon, Abdullah, Watkins)
---Michael Silver's DROY: Ronald Darby, CB, Buffalo Bills. Playing CB for Rex Ryan has its advantages, especially with a fierce front four.
----Bills will be 2nd in Defense Overall; Seahawks 1, Bills 2, Broncos 3, Chiefs 4, Cowboys 5, Jets 6, Fins 7.
----Bills will again take a CB in the first three rounds of the 2016 draft. Don't believe Rex.
----Incognito is going to the Pro Bowl with the healthy members of the Bills' DL and Watkins/Harvin/Clay. ----McCoy will be useful but not vital, as it'll be RB by Committee with Karlos, Boobie, and Bryce
----Dolphins and Bills go to the playoffs; NEP stays home.
----You'll see more read-option because of Tyrod at QB (Fake handoff to RB, pitch to Percy Harvin).

8. SCHEDULE REVIEW AND RECORD PREDICTION:
---Bills 10-6
---Dolphins 10-6 (we win 1 of 2, and we get the tiebreaker. Playing Fins in Miami in Week 3 is advantage, Week 9=fun)
---NEP 8-8 (Pats win Game 11 at home on Nov 11 but we win Game 2)
---NYJ 5-11 (we win 2—We don't play Jersey Jets until Nov 12 Week 10 NFL Network game in NJ; then last game of season at home)

[Dr. Who]

This is just tremendously informative and interesting.

I hope you don't mind. I'm going to copy paste this at BBMB.

I'll be clear you are the author.

There is a dearth of this kind of informed posting over there.

[Coach Tuesday]

Well that was a sick post.

[gordong]

Thank you for this.... Awesome job!

[YoloinOhio]

Thanks Astro! I am now smarter (for the moment)

[Solomon Grundy]

So PFF had EJ Manuel the #1 rated QB in the preseason. Heads over at WGR are about to explode. Take that for analytics.

[Chandler#81]

So a DL of Williams, Bryant, Bryant & Williams, a nickel-back named Nickel and toss in a couple more Williams'. Our seamstress has a great gig!

 

Excellent analysis, as always, Astro!

[The Dean]

Astro---Great Post.

 

But I beg you, a little white space, please.

[chris heff]

Thanks and where have you been?

[Beerball]

Ranks!!!

[Mark Vader]

Great work Astro. Love to read your posts.

 

I think we need to seriously consider taking a DE in the 1st or 2nd round next year. As you stated we have too many of them on the wrong side of 30 on our roster.

 

Was a bit surprised that you did not list the Rams as a team in the top defensive rankings. I think they are easily in the top 5.

[JinVA]

Always enjoy these. Thanks Astro. Well done.

[Nihilarian]

Good stuff Astro!

[Bad Things]

Good stuff, Astro. Thanks again!

 

Let's go Buffalo!!

[GG]

So you are the Bills Super Fan on Sirius? Great to hear.

[Green Lightning]

Beautiful Sunday morning on the patio with a six-shot Americano, nice breeze and now this. A perfect morning. Thanks Astro!

[The Poojer]

 

 

---Judy Battista has Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles, as OMVP. (Tyrod Taylor, Amari Cooper, Melvin Gordon, Abdullah, Watkins)

 

Interesting predictions for OMVP