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Bills could be all but eliminated before their 4:25 kickoff on Sunday


Big Turk

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K, so using the playoff machine, in week 16 i put

 

Start with Defense rankings that is THE easiest way to go. That is a Bills sweep.

 

Week 16 - KC @ Pitt. Pitt Wins, SD @ SF, SF Wins, Ravens @ Houston, Ravens Wins, Broncos @ BenGals, Donk's Win,

Week 17 - Brownies @ Ravens, Ravens Win, BenGals @ Stillers, Stillers Win, SD @ KC, KC wins,

 

@ 10-6 the Bills get the 6th seed, And oh yeah, and you need the NFL Gods @ your back

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Let's assume for a minute, Chargers/49ers is a 50/50, Ravens/Texans is 75/25 for Ravens, and Chiefs/Steelers is 50/50, all pretty reasonable approximations using point spreads, power ratings and homefield etc. That's means the chances of all 3 Chargers,Ravens and Chiefs winning is 1 in 5 at best. The chances of the three 49ers,Texans and Steelers all winning is about 1 in 16. Some other combination of winners and losers is about 1 in 1.5 or better. So most likely our game will mean something as scenario 3 is far more likely. The team I'm most worried about is San Diego. San Fran has little motivation going in, and if San Diego wins, going into KC and winning is something they have done before.

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I'd be super excited with a 10-6 record even if it doesn't get us into the playoffs.

 

9-7 is just a game above .500. But a 10-6 is clearly the record of a good team.

 

10-6 would be a great confidence booster for next year and could help attract FAs.

 

Is it worse to go 10-6 and miss the playoffs? Or go 10-6, make the playoffs, but lose in the first round?

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After playing with the playoff machine, seems like there are still many scenarios in which the Bills can sneak in. Heck, even one where they can get the fifth seed if Baltimore falls apart.

 

Ultimately we really want SF to beat SD and DEN to beat CIN this week. If that happens and the Bills win, a lot of options open up for Week 17 regardless the outcome of the other games this week.

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After playing with the playoff machine, seems like there are still many scenarios in which the Bills can sneak in. Heck, even one where they can get the fifth seed if Baltimore falls apart.

 

Ultimately we really want SF to beat SD and DEN to beat CIN this week. If that happens and the Bills win, a lot of options open up for Week 17 regardless the outcome of the other games this week.

Baltimore is running out of cornerbacks
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Don't forget this is a defense without Kiko. I have a feeling he will be very motivated in the 2015 season. If we can keep the core of the defense and focus on some big name OLmen in the offseason, we will be a contender next year. First time in forever I've actually felt that way.

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Win one more and mission accomplished!

 

Seriously, the barometer for success for this team can not be making the playoffs, exclusively. This team is a QB away from being very, very good.

I would to add O-line to this. In fact, I think Orton (who's biggest downside is his lack of mobility, IMO) would be a much more effective QB with a stable pocket.
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No chance that KC beats Pittsburgh. Literally none. I am not worried.

Pittsburgh has both of their remaining games at home. That has to work in their favor.

 

 

 

I would to add O-line to this. In fact, I think Orton (who's biggest downside is his lack of mobility, IMO) would be a much more effective QB with a stable pocket.

I was at the game yesterday and will tell you that, with the exception of a few plays, Orton had time to make decent throws. They really were not throwing downfield, so he only needs a couple of seconds. On most throws he was untouched and just rushed throws or simply was off target. I will be interested to see the "Kyle Orton unforced errors" thread to see if his research backs up what I saw.

 

Edited by Maddog69
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If San Diego playing Saturday beats San Fran and then KC, and Baltimore win the early games on Sunday Bills are eliminated before they play unless the improbable week 17 tie in factors in.

 

With Pittsburgh playing Cincy and San Diego playing KC, the winner of both of those games would have 10 wins as would Baltimore and with 3 of them being 10 win teams in the AFC Buffalo would be eliminated...

 

You gotta be kidding me bro. God. Lie to me at least. :death:

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What's crazy about Pittsburgh is that they smoke the good teams, and get beat by the crappy teams (losses to the Jets, TB, and Cleveland). I expect them to trounce KC and Cincy. I don't think KC matches up well with them either.

agree. Pitt doesn't lose "big" games at home. Leveon Bell will run all over the Chefs and Pitt's defensive weakness, defending the deep ball, won't be an issue with Alex Smith. Edited by YoloinOhio
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