PTS

"No such studies are coming out?" You serious? Let's throw out some blatant misinformation and then say this discussion should not be continued? Every day there are more and more studies, data, stories that state everyone is spreading COVID variants, vaxxed or not. Simple Google search will show that form leading medical institutions. https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2021/new-data-on-covid-19-transmission-by-vaccinated-individuals ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hapless sez: OK let's Do This Thing and break this down. The original statement was that vaccinated people are just as likely to transmit Covid as unvaccinated people. As far as I know, that is still considered to be incorrect, and the study referenced in the link is being misinterpreted. There are two parts to considering how likely a person is to transmit Covid: 1) how likely they are to get an infection in the first place - makes sense, right, if you're not infected you can't transmit it? 2) whether any infection they get is as likely to be transmitted - this is believed to be related to the viral titer carried by an infected person Let's get this out of the way right up front: No responsible scientist or public health official anywhere, EVER, claimed that vaccines would completely prevent covid (as some have said was claimed). The best effectiveness claimed was 94-95% against symptomatic disease, ~92% against any infection. The other claim is higher protection against severe infection/hospitalization, which is still true. With the UK variant "Alpha", 1) Public Health UK published peer-reviewed studies showing the Pfizer vaccine (for example) was 92% effective at preventing infection, meaning a vaccinated person was 12x less likely to be infected at all. 2) In addition, a CDC study of healthcare workers showed that vaccinated people carried substantially lower viral titer, and the study quoted by the UMN article @Coach Tuesday linked showed that the "attack rate" (secondary infections) of a vaccinated, infected person was ~3x lower (11%). So the OVERALL chance of a vaccinated person transmitting covid "Alpha" was infection rate * attack rate:(1-.92)* (.11) or 0.0088, less than 1% - relative to an unvaccinated person (1)*(.31) or 31%. These data were the basis for the current NFL rules, estimating a vaccinated person is about 35x less likely to be infected then transmit Covid after a close contact. That was Then, This is now. With the "Delta" variant which is now responsible for estimated >90% of new cases in the US, the basic reproduction rate (number of people infected by an infected person in the absence of vaccines or other mitigation like masks) is higher - Ro of 5-6 for Delta vs 2-3 for Alpha. The best published data I've seen on vaccine effectiveness against Delta, is again, from Public Health UK. (Israel claims have been quoted in the press, but I can't find published studies with details of data set, data collection etc). 1) Public Health UK published peer-reviewed studies showing the Pfizer vaccine (for example) was 78% effective at preventing infection, meaning a vaccinated person was 4.5x less likely to be infected at all. 2) I have not yet seen data on attack rates for Delta yet, but data have shown that a vaccinated, infected person and an unvaccinated, infected person are carrying the same titer. So let's make a reasonable assumption here and say that they're equally likely to infect someone else. The attack rate for "Alpha" for an unvaccinated person was given in the UMN article as 31%. If we combine this with an Ro ~2x higher, that means potentially an attack rate of ~60%. So the overall chance of a vaccinated person transmitting covid "Delta" may be (1-.78)*(.6) or 13% relative to an unvaccinated person (1)*(.6) or 60%. The same NFL rules may not work when a vaccinated person is only about 5x less likely to be infected then transmit Covid. And it may, in an NFL facility, be higher chance of transmission, because many players chose to be vaccinated with J&J, for which we lack good data on effectiveness vs. any infection for Delta as yet. Two take-home points: 1) the NFL rules about vaccinated people being tested 1x every 14 days, not masking, and not being quarantined upon exposure seem relatively reasonable if a vaccinated person has less than 1% chance to transmit covid 2) but now, if a vaccinated person has about ~13% chance to transmit covid, things look different epidemiologically. The rules probably need to change, and soon, to maintain a reasonable level of protection for unvaccinated players. Hope this clarifies a bunch of stuff and if questions/corrections/better data Hit Me in PM - I'm not an epidemiologist and sometimes I slip up. Thanks!

We are on the verge of possibly winning our first SB. I don't trade Mitch unless someone gives us something we simply can't refuse like a first round pick. Even then I would have to think about it because this team is in win-now mode and I rather have Mitch as a backup just in case.

I haven't really followed the NFL rules, would these two not be forced to sit out five days if they were vaccinated? If that is the case, I'm assuming it's because of the previous notion that unvaxxed spread more of the virus? If that is the case, what is the NFL going to do as everyday a new study comes out that shows the transmission of the variants is also just as possible from a vaxxed individual.

Dear God, I live in Charlotte and saw this interview on the news and I remember thinking this reporter sounds like Jerry Sullivan. Should have known it was.

Is this the week they are sponsored by Target?

Thank you. I was thinking the same. Calling Fred unproductive is insane.

Please RBs like Brown are a dime a dozen. Jackson was and would remain a difference maker on this team on and off the field.

Movement broke ground on their new headquarters about three months ago just a mile from my home. I live right on the NC/SC Charlotte border (SC side). Companies are moving here left and right.

Eichel is a stud. Don't let Canadian bias get in the way. The kid was one of Team USA's best players at the World Championships this month playing against professionals while McDavid was getting shut down in the OHL finals by 20 year old kids. Both will be Hall of Famers, but I'm not ready to say McDavid is clearly #1 anymore ... and a lot of scouts are saying the same after Eichel's IIHF performance. Sure Bylsma wasn't Buffalo's first choice but that doesn't mean he's not a damn good coach. He got a lot of flack for early playoff exits but everyone has forgotten that MA Fleury was putting up horrendous performances in between the pipes. He was the main reason for most if not all of those series losses.

I wish my woman was more carefree, although, this seems to be a problem with most women my friends are dating or married to. Women tend to be prone to emotional crises when something doesn't go there way or if someone else pisses them off. The best women are ones that just don't care about stuff they don't control and don't let it bother them.

I was 18 years old and working my first real job at Tops. White trash customer comes in with his son and berates my manager for something she didn't have any control over. I believe we didn't carry some brand he wanted. She started crying. I went up to him and told him to take his business elsewhere. He threatens me and says they'll be waiting outside for me. Long story short, customer owned a construction company and I guess spent a lot of money at our store. The store manager told me I HAD to apology or else. I knew I did nothing wrong but after getting pressed hard to apologize, I told the manager that I would meet the customer before the start of my next shift. I never showed up again.

The red helmets are not hideous but they are no where near the perfection of the white helmets.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/fcc-chairman-tom-wheeler-net-neutrality-plan-google-115502.html We can't see what's in the bill. Congress can't see what's in the bill. Yet, Google, a big corporation, is allowed to see it and tweak it. Are you freaking kidding me? Seriously America, wake the hell up. I've said all along that this net neutrality crap will only benefit the big corporations. It will do the opposite of what they are saying it will do.

After playing with the playoff machine, seems like there are still many scenarios in which the Bills can sneak in. Heck, even one where they can get the fifth seed if Baltimore falls apart. Ultimately we really want SF to beat SD and DEN to beat CIN this week. If that happens and the Bills win, a lot of options open up for Week 17 regardless the outcome of the other games this week.

That's is rather weird as a fake story over the summer swept around Charlotte that Newton broke his leg in a car accident.

On a slightly similar note, a few work buddies and I were on a trip out west about 10 years ago. We were driving through the desert from LA to Vegas when we saw some object fly through the sky at a ridiculous rate of speed, appear to stop and then jet off into another direction. This was during the day as well. We all at had a WTF reaction in that car. I've seen fighter jets in person before, this was something else but most likely some sort of military aircraft.

If the Bills go 4-0, I'll give you $100 bucks. If they lose one, you give me $10. Like those odds? Personally, I think they go 2-2 with one of the losses being heartbreaking. These might not be the same old Bills, but this is still Buffalo we are talking about.

The amount of data tampering by the NOAA is staggering. Won't be so easy 20, 50 or 75 years from now since we have this thing called the interwebs. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/noaa-data-tampering-reaches-a-tipping-point/

Are you trying to prove his point?

Fred Jackson is one of the best players the Bills have had since the Super Bowl era. Period. I just hope we give this guy one chance at the playoffs.

I assume that means YES.

It's on Fox and the pilot was actually really good. So expect that it will be cancelled in three weeks.

Love Kefir. I've had some digestive issues this year and it really settles my stomach among other suspected benefits. I usually drink a cup each morning and buy it at Aldi's. Much cheaper than the local grocery stores.

I'd argue that Brad Friedel is still better and I think Guzan might be level with him. Tim's make great saves but his play in two World Cups isn't up to par with even his best. I think Neuer and Buffon are the top tier elite keepers. After that, I think Tim is in the next tier of maybe 10 keepers whose placement changes as their form does.

Best thread ever! Only I think soccer should use American football rules. Every goal should count for six points and a PK awarded after each score for the extra point. That way a 3-2 game becomes 21-14 and we have high scoring! And if that's not enough, maybe we should award three points for kicking the ball over the net. Awesome sauce, I mean, how sweet would that be? Additionally, we should have a break after each change of possession so we can watch five commercials in a row before getting back to the game. Sometimes there is just too much acutal game playing going on in soccer. I mean those guys are always running. It's hard for me to get up and get beer because of it. Plus, I think we should add a little hockey and basketball into it. Players should wear skates on the grass and there should be a little basket over the net where if you kick the ball through it, your team can automatically win. And frack it, get rid of the skates, get on a broom and lets call it quidditch.