Updated: The AFC Playoff Picture

[It's in My Blood]

I

[Reddy Freddy]

NFL.com: If the season ended today

 

CBS Sports: 2014 NFL Playoff Picture

 

Sports Club Stats: National Football League Playoff Chances

 

The Bills fall to 11th in the AFC. Hopes are flickering.

 

If New England loses to San Diego tonight, it seems to me that our easiest path to the playoffs would be winning the AFC East. Would need Bills to win out, Pats to lose 1 of their next 2 games (and to Bills of course), and Miami to lose 1 of their final 3 games. Piece of cake.

[VA Bills Fan]

Need the Jets to close out the season beating Pats and Fins...good luck

[ganesh]

And the Panthers are just a game behind for the top spot in the NFC South with a 4-8 record. It was so weird to see the Saints go to Pittsburgh and destroy the Steelers and then come home and lay a big egg against a divisional rival.

 

For the Bills post-season chances:

Losses by Chiefs, Browns, Dolphins were helpful

Wins by Houston, Steelers and Baltimore hurt them.

Also hurt by another conference loss. The bills have the worst conference record at 4-6. At least that will not change next week.

 

And next weeks slate of games that matter:

 

Oakland @ Kansas City - Can Oakland win back-to-back games. (KC goes to 7-7)

Miami @ NE - If NE takes care of business, then Miami is 7-7

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta - This one is troublesome. Pittsburgh probably wins against Atlanta's lousy defense (PIT 9-5)

Houston @ Indy - Indy should win at Home. (Houston is 7-7)

Bengals @ Cleveland - Rooting for Bengals to win (Cleveland goes down to 7-7, Bengals will be 10-4-1)

Denver @ SD - Denver gets up and wins on the road (SD - 9-5 or 8-6 assuming they defeat NE tonight).

Jacksonville @ Baltimore - Baltimore should win at home (8-6).

 

Baltimore and Pittsburgh will have it easy and I can very easily see three teams from the ultra-competitive AFC North to make the playoffs or SD bounces one of them.

 

The Bills really have a chance only if they can win the remaining three.

Edited December 8, 2014 by ganesh

[26CornerBlitz]

And the Panthers are just a game behind for the top spot in the NFC South with a 4-8 record. It was so weird to see the Saints go to Pittsburgh and destroy the Steelers and then come home and lay a big egg against a divisional rival.

 

For the Bills post-season chances:

Losses by Chiefs, Browns, Dolphins were helpful

Wins by Houston, Steelers and Baltimore hurt them.

Also hurt by another conference loss. The bills have the worst conference record at 4-6. At least that will not change next week.

 

Assuming an ATL loss at GB, It's half a game I believe with them at 4-8-1.

Edited December 8, 2014 by 26CornerBlitz

[Koufax]

It is very unlikely we make the playoffs and that has been the case since we dropped two games in five days to the Chiefs and Fish.

 

But we are heading into the final three weeks of the season, still very much alive with multiple realistic scenarios.

 

And we actually have a number of scenarios where we make it at 9-7, and it is actually impossible for that to be eliminated next week, so we will hit week 16 no matter what with our playoff hopes alive even if we lose to Green Bay. The reason for that is there is a reasonable chance all of the AFC North except Cin finishes 9-7 (or at least that the possibility of that is in place heading in to week 17) and if that happens Cleveland eliminates Baltimore and Pittsburgh first on conference record and then we beat Cleveland on head to head.

 

The biggest game seems to be having the Browns beat the Bengals next week, otherwise all of our 9-7 scenarios disappear (unless the Raiders could win in KC, which we can certainly root for), and many of our 10-6 do as well.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

Anyway, still alive, and getting ready to play at home against the Packers with them having a short week. Not an easy game, but I think the most winnable of our three HOF QB matchups in December.

[djp14150]

The updated playoff picture.

 

division leaders: New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver

 

San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore have 8 wins

Buffalo, Miami, Cleveland, Kansas city, and houston have 7 wins

 

 

How can Buffalo make the playoffs......assuming Buffalo wins out.....

 

In order to win the division they need New England to lose to Miami and the Jets, Miami to lose to either Minnesota or the Jets,

 

To get a wild card......Buffalo wins out and:

 

1. miami to lose 1

2 houston to lose 1

 

and:

 

3 of these 4:

A. Cincinati to lose 2

B Baltimore to lose 2

C Pittsburgh to lose 2

D Cleveland to lose 1

either:

 

and:

D San diego to lose 2

E Kansas City to lose 1

 

 

In plan english.

 

Buffalo finishes 10-6, Miami at 9-7.

 

In the AFC North all non division winners have less than 10 wins

Houston is 9-7

and the 3rd place team in the AFC west has less than 10 wins.

 

the other option is the 2nd place in the AFC north can have 10 wins, but the AFC West 2nd place team has less than 10 wins.

 

schedules remaining:

 

 

NE MIA jets BUF

BUF GB oak ne

MIA ne MIN JETS

CIN cle DEN pit

BAL JAX hou CLE

PIT atl KC CIN

CLE CIN car balt

IND hou DAL tenn

HOU indy BALT JAX

DEN sd cin OAK

SD DEN sf kc

KC OAK pit SD

 

 

on paper

 

San Diego and Cincinnati have difficult schedules left its a real possiblity they end up with less than 10 wins.

Pittsburgh also has a difficult schedule

 

Ideally you want KC and SD to end up both 9-6 and they play each other where the winner gets one wild card. Even better---SD ends up 8-7 playing at 9-6 KC and beat them.

 

Another scenario to pay attention to.....

 

Cleveland winning out at 10-6...they could have the tiebreaker advantages at 10-6 on both Pittsburgh and Baltimore.. Cincinnati would end up 10-5-1 for the division, then the rest end up 10-6...Clevelenad would get 2nd place. Then Buffalo would have the tiebreaker advantage on Cleveland.

 

If buffalo and clevalnd are tied at 10-6 both in 2nd place and SD or KC was alone in 2nd at 10-6 (other at 9-7), then KC/Sd get seed 5 because of better conference record. Buffalo gets #6 due to H2H win over Cleveland.

Edited December 8, 2014 by djp14150

[djp14150]

In the NFC its a little less complicated....

 

Even though SF lost today they do have head to head tie breaker advantages on Dallas and Philadelphia due to beating both. Dallas and Philadeklphia are alos hurt by having gone undefeated against the AFC which will hurt them on conference tiebreakers.

 

If SF and DET were tied for a tie at 10-6 it could get into the deeper tiebreakers of strenght of victory and strength of schedule.If DEt beats CHI and ends up 10-6 they will have the tiebreaker based on common game record.

 

If Detroit stays within one game of GB before week 17 rematch then that game would be for the division.

 

Seattle at Arizona in week 16 also looks like it will be for the division.

 

Based on H2H Dallas over Seattle

Seattle over Philadelphia

Arizona beat Dallas

Arizona beat Philadelphia

SF beat Dallas

SF beat Philadelphia

Seattle beat GB

Arizona beat Detroit

Green Bay beat Philadelphia

[QCity]

Sports Club Stats has us down to a 4.5% chance at making the playoffs.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Sports Club Stats: National Football League Playoff Chances

[peterpan]

 

Sports Club Stats: National Football League Playoff Chances

 

We have played 8 games vrs 7 teams on that list (Miami twice) and are 2-6.

 

That is why we won't make the playoffs again this year.

 

You can't expect to give away games like the chiefs game or the Houston game and expect to make the playoffs.

Edited December 8, 2014 by peterpan

[Coach55]

For those who think the playoffs are out of reach this point, please note the very possible scenario.

1. Bills win last 3 games (GB is at home coming off Monday night, Oakland is terrible and NE should have the conference locked up for week 17)

2. Remaining 11 teams win at home against AFC contenders and win all games against non-contenders and lose on road games vs NFC Contenders.

 

End result

NE - MIA (W), @NYJ (W), BUF (L) - 12 wins, conference champs

Den - @SD (L), @CIN (L), OAK (W) - 11 wins, wins West

Ind - HOU (W), @DAL (L), @TEN (W) - 11 wins, wins South

Pit - @ATL (W), KC (W), CIN (W) - 11 wins, wins North

Bal - JAX (W), @HOU (L), CLE (W) - 10 wins, 5/6 cede

Buf - GB (W), @OAK (W), @NE (W) - 10 wins, 5/6 cede

Cin - @CLE (L), DEN (W), @PIT (L) - 9.5 wins

Cle - CIN (W), @CAR (W), @BAL (L) - 9 wins

KC - OAK (W), @PIT (L), SD (W) - 9 wins

SD - DEN (W), @SF(L), @KC (L) - 9 wins

MIA - @NE (L), MIN (W), NYJ (W) - 9 wins

HOU - @IND (L), BAL (W), JAX (W) - 9 wins

 

Bottom line, this isn't the only scenario, but it is very plausible as many AFC teams are going to cannibalize each other. The Bills just need to win. They beat Green Bay this weekend and they are very alive. They lose, the season is over.

[26CornerBlitz]

Very possible?

[Canadian Bills Fan]

LOL

 

 

CBF

[BuffaloBaumer]

I'm having a tough time ranking how improbable those scenarios are. Each one seems crazier than the last....and it starts with Buffalo winning 3 games left.

[ko12010]

For those who think the playoffs are out of reach this point, please note the very possible scenario.

1. Bills win last 3 games (GB is at home coming off Monday night, Oakland is terrible and NE should have the conference locked up for week 17)

2. Remaining 11 teams win at home against AFC contenders and win all games against non-contenders and lose on road games vs NFC Contenders.

 

End result

NE - MIA (W), @NYJ (W), BUF (L) - 12 wins, conference champs

Den - @SD (L), @CIN (L), OAK (W) - 11 wins, wins West

Ind - HOU (W), @DAL (L), @TEN (W) - 11 wins, wins South

Pit - @ATL (W), KC (W), CIN (W) - 11 wins, wins North

Bal - JAX (W), @HOU (L), CLE (W) - 10 wins, 5/6 cede

Buf - GB (W), @OAK (W), @NE (W) - 10 wins, 5/6 cede

Cin - @CLE (L), DEN (W), @PIT (L) - 9.5 wins

Cle - CIN (W), @CAR (W), @BAL (L) - 9 wins

KC - OAK (W), @PIT (L), SD (W) - 9 wins

SD - DEN (W), @SF(L), @KC (L) - 9 wins

MIA - @NE (L), MIN (W), NYJ (W) - 9 wins

HOU - @IND (L), BAL (W), JAX (W) - 9 wins

 

Bottom line, this isn't the only scenario, but it is very plausible as many AFC teams are going to cannibalize each other. The Bills just need to win. They beat Green Bay this weekend and they are very alive. They lose, the season is over.

Dude this is the part we NEVER do. All the scenarios are great, and yeah, possible, but we seriously never hold our end of the bargain.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Beating Green Bay seems out of reach. Beating New England at Foxburogh seems out of reach. Making the playoff @ 8-8 seems out of reach. Therefore the playoffs seem out of reach.

 

Yes it's very possible Aaron Rodgers and Lacy get the flu and miss the game which the bills might then win somhow. VERY POSSIBLE....very

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

For those who think the playoffs are out of reach this point, please note the very possible scenario.

1. Bills win last 3 games (GB is at home coming off Monday night, Oakland is terrible and NE should have the conference locked up for week 17)

2. Remaining 11 teams win at home against AFC contenders and win all games against non-contenders and lose on road games vs NFC Contenders.

 

End result

NE - MIA (W), @NYJ (W), BUF (L) - 12 wins, conference champs

Den - @SD (L), @CIN (L), OAK (W) - 11 wins, wins West

Ind - HOU (W), @DAL (L), @TEN (W) - 11 wins, wins South

Pit - @ATL (W), KC (W), CIN (W) - 11 wins, wins North

Bal - JAX (W), @HOU (L), CLE (W) - 10 wins, 5/6 cede

Buf - GB (W), @OAK (W), @NE (W) - 10 wins, 5/6 cede

Cin - @CLE (L), DEN (W), @PIT (L) - 9.5 wins

Cle - CIN (W), @CAR (W), @BAL (L) - 9 wins

KC - OAK (W), @PIT (L), SD (W) - 9 wins

SD - DEN (W), @SF(L), @KC (L) - 9 wins

MIA - @NE (L), MIN (W), NYJ (W) - 9 wins

HOU - @IND (L), BAL (W), JAX (W) - 9 wins

 

Bottom line, this isn't the only scenario, but it is very plausible as many AFC teams are going to cannibalize each other. The Bills just need to win. They beat Green Bay this weekend and they are very alive. They lose, the season is over.

I was told when I was young that in these situations just take care of your own house and things tend to workout. Just win this Sunday for starters!BTW, I would estimate the chances of winning all three games at between 4-8%. So like I said, win first. Some want to give up or are non-believers, good thing The Giants didn't think like some of you! Edited December 9, 2014 by 75Bills

[Dorkington]

lol

[IronyAbounds]

Whatever the OP is drinking, I'll take some!!!! Perhaps it will make me forget this will be the 15th year in a row the Bills haven't made the playoffs. Or that the Bills have no prospect for a decent QB. Or that the OL is in shambles. Or that Fred Jackson may have hit the wall and suddenly the Bills RB situation looks bleak. Or that the head coach and OC are complete nimrods that don't deserve the jobs they hold. That will have to be some really powerful stuff.