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hope i'm wrong, but..


BackInDaDay

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.. we're in bad shape to play the Jets this week.

 

their strengths vs our weakness

  • their D-line is very good, and we're juggling guys on our o-line
  • their coach has a variety of ways to bring pressure, and we're missing our best blitz pickup RB
  • their RBs are very good, and we've just given up our first 100 yd rushing game to who?

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"hope I'm wrong" is the new "hear me out."

 

But as to your premise, IMO it won't be an easy win but it should be a win.

 

1] We have faced equal and better DLs in the Lions, Texans, etc. We didn't do well but they are no more of a threat than the Jets.

2] Losing Fred will hurt in blitz pick-up. Bobbie and Brown are better than CJ in there though. Orton is slow, but smart. We are going to get sacked 5+ times and have to live with it. The plays downfield against their weak secondary in the 35 passes we are not sacked on will be the difference.

3] The Jets have one very good back at getting the most yards he can, and hurting people, and effort. CJY2K is not good anymore. They do not have good backs.

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.. we're in bad shape to play the Jets this week.

 

their strengths vs our weakness

  • their D-line is very good, and we're juggling guys on our o-line
  • their coach has a variety of ways to bring pressure, and we're missing our best blitz pickup RB
  • their RBs are very good, and we've just given up our first 100 yd rushing game to who?

Where is DaDay?

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"hope I'm wrong" is the new "hear me out."

 

But as to your premise, IMO it won't be an easy win but it should be a win.

 

1] We have faced equal and better DLs in the Lions, Texans, etc. We didn't do well but they are no more of a threat than the Jets.

Lions,, maybe.. Texans without Clowney? no

2] Losing Fred will hurt in blitz pick-up. Bobbie and Brown are better than CJ in there though. Orton is slow, but smart. We are going to get sacked 5+ times and have to live with it. The plays downfield against their weak secondary in the 35 passes we are not sacked on will be the difference.

agree here, but Orton's good for a couple picks a game

3] The Jets have one very good back at getting the most yards he can, and hurting people, and effort. CJY2K is not good anymore. They do not have good backs.

i thought the same about Johnson, until i saw his effort against NE - ran very hard

 

Where is DaDay?

right about now she's fixing herself up before making your dinner

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.. we're in bad shape to play the Jets this week.

 

their strengths vs our weakness

  • their D-line is very good, and we're juggling guys on our o-line
  • their coach has a variety of ways to bring pressure, and we're missing our best blitz pickup RB
  • their RBs are very good, and we've just given up our first 100 yd rushing game to who?

 

 

We're talking about the 1-6 Jets. Orton has played almost his entire career in Buffalo under constant pressure with no support in the run game. It's not going to suddenly destroy our gameplan in week 8.

 

We had one bad game against the run. Before that we were #1 overall on run defense and even after that game we're top 5. It seems irrational to worry about this.

 

The Jets have a crappy secondary. If anyone should be worried about any matchup this game, Jets fans should be worried about our receivers vs. their secondary.

 

And let's not forget that we're playing Geno Smith. Our Dline is going to devour him and our secondary should be able to get a few picks.

Edited by TheBillsWillRiseAgain
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"hope I'm wrong" is the new "hear me out."

 

But as to your premise, IMO it won't be an easy win but it should be a win.

 

1] We have faced equal and better DLs in the Lions, Texans, etc. We didn't do well but they are no more of a threat than the Jets.

2] Losing Fred will hurt in blitz pick-up. Bobbie and Brown are better than CJ in there though. Orton is slow, but smart. We are going to get sacked 5+ times and have to live with it. The plays downfield against their weak secondary in the 35 passes we are not sacked on will be the difference.

3] The Jets have one very good back at getting the most yards he can, and hurting people, and effort. CJY2K is not good anymore. They do not have good backs.

 

+1 to this

 

additionally...

 

3] (cont'd) "we've just given up our first 100 yd rushing game" is another way of saying "we have only allowed one 100 yd rusher in seven games" which sounds pretty good to me!

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I honestly think, based on the past few weeks of how CJ and Fred have performed (read: not outstanding, 96 yds; 49yds; 68yds), you're not going to see a huge dropoff from our RB production, and maybe even an uptick.

 

as for their interior d-line versus our oline, i'm very very worried. the Jets are great at smelling blood in the water and blitzing relentlessly. it's one of the reasons they stayed close with the Pats.

 

and as for us giving up 100yds, it's going to happen. 4 turnovers and you keep throwing the d on the field, it's bound to happen. if we protect the ball better on O, we'll have a better chance of keeping their RBs in check.

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Beating the Jets on the road will be a challenge.

Their strengths do match up in their favor to some of our weaknesses but our strengths also match up well to their weaknesses. On a neutral field I think we win this game more often then not, but going to their house gives them the edge. That said, this is another must win game for us.

Edited by Maddog69
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Uh.. that no name RB is a beast.. Currently on my fantasy roster and took over as my #1 RB. McKinnon is going to be excellent the rest of the year.

He's a very good back that the Vikings have eased into the NFL. But he's ready to take over the #1 role now.

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You had me fooled, you rascal, until you mentioned making me dinner. I do my own cooking. Nice try, though!

 

haha.. you too.. :thumbsup:

 

and as for us giving up 100yds, it's going to happen. 4 turnovers and you keep throwing the d on the field, it's bound to happen. if we protect the ball better on O, we'll have a better chance of keeping their RBs in check.

 

great point.. between Orton being hurried and Brown's rep of putting it on the ground.. this would be the game to win the turnover battle

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Lions,, maybe.. Texans without Clowney? no

The way JJ Watt is playing right now, he and anyone, especially the decent to good players on the Texans DL, are as good as Wilkerson and Richardson, who are both very, very good.

 

As far as CJY2K goes, everyone in the NFL runs hard a few plays a game. In the last couple years he has had a couple good games total. I am not concerned about him at all compared to Ivory. He's JAG at this point in his career.

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Never feel good about playing the Jets on the road, but I like our passing game vs their weak secondary. Hackett is going to have to draw up some quick hitting pass plays to neutralize their pass rush early. We will truly see what Hackett is made of this week.

 

That part scares me... I'm not a Hackett should be fired tomorrow guy, but man having him be the difference isn't very comforting.

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.. we're in bad shape to play the Jets this week.

 

their strengths vs our weakness

  • their D-line is very good, and we're juggling guys on our o-line
  • their coach has a variety of ways to bring pressure, and we're missing our best blitz pickup RB
  • their RBs are very good, and we've just given up our first 100 yd rushing game to who?

 

Thread titles like this are really annoying. Just give a hint about the "real " subject, because in that title, the subject is you, and that's not a good subject.

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+1 to this

 

additionally...

 

3] (cont'd) "we've just given up our first 100 yd rushing game" is another way of saying "we have only allowed one 100 yd rusher in seven games" which sounds pretty good to me!

 

.. we're in bad shape to play the Jets this week.

 

their strengths vs our weakness

  • their D-line is very good, and we're juggling guys on our o-line
  • their coach has a variety of ways to bring pressure, and we're missing our best blitz pickup RB
  • their RBs are very good, and we've just given up our first 100 yd rushing game to who?

 

The first two are points, if a bit overblown. The third is ridiculous...before that, the highest rushing total the Bills had allowed to a TEAM was 86.

 

Also, do you not think that the same could be said on the other side of the ball? The Bills are #1 in the league in sacks and the Jets have only allowed one fewer sack. And I'd bet on Kyle Orton to handle it better than Geno "28 interceptions in 23 career games" Smith.

 

Not saying playing the Jets on the road is a breeze...they could very well lose a game they should win. It's just the lack of perspective and the negativity double-standards by a lot of people on TBD.

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I wish it was this easy.

 

The Jets are starving for a Victory coming off a brutal loss to the Patriots.

 

Jets offensive line isn't bad so I'd be surprised if our D-Line is able to get consist pressure with 3 to 4 man rushes(Because lord knows Schwartz doesn't like to blitz).

 

Yes our receivers match up well against their bad secondary, but our offensive line DOES NOT match up well against their defensive line. This is my main concern for the game.

 

Oh and Freddie/Spiller are out for the game, everyone here seems to think we won't miss a beat without them. I don't think so.

 

I think Jets win it, hopefully they prove me wrong!

 

My thoughts as well. Thanks for saving me key strokes. I'd throw in there that special teams may prove to be a big deal. Winning the field position battle. Maybe a long punt / kick-off return. A game / momentum changer.

 

Also (and its probably been said) the difference in the game may end up being Geno making a bad decision while under pressure. I've seen enough of Geno now and he gives a DC a headache. He is very good when he can plant his feet.

 

I honestly dont think Percy will be a factor although we will probably see him on kickoff / punt returns I'm thinking.

 

Given the situation with our injuries and a hungry talented team like the Jets I think its going to take a small miracle (turnovers) to win this one.

 

Huge game. Throw out the stats. Throw out the records. It'll be a dog fight and decided in the final minutes. In what I believe will be a low scoring game.

 

17-16 Jets and I hope to hell I'm wrong.

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:D They do tend to kill us. Of course, before this year, top name backs, middling backs, and no name backs all seemed to kill us.

The RB position is overrated; there's a reason why teams wait to draft them now. Also, the Vikes' line was built to run block. They are 10th in rushing yards this season and 7th in yards per attempt despite having a truly horrible passing attack. Last year they were 8th and 2nd in those categories, and in 2012, they were 2nd and 1st. Sure, AP makes a difference, but Jerrick McKinnon (a third rounder this year and one of the top backs selected in the draft) is actually good, and looked good against the Bills. Their run blocking was the best the Bills have faced all year. Their line played very well in the run game.

 

That said, the Jets have a very good run blocking line too.

Edited by dave mcbride
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Geno is good for a couple picks. The jets def has one pick all year and that was in their shutout loss to the chargers. Granted they have had a brutal schedule with qb's so far but you gotta think they could have had at least a few picks by now. Hackett better be ready to call the game of the year this week.

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The RB position is overrated; there's a reason why teams wait to draft them now. Also, the Vikes' line was built to run block. They are 10th in rushing yards this season and 7th in yards per attempt despite having a truly horrible passing attack. Last year they were 8th and 2nd in those categories, and in 2012, they were 2nd and 1st. Sure, AP makes a difference, but Jerrick McKinnon (a third rounder this year and one of the top backs selected in the draft) is actually good, and looked good against the Bills. Their run blocking was the best the Bills have faced all year. Their line played very well in the run game.

 

That said, the Jets have a very good run blocking line too.

Agree with all of that. But as I said, up until this year, all kinds of backs, good and bad, most every game, racked up yards against our run defense. This year they don't. I expect the Jets to get somewhere around 100 yards, hopefully just under. Ivory is very good. Last week we couldn't tackle for some reason.

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Agree with all of that. But as I said, up until this year, all kinds of backs, good and bad, most every game, racked up yards against our run defense. This year they don't. I expect the Jets to get somewhere around 100 yards, hopefully just under. Ivory is very good. Last week we couldn't tackle for some reason.

I think Kyle Williams is hurt, and that's part of it. It wasn't an issue vs. the Pats because the Pats decided to run a heavy passing attack, which worked perfectly for them. The Lions game almost doesn't count in my book; they were without Bush, Joique Bell, and - most importantly - Calvin Johnson. This game will be a test.

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Who on earth is Jerick McKinnon... oh yea, he is that Vikings RB who had 19 carries for 103 yards against the Bills. Meanwhile with Schwartz only rushing the front four against the Vikes it made a rookie QB look brilliant at times.

 

The Jets RB Chris Ivory is a bulldozer, and should the Jets grow a brain to keep pounding the rock with Ivory. It might just be a very long day for Buffalo. Lets not forget that this NY Jets team gave the Broncos & Patriots all they could handle! Big Mouth Rex is 1-6, and wants to rip someone apart.

 

On a better note Urbik will replace Richardson at LG, on a bad note Pears is still at RG.

 

I hate these games where the Bills are supposed to win because they are playing a bad team on the road. Exactly how well did that turn out last year @ Tampa, @ Pittsburgh, @ NY Jets, and even Atlanta at home. For some reason under Marrone the team seems to "play down" to its competition. As was the case against the Minnesota Vikings. A team they should have destroyed at home, and instead almost lost to.

 

I'm hoping the Bills stop using Sammy as a decoy, and start getting him involved in every aspect of the offense. It should be a win, but who knows with this team.

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Truth is that however good this matchup looks on paper, the Bills never play well in this venue. They consistently lose here and rarely play well.

Add in the fact I'm going and we are cursed! Doomed!

 

I've been to four Jets games in the past 16 years, and the Bills have lost 34-12, 31-13, 30-3, and -- last but not least -- 31-27 (the JP fumble game, which was the worst of them all). Never again.

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Who on earth is Jerick McKinnon... oh yea, he is that Vikings RB who had 19 carries for 103 yards against the Bills. Meanwhile with Schwartz only rushing the front four against the Vikes it made a rookie QB look brilliant at times.

 

First of all, Schwartz blitzed on a third of passing plays. And believe it or not, that's when the rookie was most accurate. This whole "Schwartz never blitzes" and "blitzes lead to better defense" thing is plain stupidity. People need to accept that maybe some of the coaches know what they're doing from time to time.

Edited by No Cease Fires
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Who on earth is Jerick McKinnon... oh yea, he is that Vikings RB who had 19 carries for 103 yards against the Bills. Meanwhile with Schwartz only rushing the front four against the Vikes it made a rookie QB look brilliant at times.

 

Wait ... are you talking about the Vikings team that only scored 16 points even though they had a few extra gift possessions in Bills territory?

 

I get what you're saying, but yards don't win games.

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First of all, Schwartz blitzed on a third of passing plays. And believe it or not, that's when the rookie was most accurate. This whole "Schwartz never blitzes" and "blitzes lead to better defense" thing is plain stupidity. People need to accept that maybe some of the coaches know what they're doing from time to time.

that's what you get when you just use stats and don't use context or watch the game. I just watched every single play of the first half, and counted each play the Bills blitzed.

 

Here were the results

 

2, inc, 6, inc, inc, -6*, 3, 3.

 

So Bridgewater completed 5-8 for 8 yards.

*it's possible they wouldn't call the pass for -6 which was a completion not a sack as a blitz, as it was more of a delayed blitz. If they didn't count that one, he was 4-7 for 14 yards.

 

Neither int was a blitz

All of the passes completed downfield and on TD drive they did not blitz on.

Edited by Kelly the Dog
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