MYTH: Boy... Chan Gailey got so much more out of Spiller! (w/stats

[TheFunPolice]

REALITY: CJ Spiller has had ONE good year as a pro (2012).

REALITY: It took the "genius" Chan Gailey until YEAR #3 to figure out how to use HIS chosen "waterbug" running back.

REALITY: CJ needs just 120 YDS from scrimmage this season to surpass the production of his ENTIRE rookie year!

 

I know... Hackett is awful and if we JUST had the genius Chan Gailey again, Spiller would be AMAZING! I mean, he "knew how to use him!"

 

Let's look at the stats:

 

2010 Year #1 of Chan and Spiller: 440 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 5 fumbles

2011 Year #2 of Chan and Spiller: 830 YDS from scrimmage, 6 TD, 2 fumbles

2012 Year #3 of Chan and Spiller: 1,703 YDS from scrimmage, 8 TD, 3 fumbles

 

2013 Year #1 of Hackett and Spiller: 1,118 YDS from scrimmage, 2 TD, 4 fumbles

2014 Year #2 of Hackett and Spiller: 320 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 1 fumble

 

2012 was a great year for CJ, and 2013 was not bad either (aside from the drop in TDs).

 

 

http://www.pro-footb.../S/SpilC.00.htm

 

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But let's not kid ourselves. As much as people want to incessantly rip on Hackett and sing Gailey's praises, the offensive numbers are not much different overall in terms of PPG, NFL ranking, etc. And Chan "had his QB" for most of his tenure here, whereas Hackett had a rotation of EJ (3 injuries), an UDFA rookie (Tuel) and Thad Lewis at QB.

 

Most damning of all for the "oh, if only we had Chan...." people is that Chan got ONE good year out of his 1st round RB that he HAD to have, and it took him until year #3 to figure out how to use him.

 

Hackett and Marrone have a different offense, with different responsibilities, and yet they still got the 2nd best year out of Spiller that he's ever had (better than 2/3 of Gailey's years). And that was in year #1 for them, in an offense led by a guy who is now on the bench, a guy who is now on the practice squad where he belongs, and a guy who is out of the NFL entirely.

Edited October 8, 2014 by TheFunPolice

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Good post.

 

I think the concern was that 2012 seemed to be the year when CJ and Chan kind of "got it," and then 2013 came around and he regressed. I think in 2012, he was over 6 ypc and 10 yds per rec, and then went way down in 2013.

 

Regardless, I think your point is a fair one, as I am one of the folks on here who sing gailey's praises. Might be overstating the Gailey effect.

[TheFunPolice]

I was actually surprised at what the stats looked like (and I am firmly in the "I'm happy Gailey is gone" camp).

 

Really there wasn't any statistical dropoff from Gailey's offense to Hackett's, and Hackett had to deal with a rotation of 3 awful QBs.

 

Hackett really hasn't done that bad a job, and all of a sudden Orton comes in and drops 300+ yards in his first game with the team. That tells me there are opportunities in this offense for plays to be made.

 

On the subject of Spiller specifically, I just don't think he's that good of a football player. He had one great year, but other than that he's been medicore at best. His first two years everyone ripped on him constantly for the same stuff we rip on him now for.

[SJDK]

CJ is a third down back. Don't take him OUT on third down. Put him IN on third down. Please read this Hackett, sheesh. That is all

Edited October 8, 2014 by SJDK

[sodbuster]

I think part of the problem is the scheme, but it isn't Hacketts fault. Chans offense seemed simpler. He didn't have to make decisions. Just hit the hole and run. When he has to pick a hole, like it seems in Hacketts offense, he hesitates and fails to read his blocks. Its so frustrating to watch. Its the kind of stuff you teach your modified team running backs.

[fridge]

Not sure if you realize this...but your stats do not confirm your point. Chan got more out of CJ. Your own stats prove that.

 

If you're going to straw man me with only using his rookie year, then I don't know what to tell you.

[LeGOATski]

He was hobbled in 2013. So far this year, we've faced some good front sevens.

 

I think he's fine. People are quick to abandon players.

[MDH]

CJ is a third down back. Don't take him OUT on third down. Put him IN on third down. Please read this Hackett, sheesh. That is all

 

If he could block my grandmother who is coming around the end on a blitz I'm sure he'd get more opportunities on 3rd down. But since grandma just notched a sack on a whiffed blitz pick up , I'm happy the Bills continue to use Freddie.

[Doug Flutie Band]

Who the heck are these people that are saying Chan Gailey was good? Those people exist?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

REALITY: CJ Spiller has had ONE good year as a pro (2012).

REALITY: It took the "genius" Chan Gailey until YEAR #3 to figure out how to use HIS chosen "waterbug" running back.

REALITY: CJ needs just 120 YDS from scrimmage this season to surpass the production of his ENTIRE rookie year!

 

I know... Hackett is awful and if we JUST had the genius Chan Gailey again, Spiller would be AMAZING! I mean, he "knew how to use him!"

 

Let's look at the stats:

 

2010 Year #1 of Chan and Spiller: 440 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 5 fumbles

2011 Year #2 of Chan and Spiller: 830 YDS from scrimmage, 6 TD, 2 fumbles

2012 Year #3 of Chan and Spiller: 1,703 YDS from scrimmage, 8 TD, 3 fumbles

 

2013 Year #1 of Hackett and Spiller: 1,118 YDS from scrimmage, 2 TD, 4 fumbles

2014 Year #2 of Hackett and Spiller: 320 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 1 fumble

 

2012 was a great year for CJ, and 2013 was not bad either (aside from the drop in TDs).

 

 

http://www.pro-footb.../S/SpilC.00.htm

 

***************************************************************************************************************************************

 

But let's not kid ourselves. As much as people want to incessantly rip on Hackett and sing Gailey's praises, the offensive numbers are not much different overall in terms of PPG, NFL ranking, etc. And Chan "had his QB" for most of his tenure here, whereas Hackett had a rotation of EJ (3 injuries), an UDFA rookie (Tuel) and Thad Lewis at QB.

 

Most damning of all for the "oh, if only we had Chan...." people is that Chan got ONE good year out of his 1st round RB that he HAD to have, and it took him until year #3 to figure out how to use him.

 

Hackett and Marrone have a different offense, with different responsibilities, and yet they still got the 2nd best year out of Spiller that he's ever had (better than 2/3 of Gailey's years). And that was in year #1 for them, in an offense led by a guy who is now on the bench, a guy who is now on the practice squad where he belongs, and a guy who is out of the NFL entirely.

 

Trade him to the saints, they miss sproles.

[mabden]

CJ is a third down back. Don't take him OUT on third down. Put him IN on third down. Please read this Hackett, sheesh. That is all

 

If the guy can't be counted on to get you 3 yards on a 3rd and 2, then he is not much of a 3rd down back.

[PO'14]

CJ is a third down back. Don't take him OUT on third down. Put him IN on third down. Please read this Hackett, sheesh. That is all

 

Damn...almost caught me! Sarcasm at its best right here folks. ( or at least I think its that??? )

[machine gun kelly]

He's a frustrating back. He makes so many mistakes where he is not patient and waits for the hole to develop, and not a dependable back, then knocks one off for 40 yards. I'm nervous everytime he comes in, vs so relieving to me when Fred is in there. He always seems to pick up the block, catch that hot route as the Qb is under pressure, and has such good balance, he knows how to fall forward and get those last two yards.

 

The problem is father time is getting older. Thank god for Whaley picking up Dixon and Brown.

[bowery4]

Spiller has potential that Chan learned to extract after a while, Hackett hasn't done that. It would be a waste to waste it but you do have a point, that the team is built different now. But in anycase you get your playmakers plays that playmakers can make. Utilizing the talents of the players on the team is something Chan did (sometimes), I still have hope that the team gets this but I do wonder if my hope is displaced. I am not saying Chan was a really good coach (or even OC, his schemes got figured out and he didn't have the talent to get more out of his guys) but I do think Spiller is not used well, just Chan got more out of him, obviously. BTW year one with Chan doesn't count. Most rookies don't do well, even over drafted 1st rounders. Spiller was no exception. Also, you left out return yards I think...which in at least my opinion should count.

There are plays Spiller can make and having at least decent Oline and QB play would verify this,again IMO.

Last point, would you like to see Spiller on NE* 2 times a year? I wouldn't. It really has nothing to do with Chan. But you know there are other coaches that would make CJ play up to his potential.

Edited October 8, 2014 by bowery4

[BuffaloBill]

Thanks to the OP because there is nothing like data to dispel myth...

[billsfan1959]

I am not one of those that wants Gailey back or Hackett gone. For me the jury is still out on Hackett as there have been, to say the least, extenuating circumstances his first 21 games in the NFL. My issue is this idea that CJ and Freddie can be used interchangeably - as if they have the same skill sets. They don't. IMO, CJ is a special talent when used properly. Hopefully, Orton plays consistently well enough to make defenses respect the passing game and allow Hackett to devise some plays for CJ out of spread formations which better suits his skill set. If they want to run CJ up the middle in two tight end formations, then we will continue to see Spiller struggle.

 

And if they want to keep CJ in the backfield for extra protection on passing downs - then it just may eventually get our QB killed.....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I think part of the problem is the scheme, but it isn't Hacketts fault. Chans offense seemed simpler. He didn't have to make decisions. Just hit the hole and run. When he has to pick a hole, like it seems in Hacketts offense, he hesitates and fails to read his blocks. Its so frustrating to watch. Its the kind of stuff you teach your modified team running backs.

 

CJ had to make decisions in Chan's offense. Play calling in E-P based offenses require everyone to read the D and make the same call on what their role is in that variation of the play.

It's why CJ spent much of his rookie year on the pine. It took him a while to get it.

 

Does anyone think CJ has had the same quality of OL/holes the last 2 years that he had in 2013? Guards like Legursky? Pears? Then there's the Corey Mac effect. Chan would put Corey Mac in to block and bam, 6 yds.

[uncle flap]

Defenses still key on CJ and now that they have a competent QB, that attention Spiller receives will open up stuff for other players.

 

Yeah, Chan got better stats with Spiller, but let's not forget that "creative" offense got stymied on third down all the time because they basically had 3 plays: RB screen, RB draw and a 5 yard pop to the TE or slot WR.

 

I realize the defense often didn't do much to help, but all those Spiller stats still only got them 6 wins with Chan. Yes, I think Hackett should be getting more out of Spiller, but as long as they continue to win games, I'm not going to get too bent out of shape about it.

 

EDIT: And before anyone chimes in; I checked and saw that Chan's 3rd down conversion rates were middle of the pack and have been worse so far with Hackett- I'm gonna go ahead and trust my gut that garbage time might've inflated that stat for Chan and that EJ and last year's QB carousel have deflated it for Hackett. Either way, I don't have time to check the splits now, but the main point remains that the Bills seem trending upward offensively regardless of how Spiller is performing.

Edited October 8, 2014 by uncle flap

[Hapless Bills Fan]

REALITY: CJ Spiller has had ONE good year as a pro (2012).

REALITY: It took the "genius" Chan Gailey until YEAR #3 to figure out how to use HIS chosen "waterbug" running back.

REALITY: CJ needs just 120 YDS from scrimmage this season to surpass the production of his ENTIRE rookie year!

Let's look at the stats:

 

2010 Year #1 of Chan and Spiller: 440 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 5 fumbles 74 attempts, 283 rushing yards, 3.8 ypc. Spiller spent a lot of time on the bench

2011 Year #2 of Chan and Spiller: 830 YDS from scrimmage, 6 TD, 2 fumbles 107 attempts, 561 rushing yards, 5.2 ypc Fredex hurt, Spiller saw more action and delivered.

2012 Year #3 of Chan and Spiller: 1,703 YDS from scrimmage, 8 TD, 3 fumbles 207 attempts, 1244 rushing yards, 6 ypc

 

2013 Year #1 of Hackett and Spiller: 1,118 YDS from scrimmage, 2 TD, 4 fumbles 202 attempts, 933 rushing yards, 4.6 ypc

2014 Year #2 of Hackett and Spiller: 320 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 1 fumble to date: 61 attempts, 214 rushing yards, 3.5 ypc

 

2012 was a great year for CJ, and 2013 was not bad either (aside from the drop in TDs).

 

 

http://www.pro-footb.../S/SpilC.00.htm

 

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First up, thanks to the OP for starting one of the more interesting recent threads.

 

I don't want Gailey back, though I question the quality and depth of Hackett's game plan and play design.

But it seems to me you are omitting key stats, which are number of carries, and yards per carry.

 

I added them in red, above.

 

Spiller did not catch on to Chan's offense at all his rookie year, and spent a lot of time on the bench behind a mad-effective Fred Jackson.

After that, he was good for an average >5 ypc. He was actually VERY effective his 2nd year, he simply had fewer chances.

 

Under Hackett, Spiiller's attempts have remained high (thus his yardage high), but his production has fallen way off. He has only about 75% of the YPC in 2013 as 2012, and about 60% this year as 2012. In my opinion, the execution of the OL and especially the G positions have fallen WAY off. Is that on Hackett/Marrone? Well, partly. Maybe mostly IMO. They need to do a better job to design plays they can run with the personnel they have - as well as having some responsibility for acquiring/coaching up suitable personnel.

 

So the larger picture of statistics do not appear to support your claims that 1) it took Chan 3 years to figure out how to use Spiller - on a per carry basis he was clearly very effective in year 2 2) that he is just as effective under Hackett. He is only 60-75% as effective on a per-carry basis. This may reflect OL quality as well as play design, but that still (IMO) reflects poorly on Hackett. He needs to design plays that use what he's got effectively.

 

Statistics are a funny thing. They always tell you something, but must be used with care to ensure you look at the right metrics.

 

Thanks to the OP because there is nothing like data to dispel myth...

 

Um... if it's the right data

 

If he could block my grandmother who is coming around the end on a blitz I'm sure he'd get more opportunities on 3rd down. But since grandma just notched a sack on a whiffed blitz pick up , I'm happy the Bills continue to use Freddie.

 

One thing I'll say for Chan, he demanded that CJ put effort into blocking or butt on the bench. And CJ did. Watch film he actually blocked respectably in 2012. Not like FredEx, who can "Sonnnn" the best of them, but respectably.

Edited October 8, 2014 by Hopeful

[Agent 91]

Not sure if you realize this...but your stats do not confirm your point. Chan got more out of CJ. Your own stats prove that.

 

If you're going to straw man me with only using his rookie year, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

I thought I was the only one. He got better yearly with Gailey. But sharply dropped off with Hackett. Of course it's scheme but the OP makes a point I dont grasp given his data