Captain Hindsight Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 There is a school of thought that past performance is predictive of future results....employers utilize this concept in interviewing, and coaches/fans seem enamored. We think, say, a DL will be awesome because he was awesome on another team (Mario). Or we think he will suck on another team, because he sucked for us (Maybin). Occasionally a change of scheme/coaching effects improvement (Hughes, some QB who have been mentioned in this thread). Occasionally, something is wrong with a guy and eventually he heals up or figures out how to fix a problem and takes off (Warner). Typically, once a player is matured in the league, what you see is what you get. He may shine for a time, then this phenomenon called "regression to the mean" takes hold. I would have loved to be wrong on this point with Fitz. I would love to be wrong on this point with Orton. I don't "care" per se what he did in the past, but I consider it likely to predict his performance in future. This^ People keep pointing to Rich Gannon who btw met a QB guru and figured it out. We have Hackett, who according to popular opinion is "in over his head". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) I can't help but see a lot of similarities with this Bills QB situation with Orton and the Cardinals situation a few years ago with Warner. Both were good veterans brought in to back-up a talented but raw young QB. Both of those QB's got hurt leaving the veteran to take over the team. I'm not saying the same thing will happen (I'd say it's extremely unlikely that it will but, I hope it does) what I'm saying is that this Bills team reminds me of that Cardinals team. Both offenses consisted of dynamic playmakers and good defenses. All Warner needed to do was be smart and manage games to win and he ended up doing much more. All Orton needs to do is be smart and manage the game. Wow. I've seen Kurt Warner. I've seen Kyle Orton. And Kyle Orton is no Kurt Warner. Or to be more long-winded, Kurt Warner had a prior career which included 3 consecutive playoff appearances with the Rams, league records for points per season, a Superbowl win, another Superbowl appearance with a very close loss. Did you ever see Warner play in his "greatest show on turf" days with the Rams? I hated how arrogant Martz was, but I must admit they were something to watch. Then Warner appeared to fade after a broken finger followed by broken hand and was relegated to backup for 3 years. Eventually he figured out throwing mechanics post-injury - he took to wearing a glove on his throwing hand - but his emergence in 2005 with the Cardinals and subsequent playoff success was no surprise, based upon his previously demonstrated abilities with the Rams. Orton? Mmmmm, not so much. Edited October 8, 2014 by Hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Dude you are too much. First you say Orton has outperformed Fitz by a wide margin. Then you admit that QBR has been about equal. Fitz's completion percentage is better. He has also thrown more TD and more yards. What you really mean is "by the metrics Orton's Arm deems important, Orton is better", whether or not those metrics are in fact predictive ot team success. > First you say Orton has outperformed Fitz by a wide margin. Then you admit that QBR has been about equal. There are four statistical indicators I consider meaningful: yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, INT percentage, and QBR. Since 2009, Orton has outperformed Fitz on three of the four; and they are about equal on QBR. Whenever statistical indicators point in different directions, you look for ways in which some of the indicators might be misrepresenting performance. I found no evidence that yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, or INT percentage were misrepresenting the two QBs' respective performances. In the absence of such evidence, I cannot justify throwing out three of the four best indicators at my disposal. > Fitz's completion percentage is better. And Trent Edwards' career completion percentage is better than Jim Kelly's. Completion percentage can reveal a lot about a QB's preference for short, high percentage dump off passes. But just because a guy likes to dump the ball off a lot doesn't mean he's a better quarterback. > He has also thrown more TD and more yards. Orton has thrown for more yards per attempt than Fitz. But Fitz has more yards than Orton, because he's attempted more passes. > "by the metrics Orton's Arm deems important, Orton is better" Yes. But it's not like I'm picking these metrics out of a hat. Considerable thought, research, and experience has gone into deciding which metrics to use and (importantly) which to avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 ?? Not wanting to make this about Fitz, but he's rocking 65% completions, 7.7 YPA, his team is 3-2 and tied for 1st in their division, he's got two WR on track for 1000+ yd seasons - the only thing not to like is the 6 picks, but 3 of them came in one game (Giants). Can't say that's Manning-esque but it begs the question how you define awful? Just wait for the season to drag on.....Fitz s arm wears out and he falls off....thats why he is a great back up...fresh arm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 He's our answer for the next couple years...Bradford, RG3 or cousins could become options if tpegs wants to make a strong move. If we keep winning we end up in the late teens in the 2nd round for our first pick. If we take a guy there its a year or more before he's ready. No thanks to Bradford, RG3, or Cousins, who is a game manager if their ever was one. GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artmalibu Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 considering we dont have a 1st round pick next year I hope we ride the Orton train another year or so. But I dont think thats long term... Unfortunately he is not under contract next year and if he finishes the year well the price could go up and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeoriaAZBillsFan Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Wow. I've seen Kurt Warner. I've seen Kyle Orton. And Kyle Orton is no Kurt Warner. Or to be more long-winded, Kurt Warner had a prior career which included 3 consecutive playoff appearances with the Rams, league records for points per season, a Superbowl win, another Superbowl appearance with a very close loss. Did you ever see Warner play in his "greatest show on turf" days with the Rams? I hated how arrogant Martz was, but I must admit they were something to watch. Then Warner appeared to fade after a broken finger followed by broken hand and was relegated to backup for 3 years. Eventually he figured out throwing mechanics post-injury - he took to wearing a glove on his throwing hand - but his emergence in 2005 with the Cardinals and subsequent playoff success was no surprise, based upon his previously demonstrated abilities with the Rams. Orton? Mmmmm, not so much. I did see Warner play during his days with the Rams. That's not the Warner I'm talking about. He was a much better player in those days. I'm talking about the aging, seemed at the time to be almost done Warner that was brought in to help teach a young QB (Josh McCown and then Matt Leinart). I have to differ in saying that what Warner did here in AZ wasn't a surprise. He wasn't expected to come in and play right away, he took over the team after an injury and he certainly wasn't expected to come in and do what he did during his years here. His expectations certainly were raised after he took over.It's the same with Orton, he was brought in to back up EJM. In a perfect world he would've been only a mentor and wouldn't be playing right now. Did anyone expect him to put up 300+ on the #1 defense in the NFL. I didn't and doubt many others did either. I do think that game creates some unreasonable expectations for what he and our offense are capable of right now. I never said they were the same player, I said they were walking into similar situations and I hope that Orton can do something close to what Warner did. I do believe this is the best all-around offense Orton has been a part of and think he can do something with it. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Orton is a lot like RB Thomas Jones.. He is solid, but teams always think they can do better. this is a good comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 considering we dont have a 1st round pick next year I hope we ride the Orton train another year or so. But I dont think thats long term... Unfortunately he is not under contract next year and if he finishes the year well the price could go up and up. Actually I think he is under contract for next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 The Bears team he played on were also very talented especially on d. Just wait and the answer will be obvious. Contrary to what people want to believe, he can't make all the throws. They end up going the other way. He is what his stats say he is. Can we win with him? Maybe, but eventually his numbers will catch up with him. I am not advocating for anyone, just pointing out that in his case the numbers don't lie. He is average. None of those teams had a Sammy Watkins..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) Do you guys really care about what Orton did in the past? Not me..........good or bad, I really don't care..... - So really what your saying is unless one of us can go into the future, you don't actually care what answer we give to the question in your thread title? Productive! Edited October 8, 2014 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I care about what Orton did in the past because it has made him the man he is today....... Get cut...then starting...then traded..then starting and on and on and on...... Orton has faced a lot of adversity in his life.......which tests the metal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Actually I think he is under contract for next year He is, but it's a voidable year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Orton would only be able to win anything meaningful if he had a great team around him. The team would have to be so good to overcome mid-level QB play to win meaningful games in the playoffs. Hopefully he is good enough to win games and get this team to the playoffs. Next year the team could reassess EJ or draft a QB and develop him behind Orton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 He is, but it's a voidable year. Voidable by whom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) I care about what Orton did in the past because it has made him the man he is today....... Get cut...then starting...then traded..then starting and on and on and on...... Orton has faced a lot of adversity in his life.......which tests the metal I get that, but what else is he gonna do that will make him millions of dollars? How does the fact that he has been cut so often equate to improvement? And I still get the feeling when I listen to him, that it's just a job to him. I haven't heard him talk about things like "I'm excited to make the most of this opportunity" or allude to this being his last shot at proving he can lead a winner, or any of that kind attitude. He acts like a veteran QB, who knows his job, and tries to perform as best he can I don't see a "I've been kicked around, and I'm here to prove something" type of chip on his shoulder. Edited October 8, 2014 by HoF Watkins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artmalibu Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Voidable by whom? Yea I need help with this one.. But, I guess I was all wet thinking it was a 1 year deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Voidable by whom? Orton. Yea I need help with this one.. But, I guess I was all wet thinking it was a 1 year deal. If it's voidable by Orton, then it essentially is since he'd definitely void the 2nd year if he has a good year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) Why draft another guy? We have a guy we just drafted, EJ Manuel. The plan from the beginning was to let him sit and learn behind Kolb. EJ IS developing. There are things he needs to learn that he can only get from a vet. Things like watching a veteran QB let a play develop before throwing the pass. Things like setting your feet when throwing to improve your accuracy. Things like having a presence in the huddle. EJ can be our QB for a long time, let's use our future picks on Offensive linemen and Tight Ends. Unless you're planning on Orton for the next 5 years you better have a better plan than going all in again on EJ. You say he is developing but there isn't much evidence to support that. If he does, great, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Edited October 8, 2014 by Rob's House Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXBILLSFAN Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Warner had a bigger/better arm. If Orton is successful, meaning helps the team to the playoffs, it will be interesting to see how the Bills approach the position in the offseason. Do they see EJ as the next man up or do they need to keep drafting QBs. If they draft, how high will they prioritize the QB position? If they invest heavily in a youngster, what does that say about how they view EJ. Orton is better, and possibly much better than Fitz, JMO. I did say, Fitz 2.0 ;-) If Orton is better than Fitz, what an indictment of Nix/Brandon for signing Fitz to that ridiculous contract --- they could have had Orton back then for a prayer ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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