My issue with trading up

[PromoTheRobot]

I'm in a bit of a twitter debate with Sal of WGR about the risks of trading up, especially to the #1 pick. Sal is not only in favor of such a move, he insists that it's something the Bills must do to make a statement. Yes it's risky, but drafting any player is risky. No risk, no reward, right?

 

But my argument is that you raise the stakes higher when you trade up because you are using not one but two or three or more picks on a single player. If you want to get to the #1 pick from #9 you are invariably giving up two #1's and one or more lower picks.

 

If you draft a player and he busts that's a shame but you are out just one pick. Whiff on a trade up and you burn two, three or more picks on that player.

 

What's more, when you use three or more picks on a player, they can no longer afford to be just pretty good. A player that you spend 2 #1's, a 2 and a 3 on better be an All-Pro. Anything less would be a waste of picks because you can get a pretty good player with just one pick.

 

What are the odds any player will be that good?

 

PTR

[SBUffalo]

Nothing of what you just said isn't a common thought for people talking about moving up. It's an obvious bigger risk... So this doesn't bring anything new to the table.

 

In my opinion, any trade that costs a 2015 first just isn't worth it.

[maddenboy]

That's why you have scouts. That's why you have to trust your front office.

 

In every draft there are a couple, and only a couple, game-changing players. If you trust your homework and think you know who one of them is, GET HIM. Give your coaches enuf good players and trust them to work their magic. The idea that draft picks are risky only underscores the point. What if your 2nd doesnt work out anyway? You could have used him to move up for . . . Khalil Mack, for instance.

 

And dont look back.

Edited May 1, 2014 by maddenboy

[filthymcnasty08]

Preserve 2015 picks - we do not know what we have at the QB position. If everyone in the drat process agrees that a Mack or clowney or Watkins is worth going up for, use 2014 currency if at all possible. You do not want to find yourselves in a Redskins situation.

Edited May 1, 2014 by filthymcnasty08

[Doug Flutie Band]

there really are no trade up scenarios that make any kind of real world sense

 

less than 5% chance of them moving up in the first round

[Buffalo Barbarian]

You only trade up for a a QB or if you need that one guy to make the Superbowl.

 

Trading up for us would be stupid, I like Sal but sometimes he is way off.

[Chilly]

If you think you can get a star, you trade up. It's worth getting one difference maker over a couple of people that are merely OK.

[swnybillsfan]

If you think you can get a star, you trade up. It's worth getting one difference maker over a couple of people that are merely OK.

but is it worth giving up a couple players that are pretty good and one or two who are very good for one that is great?

[Awwufelloff]

Also what if that player you invest all those assets to get ends up getting hurt for the majority of the season or has continuous injury problems? I loved what we did last year with our 1st 3 rounds. EJ/Woods/Kiko/Goodwin. If anything we should be trading back to get more studs instead of just one. This draft is very deep and we are far away from one player to complete this team into a playoff contender. We need all the good players we can get.

Edited May 1, 2014 by Awwufelloff

[Chandler#81]

so, you're sayin' we should have thrown the Miami & Panther games?

[dezertbill]

The Bills do not have any true "studs" on their offense. Obtaining a player such as Watkins would change that. I feel Ebron would to, but that's a different conversation.

 

If the Bills pull the trigger on a move up it's not going to solely include draft picks. There will be a player involved, and Stevie Johnson makes the most sense. His cap number is too high and he won't be the true number one the Bills need.

 

He CAN however help another team that already has a number one. Buffalo giving up a 1st, 2nd, and Johnson to Cleveland for a player like Watkins makes sense. Like another poster said you have to trust your scouts. If you think Watkins is THAT good, and can make that much of a difference, then trading a capped out number 2 receiver and a 2nd round pick is not much to give up.

Edited May 1, 2014 by dezertbill

[maryland-bills-fan]

That's why you have scouts. That's why you have to trust your front office.

 

In every draft there are a couple, and only a couple, game-changing players. If you trust your homework and think you know who one of them is, GET HIM. Give your coaches enuf good players and trust them to work their magic. The idea that draft picks are risky only underscores the point. What if your 2nd doesnt work out anyway? You could have used him to move up for . . . Khalil Mack, for instance.

 

And dont look back.

Ahem. If you haven't been in the playoffs for 15 years, maybe its time to look back and see where you screwed up.

[1B4IDie]

I'm in a bit of a twitter debate with Sal of WGR about the risks of trading up, especially to the #1 pick. Sal is not only in favor of such a move, he insists that it's something the Bills must do to make a statement. Yes it's risky, but drafting any player is risky. No risk, no reward, right?

 

But my argument is that you raise the stakes higher when you trade up because you are using not one but two or three or more picks on a single player. If you want to get to the #1 pick from #9 you are invariably giving up two #1's and one or more lower picks.

 

If you draft a player and he busts that's a shame but you are out just one pick. Whiff on a trade up and you burn two, three or more picks on that player.

 

What's more, when you use three or more picks on a player, they can no longer afford to be just pretty good. A player that you spend 2 #1's, a 2 and a 3 on better be an All-Pro. Anything less would be a waste of picks because you can get a pretty good player with just one pick.

 

What are the odds any player will be that good?

 

PTR

You have to look at the delta in the draft class and the opportunity to draft a player with similar potential later in the draft.

 

Foolish people get caught up with the number of the draft pick. There is no guarantee that #3 draft pick is better than #4 or the #104 draft pick. The Bills only statement that matters is wins. Moving up is a meaningless statement if they do it for a player you can easily find later in the draft.

 

Generally if you spend two 1sts on one player it better be a franchise QB or a once in a generation player.

 

Clowney has been hyped since he was 16 years old as that type of player. I can't tell you if he is or not but a player with that type of potential would be an exception to the 2 1sts for a QB rule.

 

Trading up two 1sts for a RT, TE or LB would be beyond stupid. As much as Robinson, Ebron, and Mack are hyped. There are players that will be pro-bowl players at Rt, TE, and LB that are drafted in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft. You'd basically be spending extra picks on ESPN hype.

Edited May 1, 2014 by Why So Serious?

[All_Pro_Bills]

If you think adding an 'impact' player on either side of the ball is going to put your team over the top to become a contender for the championship then you should definitely considering moving up to take him. Giving up some assets in the current or future draft seems like a reasonable trade off for a championship shot.

 

But I don't see the Bills as being that one guy away. They have fewer holes than in past years but still have several needs. I think somebody said it earlier if you're trying to land a QB then it might make sense because they are so hard to find and acquire. Also, while I don't have any data to back up my view I suspect that you won't find most of the consistent winning franchises trading up too often but more times trading back to get more picks and more chances to find impact guys to fill out the roster and improve several areas in one draft rahter than just adding one guy.

Edited May 1, 2014 by All_Pro_Bills

[1B4IDie]

The Bills do not have any true "studs" on their offense. Obtaining a player such as Watkins would change that. I feel Ebron would to, but that's a different conversation.

 

If the Bills pull the trigger on a move up it's not going to solely include draft picks. There will be a player involved, and Stevie Johnson makes the most sense. His cap number is too high and he won't be the true number one the Bills need.

 

He CAN however help another team that already has a number one. Buffalo giving up a 1st, 2nd, and Johnson to Cleveland for a player like Watkins makes sense. Like another poster said you have to trust your scouts. If you think Watkins is THAT good, and can make that much of a difference, then trading a capped out number 2 receiver and a 2nd round pick is not much to give up.

 

It actually doesn't make sense #9 and #41 is all you need to move to #4.

 

So if you use #9, the 3rd round pick, and SJ13 it then makes sense. Although greater question is if you have Josh Gordon, Greg Little, and Jordan Cameron wtf do you want with SJ13 but don't let logic get in the way of fan fiction.

Edited May 1, 2014 by Why So Serious?

[ALF]

The Bills have too many needs to give up picks. An excellent player will be there at 9 in this deep draft. If the top 3 OT's are gone by 9, trade down get Zach Martin.

[Wayne Cubed]

The Bills do not have any true "studs" on their offense. Obtaining a player such as Watkins would change that. I feel Ebron would to, but that's a different conversation.

 

If the Bills pull the trigger on a move up it's not going to solely include draft picks. There will be a player involved, and Stevie Johnson makes the most sense. His cap number is too high and he won't be the true number one the Bills need.

 

He CAN however help another team that already has a number one. Buffalo giving up a 1st, 2nd, and Johnson to Cleveland for a player like Watkins makes sense. Like another poster said you have to trust your scouts. If you think Watkins is THAT good, and can make that much of a difference, then trading a capped out number 2 receiver and a 2nd round pick is not much to give up.

 

To the bolded, could you please expand on why his cap number is too high? I don't get this mentality, in terms of a WR his cap number is right inline with his production, so why is it too high? And his cap number isn't keeping the Bills from signing anyone or from signing people in the future. If you want to talk cap hits why not look at the biggest, Mario Williams? Or if you want to talk about players not fitting the scheme who have a cap hit, why not look at Manny Lawson?

[Prickly Pete]

They won't trade up to the top pick. If they trade up at all, they won't give up next year's first pick. It would be stupid, and I don't think the current leadership is stupid.

[bladiebla]

Not a big fan of trading up here myself, trading down on the other hand, more tickets to the lottery is a higher success ratio imho. That said boy would I love to have Mack. Also good point with EJ, if he has another injury riddled year we'll be in desperate need of drafting another QB next year and then it better be a hit.

Edited May 1, 2014 by bladiebla

[GunnerBill]

Or if you want to talk about players not fitting the scheme who have a cap hit, why not look at Manny Lawson?

 

I'm not convinced yet that Lawson doesn't fit the system. I expect to see them try and use him as a defensive end. He didn't really catch on there earlier in his NFL career, but he did set the edge really well as an OLB last year and I think they take a look at that. However, if they take a look and don't like what they see then I think he is a strong candidate to be a surprise late cut.