finn Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 I wonder if, collectively, this board might do a better job drafting than the Bills front office, at least in picking first round players. I'm thinking of especially the slam-dunk picks (to this forum) that the Bills brain trust passed over to get cute, picking Whitner instead of Ngata, for instance, Maybin instead of Orakpo, T.J. Graham instead of Russell Wilson. It wasn't just in hindsight that the Wall got it right but in real time, or so I recall from the cries of anguish here. But think also of the times when the consensus here seemed to be trading down (yes, I know, you need partners) when the Bills picked a "wtf?" player instead of trading down for better value: McKelvin, for instance, and Losman. We don't always have consensus, of course, but often we do agree the choice comes down to a handful of players. For example, this year it looks like Ebron, Evans or Matthews, provided one of the top-five players doesn't fall to us. It's certainly NOT Ha-Ha Dix. Anyway, I wanted to get a sense of the board: have we collectively--not individually, either way--done a better job identifying the best picks over the years than the Bills front office? Or does it just seem that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 Yes, it's why we are all being considered for GM jobs around the league. Fans always know more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maddenboy Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 (edited) Yes, we have. I cant even remember the last time the Bills drafted the player that this board wanted in the first round. Dareus maybe??? But nowadays, i really do trust Whaley. I do think that he is at least as smart as this board. Edited April 20, 2014 by maddenboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark3 Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 If we all were the GM then we would have 22 pro bowlers easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 In theory that's true. When you have every opinion under the sun in one place you can cobble together a great draft/FA plan. The question is which opinions are correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 At least with respect to the example you gave, much of the board had it right compared to the Bills. But that isn't saying much. Also, McKelvin is decent now. Maybin and Whitner ... there is no excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finn Posted April 20, 2014 Author Share Posted April 20, 2014 Yes, it's why we are all being considered for GM jobs around the league. Fans always know more. Yes, I expected snark. So easy, so useless. My point is that potential first round picks are examined so thoroughly by so many experts whose informed opinion the average fan has access to that fan consensus has value, especially in a community, like this, where fans are unusually dialed in. Again, I'm talking about first-round picks only. My guess is that if franchises with a poor record drafting in the first round, like the Bills, may not perform as well as boards like this over time. There's a reason that virtually all players picked in the first round are expected to go in the first round, if not in the final order: a consensus has emerged that fans are in sync with. I'm not suggesting the Bills retire its scouts, or that consensus can't be dead wrong. I'm merely pointing out that they could do--and possibly have done--worse that follow the collective advice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 It's a mixed bag. I recall many people clamoring for Ryan Nassib with the #8 overall pick last year. Hell, someone even wanted to trade Mario Williams for John Skelton at one point. Let's leave it up to the professionals. Whaley and his crew seem to have a good handle on things now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 The "wisdom of the wall" diminished greatly when Lori left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 It's a mixed bag. I recall many people clamoring for Ryan Nassib with the #8 overall pick last year. Hell, someone even wanted to trade Mario Williams for John Skelton at one point. Let's leave it up to the professionals. Whaley and his crew seem to have a good handle on things now. If someone paid me handsomely to pick football players then I would be a professional. Obviously not every anonymous board poster is going to be good but lets not pretend it is rocket science or that our "professionals" have done anything that a lot of die-hard fans with laptops couldn't have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 If someone paid me handsomely to pick football players then I would be a professional. Obviously not every anonymous board poster is going to be good but lets not pretend it is rocket science or that our "professionals" have done anything that a lot of die-hard fans with laptops couldn't have done. Oh yeah, how many posters had a 2nd round grade on Kiko Alonso? There's more to it than you claim brah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pondslider Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finn Posted April 20, 2014 Author Share Posted April 20, 2014 Oh yeah, how many posters had a 2nd round grade on Kiko Alonso? There's more to it than you claim brah. I had the same thought, which is why I think the "collective wisdom" idea applies only to the first round. Still, you look at the Bills history of second round picks and you're not encouraged: for every Kiko it seems there are two Torrell Troupes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 I always thought Buddy Nix was a good football guy. He had 9 picks in 2010 and the only one that made a significant impact was #9 overall CJ Spiller. He would have been better off trading away the other 8 picks for a hot cheerleader (which by the way, we could always use.......) Drafting is one of the most maddening and esoteric things not just in sports, but in the entire world. It's almost as if a track record of success and proven physical talent somehow mean nothing. Gut feel and logic start fighting against each other, and the only certainty is that you are gambling. Sometimes you will win, and sometimes you will lose big. It's like hearing someone claim they know which way interest rates are going to go, or what stock is the best one to buy. My 10 year daughter has exactly the same chance as a stock analyst, just as she has the same chance as you to win in roulette. So the odds of this board will always beat the GM's because we have more players. Last year's draft was very impressive with the trade down move to get a free pick and add Kiko Alonzo to this team. We aren't sure about EJ or Woods yet, but we know about Kiko and so does the rest of the NFL. They already get an A in my book because that was SOMETHING they did that wasn't pure gamble. It was adding a high pick to your team, pulling it out of thin air and hitting a home run with the guy you got for nothing. That's more impressive to me than getting lucky on a guy you think will be a good pro, it's SKEWING the odds in your favor. There's a huge difference there, and what i love about the new regime here. In the end it's still luck. tons of luck. Speaking of which, imagine the massive difference in the NFL today if Andrew Luck would have gone pro his junior year like many had anticipated. He goes to carolina, and Cam Newton goes to Denver or to us. Probably to us. If Denver takes him, Peyton Manning probably goes elsewhere and the domino's fall from there. Denver might have taken Dareus and we take future HOF Von Miller or AJ Green (assuming they stay healthy). I love the draft. Still waiting for the year we take all O-line and QB's. Then I get my Bills tattoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 I know it's not a concept that is terribly helpful in a discussion like this, but a draftee's talent isn't always enough to overcome a poor team, poor coaching, or just poor circumstances. Just because Haloti Ngata turned out to be All-Pro with the Ravens, or Russell Wilson lit the world on fire with the Seahawks, doesn't mean they would have been equally awesome on the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 I think in general most of the bad picks where not universally hated at the time -- but I remember literally everyone hating the Maybin pick. Even the biggest Kool-Aid drinkers where asking WTF on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 (edited) I think his response was just realistic and brutally honest. The amount of posts on this board or any board who imply they no better than professionals is amazing. So his response to this thread was appropriate IMO. Yes, I expected snark. So easy, so useless. Two of the examples the OP gave was Whitner and Maybin, both selected in the Marv Levy and Russ Brandon GM era. In both cases, neither of them were traditional GM's in how they selected players etc. I recall ML specifically stating how he was building consensus and draft picks were a product of that. No inside information, pure speculation, but I really don't think RB even really wanted to be the GM and left to others to decide on the draft picks taken. He never claimed to be making those decisions either from what I recall. So if I'm not going to be making the picks myself, whom better to lean on than who does the HC want and unless based on a clear reason to go in another direction, would defer to him. May as well follow the Bill Parcells manta of cooking the meal and buying the groceries, so let Jarron make the choices. I do think RB in his present role as president is well suited for that role and is doing a very good job. While I also agree that Buddy Nix was a good football man, it could be while he was great at scouting players, to make the actual decision on who to pull the trigger on is not the same and maybe in hindsight that was something that Nix was not good at. He can tell you every players strengths and weaknesses, but de-cyphering that into who to select may not be as easy as you'd think, so could be that was Buddy's downfall. I always thought Buddy Nix was a good football guy. He had 9 picks in 2010 and the only one that made a significant impact was #9 overall CJ Spiller. He would have been better off trading away the other 8 picks for a hot cheerleader (which by the way, we could always use.......) Yes agree, even now there have been many threads started and many responses to should we trade up, trade down, or should we select a TE, RT, WR, LB, or QB with the first round pick. So is easy three years from now to find evidence to support the argument that we as fans knew better. In theory that's true. When you have every opinion under the sun in one place you can cobble together a great draft/FA plan. The question is which opinions are correct? Edited April 20, 2014 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyC81 Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 Don't forget the great Erik Flowers. The Quote functionality doesn't work for me anymore. Anyone have any insight? I'm using IE 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 For all of the supposed "great" first round picks this board would recommend, what about the dozens and dozens of players that the board insists are "great value" in rounds 2 and 3, but actually get drafted in rounds 6-7 or are UDFAs? And what about guys like Owen Schmidtt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plunge Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 I think our FO has done a nice job of late. They seem to be adding actual TALENT to the roster, at just about every position. What an interesting idea! The only concern I have with the mentality of this scouting staff is their weighting towards big players at all times. I fear that they will, and have, missed out on some very good players because they aren't tall enough. "Big Wins" is something we keep hearing. I agree, that if you get a chance to take a player who is both big, AND good, you take them! But I hate the fact that we missed out on Russell Wilson, and I suspect they avoided him because of his height. I fear that they are also going to avoid Aaron Murray because of his height. I could be wrong, but I don't think Murray is on their radar and I think that's a mistake. If they avoid him because they don't think he can play, then that's fine. But if they avoid him because he isn't 2 inches taller, then that's concerning. Overall, I really like the way they are drafting, and I like the overall culture that they are building. Just thought I'd get it on the record, one more time, that I REALLY want Aaron Murray here! Go Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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