3 Fallacies about the Draft

[simpleman]

Three fallacies I keep hearing over and over again about the NFL Draft

 

1.) The 2013 Draft is weak in talent.

 

Yes it is generally agreed that the QB position is weak this year with 1^st round talent. And some believe that in general the 1^st Round OL talent availability is average.

But the DL talent level is considered generally strong this year.

How you as a team view a draft’s relative strength is how you view the talent available at the positions you identify a need at.

 

2.) That making trades in draft positions is the exception and is not very common

 

According to the NFL, last year almost 50% of the eligible draft picks were the result of position trades. And that 50% were the trades that were agreed to, there are no figures that I can find on trade offers that were not agreed to.

 

http://www.nfl.com/d...f-all-the-moves

 

Two picks were traded multiple times.

 

The traded picks in the first round alone- 2,3,4,5,6,7,12,14,15,21,25,27,29,31

 

3.) Our 8^th position choice has little trade value, since the talent is so weak this year

 

The saying goes “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder”. If a team has targeted a particular position or a particular player as someone they think will improve their team, if that player they really want is available at Number 8, an intelligent, professional GM will always at least consider the possibility of trading up for them. It does not matter how much or how little talent there is available at positions a team does not feel they have in need for, it only matters if the talent or the player they have a position of need for is available.

What I have a need for is of high relevance to me. I may strategically care about choices another team makes when choosing before me when selecting positions/players I don’t feel a need for. But that is because the domino effect of their choices may affect other team’s choices before me and may ultimately affect my options. Ultimately, I am more concerned with the available choices/players/positions that can fill MY needs.

Edited January 26, 2013 by simpleman

[White Linen]

Three fallacies I keep hearing over and over again about the NFL Draft

 

1.) The 2013 Draft is weak in talent.

 

Yes it is generally agreed that the QB position is weak this year with 1^st round talent.

 

I couldn't disagree more. I think there are several first round talent QB's coming out. And I think this years second tear is far and above last years. Osweiler, Wilson, Moore, Weeden, Cousins, Foles, Tannehill, Keenum don't compare IMO to this years guys.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

I couldn't disagree more. I think there are several first round talent QB's coming out. And I think this years second tear is far and above last years. Osweiler, Wilson, Moore, Weeden, Cousins, Foles, Tannehill, Keenum don't compare IMO to this years guys.

 

The problem is, I don't see a clear distinction between the first and second "tier" QB's in this draft. Is it Geno and then everyone else? With this class I see a bunch of 2nd - 3rd round guys who will be picked way too early because there is always a premium on drafting QB's.

[sodbuster]

The QB talent in this draft isnt worse, it is just different. IMO there arent the all star 1 and 2 picks, but there is way more depth at the position. I follow college ball pretty closely, and this is the first year I have had trouble keeping all the QBs in order.

[boyst]

I couldn't disagree more. I think there are several first round talent QB's coming out. And I think this years second tear is far and above last years. Osweiler, Wilson, Moore, Weeden, Cousins, Foles, Tannehill, Keenum don't compare IMO to this years guys.

I fully agree...and disagree.

 

There is not as much top end talent as last year. RGIII, Luck, even Tannehill. This year there is not as much higher end "sure things." Last year there was Weeden (who had to be reached for to fill a need), Osweiler, Foles, Cousins, and Wilson in the middle of the road pack, some better then others. Of those, Cousins and Wilson were the two thought to be on the 2nd tier, Weeden Foles and Osweiler on tier 3.

 

2013:

 

Geno Smith might be the only tier 1 QB

 

Matt Barkley I struggle saying he is a tier 2 given the history of USC QB's.

 

Tier 2:

Wilson

Nassib

Bray

Glennon

 

Tier 3:

Bray

Nassib

Manuel

Dysert

 

Tier 4:

Jordan Rodgers (Vanderbilt)

Matt Scott

Collin Klein

Brad Sorenson

 

More QB's will last in the league for the 2013 draft then the 2012.

[Malazan]

1. I don't think people in general beyond a few loose screws are saying it's a weak year. Most are referring to the QB situation. Seems like a strawman, but you did indeed, knock it down.

 

2. Also, not something I see people in general saying. I see a lot of people who do think that you can simply make a trade down whenever you want to do so and generally get the price you want.

 

3. Picks in the top ten generally have a lot of talent left and falls back on the previous argument. It adds the element of saying GMs believe it is a weak year which doesn't seem to be the case. A lot of this also comes from pre-rookie scale days where a team could end up giving a high pick a crazy amount of money and have him bust.

[Nanker]

1. The check's in the mail.

2. Of course I'll respect you in the morning.

3. No, I'll never post these pictures of you on the Internet.

 

Oh, sorry. I thought it was about the three biggest lies of all time.

[atlbillsfan1975]

I have said it in another thread. There will be at least one great QBin this class and probably 3-4 other solid-good qb's.

Do i know which one is which, nope. It is Buddy and Whaley's job to figure out who they are. Pick him at 8 or mortgage next years draft and move up. I do not really care what anyone thinks, i mean Kiper and McShay. If they where real experts at the draft they would be working for an NFL team.

Listen to guys who have been there in the war room and know how to really evaluate talent. They know it is not just about combine and numbers. Personality and work ethic, level of competition etc...

Nix got Glenn in the second round because people where scared he was just a guard. He proved in his rookie year he can play LT.

He will only get better and kudos to Buddy and Whaley for realizing his potential. Let's hope they can do the same thing for the QB position in this years draft.

[Maddog69]

The QB talent in this draft isnt worse, it is just different. IMO there arent the all star 1 and 2 picks, but there is way more depth at the position. I follow college ball pretty closely, and this is the first year I have had trouble keeping all the QBs in order.

this seems to be the consensus. There are a bunch of QBs with mid 1st round to mid second round grades but none that stand head and shoulders above the rest.

That being said, it seems that this would almost force the Bills to reach for a guy they like at 8 because his grade is late 1st and he is likely to be gone by our pick in the second. The Bills have to come out of this draft with their top rated QB.

[l< j]

Shouldn't Teo's girlfriend be among the top 3 fallacies of this year's draft? Good points, all 3, despite that.

[swnybillsfan]

this seems to be the consensus. There are a bunch of QBs with mid 1st round to mid second round grades but none that stand head and shoulders above the rest.

That being said, it seems that this would almost force the Bills to reach for a guy they like at 8 because his grade is late 1st and he is likely to be gone by our pick in the second. The Bills have to come out of this draft with their top rated QB.

this seems to be pretty accurate. hopefully the guy they want is there for them at 8. pull the trigger and make the best of it!

[Nitro]

Strong draft class if you need Defensive or Offensive linemen followed by DB and WR. I agree the draft class for QB does not have elite talent but there is quality. Prior to the current CBA most teams would shy away from reaching on a QB due to (among other reasons) money. Now the hit will not be as great to make a reach. IMO a draft without elite skill positions on the top of the board will lend itself to more trades in the premium rounds. As noted before up to 50 percent of selections have been traded but the bulk of that is in the 4th and later rounds.

 

This will be a very fluid draft and a fun one to watch. Glennon is flying up the boards with his Senior Bowl practice this week and tomorrows game will have an impact on the draft. Weighing what to do at the 8th position will be predicated on what the first 7 teams do starting with KC. Jacksonville and Arizona need QB and the Jets at 9th can trade up past the Bills to nab a coveted QB. If the top 3 QBs are taken...I see the Bills selecting a LB or OL. Trading back will be the the wisest option in this scenario. I look forward to April all the pre draft debate.

[bobobonators]

The problem is, I don't see a clear distinction between the first and second "tier" QB's in this draft. Is it Geno and then everyone else? With this class I see a bunch of 2nd - 3rd round guys who will be picked way too early because there is always a premium on drafting QB's.

 

Exactly. Is there really that big of a difference between Nassib, Wilson, Glennon, and co.? I don't see it.

[DrDawkinstein]

I have said it in another thread. There will be at least one great QBin this class and probably 3-4 other solid-good qb's.

Do i know which one is which, nope. It is Buddy and Whaley's job to figure out who they are. Pick him at 8 or mortgage next years draft and move up. I do not really care what anyone thinks, i mean Kiper and McShay. If they where real experts at the draft they would be working for an NFL team.

Exactly. Is there really that big of a difference between Nassib, Wilson, Glennon, and co.? I don't see it.

 

This is all exactly how I feel about the QB situation. Especially the bold. Top priority should be identifying their guy, whoever that is, and then doing everything to ensure we get him.

 

Even though I favor Geno Smith, I'll be fine with whoever they end up with, as long as they take a QB early.

Edited January 26, 2013 by DrDareustein

[boyst]

 

 

 

This is all exactly how I feel about the QB situation. Especially the bold. Top priority should be identifying their guy, whoever that is, and then doing everything to ensure we get him.

 

Even though I favor Geno Smith, I'll be fine with whoever they end up with, as long as they take a QB early.

so leverage every other position of need, higher performers in shallow positions to select a guy who only slightly better then the rest of the field by many viewpoints in hopes that he will be of more value then other possibly selectees?

 

I have said it before, I am comfortable doing a 3rd pick on a QB because I see LB as such a need. I could be happy drafting WLB, SLB/MLB, QB in that order. I do not think a QB this year benefits this team more then another position of need. In fact, if not fr fear of Te'o I would say we benefit by not going all in on a QB early. 2014 offers a better chance of rounding out our roster with a qb.

[Homer]

if there were a 1 and 2 star QB in this draft we wouldnt get them at 8 anyway.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

if there were a 1 and 2 star QB in this draft we wouldnt get them at 8 anyway.

 

The problem is that no one can say with any certainty who the "1 and 2 star QBs" are.

 

The first QBs taken might not necessarily be the best.

 

It might turn out that the 3rd, 4th, or 5th QB taken ends up being the best to come from this draft.

 

In that sense, the Bills are still sitting in pretty good shape at #8.

 

Very good OP btw.

[3rdand12]

Good post simpleman.

Regardless of talent certain teams Need the best option at QB in the draft which could push guys into the first round.

It's all relative i suppose as to who wants who the most. When the clock starts ticking.

[simpleman]

I agree with what most posters say. It is still too early to tell, but I do feel that as this point before the combine Smith is the only QB worth taking a gamble on at #8. As most mentioned, there are a lot of decent gambles at QB in the draft, but they are too risky to waste a valuable #8 pick on. Either use the #8 on Smith if he falls to us, use it on the best lb/wr/dl rated by our scouts on the board at that time, or try to trade down, get another 2nd round pick and their 1st. Then pick the best QB available in the late first. I think the 2nd tier talent is exceptional this draft, and wisely using two 2nd round picks and a 3rd could change the whole complexion of the team positively if we got lucky with a QB selected there. I would not mortgage the future on a QB this year in desperation. Maybe next year there might emerge a QB worth that gamble, I don't see that this year. I'd settle for a moderate gamble in the late first , or in the 2nd until then.

Edited January 26, 2013 by simpleman

[DrDawkinstein]

so leverage every other position of need, higher performers in shallow positions to select a guy who only slightly better then the rest of the field by many viewpoints in hopes that he will be of more value then other possibly selectees?

 

I have said it before, I am comfortable doing a 3rd pick on a QB because I see LB as such a need. I could be happy drafting WLB, SLB/MLB, QB in that order. I do not think a QB this year benefits this team more then another position of need. In fact, if not fr fear of Te'o I would say we benefit by not going all in on a QB early. 2014 offers a better chance of rounding out our roster with a qb.

 

It depends on how the FO rates the players. We're all just guessing here on how the QBs rate out. Sure we watch college ball, and have some idea, but that will all change when it's actually draft time.

 

My point was IF the FO identifies a player as their franchise QB, then do whatever it takes to get him. If they think Smith (for example) is really a Tier 1 guy, then trade up and get him. If they think Glennon (or whoever) is a 1st/2nd round guy, pick them at #8. Dont kitty-foot around and hope you land a guy. If you like him, make it happen.

 

I also dont have a problem with picking a QB in the 2nd, as long as the risk of waiting pays off and they get "their guy". Like if, for example, they like Nassib as a 3rd rounder, take him in the 2nd. Of course, we dont know who that specifically is, but I'm just hoping the Bills are serious about getting a QB early this draft.

 

I think we're going to see an early run on QBs regardless of where people "rank their talent". If Im correct, waiting until the 3rd will land us a 4th Tier QB in an already marginal class. Taking a 3rd round QB just means we're going to waste a year, and will be picking another QB with our Top 5 pick in 2014. Which Im not opposed to either. I think smart teams will start taking QBs early and often, like 1 in the first 4 rounds every year, then every other year. Take a QB this year, and next year.

 

As a side note, my brain completely dismisses the statement "Next year's class is better" as I have read that phrase every year over the last 4-5 years. There's no validity in that prediction. No telling what will happen with careers and injuries. Take a guy early this year and next year. Start injecting this team with young, hungry QB talent.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

As a side note, my brain completely dismisses the statement "Next year's class is better" as I have read that phrase every year over the last 4-5 years. There's no validity in that prediction. No telling what will happen with careers and injuries. Take a guy early this year and next year. Start injecting this team with young, hungry QB talent.

 

I strongly agree with the bolded statement partly for the reason you state: that the predictability of next year's market is not as easy as most people seem to think it is.

 

But also, there's a tug-of-war in sports between making decisions for the long term and making them for the short term. There are only a few teams who have the luxury of being able to consistently make long term decisions. This is sad and ironic because long term decisions are usually the best.

 

However owners and fan bases are impatient and the vast majority of decision makers in sports are under immense pressure to win now (the future be damned).

 

I can understand the concept that we should wait till next year to draft our quarterback but I don't want to employ that concept.

[T master]

I couldn't disagree more. I think there are several first round talent QB's coming out. And I think this years second tear is far and above last years. Osweiler, Wilson, Moore, Weeden, Cousins, Foles, Tannehill, Keenum don't compare IMO to this years guys.

 

WOW there are only maybe 3 QB's this year that can compare to last years list & not even close to the 2 QB's taken at the opening of the draft which you forgot to mention.

 

Last year Luck, RG3, Wilson, Cousins, Tannehill, & possibly Weedon exceed just about any of the guys coming out this year. 3 QB's & maybe 4 if you count Barkley (which given USC QB's of the recent past i wouldn't take a chance on him with a gun pointed to my head) might be worthy of the first round. If you take out the desperation factor of teams like the Bills, Cards, KC, & others some of these guys wouldn't get as much as a sniff until the second round at best.

 

If a guy like Wilson given what he did in college dropped to the 3rd round last year, just on stats & skill set this years guys would drop even farther. The only one this year that can match or beat wilson may be Landry Jones career.

 

Nassib is a decent QB but 2nd round by all counts. Not that these guys can't be good NFL QB's but if your looking for the next Manning, Brady, Luck, it ain't happening this year !!

 

Now next year is a different story !!!

Edited January 26, 2013 by T master

[boyst]

Looking at the FA QB's this year proves that teams needing a QB must go with the draft. By the 2014 draft I do not see as many question marks at QB. The Browns will probably top the list of being at the bottom and needing a QB. We may be 2nd, and that is just our luck. Teams have filled their needs at QB. The Jets will being in a FA instead of risking it on a rookie, which will be funny given the cap status.

[maddenboy]

1. The check's in the mail. "Teen"

2. Of course I'll respect you in the morning.

3. No, I'll never post these pictures of you on the Internet.

 

Oh, sorry. I thought it was about the three biggest lies of all time.

 

FYP

[3rdand12]

I strongly agree with the bolded statement partly for the reason you state: that the predictability of next year's market is not as easy as most people seem to think it is.

 

But also, there's a tug-of-war in sports between making decisions for the long term and making them for the short term. There are only a few teams who have the luxury of being able to consistently make long term decisions. This is sad and ironic because long term decisions are usually the best.

 

However owners and {because of their} fan bases are impatient and the vast majority of decision makers in sports are under immense pressure to win now (the future be damned).

 

I can understand the concept that we should wait till next year to draft our quarterback but I don't want to employ that concept.

draft one each year until we find one then?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

draft one each year until we find one then?

 

Paul Brown used to believe that.

 

Of course that was when the NFL draft was twice as many rounds as it is today.

 

That said, if I was running a team, I'd never let the pantry go bare.

 

In other words, if value met opportunity, I'd buy now and figure out the depth chart later; like Shanny did with RGIII and Cousins.

Edited January 26, 2013 by San Jose Bills Fan

[3rdand12]

Paul Brown used to believe that.

 

Of course that was when the NFL draft was twice as many rounds as it is today.

 

That said, if I was running a team, I'd never let the pantry go bare.

 

In other words, if value met opportunity, I'd buy now and figure out the depth chart later; like Shanny did with RGIII and Cousins.

So let me ask this ? We dont have the franchise QB ( i now understand the true meaning of the words ) so we draft one or two this year in hope.

Being the Bills situation. One each year in the early rounds , till we find it ?

 

On another hand, do you think Shanny drafts another one, a project maybe, again next year even though he is flush with the bastards ?

And of course i am being conceptual and not being team specific.

 

The future of the game is desperate for quarter backs it seems.

The ones that are NFL ready. And thats the way the college game is going.

Luck and RG3 were an anomaly of goodness.

 

 

I am thinking draft early. Go for it this time.

we failed being cute.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

So let me ask this ? We dont have the franchise QB ( i now understand the true meaning of the words ) so we draft one or two this year in hope.

Being the Bills situation. One each year in the early rounds , till we find it ?

 

On another hand, do you think Shanny drafts another one, a project maybe, again next year even though he is flush with the bastards ?

And of course i am being conceptual and not being team specific.

 

The future of the game is desperate for quarter backs it seems.

The ones that are NFL ready. And thats the way the college game is going.

Luck and RG3 were an anomaly of goodness.

 

 

I am thinking draft early. Go for it this time.

we failed being cute.

 

If I had two who I knew could play, I probably wouldn't draft a third one.

 

There's just too few draft picks and too many positions on a football team. It would be a bit of an excessive luxury.

 

BUT, even then I might make an exception if the value were too good to pass. As you know there have been some instances in recent history where drafted QBs have retained some trade value for the team which drafted them. And as you point out, QBs have never been more valued than today meaning that there is somewhat of an argument to stockpile them.

 

I don't know what Shanny will do this year, I sense he'll keep Cousins for the duration of his rookie contract so that he has a cheap and capable backup for the next 4 years. I would look for Shanny to look at QBs in 2014 and 2015 as an eventual replacement for Cousins.

 

As for the Bills, yes. Keep trying till you KNOW you have one. As others have pointed out, the rookie wage scale allows teams to invest in more than one guy and jettison a high draft pick if necessary.

 

If I was a GM, my team would probably suck but it would have a lot of QBs and pass rushers on it.

[ny33]

Three fallacies I keep hearing over and over again about the NFL Draft

 

1.) The 2013 Draft is weak in talent.

 

Yes it is generally agreed that the QB position is weak this year with 1^st round talent. And some believe that in general the 1^st Round OL talent availability is average.

But the DL talent level is considered generally strong this year.

How you as a team view a draft’s relative strength is how you view the talent available at the positions you identify a need at.

 

2.) That making trades in draft positions is the exception and is not very common

 

According to the NFL, last year almost 50% of the eligible draft picks were the result of position trades. And that 50% were the trades that were agreed to, there are no figures that I can find on trade offers that were not agreed to.

 

http://www.nfl.com/d...f-all-the-moves

 

Two picks were traded multiple times.

 

The traded picks in the first round alone- 2,3,4,5,6,7,12,14,15,21,25,27,29,31

 

3.) Our 8^th position choice has little trade value, since the talent is so weak this year

 

The saying goes “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder”. If a team has targeted a particular position or a particular player as someone they think will improve their team, if that player they really want is available at Number 8, an intelligent, professional GM will always at least consider the possibility of trading up for them. It does not matter how much or how little talent there is available at positions a team does not feel they have in need for, it only matters if the talent or the player they have a position of need for is available.

What I have a need for is of high relevance to me. I may strategically care about choices another team makes when choosing before me when selecting positions/players I don’t feel a need for. But that is because the domino effect of their choices may affect other team’s choices before me and may ultimately affect my options. Ultimately, I am more concerned with the available choices/players/positions that can fill MY needs.

 

There is talent, elite and otherwise, in this draft. That being said, the last two years have been among the most successful draft classes in history across the board. I wouldn't say that this draft class is historically weak- like the infamous 2000 NBA Draft- but likely average in terms of the displacement of quality starters and the influx of elite talent.

[3rdand12]

If I had two who I knew could play, I probably wouldn't draft a third one.

 

There's just too few draft picks and too many positions on a football team. It would be a bit of an excessive luxury.

 

BUT, even then I might make an exception if the value were too good to pass. As you know there have been some instances in recent history where drafted QBs have retained some trade value for the team which drafted them. And as you point out, QBs have never been more valued than today meaning that there is somewhat of an argument to stockpile them.

 

I don't know what Shanny will do this year, I sense he'll keep Cousins for the duration of his rookie contract so that he has a cheap and capable backup for the next 4 years. I would look for Shanny to look at QBs in 2014 and 2015 as an eventual replacement for Cousins.

 

As for the Bills, yes. Keep trying till you KNOW you have one. As others have pointed out, the rookie wage scale allows teams to invest in more than one guy and jettison a high draft pick if necessary.

 

If I was a GM, my team would probably suck but it would have a lot of QBs and pass rushers on it.

Thanks , you answered me very well.

 

There are going to be haters if we take one at #8 but we almost have to this year.

Ideally we grab defense first ( i love me some defense ) but our hand could be forced and i think it would be much worse if we watch someone take our guy or guys.

 

In regard to the fallacy Simpleman, i expect Nix and Whaley to be wheeling and dealing in the first and second rounds.

Even though the Franchise QB's dont stand out yet , this draft will be a nail biter for me