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Mike Mayock's Mock Draft


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Man, hate those weaknesses:

 

"The major knock on Kuechly is that he had a lot of "inflated" tackle production in college: i.e., most of his tackles came five-to-eight yards downfield. He didn't get up into the line of scrimmage to make powerful, impactful plays much, and won't be relied upon as a pass rusher at the next level, where he'll be strictly a tackling, sideline-to-sideline backer."

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Didn't we already have a guy like that who now plays for the Jaguars?

 

Man, hate those weaknesses:

 

"The major knock on Kuechly is that he had a lot of "inflated" tackle production in college: i.e., most of his tackles came five-to-eight yards downfield. He didn't get up into the line of scrimmage to make powerful, impactful plays much, and won't be relied upon as a pass rusher at the next level, where he'll be strictly a tackling, sideline-to-sideline backer."

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Didn't we already have a guy like that who now plays for the Jaguars?

 

That's obviously the worry.

 

My impression is that Keek is more mobile and faster than Poz. He seems like a "high floor" kind of a guy. Someone will end up with a solid to good LB who might be very good. There are worse people to draft.

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Man, hate those weaknesses:

 

"The major knock on Kuechly is that he had a lot of "inflated" tackle production in college: i.e., most of his tackles came five-to-eight yards downfield. He didn't get up into the line of scrimmage to make powerful, impactful plays much, and won't be relied upon as a pass rusher at the next level, where he'll be strictly a tackling, sideline-to-sideline backer."

Mayock has been raving about Keuchley for weeks, calling him one of the ten best players in the draft.

I don't think that the fact that he played on a bad defense should count against a guy who had 6700 tackles the last two years.

Edited by Wagon Circler
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Didn't we already have a guy like that who now plays for the Jaguars?

 

Oh I think Kuechly is a MUCH better all around player than Poz coming out...Definitely more instinctive, better at angles, and a million times better cover LB...

 

That being said, I'm not sure that's saying much...We'll see... B-)

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Man, hate those weaknesses:

 

"The major knock on Kuechly is that he had a lot of "inflated" tackle production in college: i.e., most of his tackles came five-to-eight yards downfield. He didn't get up into the line of scrimmage to make powerful, impactful plays much, and won't be relied upon as a pass rusher at the next level, where he'll be strictly a tackling, sideline-to-sideline backer."

Please note: this is NOT Mayock's analysis. This is an unsigned NFL Network analysis. Better to wait until Mayock gives his in-depth analysis which airs tonight on the NFL Network at 8 Eastern/5 Pacific.

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Keuchly has big stats, but he's not a true impact guy like Patrick Willis was. I think Floyd is an impact player. Keuchly, he might be a better Poz that can cover.

 

Willis could be considered the best draft pick ever:

 

Grantland Article

 

Article is a good read.. I recommend it. But anyways, you can't really hold every middle linebacker to Willis' standards. Its unlikely that anyone lives up to that kind of potential. However, I do believe Kuechly will be a very good player and will eventually be top 5 at his position.

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Mayock has been raving about Keuchley for weeks, calling him one of the ten best players in the draft.

I don't think that the fact that he played on a bad defense should count against a guy who had 6700 tackles the last two years.

Being one of the tallest munchkins doesn't make you an NBA prospect. Playing on a bad defense and padding your stats doesn't guarantee sucess at the next level, IMO...

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What clips I've seen of Keuckley, I came away unimpressed

 

I kept waiting for that big hit or that impactful play. It never happened.

 

This is troublesome since it was a HIGHLIGHT film.

 

We can do better at 10.

 

If things fall this way then trade down with Dallas for #14 and there 3rd rounder. Dallas is known to be in love with Barron. Kuechly may still be there or possibly Cordy Glenn.

I'm not going to like him any better at 14

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Keuchly = Poz 2.0

 

PTR

IIRC, the Bills liked Poz and tried to keep him. He chose to leave and BTW was paid handsomely by another NFL team that thought he was good. It would not be at all surprising if they also like Keuchly if he does indeed compare favorably to Poz.

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Keuchly to me is a half step better than POZ and a step and a half worse than Patrick Willis- with all those tackles It'd be nice to see more tackles for a loss and a couple forced fumbles (zero), he did have a couple ints and is supposedly a good pass defender (I didn't see that too much from what I watched, but won't argue the point)so overall not my favorite pick at ten but I'll take the pick as a glimps of how the Bills really feel about Kevin Shepard.

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A little confused.....Overview says "Twelve tackles for loss is a testament to his overall ability and instincts to get in the backfield.", but has a weakness of "The major knock on Kuechly is that he had a lot of "inflated" tackle production in college: i.e., most of his tackles came five-to-eight yards downfield." Was this analysis written by two different people? :unsure:

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A little confused.....Overview says "Twelve tackles for loss is a testament to his overall ability and instincts to get in the backfield.", but has a weakness of "The major knock on Kuechly is that he had a lot of "inflated" tackle production in college: i.e., most of his tackles came five-to-eight yards downfield." Was this analysis written by two different people? :unsure:

 

Don't get too confused...Mayock went to BC, and absolutely LOVES Kuechly...I think he was just trying to play a little devils advocate seeing as though he's usually praising the kid ad nauseam...And maybe somebody was giving him a hard time about it? B-)

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What clips I've seen of Keuckley, I came away unimpressed

 

I kept waiting for that big hit or that impactful play. It never happened.

 

This is troublesome since it was a HIGHLIGHT film.

 

We can do better at 10.

 

 

I'm not going to like him any better at 14

 

 

Thank you!!! This is exactly what i've been saying...Not impressed by what I see. A #10 worthy prospect should jump out at you when watching the team and even moreso when watching the highlights!

 

Bill Parsells said it best, "Believe what you see, not what you hear."

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A non-pass rushing LB who will only play zone is a WASTE of a pick @10. It doesn't matter if he can play all 3 positions, he will not start over Barnett and a Rookie will NOT be calling the Defense as an MLB.

 

Stop calling him Urlacher, because he isn't. He isn't an impact player. He would be an upgrade to Morrison and is a good player, but he is not playing an impact position on our D. Those positions are DL and DB. He will not be playing man to blanket Gronk, he is playing Zone and tackling an RB, we can find a good player later in the draft who will have the same impact for us.

 

Again lifted from the Kuechly thread...

 

"This from the mind of the great Gil Brandt:

 

Amazing the bust factor at linebacker in the last 10 years. Brandt tipped me onto this, and he's absolutely right: Look at the top 10 picks in the draft from 2001 to 2010. Six have been linebackers (if you count Terrell Suggs as a defensive end). The six are A.J. Hawk, Ernie Sims, Keith Rivers, Jerod Mayo, Aaron Curry and Rolando McClain. One of the six has made a Pro Bowl -- Mayo -- and he's made just one. Rivers was traded to the Giants for a pittance of a fifth-round pick on Friday. Curry was dealt from Seattle to the Raiders for a seventh-rounder last year. The Eagles gave up a fifth-round pick for Sims in 2010; he's an unsigned free agent now. Hawk and McClain have been pedestrian at best in Green Bay and Oakland, respectively.

 

One Pro Bowl linebacker picked in a decade in the top 10 of the draft. Contrast that to defensive linemen: Twenty-six were picked in the top 10 of the draft from 2001 to 2010 -- obviously counting Suggs as a defensive end -- and those 26 have made 29 Pro Bowls."

 

The facts don't lie....

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Thank you!!! This is exactly what i've been saying...Not impressed by what I see. A #10 worthy prospect should jump out at you when watching the team and even moreso when watching the highlights!

 

Bill Parsells said it best, "Believe what you see, not what you hear."

I've heard Paul Belichick say the same thing.

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I'll go against the grain and say I like what I see in Kuechly. No, he's not Patrick Willis or Urlacher, but not many guys are. Newsflash, if the Bills draft Floyde he won't be Calvin Johnson and if they draft Gilmore he won't be Revis.

 

What Kuechly is is a LB who has been a consistant force in the middle of a D since his freshman year of college. He's led the nation in tackles for 2 years which means he's always around the ball. His combine numbers were impressive, he scored in the top 6 in every single category which shows he's athletic and has the strength to shed blockers. The tape shows this as well. Give him two guys in front of him to clear the way (Dareus and K. Williams) and his tackles won't be 5 yards down field, they'll be at the LoS. Add to it he's a monster in coverage and would be an every down player and you have the makings of a very good MLB.

 

This D is missing just two pieces in the starting lineup - a quality CB and another LB. I'll take either with the pick. I'd prefer Gilmore but I don't think he'll be there at 10.

 

The only other option I see with the 10th pick is Floyd and I'm not comfortable with his off field problems. If he's got them fixed I think he'll be a force but if he doesn't it's a waste of a top 10 pick.

 

Of all the guys likely to be available at 10 I think Kuechly is the safest pick other than Barron (and I don't want a S with that pick.)

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Mayock has correctly guessed every Bills 1st round pick since Whitner.

I would like to see if this claim can be verified.

I have seen information that leads me to believe he predicted neither McKelvin nor Lynch.

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Put the guy behind our monster DL and let him do his thing. He's great in coverage, which is what we need out of our Lbs now. He's a sure tackler with great instincts and good athletiscm. He's a much better athlete then poz.

Edited by NewEra
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Berry is a FS right? Barron is a Strong... B-)

Still, that a lot of draft capital in the deep backfield.

 

I like Barron a lot and don't have a lot of hangups about taking a guy based on talent vs. postion. But even I wouldn't feel comfortable going saftey-safety with two premium picks as soon as KC's contemplating, if they're indeed interested in Barron...

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Starting to think its Barron/Gilmore. Sounds more and more like Kuechly is much better as MLB (mic) than he is on the outside. While Buddy has said he can play all 3 positions, others have said that he wouldn't be anywhere near as good as a strong side linebacker. Interesting situation.

 

As for the DBs. On one hand, Barron is probably the better player, so if the Bills are drafting by the BPA logic, he gets the nod. On the other hand, Bills are very high Searcy. And in the same way that they're high on Sheppard which discounts their interests in Kuechly, I think their faith in Searcy could mean Gilmore is the pick. I know Byrd is a FA next season, but he's a FA the Bills can and likely will try and keep. McKelvin, McGee and Florence on the other hand will all likely be out the door.

 

Final opinion? If it comes down to Gilmore/Barron, I think Barron is the guy bc Buddy is going to want the BPA.

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I've noticed a lot of random criticism over Kuechly.

All I can assume is that these statements are being made by people that haven't actually watched Kuechly in game action (not highlights).

 

Watch any Boston College game.

 

If the opposing offense runs 100 plays, you will see Kuechly "in on the play" on at least 95 of those plays. By that, I mean he either makes the tackle himself, assists on the tackle, or he's within a couple yards of being the first guy there. It doesn't matter where he is on the field.

His instincts and his relentless play are absolutely amazing.

 

Also,

His lack of sack numbers do not indicate an inability to do so.

I've watched several games of his and NOT ONCE did the team ask him to blitz. He was asked to read/react to running plays and to drop into coverage. He did both of those things very-very well.

 

The only legitimate concern about Kuechly is that you don't see him shedding blocks very often. But consider that we now have one of the league's best defensive lines. They will be occupying multiple blockers on every play. Imagine having a linebacker with his field range and ability to recognize where the play is going.

Because of his speed and instincts, Kuechly would be a TREMENDOUS asset against the running game.

 

As a three-down guy, his coverage abilities would also help us against guys like Rob Gronkowski. And unlike drafting a certain safety, he would wouldn't be a liability in the running game.

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1335385030[/url]' post='2445939']

A non-pass rushing LB who will only play zone is a WASTE of a pick @10. It doesn't matter if he can play all 3 positions, he will not start over Barnett and a Rookie will NOT be calling the Defense as an MLB.

 

Stop calling him Urlacher, because he isn't. He isn't an impact player. He would be an upgrade to Morrison and is a good player, but he is not playing an impact position on our D. Those positions are DL and DB. He will not be playing man to blanket Gronk, he is playing Zone and tackling an RB, we can find a good player later in the draft who will have the same impact for us.

 

Again lifted from the Kuechly thread...

 

"This from the mind of the great Gil Brandt:

 

Amazing the bust factor at linebacker in the last 10 years. Brandt tipped me onto this, and he's absolutely right: Look at the top 10 picks in the draft from 2001 to 2010. Six have been linebackers (if you count Terrell Suggs as a defensive end). The six are A.J. Hawk, Ernie Sims, Keith Rivers, Jerod Mayo, Aaron Curry and Rolando McClain. One of the six has made a Pro Bowl -- Mayo -- and he's made just one. Rivers was traded to the Giants for a pittance of a fifth-round pick on Friday. Curry was dealt from Seattle to the Raiders for a seventh-rounder last year. The Eagles gave up a fifth-round pick for Sims in 2010; he's an unsigned free agent now. Hawk and McClain have been pedestrian at best in Green Bay and Oakland, respectively.

 

One Pro Bowl linebacker picked in a decade in the top 10 of the draft. Contrast that to defensive linemen: Twenty-six were picked in the top 10 of the draft from 2001 to 2010 -- obviously counting Suggs as a defensive end -- and those 26 have made 29 Pro Bowls."

 

The facts don't lie....

 

You're correct. He'd be starting over Morrison and alongside Barnett and sheppard and would be playing alongside Barnett and Scott in the nickel. Sheppard is not very good in coverage. Kuechly is. He'd be starting and playing 3 downs. What more do you want from a 10th pick. Just because other 1st rd Lbs haven't panned out, doesn't mean kuechly won't. He'd be starting on our team for a minimum of 5 years. He's a very safe pick in a spot we can't afford to swing and miss

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http://www.nfl.com/draft/2012/mock-drafts/mike-mayock/150251

Mayock has correctly guessed every Bills 1st round pick since Whitner.

 

My impression is that the Bills don't think any of the "available" OT's is worthy of the 10th pick. I also believe that they think they can get a very good WR in round 2 or later. I don't think they will draft any of the hybrid DE/LB's. I also believe they don't think they have a CB worthy of the 10th pick. (BTW, I'm not saying I agree with them) What does that leave?

 

The best player available might be ILB Keuchly or possibly safety Mark Barron.

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You're correct. He'd be starting over Morrison and alongside Barnett and sheppard and would be playing alongside Barnett and Scott in the nickel. Sheppard is not very good in coverage. Kuechly is. He'd be starting and playing 3 downs. What more do you want from a 10th pick. Just because other 1st rd Lbs haven't panned out, doesn't mean kuechly won't. He'd be starting on our team for a minimum of 5 years. He's a very safe pick in a spot we can't afford to swing and miss

 

He is not a game changer. He doesn't score TDs, prevent the QB from getting killed, take away WRs or TEs, prevent long scoree or sacks the QB. He stops RBs and tackles on short passes. That is NOT what you want at #10. You want a player that directly puts points on the board or stops points from being scored. That is not what he does.

 

Other LBs were taken in round #1 which much better pedigrees than his and haven't panned out. He is not a Ray Lewis, Patrick Willis, or Urlacher...

 

Again at 10, you want a player who impacts the game. A pass covering LB who does NOT rush the passer is a blown pick this high....You can get a player later on who can play good zone and tackle....

 

A WR or CB is much better at this pick, even the SS Barron is a better pick at this position. Never said he isn't a good player, but for what he will be doing for us at 10 - it is a waste. The facts don't lie - high picked LBs NEVER work out...

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Keuchly has big stats, but he's not a true impact guy like Patrick Willis was. I think Floyd is an impact player. Keuchly, he might be a better Poz that can cover.

You are right on with Keukly. If he were the next Patrick Willis I'd be praying for him to fall to the Bills, But he is NOT. I've liked Floyd all along but I have been influenced lately by the Mark Barron comments. Most dominating D's have a dominant safety, and from all accounts Barron can do what Keuchly can do and more, so I'm leaning to Barron with the wide out coming in the 2nd.

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