Mikie2times

Didn't see the drive eball, but I would tend to agree with what you said. Throw out progressions in the two minute drill for a lot of the plays that are ran. If the defense will give you 10-15 on a RB flat or drag checkdown, you take it and you get your arse downfield. Eventually you have to take your shots, but I have no problem with EJ taking what the defense was giving him and getting into position to take that downfield shot (if that is indeed what happenned).

Thanks for all the excellent feedback guys! I used to post a lot, but the last decade or so, well, I think it's taken a few years off all of us. I feel as if I somehow decided to try and take a step back from the Bills. Just not take it to obsessive levels, too much disapointment. EJ really made me think, both good and bad. It stands to reason with the way the preseason played out with his injury that he would be running a fairly plain offense the first few weeks. Even outside of that, how many rookies really get the full playbook right away? It's pretty rare seeing the young ones getting deep into progressions, so this might just be an area that will be difficult to judge for awhile. Slow release comment, was more based on slow decisions not his actual release. I don't remember how quick of a draw he has. Sounds like it's pretty quick once he makes his mind up, my concern was how long has it been taking him to make his mind up. Why So Serious? With work the way it is, I just can't see myself ponying up for the Ticket right now. I'm just immeresed in work every Sunday from 9am to 9pm. This team does look exciting, young, love our WR's. I just think I will wait to go Sunday Ticket until I feel things are gelling a little. At that point I will get my shift changed. Chris Heff- You hit it on the head with my concerns, but thanks for expanding on what was happenning at FSU. Sometimes it's really hard to figure what is creating the issues when you just watch. Scheme, players? Sounds like scheme and players didn't exactly compliment EJ at FSU. It sounds like he has a lot of things to be encouraged about. Also sounds like a lot of unkowns. Par for the course I suspect with any young QB. The forums seem excited which is exciting to me, I'm just trained so half empty on this team. I'm sure many of you feel that way. I have to say it was that game winner that had me thinking big time about what we might have. But then I read about the INT just prior (later I noticed on replay the PI probably forced the INT) I also noticed the blow coverage on the fade at the end. So the pessimist in my came back out again and discredited the game winning drive. At this point I feel much better about it though, as well as EJ. More responses welcome, just wanted to post, thank, and ackowlege those that provided insights into our new QB.

I work every Sunday, I don't have Sunday ticket, and I live in a market that has local feeds for both AFC and NFC match ups. Point being, I hardly get to see this Bills anymore. I follow them on NFL.com, it's just hard seeing live footage. I'm trying very hard to see EJ Manuel as our franchise guy so I was hoping for some perspective on a few specific areas of what you have witnessed. I had watched several college games Manuel played in over multiple years, probably 7-8 total, and my perception of him was slow release, slow decisions, and loose with the football. It was also clear to me he had excellent mobility, massive strides, cannon for an arm. Just clearly a very athletic player. I have read great things about his character since we drafted him, so plus in that department. So I know he has all these intangible qualities that I should love, but watching him at Florida State, I just didn't think he was a guy that would put it together in the areas I talked about. Namely release/decision making/call it progressions etc. In my opinion that is what makes it in the NFL as a QB. I was very concerned when we drafted him and I understand I'm not the end all by any stretch, I mean Colin Kaepernick? I also saw a ton of him at Nevada, never saw that in a million years. I did expect Wilson and RG3 to be studs. Same reason I was worried about Manuel but the opposite. I saw those guys progressing down with reads and being athletic as Freshman. It was clear watching both those players even at a very young age in college they could do just about anything. So the question(s) is when you have watched Manuel live what have you seen in terms of progressions? Is he checking down? Throwing a lot of predetermined throws based on pre-snap reads? Is he being given only 2 progressions? How is his timing in getting rid of the ball? I'm seeing great stats here, but I'm not seeing how he is reaching those stats. I would love to think his head is on a swivel and he's delivering to option 4, but I'm worried it's a lot of stuff that limits his progressions to the extent we can't get a read on him. I take this all in the context that this is a very young starter, so even if he isn't making progressions well now he could down the road. I'm just curious as to what people are seeing in this specific aspect of his game right now. Thanks

That's what I was sort of getting at with these speed base offenses not functioning in the NFL. To much speed to counteract it, so he would basically be relegated to a first year NFL spread system? Meh...Not overly appealing. He is one sharp dude though. The 4th down data is similar to Bill James approach to baseball. Studies have been done, you likely can locate them online pretty easily, just regarding HC's leaving points on the board by punting on 4th down to frequently. That in otherwise unheard of circumstances going for it actually has more long term value. Similar to going for 2. Damn the score, if you have a 50.1 conversion rate, going for 2 will provide more points then going for the XP. Obviously Kelly is not going to go for it inside his 30 or something that crazy, but maybe,just like the MLB game coaches have been doing it all wrong? Would it be that shocking? I know Kelly is very much data driven, maybe he is the guy that can be NFL's Billy Beane. Again, huge risk/reward, but after this many seasons of sucktitude I'm ok with a Home Run swing on this hire.

The biggest role in innovation for college football the last 10 years has been the spread pass and run offenses. All these offenses use speed and space. Kelly then added the element of turning it into hyper mode. Often times defenses are hardly even set. It is a wonderful offense to watch in the college game but in no way is it functional in the NFL. Similar to what Steve Spurrier learned, another spread innovator but of the passing variety, you just don't have the time per play, space, or speed advantage to execute such an offense. That's not to say Chip would run the same system, but then what are you left with? A guy running the spread offense in the NFL who has zero experience in the NFL? People also have valid points about player management and motivation in regards to the CFB/NFL. That is always a concern, even more so when dealing with a coach who has no NFL playing experience. What I like about Kelly is he could be that 1 in 100 type of guy vs another guarantee to mediocrity. This is an extremely high risk/reward scenario. Kelly is very smart, he understands that coaches are keeping points off the board by not being aggressive enough. He would revolutionize the NFL in 4th down attempts. He understands that on 3rd and 5 if he doesn't get it, he's going for it, but he and his players do so with zero hesitation. Why wait for a defense to adjust and tie it's shoes just because it's fourth down? I love that he predetermines his 4th down calls on 3rd down. He will analyze the NFL game and try and take advantage of every subtle detail that is physically possible. That's just who he is. Either perspective, it would make for a very interesting signing.

Loved this when I watched it, even made my wife laugh who hates the "F" word (Football), so if it's been posted before my apologize. It is very funny, hit a little close to home, but I think most of us are like him and would rather turn our sorrows into humor. http://youtu.be/tRBDMMVctu8

We won some games I did not expect us to win. Some teams are falling off as others creep into the picture. Here is the latest update based on what we know. As you can tell from my previous post prior to the NE game a lot can change in a couple weeks. Obviously a massive game looms ahead. Prior I was focusing solely on wild card, but is it that absurd to think we can win the East? We sit pretty in tiebreakers and it's no more absurd then the fact that we can realistically talk about this after half the season. So the East is in the picture, assuming we don't win the East and New England does, then we have the WC. So lets see how that is shaping up. East Jets- @BUF, NE, @DEN, BUF, @WASH, KC, @PHI, NYG, @MIA Pretty sure we will know if the Jets are in this race in four weeks, maybe even two. The game coming up is critical but you also have to remember they follow us with the Patriots and play us again in 2 weeks. It is not must win, not at least for us. Similar to the Bengals game, a win puts us in great position. Assuming we split, then it comes down to the division tie breakers. Us going 2-1 vs Miami twice/New England the last week vs NYJ 1-1 vs NE/Miami once each will give us the edge in that situation. North PIT- BAL, @CIN, @KC, CIN, CLE, @SF, STL, @CLE (4-2 AFC) I expect Pittsburgh will win the Division and help mop up some of our WC competition in the process. CIN- @TEN, PIT, @BAL, CLE, @PIT, HOU, @STL, ARZ, BAL (4-1 AFC) + H2H tiebreaker This Bengals team is much better then people give them credit for. That said I don't see them going 5-4 with this schedule, and they better not, because the Bengals are the only team who has us by the short hairs in tiebreakers. BAL- @PIT, @SEA, CIN, SF, @CLE, IND, @SD, CLE, @CIN(3-2 AFC) A very cake like schedule a month ago looks a little more difficult. The nice thing about the North is all these teams still play each other a lot, which is a bit of a catch 22. Two of PIT's contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati still play each other twice. We wan't teams to stay under 10-6, but if either BALT or CIN establishes themselves it's unlikely both will stay under that threshold. That said the fact that they all play each other so much almost guarantees both BALT and CIN will not go 10-6 with PIT winning the division. The rest...... Tennessee- We still play them and they seem like a fringe playoff contender. Oakland- Devalued heavily, Carson is not ready. In my opinion the WC spots will come from the East and North. Unlikely with scheduling that either division will take both. So we have two ways, beat out the Jets or beat out both Baltimore and the Bengals. When I started this thread I did so like usual, good fun. But it's starting to look like we appear on the likely side of the playoff picture. Now we need to take care of business against the Jets. A win this week and our chances increase exponentially. It's an odd game, we certainly have something to lose, but more from what we would fail to gain in defeat, then what we actually lose. We beat the Jets this Sunday, we can make the playoffs playing average football the rest of the year and pretty much write our ticket. We lose this week and we will still control things but our position is much weaker.

I like Luck, he looks good. Seems to have all the things you covet in a QB. But I would stop well short of being scared of him being drafted by Miami. Luck does almost everything out of play action and has his entire college career. He won't have that luxury in the NFL. Stanford ranks 84th in the nation in passing efficiency on clear passing downs and distances. 2nd and 8 or more, 3rd and 5 or more, and 4th down. That's a startling stat considering they rank top 20 in nearly every other offensive category.

I agree with the original poster and don't see why he's getting so much criticism. Saying did you think the Bills would be 4-1 at this point does nothing for me. Saying we won does nothing for me. I have one goal for this team, which is the same goal I've had for over 10 years now. Make the playoffs. As we get closer to that goal (as this team appears) it's OK to dissect them more and search for reasons if we can or can't expect the drought to end. Certainly it's commendable that the Bills have played so opportunistically on defense. But when the talent doesn't suggest the turnovers, and it doesn't, and your barely winning games when your destroying teams in the TO department. How can't people think this could be an issue that bites us in the rear as we try and earn what should be the only relevant goal for all of us? End the frigging drought. We have played passively on offense two straight weeks now expecting to nurse leads with a Swiss cheese defense. I don't think the turnovers will stop, I know they will. It's a virtual certainty. So when they do, how do we perform? The turnovers have made it very difficult to get a prolonged read on this team because without some very fortunate bounces we would ave lost the Oakland game, New England game, and likely the Philadelphia game. Obviously it feels great to be sitting 4-1, way past my expectations. But I certainly feel concerned that we could struggle immensely if we stay neutral or lose the TO battle. I mean, were not just winning in that area right now, were killing people. The Eagles should have never come within 14 points today. We have the hand we were dealt with defensive personnel, but I don't expect our offense to go into protect the lead mode up 10+, with a defense like this. That will haunt us down the road.

My wife and I talk about this a lot. Both of us are more independent then anything, seeing logical perspectives on issues from both parties. We feel Obama had a very difficult situation to enter into. We don't agree with a lot of the things he's done, but still sit wondering if the next one in line will make things even worse. But the one thing that bothers us is the sheer lack of respect shown to him. He's the Presidents of the United States. It's not acceptable to talk about him like he's a football coach.

I feel it's an L. McKelvin has shown no ability to cover deep threats, Jackson is among the best. We have no ability to stop running QB's. Vick is one of the best. It's a desperate situation for Philly. Buffalo has found themselves very fortunate in the turnover department. Both with other teams not creating INT's on balls that should be intercepted, and with Buffalo converting deflections into picks. Opportunistic,sure. Likely to keep happening at the rate it has? Absolutely not. Philly might be banged up and have a bad defense. Let's see how good our offense is now that teams are going to take the middle away from us.

I don't think that's the case. It was a very bad spot for the Bills with the schedule. We were not good enough to overcome it. That simple. I made a thread earlier this week about how difficult this game would be. I didn't get one response. Everybody was drinking the kool aid. Bills road favorites off those two emotional home wins. That is why Vegas rules the world. Bengals +3 and everybody was on Buffalo.

You got to understand nobody can suffer those kind of injuries and fully trust the body without playing and a lot of time to elapsing. With each game he will get better and better. The key is that he has shown ability in his pass rush, especially speed. The power is what seems to be lacking, but pushing off while engaged has to be the most mentally/physically difficult part of his recovery. The lack of a bull rush explains the inconsistency. He's essentially been an Aaron Schobel type rusher when he's used to a fuller compliment of moves. So the bottom line is be patient, and while your doing so understand this guy is a natural leader. Who was the one in the middle of the Bills pre game huddle firing us up, working us into a frenzy like Ray Lewis? Merriman. If you don't believe me about showing some ability watch the two NFL Replays. He's shown absolute dominance on several plays this year if you watch the film. Watch the last hail mary vs Oakland and you will see what I mean. It explodes like he's out of a cannon. With that speed, once the power comes back he can be a 10+ sack guy again. IF he can stay healthy. Which to me is a greater concern then his production.

The block Corey made on the goal line speaks volumes about the type of player he is. I know that hurt him, perhaps even worse then it hurt NE's DT. When your outweighed by about 80 pounds going nearly full speed it doesn't matter if your the guy who initiated the hit, it still hurts like a SOB. That attitude can't be coached, you either have the balls to make that block or you don't. You got a great player. I hope he stays a Bill a long time.

The second it happened I text my buddy said they better kneel on this. I don't care if we only have a 3 point lead, NE will only have about 20 seconds. He's says run it in! I'm like, no dude, you don't understand. They have to kneel on it. At the same time when we did it I was in shock. I understand managing a game from a couch vs the heat of the moment are two very different things. Huge props to Chan for the management at the end. The reason this team is 3-0 is we capitalize on every mistake, make very few, and play very smart football. Sounds like the same game plan a former coach preached but couldn't execute. At the same time the difference between Jauron and Chan, is Chan is willing to take chances and trust his players not to make mistakes. He plays to win, not for the other team to lose.

DVR the Raiders game and have tonight's going as well. Can't wait.

Lets say this was a 10 yard in with the defender thinking it's a go route. The WR sharply breaks back toward the QB in perfect synchronization with the throw. In the process he runs directly into the oblivious DB who is sprinting at full speed thinking it's a go pattern. That would decisively look and be called as PI every single time. Essentially the same situation happened on this play. The only thing that makes it look less 100% PI is that it was a desperate pass and an unorganized broken play. Even having said that Nelson has a right to pursue the ball when it's in the air, and it appeared clear to me that New England impeded his ability to do so.

I grew up in the heart of Lions country so that would be a pretty amazing event. Let's just get back to the playoffs, then we can talk about Super Bowls.

To get past week 3 undefeated, multiple 18+ comebacks, a win over New England. We have faced several litmus tests a past each one with flying colors. Now we face perhaps the biggest challenge to ending our playoff drought the rest of the season. Win games your supposed to win. The Bills were not supposed to win before. Part of what makes it so difficult to repeat as Super Bowl champions or accomplish what Buffalo did in the 90's is parity. With parity motivation often decides outcomes. Players are highly motivated for most games, but you saw last week the difference between motivation and what the Bills possessed. Once you become relevant in the media all teams bring another level of play against you. Now we play a game were supposed to win, but the challenge is even greater then normal. We follow two home games with a virtual tidal wave of emotion, to an away game in which we were expected to dominate. I like the fact that Fitz should have a chip on his shoulder. That should keep us focused this week, hopefully we don't need that to stay focused. But this is the battle every team faces from becoming bad to consistently good. You start winning, then you get peoples attention, then you need to keep winning. The last part is what determines playoff teams and champions.

So about that feeling..........

Look at the 10 yard line about the 30 second mark of the Video. Not the best view, I used 3 views to come to this conclusion. One was directly behind Fitz, matched up the angles etc.

No link, I slow motioned half the NFL replay. Just wanted to see how individual players were doing regarding assignments. I watched that final play about 6 times in super slow. It was that close, and you can tell the Oakland defender had disengaged his rush, he became aware Fitz was releasing and he was trying like hell to get inside the hash. He leaps forward in effort to get the extra six inches to a foot he needed, in the midst of it Wood just drive block him like OL are taught on a jumping DL right in the gut. His legs cut out from under him as he losses balance and Wood plants him into the ground. The pass was 100% low enough to have been tipped. Saw it from 3 angles. Hell of a play by Wood which is why I wanted to bring it up. I'm certain it would have been deflected if it weren't for his effort.

Usually during a game a player or several players will make plays that don't get recorded in the stat book. Plays that will decide who wins and losses. We noticed Jones knocking the the fade route out of Chris Johnson's hands. That is the type of play I'm referring to. Without that play we lose the game. Wood made the same type of play and I haven't seen anybody on the forums comment on it. On the final 4th down play Fitz shimmies slightly to his left and ends up releasing the pass maybe 6 inches outside the left hash. Nelson catches it maybe a foot inside the left hash. In the midst of being wide open many people failed to see how close it was from a 38-35 win to a 35-31 loss. Wood engages the Oakland defender (a very lengthy individual, did not write his name down) directly on the left hash. Wood is shielding the interior of the hash with slightly inside position. As Fitz releases the ball Oakland's defender leaps in the air trying to get directly in the passing lane, a feat he would have easily accomplished if Wood did not make such a solid play. As he leaps Wood sticks him hard in his stomach, it take his legs out from under him, and he drives him into the ground. With the force he applied on that block Oakland's defender missed knocking the ball down by about 6 inches. If he doesn't finish that block the way he did and with the force applied the Raiders win.

No matter what goes down Sunday: Translation: if we win or lose We will give them hell: Translation: we will play as hard as we possibly can I can just see the BB material right now. Men, were playing a team who disrespected you. They said no matter what happens in the game they will play as hard as they can. I would rather they slap your mothers then have the audacity to say such things. Now lets go eat some humans! Rar!!!! This can't be construed into BB material if you tried.

I'm not sold, not by a long shot. New England is much, much better then us. But in sports that doesn't always decide the winner. Sometimes motivation transcends talent. I don't need to cite the countless examples of this happening over the years. It happens all the time, in every sport. That is the feeling I have about this game.