Mikie2times

Ernie Adams, yes. That said, if the information was this powerful as far as the edge it provides, wouldn't enough people have to be aware of it to keep the odds of it remaining a secret very low? This is what I will probably do all thread. If the first post said they don't cheat I would probably ask what reason would you say is the biggest factor in why BB can seem to defy the laws of football. I don't think it's Tom either. So Jimmy and Cassell also know? None of my responses are meant to be argumentative. That's what makes this entertaining. None of it, from any angle, seems like it's anywhere near the realm of possibility.

For years I have read the threads discuss the mass Patriot cheating empire that has propelled them into perennial SB contender. Personally, I never bought into it to the extent that I thought it was the main driver. After each occurrence of violating league rules the Patriots rebounded and then some. That would lead you to believe the infraction wasn't something that was a predominate factor in the previous years result. Game of inches? Maybe it was a large driver, it doesn't take much. Still, they rebound the following year as if nothing happened like clock work. In the midst of this run the one constant has been BB and TB, a Hall of fame HC and QB and two of the very best to ever serve in those roles. That in itself is enough to accomplish legendary things. The place I seem to run into a trip wire at is when I see Matt Cassel and Jimmy Garoppolo come in and look like pro bowl players. This is where the "system" conversation usually comes into play. Then my mind can't help but think how nobody, regardless if they were produced by New England or not, has ever touched reproducing this system. Not only have they failed in reproducing the system, they generally fail miserably in doing so. Then I think about the previous coaching legends. All coaching legends have coaching trees that extend miles long. The concepts they use and teach are transferred, copied, and they multiply league wide. Where is BB's tree at this point? It had a breath a long time ago, but now, virtually non existent. How can the greatest coach of this generation not have roots everywhere? None of it makes sense. That's when you start asking questions about how is it possible? If I actually let my mind go to that place, the next thing I have to ask, is if you did do something that provided a substantial advantage how the heck could you keep it contained over all this time? I'm really not of any opinion on it either way. BB could be the best HC of all time and his genius transcends anything coaches can even take with them. Maybe that is the answer. Seems just as plausible as a team keeping a secret as big as something like this for the better part of the decade. If you do believe it's foul play, I would be curious as to what you think it is and how it could be contained this long?

BS the hold on Gilmore and O'Leary questionable at best

I know a lot of SF fans called for his head, specifically for his passing game or lack of it. His route tree is not very developed and he does a very poor job creating space in the passing game. Sort of the anti Chan.... Coming up with Harbaugh, doing some unique things in the NFL with the run game, helped turn a scrub in CK into a guy who played in multiple super bowls. I think all contributed to the Roman brand. I do think he gets notoriety he may not deserve. Harbaugh was an offensive mind and likely got his hands dirty on that side of the ball. Now it's all on Roman to make it work. Still, if my primary goal is pounding the rock, he has to be my top choice. Only problem is, I'm not sure that should be the primary goal. It's a passing league and he wants to buck the trend. Sometimes that can pay off, sometimes not. Agree with everything you said as far today. Spot on.

Last year, when the offense emerged all credit was given to Roman. Absolutely no credit was given to Rex. I'm all for a good Rex hating post, but this comes off as hypocritical more than anything. When the offense succeeds he is not allowed credit, when it fails, he must take accountability. Rex IS a glorified defensive coordinator. It's been the downfall of his HC career thus far. Last year was the aberration and certainly much more damning when you fail so miserably at your greatest strength. Still, aberration. More likely than not, Rex will revert to the same issues he had in New York. He will turn this group of defensive scrubs into a top 10 unit. He will bolster about the success in turning it around. We will not see progression from the offense. At which point our base will start attacking him for the offenses issues just like the New York media did. Rightfully so when you have the title of HC.

Good post, I have actually made numerous Kap/Taylor threads just based on the similarities on the stat sheet, OC, and athleticism. It would appear Romans offense is very well versed in QB efficiency which doesn't necessarily convert to production. Not to say it's just a plug and play athletic QB system. Kap/Taylor are unique talents. Taylor even more so. Taylor is more refined than Kap. Way better head on his shoulders and better deep ball. But when a guy like Kaps first few years mirror Tyrod as far as production and efficiency measures, it makes you wonder if you should give Tyrod 20 million and the keys to the franchise for the next 5-10 years like the 49ers did with Kap.

It's the inverse of last year, that's what I expected entering the year and it was reaffirmed today. Still just one game, but hey, it's a internet forum... I think most felt if the defense could get it together, which based on injuries and 2015 was not a common opinion, we would see some progression on offense and that was our most likely path. I did not expect the offense to progress. Teams will do everything they can to make us drive the field this year. Without all those deep scores one of our better statistical offenses in 2015 since the start of the drought becomes a bottom 20-25 unit. On defense, last year was not about talent. It was about not buying into a system and the defense Rex runs requires 100% buy in. I expect we will get that this year and see the benefits. With that, even with so many scrubs, we will see a large improvement. If Rex has two shutdown corners he can do a lot with very little. We just won't be able to capitalize on defenses progression with poor offensive output. Shake it all up and it't the same thing we have seen since the drought started. If we have one unit succeed, the other fails.

Most of this stuff I felt entering the year, reaffirmed today. Taylor- Is capable of making plays no other QB in the league can make with his legs. Uses his legs to extend plays in the passing game and run. Great deep ball. Efficient on timing routes. Great head on his shoulders. This puts him in the 15-25 QB ranking range. Sadly, that is probably still the best we have seen since Bledsoe's first year. Notions of progression to the extent that he will throw players open, work the middle, deep middle, and can operate outside the previously mentioned positive traits just aren't coming. He's not bad, he's not Franchise. I don't want to pay him 15-20 million in 2017, maybe you do. Shady- Excellent receiver, explosive, very talented. Not the right fit for this system. Romans offense requires a decisive one cut back that gets up field. Shady is the complete opposite of that. Dynamic player and we aren't as good without him based on the current roster, but would rather not take a 9 million dollar cap hit on him in 2017, maybe you do. WR- Woefully depleted past Sammy. I don't think Taylor is a guy that is going to maximize 3 talented WR's anyway, but Sammy is all we have and by a pretty large margin. That isn't acceptable considering we knew it the second we lost Percy in 2015. Rex- Good performance by the defense today. They didn't seem lost. Pressure got home. Rex was known as a guy capable of maximizing talent and we saw that today. I expect we will field a top 10 unit this year even with half the unit on the IR. Give him two corners like Darby and Gilmore and he will keep a lot of teams below 21 points. Players bought in, last year they didn't, that will be the difference. I don't know what any of this means for Rex past this season here, all I'm saying is I expect we will field a good defensive unit this year. It seems like such a likely 8-8 or 7-9 squad......

I feel the Bills have a solid chance this year. I think we underestimate the potential for the defense to have a big rebound year. We get some injuries and take on the view that holes can't be filled and all is lost. This defense still has the main ingredient, which is Darby and Gilmore. Those two allow Rex to put role players in a position to be successful. That is so long as we get a buy in. Last year we not only lacked a buy in, we lacked communication. I don't expect that this year. I think we will see both improve drastically. Then you have two players on offense in Taylor and Watkins. If we get a full season from Sammy like the second half last year or if Taylor makes a stride or two.That's not even mentioning McCoy who was slowed down a lot last year, especially early on. McCoy can still be one of the best multi purpose backs in the game. Other offensive threats also have the chance at emerging. Lastly, I like the mental side of where the Bills are. Rex was embarrassed last year. He was lit up the entire off season. This team isn't ready to be a bully. They never won consistently. That said, I do think this team can embrace the roll of the underdog. They know nobody is giving them a chance. Motivational monsters like Ed Reed can capitalize on that. That's sort of the feel the Jets had in Ryan's first year they made the AFC title game. They were constantly perceived as underdogs and they used it.

I'm supportive of consistency but that can't become a rallying cry. If Rex doesn't make the playoffs, he will probably be close to hitting a league high with current coaches playoff droughts. We can hire the wrong guy and consistency wouldn't do much to help. I don't know if it's playoffs or bust, but I need to see a few things this year. Communication on defense/good defensive results is probably #1.

Sammy/long ball. A huge part of what makes Tyrod and the Bills offense go round is the long ball. If Tyrod doesn't have anybody that can clearly establish himself in that role he has no chance. That is the only thing we can do to stretch the defense. Need Sammy healthy. R. Woods is a good WR, but has no vertical game. He can't be our number one.

It's debatable if he would have ever amounted to anything even if he lived on the straight and narrow. He's in a unique situation basically becoming a celebrity like Tebow with very little NFL experience. Unlike Tebow, guys living it up. He's 23 and clearly not mature enough to handle this. I don't think I would have been either. He get's made out to be a running joke. I wonder if he's a prick in real life or just a guy that has a problem. For me, 24/25 seemed to be when I took things seriously. I'm actually surprised so many of these sub 23 years old's can. Probably based on what's at stake. Even in my idiot early 20's I would have walked the line for that money, but if it's addiction, and it looks like it is, logic really doesn't apply. That goes double for some people his age.

He drives slow so he's unlikely to arrive places in a timely fashion and he went to Ohio State, which means it will probably take him some time to learn the playbook. Maybe he will drop some of these habits if he leaves Ohio.

I don't expect you to think I would provide all the data you're requesting, but let's simplify. Let's look at average yards per offensive drive (the encompasses short fields based on three and outs as well as turnovers). So Buffalo ranked 27th in 2014 in yards per offensive drive, yet 7th in YPPT on defense. So while Rex did suffer from poor offenses in the past, that doesn't make performing efficiently in this area impossible. The Bills 2014 squad beat the best year Rex ever had as an HC with the 27th worst offense. Here is the data when he was with Baltimore. Again, a unique ability to be top 10 in yards and horrible in YPPT. All we need to do is finish 1st or 2nd in the NFL in Yards and we can be efficient as a defense in Rex's system. That or a delorean. 2015 19 15 2014 6 30 2013 11 23 2012 8 25 2011 5 29 2010 3 14 2009 1 8 2008 2 3 2007 6 30 2006 1 1 2005 5 19

Three and outs have no impact on this stat unless it resulted in worse field position. Turnovers do play a role as does giving up points on turnovers as it's the defenses job to not let that happen. The 2015 Bills finished 8th in the league in turnovers given up, so they didn't do much to hurt Rex in that area. As for ST's, is it a pattern at this point that his units under perform? Maybe that's a common denominator and certainly his previous poor offenses didn't help him. You don't think another common denominator is his no bend only break defensive style? He puts his corners on islands all the time. He runs a high risk/reward scheme. He got every advantage outside of ST in 2015 to break thru in this area, with ST likely part of his own negative contribution and while he showed his first inverse relationship with yards, he still didn't crack the top 15.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, it's late in the year, we have a chance still.

Field position plays a role as do many other factors. I have yet to be able to pin down one piece of data with a very strong relationship. Sometimes you see good YPPT with high turnovers, sometimes you see it helped having a great offense, sometimes you see it with great special teams, combinations of all the above, but generally unique to each team and not prone to heavy consistency.

I wasn't basing that opinion at all on the data I presented. I'm cautious to draw many hard conclusion on the data I presented. Other than 1. His consistency in this area is concerning 2. Something is likely creating consistency in this area or many somethings and it's possible those something still exist. 3. Poor performance in this area is a death blow.

11 Cincinnati 1 7 Kansas City 2 21 Pittsburgh 3 13 Minnesota 4 23 Los Angeles 5 9 New England 6 15 Green Bay 7 2 Seattle 8 6 Carolina 9 5 Arizona 10 2015 Yards Rank Left, YPPT Rank Right RK TEAM YPPT 24 Arizona 1 7 Kansas City 2 16 Houston 3 8 Baltimore 4 13 New England 5 23 Cleveland 6 4 Buffalo 7 2 Detroit 8 1 Seattle 9 22 Cincinnati 10 2015 Yards Rank Left, YPPT Rank Right You see why the statistic has so much variance year to year on defense. Offense does play a role and so does special teams. Turnovers play a role. After that all your defensive factors and the strategy of the defense itself. Notice Denver not cracking the top 10 in 2015? Why is that? Why does the list have so many repeats but in repeating, doing so with different profiles as far as yardage? How do teams with bad defenses rank high? What is the path toward success, that's a lot of playoff teams, can you even make the playoffs being very inefficient in this area? It's hard to crack the top 10. The formula on how they did it/do it is all completely different. Consistency is rare and poor performance is nearly certain if this rating is poor. The margins aren't big enough to lose this measure of efficiency and still win. You asked for the PPG profile and here it is. Pretty much reflective of the data in my opinion. Rex discusses being #1 always in terms of yards, never points. I would love for a reporter to ask him why that is and back it up with data that I'm discussing and see what his response is. Not trying to put him on blast, I just want to know his opinion. PPG 2015 #15 2014 #24 2013 #19 2012 #20 2011 #20 2010 #6 2009 #1 That's the million dollar question. He has had poor offense which can contribute poorly to this metric. Bad special teams can also contribute poorly. Then you have his overall strategy, which is highly aggressive. To your point, that would seem to be a logical conclusion to form. Sort of the anti Walt Corey. All I know is that the trend is concerning. It is very hard to win showing negative performance in this area. I would venture to say no team has qualified for the playoffs with a net YPPT rating 1 standard deviation below average in probably a long time. So to see such consistency which is rare and for it to be so low, it is concerning for those that hope he can break thru. Looking at PPG, what is he even breaking thru too?

Define this in actual terms, correlation is less than .20 which is considered a low to non existent relationship.

This, and that was something he was doing later in the season. Moving around, playing multiple positions. Did a pretty good job in that role actually.

Thanks, I actually was looking for as much half full data as I could. Sort of trying to look at this thru the lens of Rex Ryan minus the 2015 season. Reality is, I have a hard time coming to a happy place even though I still hold out hope that things are possible. Those thoughts are based on nothing to do with 2015. In general terms, my hypothesis, Rex has failed to adapt to the league wide aerial assault. His roots were based on learning defenses and defensive styles from a different era. While I think going run and being contrarian on offense is solid (as more and more defenses shift to pass defenders), staying large and over sized at LB, not building on 3rd down defenders at LB, not having a more modern 3-4 edge focused defense (Denver) vs being multiple. I just don't know if he understand how to adapt his system to today's game. Factor that in with an uncanny consistency to allow offenses to convert what yards they do generate into points. Just little to work with even subtracting out the 2015 Bills.

He also played those guys at 3-4 positions. It wasn't uncommon to see Pace at MLB or DT in passing downs. Same with Coples. Can't comment on Babin, but outside of the fact that all 3 players you mention had run stopping ability and 3 down ability. Probably least of which with Babin, but non of them are even remotely comparable to a one trick pony edge rusher. Again, I think we benefit. But Rex doesn't want any one trick pony's.

YPPT is how many yards it takes to generate one point. It can be measured for both offense and defense. It's not common at all to see consistency year over year in this metric, especially on defense. It is common for this metric to have a regression to the mean if teams start to deviate too much. If you want to make a few wagers next year, take a look at what teams are falling outside of standard deviation in YPPT and I would bet you more often than not you're looking at a team with value. They're generating yards or stopping yards at a rate that isn't reflective of the league average PPG based on the rate of yards allowed. The stat itself is influenced by many factors. Offense, turnovers, ST's, defensive 3rd down %/RZ/big plays. A lot of noise goes into it, but most years, the big players come postseason time are top 5 in either offense, defense, or both. Rex seems talk about leading the lead in defense a lot. When he says that, he's always referring to yards and not points. After running this data, I can see why. 2015 #19 Yards, #15 YPPT 2014 #6 Yards, #30 YPPT 2013 #11 Yards, #23 YPPT 2012 #8 Yards, #25 YPPT 2011 #5 Yards, #29 YPPT 2010 #3 Yards, #14 YPPT 2009 #1 Yards, #8 YPPT Trust me when I say the consistency of this profile can't be explained by offensive futility. Buffalo Ranked #4 in Yards and #7 in YPPT in defense in 2014. You don't see this type of consistency on defense each year and if you do, it's usually only a result of an elite defense, 2-3 years max, and the YPPT is too the positive against yards, not too the negative. Further, you don't see championship teams with poor YPPT efficiency. It's a heck of a lot easier to generate points with the yards you have and be more efficient, than have to generate more yards to make up for inefficiency. This is a death blow to my confidence level. Playoff teams don't finish poorly in this area, the consistency is overwhelming for the stat itself. If games were only one with yards and not points we would have one of the best. As is, this appears to be the anti bend but don't break. More like never bend, ever, and either win on that series or break in half.

What makes Freeney a good fit? Rex likes guys that can play multiple positions and have multiple responsibilities. The last thing he looks for is a player that can only play one position or do one thing. I don't disagree that he could be an asset in pass rushing downs but his versatility is lacking for this scheme (like it or not, I know many don't)