BigDingus

Allen is by all metrics, the least NFL-ready QB of the "big 4" right now. Not surprising at all he's ranked the lowest. Edmunds on the other hand, if he can grow into his size and gain some weight, he'll be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. He's an every down LB, and could easily be DROY if he stays healthy.

At least you're acknowledging that it's just hope and faith that have you optimistic, and that's perfectly fine. It's good to have hope that we'll do well. I feel like us not having a veteran on the roster is a bigger issue than many fans want to believe. During the draft, you could hear many former players, experts, pundits, etc. all discuss the importance of having one for a rookie QB to lean on. Hell, one former player (I forgot who it was) on NFL Network's panel said it's the single most important thing for a rookie QB to have... Our rookie not only isn't going to have that, but he's going to have the exact opposite. The 2 guys in his unit both want the starting job too. McCarron is going to take this chance to prove he deserves to be a starter. Peterman is going to try and show that last year was a fluke, and that he truly is an NFL caliber QB. Those guys might play nice, but all of them are looking at this off season as do-or-die, and won't be going out of their way to do each other any favors. Which is the complete opposite mindset as say Josh McCown, who has been in the league for 16 years, and truly wants Darnold to succeed. In fact, he said "The best thing I can do is look back in five years and Sam Darnold is in the Pro Bowl." That's a pretty incredible asset for a rookie QB to have.

I don't like that imaginary stuff anyway, because like you said, he could've just as easily had 1 more incompletion, 1 more interception, 1 more TD, 50 more yards, etc. And the 1 and a half more catches is entirely dependent on him not having thrown any extra passes too. If Allen had simply thrown and completed 1 more pass per game, his stats would be 58% completion percentage in 2017 and 57.6% in 2016. Also, his offense wasn't an air raid spread offense, but he took the majority of his snaps out of shotgun (and most of his TD's came from shotgun too). He had the same coach the entire time he was there, and still regressed significantly his senior year in yards (by almost 50%) and TD's (by more than 50%). His INT's came down by more than 50% too, from 15 to 6, but it's still worrisome that he wasn't even 1st or 2nd All Mountain West, and his stock shot up because of looks and potential as we got closer to the draft.

Yeah, probably. And that's ok too for now. I'm not going to pretend I like the Allen pick, but I hope he does well and am excited to see if he can take his game to the next level. But realistically, yes, we have 3 guys with 6 total starts between them. 1. Rookie who's a project by any means, 0 starts 2. 5th Round Pick in his 2nd year, only 2 starts (neither of which he finished) 3. Backup for 3 years, started 4 games his rookie season & 0 since. And no veteran QB to anchor and to mentor the unit. So yeah, probably the "worst" in terms of experience and on-field production.

Our O-line was problematic last year already, we lose 3 starters who all happen to be our best players on the unit, we have an even worse WR corps, we have the least experienced QB group in the league throwing to them, and from this draft only a handful of picks will make the roster. The defense improved on paper, but an injury or 2 could easily derail the entire thing. Same goes for most positions on this roster. We have almost no depth whatsoever. And man, heaven help us if Benjamin goes down (like he's known to do)...Our WR's would be (currently on roster)- - Quan Bray - Kaelin Clay - Malachi Dupre - Andre Holmes - Zay Jones - Jermey Kerley - Ray-Ray McCloud - Austin Proehl - Brandon Reilly - Rod Streater That group is AWFUL. Maybe in 2-3 more years with more drafts under our belt we'll be comparable to the Celtics, but this year? This is the true year 1 of McDermott's tenure.

Wait, what? Veteran WR's near the end of their careers rarely want to work with rookies and inexperienced QB's. We have one of the most unproven, under developed, most inexperienced QB group in the entire league. We have a rookie, a 5th round pick who started 2 games (and finished neither), and a 3 year backup who only started 4 games, all in his rookie season. A combined 6 games started between 3 QBs is about the worst situation for a veteran WR.

Speaking of offensive linemen, it's always funny to me that one of the best Bills players of all time and consistently great O-linemen Reuben Brown is often forgotten and overlooked, simply because of the Bills teams he played on. - 8 consecutive Pro Bowls for the Bills from 1996-2003 (9 times overall) - 4 time All-Pro team - Started all 181 games he played in The guy was a beast, but he was after the Kelly era, and not around for long after the playoff drought began, so he doesn't get as much talk as other Bills linemen. Just felt I should do my duty and remind people of his greatness

I don't know what people are talking about with Rosen on draft night. The Cardinals were ecstatic to get him, especially since they didn't have to give up nearly as much as the Bills. And his composure on draft night? He came off impressive to me. He sounded like Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant, ticked off that he was doubted, and ready to go out and kick ***! He said was ready to walk off the stage and go right onto the field, as he was so ready to get to work then and there. He sounded more driven, motivated and ready than any of the other cliche sound bites the other QBs were spouting off. Not to say that makes him better than any of the other QB's, only that what he said came off as anything but poor to me.

So I wanted to do further research into what others thought about Josh Allen. I had already read reviews, opinions and grades from most of the major outlets I follow, and read plenty of more that were posted on these boards. I had watched plenty of games & videos of him in college, yet still wanted to get a better sense of why myself and others still don't feel optimistic about his prospects. People always post all the positive things said about him & why he's going to do awesome, and that's fine. But there are legitimate reasons for be worried, and these grades/opinions reflect those concerns in similar ways. Do I think he will fail? No, not necessarily. But going off history, there's far more evidence pointing towards that than him becoming a franchise QB. Here are 14 brief (mostly) snipets of reviews/grades/opinions on the pick, many of which I highlighted the commonalities between them. "Strong Arm" being echoed, while things like on-field play, accuracy, ability to read a defense, performance in big games, football IQ, pocket presence, footwork, etc. being absent is usually an awful sign for QB's, as is being a "project" or "raw" when you have 0 veteran QB's on the roster to mentor you/sit behind & learn from. ********************************************************************** 1. Rodger Sherman (The Ringer) - "The red flags of draft QBs, all of which must apparently be treated equally: MAYFIELD: too short to play QB in NFL? ROSEN: too smart to play QB in NFL? JACKSON: too fast, why put him at QB in the NFL? ALLEN: cannot throw football to other football players" "I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown. There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process. But the Bills didn’t just draft Allen. They traded up to get him, giving up two second-round picks to move up five spots. That’s a massive overpay on any draft value chart. And then the Bills also traded a third-rounder to the Ravens to move up from the 22nd pick to the 16th to select Tremaine Edmunds. Trading up is the move of a team in win-now mode. The Bills did so—but they selected a quarterback whose supporters even consider him a project. That doesn’t jibe. I’m so happy that the Bills got to the playoffs last year, and so confused about their future." 2. Gennaro Filice & Nick Shook (NFL.com) - (Draft Rank: Bills #23) "The top pick here generates the most buzz, but I'm in the group that thinks he doesn't end up panning out, due to multiple red flags too often covered up by a rare arm. My opinion on Allen's fate aside, the potential is still there, and Buffalo didn't have to move into the top four to take him" 3. Dan Kadar (SBNation) - (Bills Draft Grade: "The draft for the Bills will be judged on whether or not seventh overall pick Josh Allen becomes a franchise quarterback. If he does not, the Bills paid a steep to go up and get him. If he does, it’s obviously great. Personally, I question whether or not he’ll become a more accurate passer in the NFL." 4. Ian Wharton (BleacherReport) - (Bills Draft Grade: B) "They were able to acquire Josh Allen for the cost of tackle Cordy Glenn, two second-round picks and the No. 7 overall pick. Passing up Josh Rosen, a much more natural passer and safer choice than Allen, looks like the wrong decision at the moment. Their grade would've been higher had they landed Rosen instead of such a volatile prospect in Allen, but the rest of their class was impressive." 5. Luke Easterling (DraftWire) - "I like a lot of what the Bills did after they traded up for Josh Allen, who will take a lot of time and patience before he’s ready to face an NFL defense with success. In retrospect, they could have stayed at their original pick, still taken a talented quarterback, and used the picks they traded away to build a stronger supporting cast around him" 6. Sam Monson & Steve Palazzolo (Pro Football Focus) - "The rumors were heavy that the Bills would move up to take Josh Allen, and they did just that. Allen has a cannon for an arm, combined with the size and athleticism to make spectacular plays outside the pocket, but he comes with big question marks in key areas, namely his accuracy and decision-making. He’s ranked among the nation’s worst in negatively-graded throws over the last two years and he finished 29th out of 38 quarterbacks in the draft class at avoiding turnover-worthy throws last season." 7. Steve Ruiz (USA Today) - (Pick Grade: F) The Bills gave up two second-round picks for the right to draft a quarterback who is nothing more than a strong arm. Allen is inaccurate, struggles to read defenses and is uncomfortable from the pocket. Other than that, he’s a pretty good quarterback. This pick isn’t all that surprising. After all, this is the same team that thought Nathan Peterman gave it a better chance to win than Tyrod Taylor. 8. Vinnie Iyer (SportingNews.com) - (Bills Draft Grade: D) "Edmunds and Phillips were the standout picks for Sean McDermott's front seven in his first draft with Brandon Beane. But this grade is based on the fact that Allen is likely to be a big-armed bust. The QB wasn't worth the trade, especially at the cost of two second-rounders. The Bills drafted like a team set to return to the playoffs; their glaring weaknesses on the offensive line and at wide receiver should have been addressed earlier. QB desperation is never a good way to draft, and it led to a chain reaction that gave Allen and AJ McCarron little support." 9. Nate Davis (USA Today) - "Allen has as strong an arm as any prospect in recent memory and underrated athleticism at 6-5 and 237 pounds that will make him a red-zone weapon on the ground. But his 56.2% completion rate in college is a concern, and he never really dominated largely average competition, posting just two 300-yard games in three seasons for the Cowboys. If Allen proves he's not NFL-ready, which is the expectation, AJ McCarron was signed in free agency to serve as a bridge" 10. Kyle Silagyi - (BillsWire) - (Pick Grade: C) "Josh Allen can best be described as an enigma. He’s what somebody would draw when asked to sketch a franchise quarterback. He’s 6-foot-5. He has a cannon for an arm. He’s an elite athlete. On paper, Allen is a franchise quarterback. The game, however, is not played on paper. Throughout his college career, Allen was never really able to live up to the hype surrounding him. In 2017, Allen completed just 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,812 yards. Sure, part of Allen’s struggles can be attributed to his poor surrounding cast, but his struggles can also be attributed to his poor footwork. The fact that Buffalo had to part ways with two second round picks for the opportunity to select Allen doesn’t help his grade, as that’s a fair bit of value for a team to give up on a project quarterback. If Allen pans out and develops into a franchise quarterback, this grade will be an A+ in a few years. If he’s a bust, this grade will be an F. However, we’re not sure how Allen’s career will play out just yet, so the pick’s grade is as average as you can get." 11. Aaron Schatz (Football Outsiders) - "I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen" 12. Frank Schwab (Yahoo! Sports) - "Allen has all the physical skill in the world. You’re still gambling on a guy who wasn’t first- or second-team all-Mountain West last season. That’s a big risk, especially moving up" 13. Nick Bromberg (Yahoo! Sports) - "Taking Josh Allen over Josh Rosen is going to haunt the Bills for years" 14. Jason Owens (Yahoo! Sports) - "Wow, the Bills gave up a haul to take a QB with accuracy problems." ********************************************************************** Now throw in that our already shaky O-line lost its 3 best players, our WR corp is only Kelving Benjamin, he's 0-3 in games against Power 5 Conference teams, has thrown for 1 TD compared to 9 interceptions in those games, regressed significantly last season compared to the year before (threw for half the total yards and less than half the TD's), had just as many games throwing for 0 TD's as he did throwing for 2 or more last year (3 total for both), and that he's now expected to somehow get SIGNIFICANTLY better playing against far more difficult competition...I'm just not sure a "once in a generation arm" is going to be enough...

And this is Evan Silva (OP's guy)... Not like one is more intimidating than the other, nor does one's appearance mean they're any more or less intelligent/accurate than the other. Many well respected "experts" and pundits haven't even played at the college or pro levels. On the other hand, sometimes there are guys from one sport who become analysts for other sports they weren't involved with. Hell, our very own Marcellus Wiley talks up basketball all the time. I hear him on ESPN radio making predictions and discussing opinions on NBA events daily. My original point was there are many "scathing" reviews for the Allen pick, and it's easy to see why. You can be the biggest Allen supporter ever and still acknowledge the fact that he's got the most red flags and needs the most development time.

But hindsight is 20/20, and nobody really knows how these things will play out. Bortles had a pretty solid year, but who knows if Watson would've done the same thing for them. Hell, even if he would be the same player no matter where he played, many teams didn't predict that. Some teams always look brilliant, while others walk away with egg on their face. Hell, the Steelers could come out looking like geniuses if Ben goes down with an injury for a few games this year (seems like he's out a couple games every season), and Rudolph lights it up while the "big 4" fail. Everyone will think they knew something nobody else did, and fans will be asking why their team didn't draft the guy. It's just hard to know year to year what will happen.

I dunno, I think Rodger Sherman's review was a little more scathing: "The red flags of draft QBs, all of which must apparently be treated equally:MAYFIELD: too short to play QB in NFL?ROSEN: too smart to play QB in NFL?JACKSON: too fast, why put him at QB in the NFL?ALLEN: cannot throw football to other football players" You've also got his in depth review: "I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown. There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process. But the Bills didn’t just draft Allen. They traded up to get him, giving up two second-round picks to move up five spots. That’s a massive overpay on any draft value chart. And then the Bills also traded a third-rounder to the Ravens to move up from the 22nd pick to the 16th to select Tremaine Edmunds. Trading up is the move of a team in win-now mode. The Bills did so—but they selected a quarterback whose supporters even consider him a project. That doesn’t jibe. I’m so happy that the Bills got to the playoffs last year, and so confused about their future."

Lol yeah it is...people who cook their steak like that should be forced to live as vegans. And yeah, my comparison needed some work. Although "experts" called Allen "raw" all the time, while Rosen was always the one who's they claim is already good to go & start now, well done steak does not come across as a positive option

I knew this post was coming soon enough. It was only a matter of time. This whole summer we'll find out every little detail, and he'll likely say all the right things to endear himself to the city. But eventually games will have to be played...and that's when fans will decide what they really think.

If we're making steak comparisons, Allen might as well be raw meat compared to someone like Rosen who's well done... Wait, that sounds gross on both ends. Nvm...your comparison was better.

I'm not sure how much of Allen I'd compare to Rodgers, but yes, Allen has a fantastic arm. If he's willing to throw deep (or if our now even worse O-line will let him) he can find a lot of success. In regards to Tyrod, you're spot-on. Benjamin isn't a speedy receiver. He's fast enough to get open, but his skillset highlights his ability to run routes and catch 50/50 (or better) passes over DB's. Benjamin is a great weapon, make no mistake about it. Tyrod refused to throw him open, or throw him any jump balls. However, that was Tyrod's problem with all receivers last year. 90% of the time, Tyrod would only throw to WR's that were open by 5 feet on all sides of the ball, or within a few yards of the line of scrimmage. He wasn't just risk-adverse, he was downright timid. People used to say he was "efficient" because he didn't throw INT's....but as one NFL writer explained when discussing Kirk Cousins, "efficient" isn't just not throwing INT's, it's also being alert of what's going on around you, and general awareness of game time situations (i.e. if you're down by 20+ late in the 3rd quarter, and it's 3rd & 13, is it "efficient" to drop back for 1 second, then dump the ball off to your RB for a 2 yard gain?). Tyrod at his best was at least good for 1 or 2 deep balls a game in his first 2 seasons. He still only barely scraped by hitting 3,000 yards in a season, but still, managed to make a few plays. In 2017, Tyrod put Trent Edwards to shame. Every time he threw deep, it was almost as if he was doing it for show more than actually attempting to complete the pass. The balls would float several yards over both the WR & DB's heads, straight out of bounds, with no chance for anyone to catch the ball. It made it LOOK like he wanted to go deep, but without any intention for the ball to make it in the hands of anyone. Hopefully Allen plays with a little more fire, but also has the mindset to get over making mistakes. He'll throw some picks, but will he have the balls to keep attacking? We can only hope. /rant Here's the thing scouts, fans, and "experts" tend to overlook - having a veteran QB on the roster, and giving a rookie QB TIME to develop, are MASSIVELY important to the growth of the player. Some QB's come in day 1 and do just fine all on their own. But many rookies, including those who start day 1, have an experienced veteran on the roster to help anchor them down, be someone to lean on when they're struggling, and learn how to properly lead an NFL locker room from. Even though Favre wasn't wanting to give up his starting spot, he still played a pivotal role in allowing Rodgers to gain experience & knowledge while he became acclimated to being in the NFL.

Just realized this was all the 2016 season, nothing from last season. Also, the majority were good TD passes, but there are a few things worth mentioning. - He's at his best rolling out to his right - His 3 & 4 TD games come against bad teams except for Boise State (UC Davis, Air Force, UNLV, and San Diego State) - Good amount of play action (although it's out of shotgun) - WR's had to make some great catches, but that's true of all QB's from time to time - A couple of TD passes wouldn't have been TD's in the NFL (need both feet down) - Against Big Conference teams, he was 0-3 with 1 TD and 8 INT's - Against Nebraska, he had a Nathan Peterman-esque game, throwing for 5 INT's. Also, his 2016 season was FAR more successful than his 2017 season. He threw for half as many yards, and less than half the amount of TD's in 2017, as well as having a lower passer rating (his INT's went down too though). He did play 2 less games overall however. It's fun seeing his TD's in a vacuum, but it's also not even close to a true picture of his playing abilities. Whether he looks good, bad, whatever, it's just a fun way to look back at certain moments. Thanks for the video.

It's exciting but scary at the same time. On one hand, if Allen shows some real promise this year then it'll be awesome going into next offseason with all that cap space. On the other hand, if he shows JP Losman/EJ Manuel "potential," that cap space could bite us in the ***. GM's usually don't want to accept they made a bad pick, and will likely double down the following year citing the need to "surround with talent" in order for the QB to succeed. Then they waste big money and draft picks on skill position players that can't elevate the QB, and set us back years to come. We could go all in on the next Lee Evans or Sammy Watkins, make splashes in Free Agency, trade pieces to beef up the defense, etc. but if the QB doesn't show actual growth, it might be all for nothing.

I'd click both options if possible. No, I didn't want him, and I wasn't a fan. He's shown nothing in college that leads me to believe he'll be a good NFL QB. On the other hand, he's a player on the Buffalo Bills now, and therefore, he's my guy. I want nothing but the best for him, and I hope he does what no other college QB with stats like his has done and breaks out in the NFL.

The Josh McCown quote still makes me nervous. The Jets have the perfect veteran QB that has all the experience in the world and wants to legitimately help the newcomer. We have Nathan Peterman and AJ McCarron for Allen to learn from.

Not good honestly. Mainly because our offense, which was already very bad, got notably worse unfortunately. 1. Rookie QB that is an extremely raw project 2. No Veteran QB for rookie QB to sit behind or teach rookie QB 3. No QB with on-field play and stats in college as bad as Allen has ever become a franchise QB 4. Porous offensive line that got substantially worse (Woods retiring, Incognito retiring/un-retiring/asking to be released, and Glenn being traded) 5. WR corps that consists of Kelvin Benjamin and: Quan Bray, Kaelin Clay, Malachi Dupre, Andre Holmes, Zay Jones, Jermely Kerley, Ray McCloud, Austin Proehl, Brandon Reilly, and Rod Streater.... 6. Shady is only getting older I think our defense will improve by virtue of adding DT's Star and rookie Harrison Phillips, but adding Vontae Davis over Gaines is an upgrade as well. Our safeties who were already a good tandem, should be even better in year 2 due to being in the system for longer. Hopefully, along with the White being in his 2nd year, the secondary creates turnovers more consistently like they did in the first half of 2017 now that the DT position is stronger.

Roscoe Parrish 2.0 (except slower). Actually, he's more Wes Welker than Parrish. McCloud / Welker Height - 5 ' 9 / -5 ' 9 Weight - 190lbs / 195lbs 40 Yd Dash - 4.53 / 4.55 Broad Jump - 113.0 inches / 113.0 inches Only difference is statistically on the field, as McCloud didn't do nearly as much (he wasn't ever a real focus) compared to Welker (who played in an air-raid offense).

He wasn't even 1st team or 2nd team All-Mountain West Conference player.... yet he's suddenly going to kick it up to the next level against MUCH more difficult competition? He was 0-3 against Power 5 conference teams, and threw for 1 TD and 8 INT's against them. Even against non-Power 5 teams, and the benefit of colleges picking and choosing their opponents (usually lining up some Division 2 schools and easy wins to pad their record), Allen was not impressive ON THE FIELD where it actually mattered. In college, QB's can have outrageous stats if they're even half way decent, chunking the ball downfield left & right. Allen somehow managed to have worse numbers than Tyrod Taylor in College in the Mountain West, averaging 164 yards a game last year, with only 3 total games of throwing for more than 1 TD (he threw for 2, 3 and 4 once each). He had just as many games throwing for 0 TD's. And what other QB has ever had a 56% average completion rating (along with all the other poor stats) in college and managed to somehow get it up to the 62%+ needed in the NFL to actually be respectable? No matter what can be said about him, the Bills gambled and took the absolute riskiest "top" QB in the entire draft, and they don't have history behind them to believe they'll turn him into a franchise guy. **Edit** And the excuse "well maybe the talent around him wasn't good enough!" because that doesn't work either. The opponents he played for the large majority of his games had the same level talent to work with. Plenty of QB's from smaller schools, even those in Power 5 Conferences that don't put much into football, have come out of college having fantastic on-field play to backup their "potential."

I'm glad you're excited, and I certainly will give the kid a chance. I'll support all these guys until they give me a reason not to. But if Allen pans out and becomes a franchise QB, he will be the first QB in all modern NFL History to do so after a college career such as his. And the odds of the Bills patiently developing a guy as raw and unproven as him, coupled with being able to be the first team successful in turning a guy like that into gold seem worse than winning the Powerball. Not once do I remember a QB being drafted whose hype was all around arm strength, hand size, height, weight, athleticism, etc. and not around on-field play, accuracy, decision making, ability to read a defense, wins against good competition, stats, football IQ, etc. turning out well. The "project" QB without a single veteran QB on the roster to learn from and sit behind also doesn't bode well.

And here's another quote, this time from Gregg Rosenthal (NFL.com), that also says quite a lot about the problem with the Allen trade - "The Bills traded out of their No. 10 overall pick a year ago, passing on the chance to draft Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson in favor of amassing draft capital. This season, the Bills used significant draft capital to trade up for quarterback Josh Allen (moving from 12th overall to seventh). The kids would call that hustling backward, especially when Allen has an uphill climb just to surpass previous Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor's level of production. Bills fans will point to this being the first draft for GM Brandon Beane, who was hired last May, but that only emphasizes how tricky it is to come up with a cohesive roster when the GM and coach are always in flux. Allen could prove his skeptics wrong, and his athleticism is unquestionable, but Josh Rosen has clearly displayed a more obvious NFL skill set. Allen is reminiscent of a souped-up version of another Bills first-round quarterback: J.P. Losman, a player with accuracy issues who was a star in the pre-draft season because of his measurables. Losman was taken 22nd overall in the 2004 NFL Draft and proceeded to compile a 10-23 record in Buffalo."