YattaOkasan

Have you considered that Frazier leaving was his corrective action? If that was you would have to agree he didnt throw him under the bus. Overall the departure of Frazier is a really great counter point of McD not throwing people under the bus. He could've slammed the defense but didnt.

I agree it will look like more traditional 11 and we shouldnt expect Kincaid with his hand in the dirt. Couldnt find 2022 data easily but 40% 12 personnel wouldve put us 2nd in that personnel grouping for 2021 (think league jumped in its usage though in 2022). That would be a big jump considering we were second lowest usage last year from what I remember from podcasts. Though I will cede that we had a fair bit of 21 personnel with Gilliam that can easily become 12. For the 25% of snaps as "tight end" (assume you just mean the "Y" tight end. "F" is still a tight end to me too but different as you are alluding to) do you think thats with Knox on the field or off? Sounds like we might see it really similar if you have Kincaid's snaps as 40% in 12 and 25% in 11 (I have it as 30% and 30%). Appreciate you expanding on your thoughts here and just your general contributions to this community.

Its still a clear passing down so they will not get the matchups they would get in a passing or running down. I think Sherfield and Harty are both better separators (Davis potentially too) against the personnel that would be seen on this type of down. I am up and down on the big bodies. I see what youre saying but I wonder if the data supports that logic (does it matter or does Josh run well enough no matter how many TEs). I agree that Kincaid is gonna be one of our best pass catchers. Knox being in for protection is part of the reason I could see for why he would be on the field. Thanks. I agree that 12 usage will increase a ton I just hesitate to say it will be the majority or plurality (11 is my expectation). Thus I think in this clear passing down situation it would be 11. As I mentioned above I could get on board with the idea that Knox needs to help block before leaking out. Guess the follow up is how much 12 do you think we run? Greater than 40%?

My sanity check applies to everyone saying Kincaid and Knox for this hypothetical. If youre calling 12 personnel in this clear passing situation, do you think we are a majority 12 personnel team now? I would expect us to put our best passing options on the field a majority of the time, and if 12 personnel is the grouping for this clear passing down then arent you saying well be a majority 12 personnel team? I dont see us as a majority 12 personnel team yet (hoping for 25%+ which puts us top half of the league)

Hmm... my intrigue in 12 personnel is cause of the match up problem it creates. That personnel grouping was alluded to earlier in this thread that it would "stress" the defense. Are both Kincaid/Knox really gonna be better than WR3 at getting open on a clear passing down? Youre saying yes cause they are our four best receiving options. From that logic, can you tell me if you expect us to be in 12 personnel the majority of the time? I just dont see that happening this year.

So your point is he was fired (unfairly in your opinion) and thats throwing him under the bus. I dont see McD pointing the finger at him or anything. They let go a coach they had put time and effort into developing so you just conclude that its to throw him under the bus? Will note your opinion for how the season works out.

No sweat. I think 3 was a mistake in the situation referenced here but would not have blitzed. Ultimately, I also put this on the players though (gotta know down and distance). Agree with your comment of the spy.

It works against Mahomes really well. I hope we continue using it against him and Burrow. McD sorta gave that guy his only shot in the NFL though right? If anything I think Salgado would love McD considering his growth from Defensive Asst (2017-2019), Nickel Coach (2020-2021, this is a position that McD created), and Safety Coach (2022) with the Bills. Is parting ways with a coach throwing them under the bus (I dont see any comments from McD about him even)? Not disagreeing that someone has been thrown under the bus (ST coach was what I thought you would use), but this seems like the wrong example.

Your math looks good to me and yes the intention is to have more fair catches. But I dont think its as simple as no more KR ever again (not saying you said that, but someone else did). If fair catch goes up 5% then 1/3 kickoffs is a return. Thats still quite a few to the point where I would say its hyperbolic to say it doesnt matter (agian not you saying that).

For 4th and 8 I am not sure I have both Knox and Kincaid out there. Need more receiving ability imo. Yes 12 puts stress on a defense but thats if they think youll run it. Nobody is gonna think well run on 4th and 8. I have Diggs, Davis, Harty, Knox. If its 4th and 4 or less then yes give me 12 personnel with Kincaid in for Harty.

I dont think so. Punts are unchanged and I think I heard Joe Marino said NCAA saw a ~5% increase in touchbacks when they did this rule and thats the goal of the NFL. I think you would still see a return ~50% of the time. Additionally if teams are dropping coverage players (cause they think KRs dont matter) a really good return unit could take advantage.

I agree he’s worth keeping an eye on. First his dad was a good coach that urlacher had introduce him for the HoF. Second he was asst defensive back coach (2017) and safeties coach (2018-2021) during Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde’s ascension to best safety duo in franchise history (dare I say league history?). Third both tremaine edmunds and Matt Milano had their best years in his first year as LB coach. I am very excited for him as a coach.

Deonte Harty is mine. I think he works his way onto the field and becomes a weapon we are clamoring for more of.

Figured if there was an exception to the rule this could be it. but i understand.

I know we have sam martin but little surprised the Bills didnt sign him and allow him to still negotiate with other teams (maybe NFL doesnt have a process for that either). Maybe it was offered and declined. But at least he could be on PS. not as good as being a starting punter but start to give back some of what was lost.

While were flaming the OL any thoughts on pro football reference giving this years OL a better pressure percent than previous years? or that it was top 5 for pressure%? i hesitate with these type of stats that require some evaluation but found it striking. Dont think they are top 5 but think they have been better than previous years. I think we have some recency bias that causes us to perceive it different (2022 the OL fell off and 2021 the OL grew stronger). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/advanced.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/advanced.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/advanced.htm

Would add 2020 playoff game against colts. thought the bills got outplayed that game but Josh saved us (he did have a late fumble that we recovered).... That broke the playoff win drought so i think that context puts it on my list

Agree they dont preclude us from signing Houston. But I think they have a decent shot of making the roster. Assuming Von is on the PUP to start and they carry 5 DE (how many they carried at times last year) then they just need to beat Kingsley Jonathon. If only 4 DE on active roster then either has to beat out Boogie Basham. I don't think either of them beating Boogie Basham is that much of a long shot let alone Kingsley Jonathon.

Agree with a lot of the thoughts: Bills too low but not top 10. Would add that considering how much production Allen has with our WR you have to have him super high on QB rankings. Def ahead of Burrow considering their weapons.

Is the reason for the number of 24 year olds this draft because of the extra year during covid?

Thanks. I do think this is how it gets done. A simple restructure by the cardinals to eat money. Also appreciate you indicating conversations beforehand because that also makes it easier to get done during the draft. Based of that I guess it would be the Bills wanting to see who is there at 27 (OMG Im still taking Nolan Smith and would be happy Beane didnt take the trade yet). Yeah I think you have to. Board seems preoccupied with idea of needing another weapon versus some pretty glaring concerns at edge.

From Joe Marino's chart last night its a late third for DHop. Also am wondering abit about the how of that deal. would need to agree to a restructure during the draft or cardinals would have to eat cap. We can't just take him on our roster without some financials working through right? seems tough to do while on the clock. I put nolan smith but would love DHop too.

I like this move but prove to me he is better at stopping the run. The data doesnt agree for the games he played for Edmunds. I think the only game where you can argue he stopped the run better than edmunds is the Detroit game last year. His other games in substitution of Edmunds (2021 Colts, 2021 NYJ #1) would suggest hes worse than Edmunds.

Butch Byrd should be in every post. I can’t entertain anyone. Dude is still our interception leader with 40. 5 time all star! Love a lot of the other names I’m hearing but they haven’t accomplished nearly as much as butch.

Appreciate that context that I missed. I agree Miami should throw the kitchen sink. I think they still have to run but need some explosive plays to keep up. Sorta why I think they run a Hill wildcat package.