YattaOkasan

5.2 YPC says it’s working pretty effectively. I think chargers were playing inspired after old coach was fired as the players wanted to prove they were not the problem. 2020 they tied it and I think we were a Taiwan jones drop away from sole possession. Crazy thing is I think they set up that play for him (wanna say against NE for some reason) and he biffed it.

I don’t disagree that we haven’t really given Josh too much vertical take the top off the defense speed and foster is a good example of that type of player. I don’t know what the yardage numbers are supposed to show but the deep ball has pretty consistently been part of the offense from 2020 to Dorsey firing last year. I can try to find some stats but Josh had been taking chunk shots to WR as the primary passing threat. It’s kinda amazing that Brady and him have added the short passing/YAC threat to the offense. But if they find a good player that has take the top off the defense speed that would be very fun.

John Brown.

They only have 2(!) DL over 300 pounds and one of them has been inactive with some regularity. We should just lean on these dudes. Another game of no negative plays on first down so that we dont end up in obvious passing downs against verse.

So.... more duo is what youre saying? I like it.

Two things. First I think they should stop coaching the slide. It provides minimal protection and is clearly causing confusion. A head first dive would have better protection and equally end the play. Imagine this play happens in the playoffs. Jags would be screwed even if they won. Second I dont know why we want to give the refs more subjective calls to make. Particularly to make a play with a subjective call a 30 yard swing. If you wanna do slide when someone is coming in you might get hit (sometimes illegally like any play). Cause you open yourself up so much it causes the defense to salivate at getting a chance. If QBs protect themselves better defenders are gonna wind up to crush them less. For the going out of bounds its the same thing. Players don't protect themselves. I'm not sure I would flag someone who hit someone that just took a step out of bounds (exceptions of horse collars and face masks). Make players protect their bodies better. Yes it will come at the cost of yards but these plays are becoming so crazy cause runners arent protecting themselves as they go out.

Yeah they are in a really good spot. So much a good spot that beating us doesn’t really even help them and losing to us doesn’t hurt. If they beat us the only advantage they get is they can lose to SF next week if they beat the jets the following week. If they lose to us the only harm is that HAVE to beat the jets and SF and hope for a Seattle loss which seems super likely. But no matter what happens against us they HAVE to beat Arizona and Seattle in the final 2 weeks if they want to make the playoffs. If the roles were reversed I would expect McD to not rush players back for this game.

Having to win out almost? Our game is sorta inconsequential. They need to beat their divisional opponents in 3 of the next 4 weeks. thats the must wins for them. if they lose to us it really doesnt hurt them at all and if they beat us but lose to any of them they are pretty cooked. Edit: played more with playoff machine. If they beat us and the Jets all it affords them is the ability to lose to SF next week. Rams just need to go 1-1 against us and Jets if you think Seattle will lose one more game during its remaining tough schedule.

Jax last year is pretty clear example, but that has weirdness of travel (also not totally Josh's fault, thanks for the fumble diggs).

I think we agree that those highlights were more on Pat than Worthy, but I dont disagree with the idea of the tweet that the chemistry is off (could be Pats fault). Will disagree that deep ball is not a strength of Josh. Hes not good at it this year but since 2020 hes been very good. I think hes found a great connection with Cooper and Coleman and Im looking forwarded to seeing his CPOE (completion percent over expected) to increase in the coming weeks on 20+ yard throws.

Theres a fair bit of nuance to it. In 2020 Allen described his improvements to throwing the deep ball as dropping a pin on Google Maps to meet me here. Now some of those pins in that highlight were comically bad but its not fair to say that the QB should just put it on him. He has separation but the defense (particularly in the zone coverages being played in all of those plays) has time to respond. So the QB has to drop a pin somewhere and on a couple of those they were not on the same page. https://www.buffalobills.com/news/5-things-we-learned-about-the-bills-from-the-2020-nfl-combine

Useful video for you as you continue to keep this fight. It really is the explosive runs where were super poor but I aint mad at that being the thing where we are weak. But outliers which explosive runs are will blow up your average. If the yard/carry data was more granular i think the median (probably still is anyway) would be a better metric to track.

This is hardly must win territory for the Rams. If you think Seattle will drop one of their games against GB or Minn (pretty reasonable), then LA still has control of their own destiny if they lose to us. They can win the rest of their games (again assuming Seattle drops one of those games) and they will win the division. It really helps that they still play each of their divisional opponents left. Those are the must win games. They could drop either game against us or the Jets and still have a great shot at the division (only needing one more Seattle loss).

Not sure what to do with all this good news. Quick give me something negative.

Definitely possible as they are only one game out of the division lead. What we did was sorta impossible. We were 6-6 chasing 8-3. Not only did we catch them we got the 2 seed!!! Pretty bonkers.

Yeah would love to see the splits with WR vs RBs (maybe its buried in there somewhere). Can look closer for yards after contact that would be interesting and agree that Henry was dragging folks. I will note that I didnt mention LBs and DL. They are involved in the run game are not the best at missed tackles. I agree i trust our secondary more to defend the best passers more than best rushing attack, but thats what they are there for. To your earlier point if we want to stop the best rushing attacks we need to control the LOS with the DL better. Baltimore was the only game I thought we definitively (and ultimately decisively) lost the LOS. At worst in other games I think we played the LOS to a draw, which with light boxes means yards.

Sorry I was focused on the playoffs as I think that was in your post. Not stacking the box does cost them plays (probably worst at number of explosive runs in the past few years) and games (Balt and Indy 2021 as great examples). But when it comes to the playoffs its that we let Mahomes play out of his mind against us (and it really is only us as his other numbers in other games are good but not great).

can't believe im saying this but i agreed with Rex on that. I wouldnt coach it anymore. Get down and dont take the contact but the slide leaves you vulnerable to nefarious actors.

Tua's 125 passer rating felt like the reason why they kept it close. Mostert and Achane were more efficient as pass catchers (90 yards on 10 targets versus 119 yards on 22 carries). I would still make stopping the pass the priority. Ravens and Lions have great rushing ability but they also have great passing efficiency. Its the passing efficiency that gets more yards and adds more points as measured by EPA. I agree the rush defense will come down to the D-line controlling the line of scrimmage. Disagree on tackling in the secondary needing to be better. Some MT% in the secondary for reference (Rapp: 1.6%, Douglas: 3.9%, Benford: 2.2%, Johnson: 0.0%!!!!!, Hamlin: 7.9% worst of starters, Lewis: 11.3%). These are tremendous numbers (Bills are currently 2nd in missed tackles with only 40% coming from secondary players). Last year they needed to do better as White, Douglas, and Hyde were all above 10% (Benford, Johnson, Rapp were all doing worse than this year too). Basically every secondary position has a lower missed tackle percent than last year with the exception of Safety Hamlin versus Poyer and Dime backer Lewis versus Rapp.

I dont know that he started his slide late (thats subjective), but some of the objective things about his slide in your post are incorrect. Lawrence was noted as down at the 45from pro football reference (the following play was 3rd and 1 from the 45 because of ridiculous offsetting penalties) indicating (as your rightly noted) he began his slide there. Thats another 2 steps by Lawrence and 2 steps by Al-Shaair so hes probably only 3 yards away (maybe less). However, none of this is meant to excuse Al-Shaair of what he did. Considering the slide started at the 45 and contact was made at the 43 thats a fair bit of time to realize the play is over. Clearly he was head hunting and he got the punishment (maybe light honestly) he earned.

One big difference though relative to previous years is that our corners are much better in coverage and we can play more middle of the field closed defenses (cover 1 and cover 3). This should let us roll a safety into the box when we need to while not really sacrificing much in the passing game. Though these defenses are weaker against the short passing game (less 2nd level defenders in Cover 3 and horizontal routes can be tough in Cover 1) which has been a sneaky problem for us this year.

DeJean gets to play behind Jalen Carter. Certain we would take that player if he were available. But I dont see DeJean as a better player than Taron though slightly bigger. I think he benefits from an otherworldly DL in front of him.

This is the best arguement so far for why its a problem. I put stats above on Passer Rating but YPC in our losses has been around 6. That could open up the pass a bit. Worth noting our worst playoff loss in '20 was the one in which we stopped the run the best (though the offense looked out matched in that game). Some of it is weird though. Hardman pops a 50 yarder on 1 carry in 21. Thats not a traditional run play. Burrow has 21 yarder in '22 not a traditional run play or what he typically does. Last year CEH and Pacheco (ended up not being a scoring drive) get explosives from traditional run

Show me a game where we lost cause of the run? What I see as common in our PO losses is inability to stop the pass (Rating by year: '23 Mahomes 131; '22 Burrow 101, '21 Mahomes 123, '20 Mahomes 127). The best evidence that our run defense is an issue in the playoffs is '22 when Burrow ONLY had a rating of 101. Meanwhile there are quite a few games you wouldve expected teams to lean on the run to beat us ('23 Steelers w/ back up QB, '22 Miami w/ back up QB, '21 Pats w/ Mac and after hurricane bowl showing were soft, '20 Balt in elements w/ LJ). If our run defense were truely a problem why did we win all these games while giving up <20 points (exception being '22 Miami where Josh went YOLO with TOs).

he has been rated as one of the top run defenders for years though. 15 TFLs this year! Below is a link to a cover 1 article preview that cites PFF stats (not grades cause yuck) as #1 at run stops as a rookie and top 10 the following year. I think hes been super productive with sacks still lagging a bit (12th out of all DL in pressures, 2nd in QB hits). Be ready for him to get $25 mil/year this offseason. Why does our run defense "suck"? I think we dont care about rushing yards between the 20's. We play nickel and never have 3 LBs on the field (unless a goaline package for a 3rd/4th and short). So yes its coaching because rushing yards between the 20's are not a priority. They stiffen up when it gets to the red zone. https://www.cover1.net/gregory-rousseau-technique/ https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/defense_advanced.htm