YattaOkasan

Chiefs could hand us a loss too so thats why i prefer them to get another L. Of the BAL and KC, KC has the better chance for the one seed primarily cause they have not played us yet and have more control of their destiny. Thus im rooting for KC to get another L.

I agree they will come back to earth (why i have them as worst division winner). But considering I want KC to miss out I gotta find a WC from another division and the South seems like a good option cause of how soft it is.

Im thinking the seeding below. Really hope LV/NE could spoil KC's opportunity 1 Buffalo 2 Baltimore 3 LA (could switch with BAL) 4 Colts 5 Jax 6 Den 7 Pitt 8/9 KC/Cin 9/10 LV/NE

Bolded is why im saying KC for the loss. We dont know if that will be true for KC (could be the opposite and we end up needing to STAY a game ahead of KC). Agree if KC loses this week they are fighting for a WC spot. If KC win this week I think the division is still very much in play (and potentially the 1 seed cause they still get to play us). To your point I agree that BAL probably wins that division (even if they lose this week) and understand why you want them to get another L to keep them out of the 1 seed. KC is flawed but its not like they have looked inept. I could still see them figuring it out on defense and doing just enough to run back last years formula.

Odds machine would be interesting data to support some of this. Thanks for mentioning. I think cause of the games left KC would have a better chance at 1 seed than BAL. Ill see whats out there. Woah the one below is cool. In a funny scenario I did Chiefs win and both BAL and KC missed the playoffs and we got the 1 seed. Sign me up for that scenario. Not sure why they cant update odds better (im not clicking simulate 100 times lol). https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-playoff-predictor

They went 15-2 last year with very much the same team. I think it’s premature to say they CANT go on that type of run. They haven’t been blown out of any of these games. Yes they look weaker and I expect them to drop some games but I said that last year (don’t know about you). That’s why I would like to stack another L on them

Were using Chiefs > Ravens (your preference) as a starting point. Then Im projecting forward a bit to our game against Chiefs. If they also beat us they will be in fine position. They have plenty of loseable games but if they beat us and BAL then I don't think ONLY 2 more losses against that schedule is much of a leap. As mentioned above, I expect us to beat KC, but if we dont and they beat BAL (your preference) then its gonna be a close race for the 1 seed. If BAL beats KC then our game against them has less importance. Im all for making our road easier to the 1 seed easier. Making a future result have less meaning is seemingly the easier path to the 1 seed (again aligned with you). I agree with you that BAL is the better team and has easier path to the division win, but we will always have the tie breaker over them. We dont know yet if we have the tiebreaker over KC. I think our difference in opinion is you dont think KC has a chance to contend before the playoffs and I still see a path for them. If you think they still might contend then give them the L cause we still have to play them.

Thats the fascinating part of this topic. Sure they COULD have 4 more losses and I expect it. But I also expect us to beat them. If they beat us then Im questioning that first expectation too. We could easily drop 3 games besides the chiefs. If they right the ship and only lose 2 games after beating us (and the Ravens) then were in trouble. I do agree with your thoughts that Raves are better and they have the easier path to win their division. But the unknown that comes with not having the tie breaker has me saying the chiefs.

There is a world where the 2-2 Chiefs beat us and then were not the one seed and have to play through this gauntlet we have been talking about.

Fascinating topic. Thanks OP. Im weighing the Ravens being better and having easier path to winning division versus us not having played KC yet. I think not having the tiebreaker in hand means I want KC to lose. If we lose to KC then were likely the ones going the tougher path. We now have essentially 3 game lead on the ravens. Our road aint easy but that should be sufficient. If we lose to KC we only have a 1 game lead on them.

Heard Rousseau had a bone bruise on his knee. Hoping Landon Jackson gets a jersey going forward. Him plus hoecht should ease bosas load

He was inactive after that Broncos game (got pulled during it looks like). And yeah that was a rough move to pull him back in the middle of the game.

I was happy he used the stiff arm to prevent getting lit up. CB has to slow down when he presents it else hell just slide off the tackle. The throwing arm part is a good thought. Wonder how often people get injured on stiff arms versus hits near the sidelines.

Now he is but when he first came out it was easy. 2020 as a rookie he came in for an injured fitz and they won a bunch of games in a row. But was clearly more the defense (I think there were multiple defensive TDs) and when asked what he thought about the NFL he said he thought it would be harder. Proceeded to get beat by the broncos enabling bills to cruise to first division win of this era. But when he said that I was happy to root against his smugness https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/tua-tagovailoa-says-he-expected-transition-to-nfl-to-be-a-lot-harder-explains-reason-for-rookie-success/

Thanks for clarifying. Was legitimately confused. DQ is the 3 in that picture above. Very interesting. Got any thoughts? Wonder if film reviewers have caught this (haven’t watched cover 1 analysis yet).

paired with Sanders?

If youre saying that we got some luck go our way to pull out a close game then sure week 1 and the playoffs were similar (along with every close game). But the game scripts were opposites to me. We had a solid lead for much of the playoff victory and they were playing catchup. In week 1 it was the opposite and we were playing catch up the whole time. This defense is still figure itself out so Im not fretting about the run defense yet and will let it play out more before i do worry. I agree getting better is the primary focus; so do you also feel better after the run defense we showed yesterday?

I don’t even see Wallace in the league. Couldn’t find him on the jags roster.

Reynolds is really their only WR of note after Wilson. Means more attention can be paid to Wilson so that’s good. Michael Carter probably plays but he’s average to above average starter. New coaches so last year doesn’t mean much. They will blitz (5th highest % week 1) and play man so I agree they’ll be aggressive. I would just throw to whoever sauce is not guarding. Preferably whoever Stephen’s is covering. Sneaky game for 11 personnel though if they wanna leave Michael Carter out there against 12 we should be happy to mash them. Tough to use that data because it was with a different team/coach and it was like 0 deg at kickoff.

35.3% blitz. you aint kidding (5th overall). Also strangely all AFC East teams were in the top 5 for Blitz %.

Fair for DT. I think NYJ edge are a bit better (including depth) than BAL. Hope they can hold up. Q Will has wrecked things for us before and that’s my fear. Torrence seems to be our equalizer for him.

Maybe this conversation is missing the weight of rushing versus passing. If both are equal maybe it’s fair to say the ravens are clearly better. But passing is more important and we clearly have the better QB (for passing), pass rush, and pass catching backs. Ravens are great on the ground but passing > rushing.

I think NYJ has a better DL than BAL and that worries me a quite a bit.

Glenn messed this same situation up for the Jets. Could have had 40 seconds more in the first half he had been more aggressive

Logically it dont make sense. How were we in position to take advantage of one TO (that came really late in the game) if they had this game circled as revenge (all reporting from the sideline was they were just having a good time) and they are clearly the better roster? To me it seems that they had a lot to prove and set out doing it. We are similarly talented and so we kept pace with them (particularly through the second half) so that when they made a critical mistake we were in position to take advantage. Simply being in position to take advantage of ONE TO means they are not clearly the better roster.