YattaOkasan

Said it couple times today even but it all is very reminiscent of 2021. I distinctly remembering Cowher saying he was changing his SB pick to the Pats cause they were back and we didnt have it after the hurricane bowl. Team took that L ("Are you embarrassed?") and the TB one and turned it into a great playoffs that probably shouldve ended in a SB trip. https://www.aol.com/news/bill-cowher-changed-prediction-super-180950022.html

That Steelers game was a while ago. Take hope that we did something similar in 2021 where we had to win out to get the division and we did. Its no guarantee but we have seen it done just a couple years ago.

I get more TB in 21 vibes (OT and got ref'ed) but agree its similar. but then again so is this script. Bills come on strong late in the season with Josh Allen. We have won out in December every year since 2020. Out last losses of the season have been against good teams before we go on a tear at the end of the season. Cards Week 10 2020 (best month of football in my life), TB week 14 2021, Vikings week 10 2022 (though Cin game ending prob helped). Would also note the deepest run we had was to AFCG in 2020 when we had a week 11 bye. I think later bye might set us up though we still have a pretty big hill to climb.

Didnt realize this thread was around cause i dropped off this site when its so toxic, but the 21 season has been something i have reminded myself of all season. it was really dark after that TB game that year. The genius of bellichek (only 3 passes in a hurricane) looked liked cowardice to me. We needed help and we got some and won the division. our end of the season is/was harder than 21 but now that were through cowboys and chiefs i think its clear how these seasons are similar. McD has an incredible record in December. rooting for this to be the year that he matches his Dec work in Jan/Feb.

His logic means Kelly is clearly better than Marino right?

Someone needs to give us the turnover worthy % from PFF. Heard Josh's is way down this year. Dak had like 6 yesterday.

Why do you think the NFC is a lot better than AFC? I think AFC is +8 in the H2H, and I dont know that Cowboys are that battle tested (only 3 of their 13 games are against teams 0.500 or better right now). Agree with alot of your assessments though on play style and areas of concern; though not sure about poor defense in the second half as were are top 10 in pp2ndhalf. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/afc-vs-nfc-record-win-loss-record-conbined-2023 https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-2nd-half-points-per-game

You mentioned in another post that we might extend him (I assume to get his cap number down?). I wouldnt mess with his number next year as its very favorable at 9 mil. I would consider guaranteeing that number and give him a few non guaranteed years on the back end. At 30 I am expecting a cliff in the near future but his contract for next year looks great. Agree that cutting next year may not be the right path cause it only saves $6 mil. Liked a lot of your work in this thread. Thanks.

I remember some weird decisions in bills games. like 2019 when he decided to send his kicker out for 53 yard FG on 4th and 5 when said kicker had missed 2 shorter FGs already and they were down a TD. I remember being shocked they were even attempting it and of course it was also a miss.

Are you complaining about high level narratives in a thread titled "oversimplification" sheesh. Agree 1/4 in RZ is not great and is a dip from what we typically do. If you wanna keep an eye on it sure. Would also say we scored on 6/9 of drives prior to the game being out of hand (shakir TD). That is a great number for a jets d only allows scores on 34% of its drives. 38.5% is league average against a top 5 defense (4/9 after Shakir TD which is good). Why is that a challenge or struggle or whatever misspelling word you were trying to say? Take away the run by Shakir and we still did better than average against the Jets and the whole 4th quarter we didnt try. In fact you rely a lot on stats after the Shakir TD to make your points (RZ being the exception). Nothing from the offense after the Shakir TD should be used for concern or confidence cause its not very representative. Its not all sunshine and rainbows for sure, but that performance from Sunday beats the performance from either the Chiefs or Eagles last night. Now we need to see it consistently which has for sure been a problem.

Sure but we got the second most total yard against the Jets in the past two season (and that was with us taking the foot off the gas in the 4th quarter). So is the score inflated yes, but we did move the ball on that defense.

is this true? We gave up 29 to the Pats who are a bad offense and 24 to the broncos who aint great either. On the flip side we held Miami in check as well as Cinci and Jax (not killer offenses i know). I dont think its as simple as we do well against bad offenses.

Statistics either.

Assuming others have said it, but this is great cause it makes it harder to shorten the game on us. Yeah you can still pick on LB but just running the ball down our throats now is gonna be tough.

Butch Byrd to the wall already please. leads the franchise in interceptions when the ball was not being tossed around as much.

Joe Marino did a podcast on it last year. I think completion % in the middle of the field was really low. But overall not worth the salary he got and Bernard offers abilities they desire more

For sure but must of the talk here has been positive and as I said his ceiling looks high. Like any rookie he looks inconsistent. Guess I would point you to spencer brown, another 3rd round/high ceiling player we had to depend on as a rookie. People were so thrilled with him (people thought his absence was why we lost the jags game) and then realized he wasn’t reliable. I see willams in a similar light. Def doesn’t have to turn out the same but I’m not taking improvement as a guarantee and right now it’s got some big lows. would also note I didn’t mind the draft pick at the time as much as others that loathed it. I think it looks better in hindsight and the logic is clear (need good play behind Milano in case of injury). Just like Kincaid I think we should temper our expectations.

I think his giants film for the most part is pretty rough but did show flashes so I’ll be super happy with a push. Cover 1 did a good breakdown (though they are higher than I am). He was responsible for two explosive plays (believe the other two were the perfect drop in a bucket throws by TT). Additionally he got beat by the same TE crossing pattern later in the game and Poyer saved his bacon. The flashes though were pretty great (Barkley coverage and taking in a pulling C) so I see the upside but if the giants can take advantage of him I’m worried what a better offense can do.

Sure but I guess which holds the defender longer. seems a bit harder to find the ball when one player could be running the opposite direction from the RB (versus standing next to them or not running as fast)

What seems to matter (and would like to see some data) is if the formation is under center or not. My thought is under center the ball gets hidden better and thus the LBs come a bit further forward. I also suspect a down and distance aspect to this. 3 & 10 is not gonna bring the LBs up as much as 3 & 3.

Im wondering too how much we turned their revolutionary wrinkle into a detriment. Looked to me like the Bills were using the motion as an offensive key to their defense. So maybe we know were sending a creeper pressure but dont know whos dropping into coverage (probably based on which side the motion is on) and whos coming (probably based off of responsibilities on the back end, so dependent on who went into motion). This type of defense would be killer cause while the defense will all know whats going on like normal (assuming rather heady players), the offense cant get a read cause the defense isnt declared til that final motion which is right before the ball is snapped. Will be asking film geeks about that this week.

That kick in the rain on grass from 50+ before half was so good. Very high leverage. If he misses then commanders have the ball at the 45 with plenty of time and only down 13-0 and looking to double dip.

I agree with this line of thought. Kincaid is top half of the league in receptions for his position and so is Cook. We are getting more production out of non WR than ever. I dont see how were "handicapped." Were number two scoring offense again yet we are "crippled" by our OL or last years OL was a "disaster." Sorta dont understand the logic of saying OL is important (maybe posters are saying OL doesnt matter with JA17 at QB) but our OL is a disaster. The data doesnt support those two things being true.

Agree both Miami Defense and our Offense have not been as good as expected. I will say we can at least point to two good defenses for our struggles. Chargers can move the ball, but 20 first downs to the Patriots could be a bit concerning. The best think Miami's defense has going for them is turnovers which can be mecurial (though its our worst offensive attribute).

What Miami's Offense did against Denver was obviously historic but I think what our Defense did against the commanders is also pretty historic. The strength versus strength battle this week is gonna be fascinating.