YattaOkasan

I can think of nothing to make them want it more than just getting neg'ed on all week by the media. we saw how it affected the offense at the start of the year. I think you wield that criticism ahead of this game to get the DL drinking blood and pissing vinegar. Indy gave Buff a good game in 2020-2021 season (the first year). When we talk about why we love Josh that game is a great example. It gets lost in the memory but it was 3 TDs no TOs with constant pressure and only 50 yards of rushing besides his legs. Defense gave up 27 1st downs!!! Rough game for the team and Josh had to do extraordinary things to pull a W from the jaws of defeat

It was a few years ago when he first joined, but i think the mental part of it explains the end of the season. I think we circled the DET game on our calendar after clinching the division, and the other games we didnt have the right mindset (maybe NYJ cause that was playoff dress rehearsal). Was very encouraged with how they came out against Denver. That mindset alone will not be enough to beat BAL but I dont think we can win with out it (first NE game we didnt have the mindset imo but still won). Watered down yet over powered for the 1 seed at the same time.

Brandon Jones?

Obviously the topic of our defense and their rushing attack is the primary question. In the Broncos game it felt like they were playing with more urgency to stop the run than recently. That brought me back to a Daquan Jones quote that "Stopping the run is all mental." With that perspective, I am super excited that there is a lot of doubt being thrown onto Buffalo being able to stop the run and being home underdogs. I think the developing narrative about this game maybe a decisive edge to win the critical battle of the trenches.

that 1/5 stat is misleading though (you didnt mention but heard stephen A say it). discount the kneel downs makes it 1/4. then add in context of holding on the third down that got missed. That would likely be a TD. Hollins catch would likely be a TD if not for silly taunting, but then we didnt score when backed up to the 18. so its bit more like 3/5 (not counting 2 point conversion). Considering how good broncos are in the RZ I can live with it but it does need to be different. 11 personnel with extra OL and ricard means no Henry? that line feels off. PFR says their WR only played 119 snaps (total 74 snaps). That means minimal 11 personnel (max would be 40 out of 74 snaps assuming no WR on the other snaps). I think this scout needs new eyes. Seems like they played 21, 22, or 12 personnel a ton.

Was CBS. found it on facebook and not youtube. weird https://www.facebook.com/BillsCBS/videos/the-bills-offensive-tackles-sat-down-to-talk-this-season-josh-allens-gift-and-gi/585005564135533/ Caught my eye cause there was not interviewer. They just chatted. The walter payton MoY part was pretty cool framing too.

I def think they are great, but high variance. Got off my original topic which was complaints about recognition being given to each team (the low end of the variance confusing me why they got so much more recognition). I expect both teams to play how they did last week which was at a very high level. I am expecting a very exciting game thats super physical

I love the split hes using this year. Wants to be on the island up on the LOS. Love that Kromer has very different Tackles on either side and can get the most out of each's talent. The Sunday night football chat between Dawkins and Brown was a pretty awesome view.

Best case scenario given how their season went. Crazy to go from playing for 1 seed to out of hte playoffs in 8 days

We also collected a few wins against teams that just missed the playoffs including Dolphins (they would be in if not for Tua injury, but they also shouldve expected an injury), Colts, Seahawks, Arizona even.

Last quarter of the season they have been dominant, but not as challenged as in earlier months. 2nd and 3rd quarters of the season they were still super high variance (granted losses were in the division and on the road but to definitely lesser teams). I dont think its that long ago.

Record against teams remaining is what he meant. BAL: 3-3 Buff: 2-3. No doubt yall can play with anyone. Would say the mafia feels a bit disrespected given what the team has achieved this year relative to what people expected them to achieve.

This place would melt down with losses to Raiders or in division to the 4th place team. They are a great team i agree, but oddly more high variance than us. The recognition bestowed on them though doesnt match the season they had imo. Still great team and a good/great season but that level of recognition should mean the 1 seed probably (not 3 seed behind a team you beat). On the flip side we had 1 second team all pro and managed the two seed in a year most pundits had us finishing third in the division and we coasted to a division win 5 weeks early. Either Josh is MVP or McD is COY if our players truly played to the level they are being recognized at.

But why 5 losses? thats the question. If MVP with an incredible supporting cast how do you drop those games. Defense thats figured out now? some of those are on defense. Yall are a buzz saw (especially with a lead) but parts of this don't add up. Having MVP + 3 more all Pros + 5 more Pro Bowlers should be a near undefeated team (more pro bowlers than 2007 Pats!). I always worry were gonna come lay and egg but yall seem more variable than even us. If both teams played the way the did in the divisional round its gonna be an AWESOME game.

I think thats fair. And is what they did last time. They threw bodies into the middle and their outside players held up. Really stymied us. Thats why I think Cooper is so important. Wasnt expecting much against Den considering their weakness is at LB, but BAL seems to have an outside CB weakness (humphrey obviously amazing but i expect him to work on shakir) that I expect us to exploit.

Agree Bal rush Def > Den rush Def but Den pass def >> Bal pass def. I think we will work the run in but i expect a big cooper day. Love that Bal lined Stephens up against Pickens without help. Give me that match up all day

Our DL rotation is pretty different this time too. Carter played almost half (46%) of the snaps. I like the kid but stopping the run is not quite his strong suit. This is also a low key time to call up Eli Ankou. I still think hes our best run stuffer and could be huge on early downs.

So cut Carter for Eli? Doesnt make sense even if true. Carter would most definitely not make it through waivers, and we can keep Eli on PS and have unlimited call ups in the postseason. Im very happy hes back but he doesnt need to be on the active roster.

Feels like they were more playing Kung Fu Chess where there are no turns and you can move at will. And Yes this is just a reason to share this fun video of what chess should really be

I like the 3 LB idea but 5 man rush with a spy is pretty limiting from a coverage perspective. It’s essentially cover 0. 5 man rush with cover 3 behind could work but you’re really stressing those front line defenders if he breaks contain.

Its crazy how clean he has played against us. No INT in the 3 games against us and 8 in the other 15 games. 9 TDs versus us 37 in the other 15. 3 sacks for us 32 in the other 15. 93 rushing yards against us 431 in the other 15. 11 fumbles in the other games and none against us. I dont know what his rating would be without our games but hes 120+ in all of them and only 105 in total. just insane how much better he plays against us. We need a pats perfect game to get rid of this trauma.

Use the median yards given up in a game. That should account for outliers better. Wish rush yards were more granular (at least down to the foot). I think median rush yards are probably a better predictor of actual rushing play than YPC NO got 97 versus an average of 78. so the KC game def skewed as it was the farthest from the median (high was 149 which means they didn’t run all over ever) Go to team page on PFR and sort by stat. If you wanna do others.

13.5 sacks! Bonitto is electric and fun to watch. Thankfully schnowman kept Josh clean last year. Bonitto and Allen had no sacks (I can’t recall how much pressure they got). Just need to play turnover free and we should be good

Yeah it’s not great. And didn’t do it for Gabe. I got more caught up in this idea that Keons catch % was worse than any year of Gabe’s. I don’t think the last game should be included in that analysis. I’ll say it again. Coleman has been pretty comparable to Gabe but has more upside. His drops have to be fixed and he needs to get more separation. I think there’s good reason to believe he can fix those things and mostly boils down to him having fewer reps at WR compared to others. But we still have to see it. I also think his upside is very high though as demonstrated by some of his flash plays. basically too much is being made of this one game that doesn’t seem representative of anything.

Literally did not say "I didn't like" it. I am saying that the game is not representative of a pro football game because winning wasnt the highest priority to the Bills. I never said I dont "like" the data. I dont think you can predict from it or compare to it. Using that game is throwing an orange into an apple crate and then talking about overall acidity level of that crate compared to another and saying they're inferior apples. I'm running out of analogies to explain data exclusion.