YattaOkasan

Use the median yards given up in a game. That should account for outliers better. Wish rush yards were more granular (at least down to the foot). I think median rush yards are probably a better predictor of actual rushing play than YPC NO got 97 versus an average of 78. so the KC game def skewed as it was the farthest from the median (high was 149 which means they didn’t run all over ever) Go to team page on PFR and sort by stat. If you wanna do others.

13.5 sacks! Bonitto is electric and fun to watch. Thankfully schnowman kept Josh clean last year. Bonitto and Allen had no sacks (I can’t recall how much pressure they got). Just need to play turnover free and we should be good

Yeah it’s not great. And didn’t do it for Gabe. I got more caught up in this idea that Keons catch % was worse than any year of Gabe’s. I don’t think the last game should be included in that analysis. I’ll say it again. Coleman has been pretty comparable to Gabe but has more upside. His drops have to be fixed and he needs to get more separation. I think there’s good reason to believe he can fix those things and mostly boils down to him having fewer reps at WR compared to others. But we still have to see it. I also think his upside is very high though as demonstrated by some of his flash plays. basically too much is being made of this one game that doesn’t seem representative of anything.

Literally did not say "I didn't like" it. I am saying that the game is not representative of a pro football game because winning wasnt the highest priority to the Bills. I never said I dont "like" the data. I dont think you can predict from it or compare to it. Using that game is throwing an orange into an apple crate and then talking about overall acidity level of that crate compared to another and saying they're inferior apples. I'm running out of analogies to explain data exclusion.

This catch percent comparison boils down to if we trust the last game. I dont. So i threw away the last game which improves his catch %. Keon has too many drops this year. As gunner has said thats coachable. He doesnt get enough separation. Again thats coachable. He has not shown much more than Gabe did statistically, but his flashes have been greater (high pointing and broken tackles). However, I think he has much more room for improvement than Gabe because hes a better athlete and has less experience at the position. No, I do not take that game into my evaluation of Samuel. I said I take nothing from that game. Others might but Im not thinking Samuel is gonna get 8 targets or match that type of production. So you have included Samuel's last game into your evaluation? You think that game means hes better living up to his contract? If you have outlier you are excluding, then you need to state your reason for exclusion. I did. You disagree. I aint being selective as that was a game that should not be in the data set and im not including it. Do we think KC's defense got so bad just now? no. The data says theres special cause affecting that last data point and its not representative. Best to exclude it from the data set.

Then you include kneel downs in your running stats? I dont think this game tells us anything and is not representative of the data. Pretty clear outlier with good reason to exclude. Its not fitting a narrative. I defined why its an outlier. I have been looking for All 22 as well but there were a lot of just throw it up. Thats catchable but not a representative sample of how he has been or is expected to be utilized. If you think that game has any predictive power then were gonna disagree, cause I'm not gonna use data from a game they werent trying to win.

Point is its a super silly game that should probably not be included in the data set. You can take away the Miami game from game Gabe's rookie year if you wanna be fair (2 for 5 removed bumps gabe to 58%, though the first throw to him was by Josh and was an int). However, I hardly think this is making the data work for us. Rather I think its getting us the best representation of what we would expect going forward because I dont think Keon will play another game like the NE game while on his rookie deal. Thus its not really appropriate to include it in the data set if we are trying to predict future performance. Now if we get to another one of these games then yes by all means we should expect him to have a low catch %. Do you include kneel downs in your rushing stats?

I see it now. The Youtube short I found had the attacking EZ angle. above showed it popping out yeah. Agree his drops are a problem.

Don't disagree on the hands but just went back and watched the video. He was not dropping that ball before contact. Ball may have popped out cause of legal contact but it was not gonna be a drop.

His catch percentage from JA17 is better than any year of Gabe Davis.

Ill agree with we havent played murders row. SoS clearly shows that we had one of the "easiest" schedules. Theres context as always. But I think we have a lot of good wins (> 1 TD margin) against 8-9 teams that just missed the playoffs (1st Dolphins, IND, Ari, Sea). Common opponents also tells some of the story too. BUF is 5-1 against and denver is 3-3 (margin of victory is +44 to +18, again DEN buoyed by silly KC game last week) Agree. Josh does have the lowest Pressure to Sack % in the league (a fact not discussed in the MVP chatter enough). But he also isnt getting pressured a ton.

Josh is #7 in pressure rate per PFR. That includes Lawrence and Mac Jones so Bills OL is just outside the top 5. Additionally, they seemed to be getting lost schematically early and gave up pressures that have since been rectified. I know they run a lot of extra OL but they also run a lot of 5 man protection. PFR doesnt have those stats but this is def a good pass protecting line. Opponents! Your line seems to be we havent beaten anyone. Our Strength of Victory is 0.448 and Broncos is 0.394. Den SoV is also boosted by that silly game against KC last week too. Only Chargers and Commanders have lower SoV in the playoffs. Were 6th for SoV in the playoffs but much lower with regard to SoS suggesting we beat some of the harder teams on our schedule (Lions and KC as has been pointed out to you multiple times).

Going into yesterday’s slop fest Keon Coleman had 27 catches on 47 receptions. Which is….. 57%. That is also not just Gabes rookie catch % but his best catch %. The drops are a problem for Keon but are correctable. Separation can even be increased (it’s not only speed). Get the drops under control and he’s a 60%+ player if you’re not just hucking the ball up there with Mike white.

He played Hamlins spot against the Jets when Rapp was back. He def competed with Hamlin some.

Agree. Also I think Dolphins with Tua are an above 0.500 team. As you mentioned Cardinals are right there along with IND coincidentally. We only played 6 teams with a winning record and went 3-3. But going 4-0 against 8-9 teams (with an average diff of +10) make this stat seem very different. Also all those losses are on the road.

Cast the game to a TV from your phone? I do this routinely if I cant get the game. I would do this in a hotel room as I cant be seen in public while watching a game.

Im hoping we drop a safety and play 3 LBs (Taron becomes second safety effectively) against Bal. Basically i hope they are cooking something special up lol.

Great write up. I appreciate how you note how release packages are coachable, as you have seen many Bills WR working on hand fighting over the years. One of the traits the organization desires out of topics is coachability so I think Keon has a good chance to improve on his ability to release (Cooper could be a great resource for this if he sticks around). This game likely tells them hes not ready this playoffs for outside work cause hes cant release. But he still seems to be a great run blocker to spell cooper some and hes pretty decent with the ball in his hands. Also agree next years plan cant be to hope he becomes a #1 but I think Cooper has really liked his time here and will be up for an extension. I think Keon has shown he still has a really high ceiling because of his athleticism but needs refinement (not shocking considering he played basketball into college and WR became the main thing recently) before he has a chance of reaching that ceiling.

Agree this is sorta what I expect at this point

lol this thread misses what Bernard does. Coverage. He has a sub 80 rating against and a low missed tackle rate. Is he a great run stopper? No but that’s not what the Bills want. Saying he’s a below average LB shows people don’t consider coverage like at all. Additionally the part that people don’t seem to appreciate is how often he knows the play that’s coming and gets the defense set. Against the Pats he audibles the defense on the TD. Last year that was a huge play on their GW drive. I assume these folks love Dorian as well. Who does Dorian look to every play something goes sideways (Devante’s Adam’s TD for example)? He’ll be ready for the playoffs and I’m happy with the dude even if he does come with some injury risk.

Not debating if the offense is working or not but that’s the signature play of Josh not just 2024. Thus the blame is not on Brady for getting him hit. It’s Josh going to the well a bit too much with refs not calling RTP enough. The data from your argument last year was persuasive (as I still remember it) but I don’t agree with the logic for this year on Brady getting Josh hurt. I appreciate your takes. Keep em coming.

Someone corrected me in another thread and it might have been singeltary but I also thought Jones had a drop on a play designed for him. I’m too lazy to look it up

Really only the trick play stands out as on Brady. As noted he is running and getting hit less as tracked by PFR. I agree he’s had some nasty hits. I think your story for Brady getting Josh hurt had more merit last year if I remember. He’s using Josh way less than that as this season is one of the lowest contact. So many of these hits are out of Brady’s control. He calls the play (and yeah the Baltimore one was a terrible one) but he can’t protect Josh from the booth if Josh puts on the cape (again this is happening less often). Maybe there’s a per snap part to it cause all volume stats are sorta thrown by the ~1 game less in snaps Josh has played.

Can you provide the evidence for the beating Allen has taken? Last year you did a good job talking about it with stats but I’m not seeing similar data. PFR has Josh taking fewer “hits” than any year 2018 (lower pressure %). Additionally Allen has less rushes than other year (plus Allen has slid better than before). It seems he has protected Allen better over the whole season (your analysis of last year still being correct)

You and @JohnNord didn’t mention the true Waldo of the defense last game, Spector. They targeted those guys but the one that was truly getting picked on was Spector before he went out. Unsurprisingly the defense played a lot better when he went out. Worked out great for US. Pretty sure he helped us in the comp pick formula (didn’t net us a pick but negated a UFA signing). I would happily take that from Hamlin and consider the pick a big success (7th round iirc). If you’re saying Hamlin should stay in buffalo on a modest contract I think that’s still a W for us cause he’ll be proven backup on a modest contract.