YattaOkasan

I guess what do you mean pissing away money? Playing but not being worth the contract is different than being a health scratch. Im not gonna disagree that LO could suck and its a wasted contract. But i would be shocked if hes a health scratch for > 33% of his available games (not counting the playoffs which could make it as high as 50%). It sorta doesnt make sense to sign him to a multiyear deal if you have him behind Carter is my thought. The only example i could find of a health scratch UFA DT was Poona Ford. Everyone else they pay they do play, but not gonna disagree that there performance has been lack luster. Thanks for explaining btw. I dont see him as a healthy scratch but if you think he could suck then I wouldnt try to dispell you of that.

That’s a lot of coin for a guy that’s gonna be a healthy scratch. So you have dewayne Carter ahead of him on the depth chart? Carter had flashes and I’m hopeful but I certainly don’t think he’s ahead of LO. Larry has at least shown high level play in the NFL (2021 with cinc). I think the question for LO is if his diminished performance was related to being old (needing PEDs) versus or pitts scheme.

This brings up a few questions. He doesnt have an injury history so why do you think hell start now. Also you dont see us in the playoffs or you think he has a season ending injury just after thanksgiving?

I think its just one christian benford and we win. let alone the 3-4 more elite players that he was talking about.

There tape reveals a very different style of play. Having a few inches but the same weight indicates hes less dense which is why Hawes is considered the blocking tight end. Watch his blocking film, its super fun and reminds me of Spencer Brown a lot (hence the confusion by multiple podcasters between the two). Couple of quick videos highlighting it below. Dude is mean.

Zach Davidson is who I think @Rubes is referring to. Ill agree and add Wande Owens. I think he makes a lot of athletic plays early cause hes athletic (9.59 RAS at FS) and i suspect has a good grasp of the play book (went to yale with Jackson Hawes).

Sorry again, what is elite? Cause Im still on the Benford is elite train (Brown for that matter too) with both being top 5 at their position. Injuries are a very difficult thing to throw on Beane especially when they havent been chronic injuries known before (youre dinging Beane for a concussion on Benford in year 3!). lastly, if Beane is top 5 what is the argument? If the difference is razor thin then I would say luck has lot to do with whos best or second best (see comment about Benford and concussion. without that bad luck we have a good chance of winning that game).

Im fine with not top 5 argument, but he does generally get credit as a top 10 cb. and if thats the difference between a HR and a triple then were pretty close and its fine. I will say the contract is sorta helpful but pretty meh. Is josh worse than Dak cause he got a lower APY (the same or worse than the other 55 mil/yr QBs)? Obviously not. I think Benford is that guy that will take a lower pay day for whatever reason. Im not gonna hold that against him during the evalluation.

For takeways its 11 for Stingley and 9 for Benford. A lot closer than you make it seem. Stingley misses a lot of tackles . Still not sure what you are thinking for home run talent cause Benford is a top 5 CB in my eyes (could be homer eyes but hes def top 10). Wheres the cutoff between solid pick and home run? If Benford aint a home run hes a triple (critque has been Beane gets lot of singles).

For Benford, fewest coverage yards snap is more than nice. Dont know what you are asking for if you think hes just "nice" and not a game changer.

Feel like were disrespecting Benford when we say Beane doesnt have enough home runs. Maybe its the Elam of it all, but thats a top 10 (likely top 5) CB. Thats got to be a home run. I would consider Brown in that category too. So 3 home runs in 8 draft classes seems pretty good to me. I get that hes not finding these home runs in the first 2 rounds like we would expect or how other teams are doing it. But I think hes still finding top 10 or top 5 guys at their position at a good rate. Another area Beane has done really well is extending his draft picks. I only got two picks that I wanted retained (Wyatt Teller and Harrison Phillips); so hardly any concerns that were letting talent walk (which is tough while paying Josh).

Bernard was hurt as a rookie? I know he had a lot of injuries in college but didn’t realize he got hurt while being a backup for Tremaine. EDIT: banged up bills has no injury history for him in 2022. https://bangedupbills.com/2025/02/27/potential-buffalo-bills-contract-extension-lb-terrel-bernard/

So a new personal best for Josh? Do you also think he has a personal best for targets too? I dont see it happening with how much they run the ball. Has there ever been a team with 5 players with 70+ receptions? (quick look says no)

We still want to run the ball at you. I’ll take the under. I think Joe Marinos target distribution prediction also agrees.

So Bosa was lucky to get 5 sacks the last two years? Sheesh. You think he’s gonna miss more games than those two years? Like you can expect him to struggle with injury but we’ve seen what that looks like. It’s the 5+ sacks he had the past two years unless you think he misses more than half the season.

Thanks. Weird we got different numbers. I used pro football reference and counted Miller like you did. Appreciate that you always share your work

Thanks but thats not counting Miller right (thought you mention Miller later...)? I had 8 from Groot, 6 from miller, 6 from AJ, and then Smoot and Solomon had another 4.5 and if we count Toohill he got 1 as well. Considering the underwelming nature of last years DE performance (and better DT play beside them), I think the over is pretty easy. Also not sure why Hoecht is considered in this group. Its all EDGE to me. If groot takes a step forward (AGAIN) then thats half the total right there. If Bosa stays healthy I think he easily surpasses his 5 from last year.

Yeah another good example though Edmund’s was still clear preferred starter and with Dorian he was the preference after Milano got hurt.

I think Dorian 2 years ago is another good example. Giants ran the same play twice and TB was pretty grumpy Dorian didn’t see it the second time.

I think we’re close on opinion and just talking past each other. We only have the OTA data to go on. It’s poor because small sample size and least meaningful reps. But from this data I put more stock in the fact that Tre is only playing with the ones than he’s not playing well. I am not at all saying he’s safe for September. I’m saying playing with ones is more important than playing poorly. If he keeps playing poorly with ones I think he makes the team cause who you play with matters more than how you play (I think this is a Brucism). So maybe we’re talking about continuing on the same path differently. You presumably mean badly and against other players and I mean badly with the ones. But if you think he gets cut playing badly with the ones into TC then we’ll have to see if the situation arises. Otherwise we agree on the outcomes. Plays better with ones and makes the team or plays badly with second string and is cut.

Yup, I said that alone doesn’t guarantee him a spot. But I recall fewer reports of Howard with the ones (also no history with the team). Do you not agree contract plus run with the ones means more? Why is Dane on the practice squad not helping? he’s in the room when on the PS and he’s available for call up twice and can be signed if needed cause of injury. They are familiar with both players and made a clear preference choice over the years. Not sure why youre resisting the idea that white is ahead of Jackson cause white is running with the ones, has more guaranteed money, and both players are well known to staff? I get that it’s June and things can change but you got to admit there’s a clear preference towards white over Jackson at this time (I haven’t seen reports of Jackson doing much of anything)

They also guaranteed 2.2 mil. That alone also doesn’t mean he makes the team. But in combination with him running with the ones it starts to mean more. Heck if Dane out performs him you probably can still stash Dane on the PS and call him up for 2 games and save 1.5 mil on the cap.

Thats a good example but I think the pertinent context is that there was an injury to the preferred starter (TB). I think open competitions are sort of a different story than what were discussing with regard to CB. Yes its a competition but its not nearly as open as MLB was. I have not seen any reports suggesting that anyone but Benford, White, and Hairston have played first team CB. To note I dont think White gets the starter job but I think its more likely than not that he makes the team because hes running with the first team. I agree if he stops running with the ones then hes roster spot would be in jeopardy. But if he keeps playing poorly with the ones all through camp and gets no reps with the twos I think he makes the team. Is this your position too? If your position is its too early to know then I agree. If forced to put money down I would say he makes the team cause hes playing with the ones rather than saying hes getting cut because hes playing poorly.

Moore has been running with the ones. Super excited for him cause his plays are in throws from Josh. I don’t think I’ve seen a single Moore from white tweet. White is QB2 at the moment which is pretty telling for Mitch and his contract. I would say history favors who you’re playing with versus the plays you’re making. Zach Davidson was making all the splash plays last camp (and OTAs) while Q morris continued to be core 4 ST starter. Last preseason game and Q morris with the hat on chilling and Davidson still making splash plays. Playing with the ones on ST was better than the flash Davidson showed. Can you give me an example of someone playing with the ones and then being cut? I gave you a relevant one that shows who with matters more than what.

Im putting more stock in the fact that hes running with the ones more than I am that hes getting toasted. Given his experience with the team its maybe not too surprising. However, I think who hes running with tells me he has a better chance of making the 53 than Dane and JaMarcus who also have experience with the team. Hes already ahead of them on the depth chart (and i dont see reports of them getting any first team reps). I still think he makes the 53 but is game day inactive (Kair treatment from last year; starting or no jersey cause no ST).