YattaOkasan

This thread needs these stats reposted. Teams are targeting him and yes he got burned by waddle and hill in man. But outside that he’s been great. He almost completed the slice replace for a pick last week. He’s rounding out well.

Agree it’s def cause of his injury. But it def also limits him in this game. Why else would they reduce his snap count? Do you think he plays 60% if the snaps (he played 43% last week)? I also think with these offenses we’re gonna see a lot of plays (59 plays is the lowest the bills have since the bye). As we both agree he’s a good player and so the less we see of him the better.

Agreed and I think beane sees other teams spending big on WR lately and is waiting for the market to swing in his favor (Shakir in the 5th is a good example this draft). I think this upcoming year may be a good time to draft early as some talent may slip. RB: what? You didn’t look at their stats did you. Bengals are one of the worst YPC and total yards. Their backs catch the ball but they are not as good running. DL you are also underselling the bills. No Hubbard and Hendrickson getting out snapped by sample and Ossai last game means their DEs are not as good. Inside Reader is great but they don’t have a lot more after that. I see a lot of areas that we should be able to do well. Biggest concern is the gap at WR (or pass catcher to include RB/TE) may be bigger than the gap at any other position group.

Agree with everything but CB. NCB is a push but Jackson/Elam > Cam Taylor Britt and Tre > Eli Apple (hope he talks trash to Diggs) Not sure about this game. Mike Hilton is a very good slot corner and I don’t remember Cole having good games against the Steelers the last 2 seasons. But it’s not true. He’s about to be the first player to have 4000+ passing and 750+ rushing in two consecutive seasons. 36/15 is very similar to 32/13. His passer rating and QBR are both up. How is it true that he’s not having the same year? Stats from pro football reference

Sure but the odds are no different considering our starting point from a pure numbers point. Clearly the starting point matters being down von and other factors.

Not really how that works. It’s like offering someone the odds and payout of an 11 game win streak after they have already one the first 6. You’re getting great odds for a 5 game win streak and you should take it all the time.

So many pages and i finally can describe why FG. both options (FG and TD) have the same outcomes (fail=tie, success=win). So consider the likelihood either fails. Missing a FG from that distance (even with the elements) is ~2% to me. The FG operation has been so good this season and has plenty of opportunity to practice in the elements. For the TD, the fail is giving up a TD when a team has 1 TO and 40 seconds. I think that has a 5% chance of happening considering the dolphins WR and our problems at the catch point. this analysis shows it was absolutely the right decision. If you disagree you must come up with different probabilities of what would happen.

Tre is a great spider man. Glad they didn’t complicate it with dion. Captain rocket seems a bit better for josh. Overall was pretty good “original” designs. I might need a copy

Shoot that must mean our run defense ranks poorly.

I agree it feels that way too. I think he showed some of the whiffs on tape earlier and now teams have figured out where/when hes good at coming from depth and when he is not. But agree feels like those players are more common. Agree. I think playing nickel will be about personnel and not how much Chicago runs (which is what the poster you replied seemed to imply). If Chicago goes 11, why wouldnt we want Taron out there when a WR has to block him. He is incredibly effective in the run game because of the personnel match up (he even plays against 12). Diggs is a treasure. It was all there to see when he was traded. He stayed at Maryland to keep his brother out of trouble when he couldve gone to a big school; his brother went to Bama. Amazing some of the things that were said about him.

Great analysis. Wonder how it will change with 1 seed being the only team that gets a bye now. That so huge to me. Might affect both the 2 seeds that made the Super bowl. This year I think its even more important because then KC will play Cinci (sorta how Cinci didnt have to play both us and KC). The only other matchup im sorta rooting for in the first round (again dependent on us getting the 1st seed) is chargers versus KC. LA has been really close both games this year and are starting to get healthy (though they would still probably blow it).

Bradshaw is def not worth listening too. His best completion percentage was 62.5%. He doesnt know what it takes to be accurate. His TD % is good at 5.4% (a tick over Josh's career 5.3), but his INT % is putrid at 5.4%. Overall, he has a below average HoF score for someone thats in (from PFR) and his most famous play is a lucky bounce. Combined he played with an all time great defense I think he gets much more respect than he deserves.

I agree the easy shot is to Singeltary on this play. I dont agree that Josh can make this play if he stays in the pocket as Warner says. If he stays in the pocket why is the spy gonna move. I think Josh opens Singeltary up by moving. Overall, agree with your other posts that he does a good job identifying missed opportunities like the McK above. I also liked the end of half play (where he shows the high low that should be thrown) and the strip sack where Beasely is wide open. I wholly disagree with the TD to Knox. That was exactly the right play. The outside guys are playing 3 on 2. He spent some time talking about throwing to those routes when Knox was the right read all day. Additionally, I dont know that Warner is appreciating the disguised coverage that Josh sees (which is weird cause im sure Warner saw it too). I dont think the 40 yarder to Knox was MOFC but rolled into MOFO after the snap. This negates some of his analysis on that play. Overall though I think Warner does a good job finding some of the meat on the bone, but think some of the other posters arent off when they say Warner is overly critical of Josh.

its a saturday game so i think it should be available. theres no other games at this time so I dont think youll get bumped. you may need nfl network though.

I think separation stats would answer this. They are a bit subjective but compare snow games to other games played by the same team that season. That would be a good indication if the offense is getting a separation advantage. I don’t have access to the stats

Unclear. I would also say that being aggressive and making plays is Milanos role so I can live with a higher missed tackle % than Edmunds whos role is to clean things up more. It has just been frustrating when folks have said in the past that Edmunds misses tackles (he is doing his best by the metric this year) more than Milano when thats not really apparent. lol. everyone is negging on our skill players but doesnt realize our offense is outperforming the chargers. I get that they have been banged up, but its illogical to say that Herbert is better than Josh and their skill players are better yet we have better offensive out put. Some cognitive dissonance there

Ive been very ambivalent about potential Hyde return. Obviously want him back on the field but also want him healthy long term. Those things are sorta fighting each other in my head. I think the place I have settled is that would like him to return behind Damar. That way he doesnt have to overplay as Damar is doing well, but if Damar gets nicked up we feel GREAT about our back up. At that point he could take over starter duties again.

I dont know where. He may mention in his podcasts this week (I think it was herd mentality). His acceptable is his feeling. I think it makes sense. 1 in every 5 attempts is a lot of misses (probably 2-3/game for a LB), 1 in every 10 seems more palatable (probably only 1 for a LB). I dont know how they contextualize these things and agree its important. If there are others about to swallow someone up, then a missed tackle doesnt matter as much as a missed one in your gap and theres noone else to clean up or one in the open field without anyone else nearby.

Thanks. I have Damar Hamlin with more by my eye than PFR (5.9%). Apparently PFF (not that they are great) had him at 14 missed tackles through 12 weeks so there is some subjectivity to all this (as I mentioned). Would like to know where Marino got his numbers https://t.co/vNJwxghrtz" / Twitter Tua is listed at PFR as second in intended air yards per target. I dont think its fair to say he throws just short and intermediate (agree on the over the middle). The dolphins run an explosive pass game that wants to stretch you vertically. Working in the middle of the field mitigates this some, but I suspect Frazier is gonna take that away. I think the elements could really affect Tua if hes trying to throw deep and outside. Also Josh struggles in poor weather? Please review the WC game against the Pats and come to the same conclusion

Yes its ~15% for Milano. Joe Marino has 10% as his acceptable level. I think Tremaine was a bit lower than 10%. As a team I dont think we have a good number.

I think there are a few people that track it. For sure its a bit subjective. However, there seems to be good agreement that Milano has an above average missed tackled rate (not good). Hes not the worst. Hamlin is the one I think needs to be better (~20% iirc) for sure. Dane could serve to be better as well, but they have managed Tre having a high missed tackle rate (though he is great in coverage where Dane is not). Poyer is also missing at a higher clip than normal this year, but I forgive him since hes playing through an elbow injury.

Beasley was not a YAC guy with us at the end of his time. Only 3.7 yards per catch is very low. He is a reliable option to catch the ball which is why i want him. Give Josh that security blanket so when he needs a play to go well he can sling one to Beasley with ease. But after the catch I dont expect much from him. footballoutsiders.com/player/39534/cole-beasley Maybe but we were favorites against Mahomes in KC. Bengals are hot but i wouldnt be surprised to see us as favorites

They did! I was so happy when they flexed us a day early. i think they got in from the week away at 7AM yesterday. The 3 road games in a row has been discussed, but I think this is a big factor. Go on the road to "bond" and fall on your face in back to back games. Now you got to come back to your family, get things in order, and prepare for the bills. hoping this really wears on them. https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/miami-dolphins-ready-for-big-california-trip

He did go to the hospital after the game. so youre right and i can edit to say "why the jets trainers thought he should go to the hospital after the game" rather than "he had to go." Its not a head issue so if he says he wants to play through the pain then noone is negligent. Respect the nit picking, but was there a harder hit on white? really wanna make sure im remember it correctly

Now with your other post I think you need to weigh the risk of punting in that weather. Considering we had one blocked already that game and Josh has been fine on designed roll outs I think the risk of the punt may have been the worry versus the risk of a TO and or them moving the ball on us after the punt (pretty much 0% with our without a TO). Lastly, I dont think McD said everything was fine with the kick after 13 seconds. I though he very quickly said there was a miscommunication on that and he took fault. This play sounded like no miscommunication (the lead up to these two plays was very different, OMG we scored a TD what we do vs we wanna take a shot after we get the ball)