YattaOkasan

We really do have a crazy number of POWs this year. And I dont think Josh has won one yet. Sign me up for him getting one this week.

Agree on this and especially Brady. Saw somewhere that KC has been awful against spread formations. I think that makes sense considering how deep their LB corps are and how limited their CBs. Spread can also help diagnose blitzes a bit better cause its hard to hide when eligibles are all on the line. This would be very interesting cause we havent run a lot of spread this year to my recollection, and were down at least coleman and maybe other receiving threats. Not sure I'm expecting it but am interested to see if Brady has a change up saved for the chiefs.

we save 8 mil if we cut him next offseason. if we designate as post june 1st we save 16 mil but we roll more dead cap into 2026 https://overthecap.com/player/von-miller/2#google_vignette

Those are some pretty good gifts. His agility is poor (though his 10 yard is great) but I think he more than makes up for that with his brain. Combine his processing and frame and you can see why hes successful. Dane was a 4.45 for reference. Ive only ever seen him get cooked once and that was when villanova played Penn State he got roasted by Dotson. Youd think if he wasnt athletic enough and was getting cooked he would miss more than 1 tackle in the past 24 games! Also he allows a sub 90 QB rating. Dude is a dog that keeps things in front of him while generating 8 FF and INT combined.

I really like 12 with Josh now. Cause it puts the defense in that bind. Do you want to put a base personnel or nickel. If nickel then Kincaid is likely blocking a DB (which he can def do) and Knox blocking a LB (sometimes a DE) and we’re getting chunks. Go base and now you have a LB in Knox or Kincaid and you’re cooked. The versatility is awesome. If it’s an obvious passing situation give me 11 with Kincaid and shakir

I feel you. But to give you some hope their Offense can stress the middle of the field probably better than any team in the league and at the time we were missing 2 former All-Pros and our only D captain. So I think reinforcements are coming there. Additionally their weakness on defense is outside receivers and we werent able to beat them there (humphrey locked up shakir and they kept an eye on Kincaid). Now we do have weapons in Cooper and Coleman's emergence to show we can attack there. For me the offense has needed to attack in the passing game the last few weeks and I feel pretty good we would have a better showing there. The game against the Lions will tell me if we fixed the defensive concerns. I gets its your opinion, and I appreciate you mentioning it. I dont like you just saying "prove me wrong." Happy that you are pulling back from that some. I do think the free stats should give some insights into what youre thinking. Are they exact on target/off target stats? No (I appreciate you clarifying what you are looking for), but you can get some insight into on/off target to support your case. Overall, I dont think the stats support your hypothesis (though its not definitive as I note below). Success rate was one of the stats I pulled. If Allen was off target I would expect this to be affected because so much of Kincaid's success has been YAC. If we look at directly at YAC/catch we see Kincaid improved from 4.3 yards to 6.2 yards and this is a bigger jump than allen has from 5.1 yards to 6.2 yards. However, this aint definitive and you could to be onto something about down the field throws that proprietary stats would be needed to show. This convo started with the miss last week but there have been some others that Josh missed to Kincaid. Good thoughts just bring some stats or ask where to look if before you dig in with a prove me wrong attitude (other guy wasnt helping which is why i entered the convo). Also note Im just a dude who likes numbers and football so Im hardly an authority. Im just super rationale so I need to know if things make sense.

There would be stats for this (they are proprietary). I think hes throwing to him less efficiently than last year which is warping the perception. His throws to him are more successful than Josh's throws on average. Getting 80% of 2nd and long is SUPER valuable and something we sorely lacked since Beasley has left.

PFR is free and super useful. Opinions without data are just perceptions. If were just gonna have a perception discussion i think that has little value and not why I come to this board. We have in the past had good conversations based on data iirc. My opinion aligns with what i see in the stats and game (confirmation bias can be real so careful), Josh is a little off throwing to him (relative to last year) but overall Josh has more success targeting Kincaid (hes so valuable on 2nd and long). I think your perceiving something thats worse than it is and thats probably cause of the drop %.

Coming with a position and asking people to engage you to prove you wrong is sorta the definition of trolling. i say this cause you usually dont troll. i think youre just being lazy. the data is pretty easy to find on PFR so i did. Kincaid has catch rates of 80% and 57% versus Josh completion % of 66% and 63%. Kincaid does have better success rate when targeted than Josh averages. For ADOT Kincaid is below Josh average each year but did increase from 6.0 to 7.2 this year (so could be some of the completion % drop). What other metrics would you use to support your hypothesis (again sorta why YOU need to come with some data when making a stance). I think overall theres a only a little bit to support this thought because of the lower completion % this year but I also think its a pretty small sample size (not helped by Kincaid 10% drop rate which would put completion % about where I would expect it to be). Youre a better poster than this to just ask for people to refute your hot take. Where is the "debate me " meme. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KincDa00.htm

that helps clarify. But you would rather Hardy as a CB (who even with injuries this year probably doesnt see the field besides coverage) versus Cod who is helping us to a league best in starting field position (also helped by the 19 TOs weve generated, 2nd in the league)? At that point in the roster I think returner matters way more (they have the ball 4-5 times a game)

If the logic is then that they are the best team in the NFL, I again strongly disagree. I think the saying "you are what your record says is way overblown." It has some value but records (like any stat) can be misleading.

Yes agree that you are not what your record says (perfect in this instance). You can very much be different. Obviously KC is a tough matchup.

Considering we have the bye after, itll be invigorating for 2 weeks if we win. But i agree in the grand scheme of things it doesnt mean much. KC does seem likely to be the 1 seed but they aint out of the woods yet. LAC has a way to steal the division if KC can drop one to Den (divisional tie breakers, if LAC beats them). I think KC is closer to Eagles style collapse last year than they are to Patriots domination of 18-0.

This logic implies the chiefs are perfect. I strongly disagree.

Dolphins scored from 8 yards out by running right at him after smoot went down. Hes not ready yet against the run from what I can tell. I also feel hes going to be very good. Hes just getting reached too easily right now. Look at how Javon gets reached at 7:30 versus how Groot fights it off at 13:00. Part of that is body composition but Solomon is gonna need to figure that out before he can do more than rush in obvious passing plays (though he should def get more of those chances).

Jet sweeps are why you cant just stack the box? But i like your idea of coleman or cooper can do that as well as be a receiving option.

I was wondering who that lady on the sidelines was. Thanks!

oops. meant KC losing to Car. that predictor is funny

This is not a case against cooper being better unless you think Reid would scheme up less for cooper

Yeah the KC loss to Car was clear about that. I would laugh

Didnt see the playoff sim but love this prediction for the rest of the reg season Edit: lol i had to look under the hood. predictor has KC losing to car in Week 12 (after we beat them week 11) while were on the bye. i would melt in joy

Several years ago is a long time and I agree incredible hands (demonstrated last night with that big play). BUT 2020 was the last time Hopkins had a better year (2021 success rate was a smidge higher for Hop). Im not sure how its obvious when Cooper had more yards on less targets last year (really every stat including catch %). I get Tenn had not good QB play but its not like Cle has had great QB play either (also a tougher division).

Yeah but their schedule down the stretch is brutal. Cleveland x2 and Cin x2 (and they still look pretty legit) are the only below 500 teams they have left. That and they have to fight for a division title. Would much rather be us.

So one question I have for this topic and generally about negative EPAs for run. Is there a way to calculate the total EPA for the other team after the play (are they likely to score -1 points in the game after a successful play). Where this is important is that a run play may have a slightly negative EPA play for the offense but may be a bigger negative EPA for the other team because the clock is running and they are losing time (e.g. run to limit possessions for Josh). If so then this could be a more positive play than passing. I think this is best highlighted by end of game situations with a lead/tie, where yes you get negative EPA but the opponents gets a much bigger negative EPA. Wondering if this is calculatable and if so then if could be worked into the calculation.

We’re currently the two seed and a KC loss away from controlling our own destiny. I know it looks tough but this team seems more resilient than teams of past. What a defeatist take. Were you thinking about draft pick last year during the bye?