YattaOkasan

I love the split hes using this year. Wants to be on the island up on the LOS. Love that Kromer has very different Tackles on either side and can get the most out of each's talent. The Sunday night football chat between Dawkins and Brown was a pretty awesome view.

Best case scenario given how their season went. Crazy to go from playing for 1 seed to out of hte playoffs in 8 days

We also collected a few wins against teams that just missed the playoffs including Dolphins (they would be in if not for Tua injury, but they also shouldve expected an injury), Colts, Seahawks, Arizona even.

Last quarter of the season they have been dominant, but not as challenged as in earlier months. 2nd and 3rd quarters of the season they were still super high variance (granted losses were in the division and on the road but to definitely lesser teams). I dont think its that long ago.

Record against teams remaining is what he meant. BAL: 3-3 Buff: 2-3. No doubt yall can play with anyone. Would say the mafia feels a bit disrespected given what the team has achieved this year relative to what people expected them to achieve.

This place would melt down with losses to Raiders or in division to the 4th place team. They are a great team i agree, but oddly more high variance than us. The recognition bestowed on them though doesnt match the season they had imo. Still great team and a good/great season but that level of recognition should mean the 1 seed probably (not 3 seed behind a team you beat). On the flip side we had 1 second team all pro and managed the two seed in a year most pundits had us finishing third in the division and we coasted to a division win 5 weeks early. Either Josh is MVP or McD is COY if our players truly played to the level they are being recognized at.

But why 5 losses? thats the question. If MVP with an incredible supporting cast how do you drop those games. Defense thats figured out now? some of those are on defense. Yall are a buzz saw (especially with a lead) but parts of this don't add up. Having MVP + 3 more all Pros + 5 more Pro Bowlers should be a near undefeated team (more pro bowlers than 2007 Pats!). I always worry were gonna come lay and egg but yall seem more variable than even us. If both teams played the way the did in the divisional round its gonna be an AWESOME game.

I think thats fair. And is what they did last time. They threw bodies into the middle and their outside players held up. Really stymied us. Thats why I think Cooper is so important. Wasnt expecting much against Den considering their weakness is at LB, but BAL seems to have an outside CB weakness (humphrey obviously amazing but i expect him to work on shakir) that I expect us to exploit.

Agree Bal rush Def > Den rush Def but Den pass def >> Bal pass def. I think we will work the run in but i expect a big cooper day. Love that Bal lined Stephens up against Pickens without help. Give me that match up all day

Our DL rotation is pretty different this time too. Carter played almost half (46%) of the snaps. I like the kid but stopping the run is not quite his strong suit. This is also a low key time to call up Eli Ankou. I still think hes our best run stuffer and could be huge on early downs.

So cut Carter for Eli? Doesnt make sense even if true. Carter would most definitely not make it through waivers, and we can keep Eli on PS and have unlimited call ups in the postseason. Im very happy hes back but he doesnt need to be on the active roster.

Feels like they were more playing Kung Fu Chess where there are no turns and you can move at will. And Yes this is just a reason to share this fun video of what chess should really be

I like the 3 LB idea but 5 man rush with a spy is pretty limiting from a coverage perspective. It’s essentially cover 0. 5 man rush with cover 3 behind could work but you’re really stressing those front line defenders if he breaks contain.

Its crazy how clean he has played against us. No INT in the 3 games against us and 8 in the other 15 games. 9 TDs versus us 37 in the other 15. 3 sacks for us 32 in the other 15. 93 rushing yards against us 431 in the other 15. 11 fumbles in the other games and none against us. I dont know what his rating would be without our games but hes 120+ in all of them and only 105 in total. just insane how much better he plays against us. We need a pats perfect game to get rid of this trauma.

Use the median yards given up in a game. That should account for outliers better. Wish rush yards were more granular (at least down to the foot). I think median rush yards are probably a better predictor of actual rushing play than YPC NO got 97 versus an average of 78. so the KC game def skewed as it was the farthest from the median (high was 149 which means they didn’t run all over ever) Go to team page on PFR and sort by stat. If you wanna do others.

13.5 sacks! Bonitto is electric and fun to watch. Thankfully schnowman kept Josh clean last year. Bonitto and Allen had no sacks (I can’t recall how much pressure they got). Just need to play turnover free and we should be good

Yeah it’s not great. And didn’t do it for Gabe. I got more caught up in this idea that Keons catch % was worse than any year of Gabe’s. I don’t think the last game should be included in that analysis. I’ll say it again. Coleman has been pretty comparable to Gabe but has more upside. His drops have to be fixed and he needs to get more separation. I think there’s good reason to believe he can fix those things and mostly boils down to him having fewer reps at WR compared to others. But we still have to see it. I also think his upside is very high though as demonstrated by some of his flash plays. basically too much is being made of this one game that doesn’t seem representative of anything.

Literally did not say "I didn't like" it. I am saying that the game is not representative of a pro football game because winning wasnt the highest priority to the Bills. I never said I dont "like" the data. I dont think you can predict from it or compare to it. Using that game is throwing an orange into an apple crate and then talking about overall acidity level of that crate compared to another and saying they're inferior apples. I'm running out of analogies to explain data exclusion.

This catch percent comparison boils down to if we trust the last game. I dont. So i threw away the last game which improves his catch %. Keon has too many drops this year. As gunner has said thats coachable. He doesnt get enough separation. Again thats coachable. He has not shown much more than Gabe did statistically, but his flashes have been greater (high pointing and broken tackles). However, I think he has much more room for improvement than Gabe because hes a better athlete and has less experience at the position. No, I do not take that game into my evaluation of Samuel. I said I take nothing from that game. Others might but Im not thinking Samuel is gonna get 8 targets or match that type of production. So you have included Samuel's last game into your evaluation? You think that game means hes better living up to his contract? If you have outlier you are excluding, then you need to state your reason for exclusion. I did. You disagree. I aint being selective as that was a game that should not be in the data set and im not including it. Do we think KC's defense got so bad just now? no. The data says theres special cause affecting that last data point and its not representative. Best to exclude it from the data set.

Then you include kneel downs in your running stats? I dont think this game tells us anything and is not representative of the data. Pretty clear outlier with good reason to exclude. Its not fitting a narrative. I defined why its an outlier. I have been looking for All 22 as well but there were a lot of just throw it up. Thats catchable but not a representative sample of how he has been or is expected to be utilized. If you think that game has any predictive power then were gonna disagree, cause I'm not gonna use data from a game they werent trying to win.

Point is its a super silly game that should probably not be included in the data set. You can take away the Miami game from game Gabe's rookie year if you wanna be fair (2 for 5 removed bumps gabe to 58%, though the first throw to him was by Josh and was an int). However, I hardly think this is making the data work for us. Rather I think its getting us the best representation of what we would expect going forward because I dont think Keon will play another game like the NE game while on his rookie deal. Thus its not really appropriate to include it in the data set if we are trying to predict future performance. Now if we get to another one of these games then yes by all means we should expect him to have a low catch %. Do you include kneel downs in your rushing stats?

I see it now. The Youtube short I found had the attacking EZ angle. above showed it popping out yeah. Agree his drops are a problem.

Don't disagree on the hands but just went back and watched the video. He was not dropping that ball before contact. Ball may have popped out cause of legal contact but it was not gonna be a drop.

His catch percentage from JA17 is better than any year of Gabe Davis.

Ill agree with we havent played murders row. SoS clearly shows that we had one of the "easiest" schedules. Theres context as always. But I think we have a lot of good wins (> 1 TD margin) against 8-9 teams that just missed the playoffs (1st Dolphins, IND, Ari, Sea). Common opponents also tells some of the story too. BUF is 5-1 against and denver is 3-3 (margin of victory is +44 to +18, again DEN buoyed by silly KC game last week) Agree. Josh does have the lowest Pressure to Sack % in the league (a fact not discussed in the MVP chatter enough). But he also isnt getting pressured a ton.