YattaOkasan

Just hop in your Delorean at 1PM and watch the game live. Just dont let us know what happened.

Great analysis for both the posts, and agree shallow is the counter. particularly mesh which were running a ton of. i dont remember a ton of rub plays in past years and for a while this season that seemed the only way we could get separation in M2M (now we have cooooop as well). I think teams are still stuck on Josh turning the ball over. Its not really discussed much but I feel as if a lot of scouting (particularly common opponents) happens in the offseason so you have less to prepare during game week (obviously diminishes as the season progresses). if true, then i could still see teams thinking they can get TOs off Josh by heating him up with extra rushers and M2M (and spy) on the back end. Great posts!

So the happy coincidence of the 4th down play is you have so many shallow crossers (no deep routes that I recall) that all the front line defenders are occupied so they cant account for Josh. It was also mentioned a few years ago for Mahomes and Josh that getting out of the pocket and the threat of the run really strains the zones because now they have to move up and sorta get out of position. Thats the fun push/pull as thats when the coverage really needs to shift to man but is hard for a defense to move as a unit.

Would be great cause then the man beater will work. You often don't run spys with zone unless youre doing something upfront crazy (see below). Spy could get to him as others mentioned, but I think Spags didnt think as spy was necessary as they looked to be in Cover 2 with a lot of eyes on the QB. This was def something we were doing back as far back as 2022 on the taron johnson game winning interception. If you recall on that play miller gets pressure and Mahomes rolls out to his right and Milano comes down to rush the play. That was a rush 3 with a spy play. Specifically not a contain rush like the rest of the game. Knowing they will pass you go all out to force him out of the pocket to your spy who forces the quick decision on the run. Challenge is this needs to be obvious passing downs.

Agree. Annual reminder that McD and Josh have an insane record in Dec. I have no fears they will come out ready after 2020 when our backups came in during the first half and we hung 50 on a dolphins team that was win and in.

Was more of a joke that came off a bit snarky. No sweat. Is aubrey a better kicker than Bass? I think yes. But I dont think difference is large (and certain) enough to justify a 4th round. If you could guarantee aubrey's overall numbers continue to Buffalo, it makes it much more favorable.

Now explain XP % indoor and outdoor? Point is that it’s not as simple as what he’s doing in Dallas would immediately translate to us.

Career splits on PFR. Indoor/outdoor at bottom. Bass is having his worst XP year (one block in there). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AubrBr00/splits/

Fair. Wilson was a bit less of a slam dunk iirc. But sauce def was (I was very annoyed with the stingley pick). AVT has been good for them as well.

Pretty happy about this. He had lots of ammo in 2022 but he found DROY, OROY, and Breece Hall. He can evaluate talent to some degree.

People gotta look at the outdoor splits (i know one is a block) but hes worse than T bass outdoors on XP. its not 100% translatable (this is before we get into questions around the whole operation, LS and holder).

I was looking at FG only. Yes Bass has more PAT misses. Again for aubrey indoors. He was a UDFA. If you trust your ability to scout well enough to invest a 4th, why not just get one in the draft. If you dont trust your ability to scout, why do you think an indoor kicker in the NFL can do it outdoors? Theres too many unknowns to be sure. Heres the cake for me. Cause Aubrey is doing great things, but in favorable conditions. He hes 86% for FG. Hes 82.5% outdoors which is the same as bass outdoors (82.5%). Its not worth a 4th yall

I get it. and there is def value to an elite kicker. but i dont think its worth the cost and potential unknown when we have potentially have a good one already. If we dont have Davis then we are gonna give carries to Evans or Gore Jr? Nah I think we get a few more first downs (and thus points) from having Davis. appreciate you talking through it though.

But the question is what would you give up for it and its crazy to me to think Aubrey is worth a 4th round. Particularly when he has as many misses as Bass and he plays in a dome! Getting the best kicker has some value but its a tricky game cause their play can be very streaky. Agree the line has moved back but Bass has the leg for it too so its not like it moves the line back much (again Aubrey is kicking those in great conditions). Aubrey has played 3 games outdoors and he has 2 misses in those games. I aint paying a 4th for that.

Game script matters. Giving up a TD on the first play really hurt. With that in mind we started working back (3 first downs on the drive) before the trick play. At that point it was just hard to stop them when they can pound the rock or abuse our 2nd level back ups with short passes.

Please hold things back and lose an extra game. would love that for us.

I def think he has a role going forward, and its the dime package. Particularly against Lamar and Mahomes in obvious passing downs i would take a DL off (leave Groot, Von, Oliver and let them go crazy) and let Milano spy. Then Lewis can play coverage in Dime. They did this against Chiefs but sub Milano for Dorian and Im pretty pumped.

Lol at all the 60 yarders. Im not gonna assume those are all in. Noone is automatic from that distance (Aubrey has as many misses this year as bass playing in a DOME!!!!!) the 64 yarder against Bal is the first drive? I have that as a 67 yarder as the ball was at the 50. the 66 yarder against Houston is risky business as they didnt score that next drive. if they get the ball in our territory they very well might (probably a FG). the 62 yarder against Houston is a TD if it misses cause they settled for a FG after a long drive. KC i have another 67 yarder as ball was at midfield. Considering they had to punt on the subsequent drive I wouldnt give them the short field either. Would love to have an automatic kicker but its way more complicated than you make it out to be (I dont consider anything <90% automatic lol).

So you have to consider points greater than what we have, which is Bass. Hes left a total of 13 points on the field this year (little known fact, if he hits his next 2 FGs its his best kicking % of his career). Please let me know if theres any situation you think McD would have kicked instead of punted (cause that would add to the total). So thats 1 point per game that bass has left on the field versus a perfect kicker. I think Ray Davis's 428 yards have resulted in 13 points (see the Jets game) over replacement, so I def think a 4th round pick at a position offers greater return. You can start convincing me maybe in the 5th, but really the 6th. And again this is against a perfect kicker.

Well the motion is not gonna stop. It’s been helping Josh ID the coverage. The Josh run is also the same play that fooled the dolphins completely on critical 4th down. It’s an awesome play call against man (pretty much unstoppable). But they played zone and it ain’t good at that. However, the coaching point is to take off if the trick Josh and come out in zone. Why? Cause when Josh threatens the line of scrimmage a coverage player has to leave their responsibility and there’s and an easyish toss. So to me it’s a well designed play against man and has a well coached point that Josh executed as super man. I’m not sure what you want from any OC if the DC knows what’s coming (why game script matters). Also of note Josh gets two play calls in the huddle. He’s puts us in one of them. If he had IDed zone he would’ve switched the call. Brady seems to have ok play design but it is a bit more simple. That’s different than Dorsey’s plays that had an answer for everything but were complicated. Brady will make the simple work (not a TD but successful) by doing super slight things like changing the width of the formation. Keeping the plays simple lets players execute better while doing the slight adjustments to make plays pretty much always successful. He could probably scheme things up a bit better but the offense you’re asking for is essentially Dorsey’s. I’ll take Brady’s all day.

So you want more trick plays? I hated that one call and am good with 30 shades (wrinkles) of vanilla. It’s doing pretty good. And it’s not just variations. It’s coaching points to beat the way the defense is playing. Those are wrinkles to me. Trick plays are something else. I think he could do a bit better scripting plays early and taking advantage of known defensive tendencies. But dude is able to make his gameplan work later in the game by making super minor adjustments.

What are you talking about? There plenty of examples of Brady wrinkles. Why do you think we’re so good in the 3rd quarter? Brady runs the same plays from slightly different alignments cause he knows what the defense will be. This creates the rubs and leverage that spring so many plays. Be angry at his scripted plays but not at his ability to throw a wrinkle sheesh.

Should be noted how much Brady is running 5 man protections too. Hes putting everyone he can into a route which really stresses the OL, but they have responded really well by figuring out the creeper and simulated pressures that were getting free runners on Josh. Now Josh has time and 5 players running routes without chips on many obvious passing downs. Just tremendous.

Despite stacking my team with Bills the last few years my fantasy football team is inversely correlated with Bills wins almost exactly (got a win week 3 otherwise exact opposite). I will continue blowing it for yall

But it doesn’t have to be. We can definitely measure its position. We decide not to. There are other objective things we make subjective. Like delay of game (would’ve hurt us) and ineligible man down field (would’ve helped us). Objective things should be reviewable and would stop teams from pushing the edge.