YattaOkasan

Agree and the sunday night production is better. The decision to focus on Gipson when it was 3rd down in the 4th quarter and he wasnt on the field was weird. "now lets talk about how Rodgers wants to use this one guy more who is not even on the field." Just want to force a narrative. It wasnt something to be talked about on this day sorry. Agree aikman was talking about how amazing rodgers was and everything josh did was cause of someone/thing else.

Players routinely get intentional grounding while being hit and throwing. I think youre trying to say that if youre arm gets hit then you should get some grace cause obviously that complicates getting it to an intended receiver (I agree). Where I think this should have been intentional grounding, if not a fumble, is his arm was not hit until the very end. If thats truly his release point, which they are saying cause its a pass, then he wasnt throwing to a player. there is probably language in the rule about contact affecting the throw but Josh has def gotten the short end of that stick many a time. Also would expect contact affecting the play to sorta launch the ball up if he was gonna throw. Sorta weird for getting hit back on the top of your body to cause you to spike it (legs sure but chest would push you back and up) so again either fumble cause wasnt throwing or int grounding cause he was trying to throw it to noone to save a sack.

Aikman literally called Rodgers int last night essentially a punt. so it def is talked about. agree punt is more net yards but its def not a new thing. If we were to try and prove how important Allens picks/TOs are then I think we should look at their EPA? If hes truly making arm punts then his EPA shouldnt be so bad. I suspect itll be pretty mid cause he had a bit of a rash of RZ TOs (after going clean for so long) and TOs near our EZ, but he does have a few tolerable ones that werent really in Bass's FG range (so no points off the board) and didnt give the ball to the opponent that close to the EZ. Would be an interesting stat. This link sorta has some info on the topic. Josh has -300 EPA, Pat -237, Burrow -230, Carr -277. Only Pat has better EPA (-4.3 versus -4.0) per turnover (burrow is super costly when he errs, though he doesnt do it as much). So yes TOs correlate with winning and Josh has cost us a lot of points cause of them over the past 4 years. Also yes Josh's TOs are not as bad as most players (would want more data). https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/how-significant-is-josh-allens-turnover-problem-digging-into-the-stats-of-bills-star-quarterback/ https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-turnovers-qb-last-4-years

he did add that context as he expanded upon the thought, but the first half bills were not gonna be denied on offense. NYJ did have more explosive plays on offense than most of the year. but converting a hail mary and still being down didnt scream huge offensive output to me. You can see it the receptions too. Jets have 4 pass catchers all game. Bills offense was having everyone eat against a good defense (7 pass catchers, i think all but coleman caught one in first half).

my favorite was aikman coming out of half saying both offenses playing great, and i was like yeah i guess jets are ok but 3 TDs in 4 drives is better than 2 TD in 5 drives with one being a hail mary. but then aikman doubles down and says "especially the Jets." thought that was indicative of how he handled commentary (including the QBs).

Also its reasonable to then not ding him for his "high" int numbers previous years. he has historically had a high conversion of int worthy plays to int (and also just wacky plays). This year its obviously low but last year they were catching almost everything that turnover worthy (whereas other QBs got a way with a lot)

He was so amped on that play. Sorta shocked they didnt give him a taunting penalty. then again i think they were mesmerized by the magic

The pick is pretty high but im surprised he isnt discussed more. I would be very happy to trade a 4th for him. His cap number this year is fine and 13 mil next year isnt unreasonable either. And he signed his extension under the previous coaching staff.

Couple reasons why i expect it to work. First he handled the dolphins receivers fine enough that I think we can he be deep middle. I really only fear him against one of their WR which brings me to. Second the ravens are not driving the ball down field so I don’t expect him to be tested. If they choose to try and push the ball I expect it to go poorly considering their OL issues (this is why they are not pushing the ball deep) going against the best DL they have seen.

Game 1 it was contain rush against Murray. Not sure how anyone can say he wasn’t a force in that Miami game. He set up the cook team by getting a TFL and sack on 3rd /4th down. Cook scampers to really put them in a hole next play. Last game the tackles were the weakness of the OL so they attacked outside. this game though has got me juicing for ed. Interior of that ravens line has some issues (though I like linderbaum but he’s got an injury) and penetration has been how McD has lowed Henry down in the past. I expect ed to have a great game. also expect us to drop a safety down and play more cover 3 this week. Let benford Douglas and a safety take care of the deep and create havoc in the middle and underneath by disguising where the zones are. Offensively it’s an interesting matchup cause their iOL is so good. Think we’ll need to stretch them wide if we want to run the ball. But realistically we probably play 11 more than we have to date and attack the middle of their coverage.

Lol the last game was very top of mind going into the Jags game cause it the whole situation was eerily similar (losing 2 straight away from home in frustrating fashion before an early season MNF game).

Agree Spector at SAM with Bernard at Mike is the best way for us to run 3 LB. I agree big ask for those two. I would just stick with Lewis who is playing well and probably will continue to work so he can actually get a contract after this year (all the backups doing money signs after making any plays makes me chuckle)

His RAS was also a bit low so I think teams didnt want to pay top money to someone playing above their testing. And as you said he decided to stay with Kromer who was helping him overperform. Crazy we have him for 3 mil cap hit next year.

This team has so much trust from me on player development right now that I dont even care. I just assume hell get it sorted if it didnt look good. Just insane how they have been able to grow so many players that when we need them its hardly a drop off.

RAS says both our backups are bigger than the starters. So as far as size only we should be ok. However, I do worry about their processing. Thankfully the thing they do best (though Dorian has continue to take a step in coverage) is come down hill against the run. Derrick Henry I feel fine against. We have answered that question before and it feels like penetration from the DL is critical (as you mention) to slow him down so the rest of the team can get him down. As for the slowest set of safeties they managed to limit the leagues fastest set of skill players in miami just fine. I will acknowledge this is a slightly different problem because baltimore will happily stay with the run but it wont be "speed" that gets us. I worry more about processing from the second level when its play action. That said we sorta played a very similar offense (but with better outside weapons) week 1. Conners and that run game is very efficient and Kyler is probably the closest to Lamar's skill set. I think they are too good to be stopped but I think we have played a very similar offense. If you scrap nickel, it has to be morrow right? Still need to cover either or andrews or likely in the middle. I think we stay with Lewis.

I told my wife that Jax didnt earn the right to be hurdled on that play. Don't look at the PFF grades for the opener where they had Kyler (75.6) with a higher grade than Josh (75.1). https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2024/9/11/24241720/cardinals-week-1-pff-grades-and-observations#:~:text=QB%3A,Kyler Murray —- 75.6 https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-why-your-nfl-team-won-lost-week-1-2024-nfl-season#:~:text=Buffalo Bills 34%2C Arizona Cardinals,a 75.1 PFF overall grade.

Brown has been great taking a bigger leap than ed oliver did when he got his contract last year. But I want to focus on Dawkins. Dude is playing just as awesome and is doing it very uniquely. He wasnt crowding the line like other weeks (asking the ref if he was too far forward on a passing play) but he still had the huge splits. He trusts his atheletcism and his technique. He obviously wouldnt be lining up that way without Kromer and Brady's blessing. cool that hes been going at it different than anyone else I can remember.

I think duo with lots of double teams and make their corners tackle. Particularly if they are following the receiver in man they will have realize he’s blocking then make the run fit. Lot to process for the Cb. It’s also more of an outsider hitter so we get to pummel their good DEs.

Love the defensive strategy of keep everything in front and tackle in the back 7 and let the D line eat. If Josh gets a lead you have to consider sitting back there with Groot, Von, Epenesa, and Ed coming in that pass rush package. Thats gonna be a problem for teams.

I dont think we see less Dime. Plan was to have Lewis play dime on passing downs against cards and they just had to move everyone up a peg when taron went down. Dorian has been getting better but he (and Baylon to a lesser extent) are weaker in coverage. Before the Cards game I was trying to figure out who the dime backer would be. I assumed safety like last year but Lewis makes a lot of sense given his ability to play nickel and safety. So in all, Dime is here to stay.

Anderson was rough too. Saw him whiff in the Jumbo set at least once. Im hoping Kromer is just tinkering with Torrence and he takes a small step back while he tries to incorporate the new approaches. My reason for optimism is he seems to be making attention mistakes (false start, not realizing cook stepped up to the A gap for pass pro) but is still really engaged with the team. The conditioning is tough too cause its always gonna be something to watch. He started playing football to keep his weight down. So it can be a struggle so not sure if this normal or a concern basically.

I dont know that hes a great restructure candidate. I think thats the cost they pay to have flexibility in the contract. His salary isnt greater than 10 mil until 2027. With a cap hit of 19 mil itll be interesting cause both cutting him and restructure could be on the table.

I think his clutchness is underappreciated though. He has left the field with a lead so many times and not gotten the credit cause the defense let them down. These are all leaving the field in the last or second to last possession with a lead (most were within the last 2 minutes. CLE 2019 ARI 2020 KC 2021 NE 2023 DEN 2023 PHI 2023 (TWICE!!!) Theres also very close ones like HOU 2019, TEN 2021, MIN 2022, KC 2023 which dont fit the criteria above we either tied the game or just weirdness happened (sometimes josh or kicking). Considering he only has 30 loss in total its crazy to think he should have 10 more wins! Thats in addition to his 13 4th quarter comebacks and 19 Game Winning Drives. 2 comebacks and 3 game winning drives per year not count the 10 i listed here.

I think you have a certain amount of time to win the pass rush (ESPN uses 2.5 seconds). Since Browns pass blocking held up longer than that its not a pass rush win. On the flip side Torrence would get dinged for allowing the rusher in super quick on the 3rd and long that went to Cook even though Josh escaped.

Agree its fair. But the option bonus hits next year. So thats 16 mill more. Then 7.1 mil more in 2026 if hes on the roster (assuming early in the league year, prior to the draft). Thats why people are putting the 45 mil number out there. Cause there are very likely to be earned money that is guaranteed once the contract gets to that point. I agree its a fair deal. The cap hit is pretty manageable through 2026 (that year gets a bit high at 19 mil), and if they want to get out after that year then it saves 7 mil. The downside of this contract seems to be that we cant restructure for a few years so we will be pretty stuck with that 2026 cap number.