YattaOkasan

Coleman I think be close to the 1st round average and so should comfortably be over the 2nd round average (I think he has 750 yards plus). I think Bishop starts pretty quickly if not out of the gate. I think he beats this projection as he gets a few sacks from playing close to the line so much. I don't think McD has held back 7 rookies out if he thinks they can play (Benford, White, Edmunds, Taron). Milano and Levi are the only rookies I can think he "held" back and both were super sleepers (Elam is the only other rookie starter, but that was more of an injury need iirc). Carter is tough to beat 0.2 splash per game but probably can beat 0.1 (average without 2023) cause he seems to have a knack for swatting passes (did this metric include TFL @appoo?) Davis will fall short of 500 yards so I think will be below this metric, but would exceed the TD metric if you calculated. I don't think hell get touches that set up for a lot of yards. Also I think Ty Johnson will start as the primary back up to cook so Davis may suffer from only have situational use early.

4th in the league in sacks! You may not like what we have done but please couch your takes in reality. And if you say “but that wasn’t from the edge” you’re just arguing against yourself cause that shows we don’t need edge. I would like more confidence in the room too but wow this was a silly take.

Even 265 is pretty big nowadays for edge. Average weight for that position is coming down

Meh I think it’s foolish too pursue. Practice rules make it hard for him to do both long snapper and backup center. Same reason back up QBs don’t hold much now. LS, P, K just go to another field and rep it a million times. I get the desire but this ain’t madden.

No. Big concerns at the top (as mentioned above), but better at the bottom yes. No clue how that translates to production cause Diggs was part of the reason why the bottom had opportunity.

I have it as Coleman > Davis (currently) Samuel << Diggs Hollins > Sherfield (not sure why you say equal when Hollins has produced as receiver) Shakir > Harty (that replacement happened last year) stacking the box may not work with a good screen game that Shakir, Coleman, and Samuel have all demonstrated and ability towards. I also think teams have enough respect for Allen and his yolo style that they will not stack the box too much.

I share your concern about the top end of our WR room, but thought WAS had a good WR corp last year with McLaurin, Samuel, Dotson (their QB play was so bad) and he was WR2 there. He was there most successful WR and had the best catch %.

Why would take taron Johnson off the field on obvious passing downs?

Considering he didn’t get more than 6 targets in any game having a few 100 yard games is pretty good. Would also note he had a big clutch factor with big time TDs. If DCs wanna throw more coverage his way then yes they will do well against him while losing against other WRs. I think it’s gonna be hard to game plan against us cause we have pretty good man separators in Kincaid Samuel shakir that can all also work against zone. I think 800 yards on 50% more targets. So slightly less efficient but still very efficient. Do you think it’ll be less than that? Expanding on this I think 2020 was Josh’s best year and while we had the emergence of diggs we also spread the ball around a lot. I think we tied the record for number of players with a receiving TD. I’m very excited if that can be replicated Would add that Coleman in the screen game, which Brady called twice as often as Dorsey, is gonna be a big piece. Dude can block and get up field quick.

Known but good info. Where is the SoS in the article?

Great exercise, and is tricky. Some of these things are tough cause they are intertwined or may not the responsibility of the current GM. For example is the Marcel Dareus dead cap a negative on Beane when it was Whaley that signed him (this is less of a problem for Beane cause of the sample size but could be an issue for other GMs that youre comparing Beane too). Pro Bowls are a bit tricky cause they are so perception based. Starts also gets weird cause a GM in a rebuild will get a boost by starting late draft picks that arent really good. I do really like the idea of % non-rookies that see the end of their contract (if signed by current GM). Rather than starts per draft pick you could also do rookies that see end of contract (though you may need to normalize by round somehow). I think team success is pretty good metric. Ultimately, the job is a resource allocation position and you are on the right path in thinking about resources (draft and FA), but the metrics are a bit tricky. I really like this discussion youve started.

Appreciate that number as I was looking for it. That wouldve made him 12th highest paid (AAV) at the position. Therein lies much of the problem. You have to be top 10 at your position for the 5th year to be worth. That seems to be for most positions with QB, Edge, and WR being the only spots you can really get much of a discount. Combined with the hard cap number and it has lost a lot of its appeal.

What does the 5th year option for him cost? Probably a ton for an above average RB.

I think thats the interesting part to this pick. Multiple peeps have said his tape lining up in the box is better (and he lined up there more), but his testing says hes athletic enough to be single high. My question is do you think McD, Babich, and Danna can teach that? Feels like yes and if so then wow this is gonna be a heck of a chess piece. I agree until he learns we live with Edwards doing an ok job when were wanna go single high. Lastly I think of this as a Kelce eraser in some ways. Would love to have that

Lol which games in the playoffs don't matter? Silly take. The game in the playoffs that you lose is always the one that matters the most.

I think the basketball background has to help with body positioning and high pointing through traffic. Wasn’t who I wanted but excited to see what he can do

Im with @TheyCallMeAndy and C. So Ill say Zach Frazier Screams McD (4x wrestling state champ, Dad played in college). iOL could easily be the play if you wanna keep McGovern at LG (though Collins signing makes me skeptical).

Yes it maybe a back up role but back up 3 tech will get a lot of snaps. They will likely play ~50% of the snaps. Do we have another position where a player @ 60 could get that many snaps (let alone impactful snaps)? Safety, WR, iOL are the only ones I can think of. Safety and iOL they would have to beat a vet for the job which shouldnt be an expectation, and I would argue 70% of snaps at WR is less impactful than 50% snaps at DT because every DT snap matters and not every WR snap matters. In terms of Ed's contract, I like the idea of him and a rookie ending their contracts at similar times so we can presumably have his replacement ready to go when his extension is at an end. I dont think that would be a tough pill to stomach. I would be pumped for obvious passing downs to have Rousseau, Fiske, Ed, AJ. Thats a young group that I think could get after it (especially up the middle).

lol it was the fact that we only have 2 smaller in stature RBs in the room after FA that gave the interest away to me. Theyll def take one, but I dont think they are looking for a workhorse. Should be able to find a back that can convert short yardage and provide pass blocking. Everything else is gravy to me. Do you think we should wait until next year for that? Feel like there are a lot of those players available every year.

I agree and would add Baker to the list. Raw for sure but seems to get separation at the catch point because of his physicality.

Would be so happy with legette at 28. Such a good fit for what we need. Love how variable his assessment is

Don't want us spending a pick even. Wow. you know we have 10 picks right? You think there are 10 more pressing needs than a room that ONLY has 2 players in it (both with similar skill sets). Theres snaps to be had at this position. I expect a pick, UDFA, and probably a FA signing as well. Need bodies.

I dont think so. Draft charts I'm looking at have #17 as 950 and our #28 as 660. Our highest fourth this year #128 is worth 44. Rule of thumb is subtract around for future picks so the best next years second could be valued at is 265. Thats just enough to get it done but pick 91 (what wouldve been our third) is only worth 135 which would be well short of whats needed. I suspect Jax would value our 2nd more like pick 91 though maybe vikings 2nd we have now could get it done. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=buf

Would you be ok with him round 4? I think no. I would be happy with him there but round 3 does feel a bit much.

Yeah realized that a bit late. Point still stands about why not include the 4th round for this discussion. I think its more likely we pick one in the 4th than 6th or 7th.