mjt328

We badly needed help on the D-Line this offseason, and Trent Murphy has been a solid rotational DE when healthy. Part of the reason that he's playing less is because the "younger and healthier" Shaq Lawson is developing into one of our better players. Not because he is playing bad. Overall his cap hit (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/trent-murphy-14456/) the next two years is pretty easy to manage ($6.8 and 7.2 million). Especially considering the large amount of cap space we have available. And if the Bills decide to move on, the dead cap is only $3.5 and $1.7 million in 2019-2020 - not the large number that you stated in the original post. I'm also curious about your comment of Beane/McDermott "losing the locker room" this season, which is a total joke with absolutely no basis. This team was a finger-tip catch away from winning 3 games in a row.

People are overly critical of Josh Allen because: 1. Many people didn't like him as a prospect, hated the pick and were very vocal about it. If he succeeds, they will be wrong. Which is very tough for some people to admit. 2. Almost two decades of failure have much of the fanbase skeptical and pessimistic about anything involving this franchise. They are afraid to let themselves get excited that he might be good, out of fear of being disappointed.

I agree that if Allen doesn't become a good passer, then teams will be able to stop him with a similar defense as what you said above. Keep him in the pocket and force him to make plays with his arm. But I think Allen's critics (and there are many on this board) are just looking at his crazy rushing numbers, and are ignoring the improvements we are seeing in his passing. For anyone paying attention, the growth is pretty obvious to see. He's making better reads, and doing it quicker than what he was doing back in September/October. When he was drafted, I considered him WAY behind Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen in terms of throwing mechanics, accuracy and pocket presence. He was basically a raw lump of clay with tons of athletic potential. Seven months later, and I think he's already pretty much caught-up to those guys. Obviously Allen has a long-ways to go. But we are seeing progression, which isn't something that could ever be said about our last 1st Round QBs. The EJ Manuel we saw in Week 1-2 of his 2013 rookie season was probably the best he ever played in the NFL. It took JP Losman until the middle of his third season before he finally showed a glimpse of being adequate, but was all downhill from that point.

I watched almost every game from Josh Allen's senior year, and his poor mechanics constantly forced him into making inaccurate throws. That is the main reason I was concerned about the Bills drafting him, and greatly preferred taking the safer pick in Josh Rosen. However in the 7-8 games Allen has appeared in as a rookie, I've noticed a pretty significant improvement in this area. Not just from his senior year in college, but also a big improvement between the first month of the season and what we have seen over the last two games. He's still missing a few more throws than what I would like. But the bad throws are coming with less frequency and the good throws are happening more often. I agree that completion percentage is not the best way of determining a player's accuracy. You have to consider the distance of the pass, how much of a window the QB is throwing into, what kind of route the receiver is running, pressure coming from the defense, etc., etc. Many "horrible misses" are a actually product of miscommunication or bad timing (basically expecting the receiver to be in a different place) than a sign of poor accuracy. It's also important to consider the reason behind an inaccurate pass. Most players miss throws because of poor mechanics (footwork and body positioning). A guy like Ryan Fitzpatrick always struggled with accuracy downfield, because he always had to sacrifice his mechanics to make-up for his mediocre arm strength. He could rifle a nice 5-10 yard slant. But he could never get consistent on 25-30 yards throws. In contrast, EJ Manuel had the arm strength. But by the time he reached the NFL, his bad habits/horrible mechanics were already set in stone. We know Allen has the physical ability to complete every pass. So it's encouraging to see that he CAN be molded and improve his mechanics. Hopefully he just keeps getting better and better, and doesn't hit a wall.

How many QBs in the NFL could run around the pocket that much, escaping defenders left and right... then make a perfect strike from 40+ yards out? If Charles Clay doesn't trip over his own feet, he could have made that catch without diving.

Every QB misses throws. I'm literally sitting here watching Red Zone, and in the Chiefs-Raiders game Patrick Mahomes just overthrew Tyreek HIll on back-to-back passes. They flipped it over to Patriots-Vikings and Tom Brady immediately under-threw his receiver by about 5 yards (still caught). Drew Brees is probably the most accurate QB I've ever seen, and he was missing lots of throws high on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers pretty much lost the Packers their game a week ago by overthrowing Adams in the endzone. Honestly, I haven't seen a regular pattern of bad accuracy from Josh Allen this year. He seems to have 1-2 throws each week where misses an easy throw (usually because he doesn't set his feet). But it's not a case where he just consistently struggles to get the ball on his receiver. Many of his misses are way downfield where accuracy is spotty for everyone, or cases of miscommunication (see the Zay Jones play) with his receivers. On the flip-side, you can see a handful of times each week that he can make perfect strikes 25-30 yards downfield and hit his guys in stride. Now... EJ Manuel struggled with bad accuracy. He almost NEVER hit receivers in stride. He always forced them to stop in mid-route or stretch-out to make catches. It wasn't a case where he sometimes failed in his mechanics. It was a situation where he just didn't know how to throw an accurate football to a moving target.

You can teach footwork and body mechanics, which greatly improve accuracy. Sure, it's not easy to teach a guy in his early-20s to change these things after coming into the NFL. But it's not completely unheard of. I was not a fan of Allen in college, and would have preferred drafting Josh Rosen. But then again, I'm the type that prefers the safer pick, rather than the boom/bust. I'm also not an NFL scout. It's starting to become pretty apparent what Beane/McDermott saw in Allen. And you can start to see what his physical talent can do to a defense. Not every QB is about standing in the pocket and dissecting coverage. Ben Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl rings and will be a Hall of Famer due to his ability to escape pressure and keep plays alive. Allen absolutely needs to improve as a passer, but he doesn't need to become Drew Brees or Tom Brady in the accuracy department. That will never be his game. With that said... the gradual improvements in Allen's passing are very apparent to anyone who as paying attention.

The running is always going to be part of his game. Which is fine. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are both stars who have won Super Bowls, and rely heavily on their legs/mobility. The key for Josh Allen will be knowing WHEN to take off, and WHEN to scramble around the pocket to evade pressure, but still keep the passing play alive. Quarterbacks who run prematurely (and fail to develop in-pocket skills) are the ones that eventually struggle. See Robert Griffin III, Vince Young, etc. My point was that Allen is absolutely showing progress in this area. He's got a ways to go. But we are seeing improvement.

The miss to Zay Jones was miscommunication. Not poor accuracy. After the play, he motioned to Jones that he expected him to stop, instead of continuing in his route. That is why the pass was behind him. Things like this can be expected with a rookie with 7 starts under his belt, throwing to a second year receiver. Not sure where else he had "awful" accuracy today.

This was a heartbreaking loss. Especially against a division rival. But we all need to keep in mind, this season was all about developing Josh Allen. And in my opinion, the last two weeks have been extremely encouraging from that perspective. Yes. He is still doing the majority of damage with his legs. The accuracy and communication with his receivers is still a work in progress. But the strides and improvements in his passing have been very apparent, especially since coming back from injury. Compare what we were seeing during the first month of the season, versus what we are seeing now. It's clear that Allen is starting to scan the field quicker, and finding open receivers down the field. That hesitation in the pocket has decreased by a split-second or two. The kind of throws that were coming only 1-2 times per game, are now coming 5-6 times per game. He's also learning how to navigate his way out of the pass rush and get back into throwing position, where earlier in the season he was always drifting backwards and scrambling prematurely. I think fans are also starting to understand why the Bills front office (along with many other teams) saw Allen as a Top-10 prospect. He's got the strength of Ben Roethlisberger when avoiding sacks, combined with the speed of the NFL's best scrambling quarterbacks, along with one of the strongest arms in the league. If he can even become above-average as a passer (and we put a decent offense around him), teams are going to have a really tough time defending him.

There was nothing blatantly missed by the refs today. Sometimes there are calls that can be considered the "gray area" - and unfortunately we had a bunch of those in the last couple drives of the game. - The Milano pass interference was ticky-tacky. But he DID use his body to impede the receiver's progress, before he turned to defend the ball. - The Phillips personal foul was ticky-tacky. But he DID forcefully throw the runner's foot to the ground, while mouthing off at the Dolphins sideline. - On the sack, he didn't grab Allen's facemask or horse-collar him. His neck and helmet got twisted, but it really wasn't due to an illegal grab by the defender.

All this "we should have hired an offensive coach" is nonsense. Funny how Frank Reich's offensive knowledge/prowess made no difference when their Quarterback was shaking off the rust. Once Andrew Luck started playing like a Top 5 quarterback again, suddenly the offense became a powerhouse. Offensive success ALWAYS begins with the QB. Everything stems off from that. Sean McDermott's offense has featured an extremely raw rookie (Allen), a 35-year-old who had no real intention of playing when he signed (Anderson), a journeyman who hadn't taken a snap in 2 seasons (Barkley) and probably the worst starting quarterback of the modern football era (Peterman). Not to mention the terrible offensive line, and bottom-tier receiving talent. There isn't an offensive genius in the NFL who could have "schemed" this group into success this year. The future of this franchise depends on Josh Allen's development. If he works out, it won't matter what side of the ball McDermott specializes in.

Very tough question. I actually think it was easier to separate them back in April. Prior to the draft, I liked them in the following order: 1. Sam Darnold 2. Josh Rosen 3. Baker Mayfield 4. Josh Allen Darnold and Rosen have done about what I expected as rookies. But Mayfield and Allen have done much better than I expected. All four guys have flashed. All four guys have struggled. It's way too early to tell.

Smart teams don't spend $17 million per year on a Running Back. Yes, we have lots of cap space. But you don't exchange one bad/overpriced contract for another.

The Bills are basically in the same position the Jaguars were 4 years ago. 2014 was their second season under Head Coach Gas Bradley. They just drafted a rookie QB (Blake Bortles) at #3 overall. Instead of being big spenders in Free Agency, the offseason was about trading away veterans for draft picks and clearing cap space. Sound familiar? Over the last 3-4 seasons, the Jaguars have done a pretty good job of building up their defense. But they have done a below-average job at building up the offense, and Bortles has been one of the most inconsistent QBs in the NFL (he's basically a younger version of Ryan Fitzpatrick). They had a decent run in 2017 (10-6 record and advancing to the AFC Championship). But it wasn't sustainable. Overall, their rebuild has failed, and you can pretty much count on them starting the process over again next year. Don't get me wrong. There was nothing wrong with Jacksonville's overall strategy. They just didn't do a good enough job of picking players. And their choice for franchise QB is a bust. So which team would I rather be right now? Only a fool would say Jacksonville. Buffalo has a 1-2 year head-start. The Bills are an unknown. Sure, their rebuild could go down the same road as the Jags. But it could go the same direction as the Rams. The Jaguars are going to be starting from scratch in 2019, and will be forced to dismantle most of the defense before they are in a place to compete again.

Most are calling this draft class historic - in terms of defensive line talent. It's very strong at the top, and deep all the way through the first 2 days. That doesn't mean the cupboard is totally bare on the offensive side. There are a handful of offensive linemen slated as mid-1st Round talents, quite a few wide receivers with late-1st/early 2nd Round grades, and many also believe this would be a good year to take a tight end early. In my opinion, the key for the Bills will be adequately filling holes in Free Agency, so they aren't stuck reaching for a position instead of player. If they end up picking too high, it may be very difficult to pass on one of these generational D-Line talents. Especially with Jerry Hughes getting older, and Kyle Williams probably retiring at the end of the season. Which of course could leave them short on picks to address all the holes on offense. Right now, they need help at WR, TE, OT, C and OG. That's five spots, assuming Zay Jones and Wyatt Teller play good enough to warrant another year in the starting lineup.

Even if you think those teams are better, that still puts the Bills in the Top 6-7. I've already stated why I believe Buffalo's PPG is misleading. I don't have the time to break down each of these teams and know for sure. But my personal observation is that Buffalo has a ridiculously high amount of points scored from either turnovers returned as touchdowns or field goals where the opponent already started in scoring position. They also seem to have a very high number of drives starting on the wrong side of the 50, and I wouldn't be surprised if time of possession were very lopsided. But my biggest point to consider... Buffalo's two worst defensive performances came in Weeks 1 and 2. I think it's fair to say that Buffalo's defensive stats are being weighted down heavily by those two games. And it's fair to say that many of the weak spots people attacked in the first 6 quarters of the season, have been locked down for the most part since halftime against the Chargers. Compare that to teams like Jacksonville and Baltimore, who have been going the opposite direction over the last month.

It's not inevitable. But it does happen. Even the best defenses let up touchdowns. Take a look at the other top defenses in the NFL right now. Everyone has bad drives and even bad games. All things considered, I would have a very hard time coming up with 5 defenses currently better than Buffalo.

I don't like to rely purely on statistics, because they can be very misleading. Saying opposing offenses may have "laid off the gas" with big leads against us is a legitimate point. Just like defenses with big leads often allow garbage-time points and yards. At the same time, a stat like Points Per Game doesn't account for the multiple turnovers returned for scores and short-fields. From my eyes (and I do watch other teams around the league), I think it's safe to say the Bills are currently Top 5 in the NFL. It's important to look at what the team is NOW and not just what it was back in the first quarter of Week 1. They started the season playing very poorly (Baltimore and San Diego). But adjustments were made around halftime on Week 2, and things really started clicking at that point. We've also seen massive improvements from Tremaine Edmunds and from our #2 corner spot. Both were getting picked on early, and have since held their own. In my opinion, the only real hiccup since halftime of the Chargers game was against the Colts. I'm not holding the blowout by the Bears against them. They had a shutout in the 1st Quarter. The first TD they allowed was on a short field (37 Yard Line). Then the Bears got a Fumble Return TD, an Interception Return TD and another short field (23 Yard Line). The Defense had no reason to play hard, knowing we had no chance of coming back.

Just because there were comparisons between Carson Wentz and Josh Allen, does not mean they were equally prepared to enter the NFL. And just because Allen hasn't progressed as quickly during his rookie season, does not mean he can't eventually be as good or better than Wentz. The question coaches need to ask, is whether Allen will progress quicker/better by playing or by observing. This was a debate we had when Allen was first drafted. This was a debate we had during training camp and the preseason. This was a debate we had when Allen was inserted into the lineup in Week 2. Everybody has their own opinion on the matter, but there is honestly no way to determine which way is correct. Matt Barkley probably gives us a better chance to win our next game. But at 3-7, we need to be looking beyond our next game. We need to be looking at what is the best method for developing Allen into a franchise quarterback, so that he can be ready to carry our team in 2019 and beyond.

Football players are just like the rest of us. What prompts the regular/everyday working person to change jobs? What do they consider important in an employer? I think most of us would admit that MONEY is the most important factor MOST of the time. No matter how much we may enjoy working somewhere, if a competitor offers a significant pay raise - then we would absolutely jump for the bigger salary. But at the same time, some people may not like picking up their home and moving. They may be willing to take less money from their current employer, so they can enjoy the stability of staying in one place. They may want to live close to family or friends, or not want to pull their kids out of their school district. Some may put emphasis on the work environment or what their boss is like. For football players, this would be choosing a GM or coach they have familiarity with (why the Bills have attracted so many from Carolina). Veterans may prefer a certain offensive or defensive scheme, which takes advantage of their skill set. And for every person that wants to live in warm weather, surrounded by exciting nightlife - there is another person who hates hot summers and enjoys the peace and quiet.

Benjamin has continued to lose playing time as the year progresses. I'm pretty sure his effort (and lack of production) have indeed gone noticed.

Dedicated film-watchers have been telling us for several weeks that Zay Jones was getting consistent separation. You just can't tell when the QB isn't getting the ball to him. Robert Foster was burning people back in the preseason. But he was having serious problems tracking the ball in the air, which is why he ended up on the practice squad for the first half of the season. Kelvin Benjamin has never been able to get separation. His value has always been in using size to win jump-balls. For some reason, it just seems like he can't come down with those contested passes anymore. Which pretty much makes him worthless.

For some people, their religious faith comes across as a big part of their personality. Lots of NFL players may be Christians, but not everyone talks about it openly or wears it on their sleeve. Drew Brees (for example) is a devout Christian. But it's not something he is instantly recognized for publicly - at least compared to someone like Tim Tebow or Reggie White. I get the impression that Nathan Peterman's faith is something that also stands-out strongly whenever people get to know him. Similar to how Kyle Williams is recognized for his hard-work and leadership, or Ryan Fitzpatrick was recognized for his fun/goofball personality. In terms of "bias" towards Christianity, I find it odd how much Sean McDermott gets criticized for seeking out high-character players. It's something that literally 90% of coaches, general managers and scouts around the NFL cite as important factors in evaluating prospects. Our staff has never remotely hinted that a person needed to be a Christian to be on this roster, or that anyone with off-field issues is not welcome. They stuck by LeSean McCoy this offseason. They stuck by Zay Jones this offseason. And they tried bringing back Ritchie Incognito.

It's all about the Quarterback. Over the course of this season, some fans have convinced themselves that Brandon Bean/Sean McDermott somehow assembled the worst overall offensive team in the history of the NFL, and literally nobody on that side of the ball was worthy of playing in the pros. But yesterday, we saw that with "decent" QB play, the rest of the offense CAN move the ball, CAN score points and CAN look generally competent. Don't get me wrong. The Jets are really bad. And that was a big factor. But the most important thing to remember about this season is that: 1. Nathan Peterman has played HISTORICALLY bad. 2. Derek Anderson wasn't good 10 years ago, and only signed up to be a mentor. He had no intention of playing. 3. Josh Allen is an extremely raw rookie, who needs time to grasp the game. I've been arguing with people who think it IMPOSSIBLE for this team to be competitive by the middle/end of next season. But yesterday was a clear illustration that IF we can get Josh Allen playing on a similar level to what we got from Matt Barkley, this team can absolutely be in playoff talks for 2019.