mjt328

Defense is at least Top 5 in the NFL right now. Offense is easily the worst in the NFL right now. Special Teams is pretty bad, outside of our Field Goal Kicker. Overall, I think our record accurately reflects where the team is at. Considering the team overall, I think we are in the bottom quarter of the league.... roughly the same tier as the Jets, Browns, Colts, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals and 49ers (without Garoppolo). I don't necessarily think we are the worst team in the NFL, but it's hard to win ANY games if you can't score points.

"One of the Highest-Producing Offenses in Franchise History..." You can't be serious? This team barely cracked the Top 10 in 2016 in PPG, and it was done almost entirely through the running game. The passing game was bottom five in virtually every category. It's completely revisionist history to suggest this team had a powerhouse offense. We had a below-average QB and an rapidly aging Pro-Bowl RB. We needed to take a step backwards to move forwards. Beane traded away Sammy Watkins and Tyrod Taylor. That's it. The other big losses were retirements, which he had absolutely no control over. The only offensive player Brandon Beane even TRIED DRAFTING in the first 4 rounds was Josh Allen. The rest were on defense. They had limited resources. Only so many draft picks. Only so much cap space. Instead of spreading it equally, they focused mostly on the defense. Next year, they can work on getting the offense up to par. How did "lack of talent" result in Allen getting hurt? Are you suggesting QBs with more talent never get hit or injured? Tanking would suggest purposely losing. No, they are not doing that. The proper term would be "rebuilding." And lots of teams are still early into a rebuild the season after drafting a franchise QB. They inherited the cap problems, and it's ridiculous to think otherwise. The majority of Dead Cap money came from Marcel Dareus (traded), Eric Wood (retired), Cordy Glenn (traded) and Tyrod Taylor (traded). Those four players ALONE account for literally 70% of the Dead Cap. Throw in Aaron Williams, Vontae Davis and Ritchie Incognito (also retired), you can bump that number to 82% of the Dead Cap. - There is nothing they could have done about the retirements. - The Glenn and Taylor trades were significant in our moves to get Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds. - They preferred taking a one-year hit for Dareus, rather than letting him be a salary cap drain for the next 4 years. Yes. They could have allocated more resources to the offense. But then the defense wouldn't be as good. The offense might be slightly better... but probably not, because we are undergoing the growing pains of playing a rookie quarterback. Honestly. What free agent WRs do you think would have significantly improved this offense? Allen Robinson? Michael Crabtree? Jordy Nelson? Paul Richardson? Maybe we could have given Watkins $48 million or traded for Jarvis Landry? Take away Star Lotuleilei or Trent Murphy and give us the above -- I still think we are struggling to score points. Many All-22 reviews are suggesting that Zay Jones is playing much better (still his second year mind you) and getting open consistently. But it doesn't matter right now, because our QB just can't get him the ball. This regime hasn't dedicated a lot of resources towards the WR position. YET. And honestly, I really can't blame them. Weapons are going to be wasted until our QB develops. Kelvin Benjamin was an accomplished WR before coming here. So was Jordan Matthews. Neither guy looked like they belonged on an NFL roster after playing in Buffalo. One of the reasons the SAME TEAMS continue to be good and the SAME TEAMS continue to struggle? Continuity. The bad teams can never catch up, because they get impatient after 2-3 seasons and blow everything up. Then a new guy comes in and the cycle restarts. This was Beane's plan. He was not going to play around for 3 seasons with Tyrod Taylor or some mediocre veteran at the helm, hoping a top QB prospect somehow dropped in his lap. He wasn't going to let himself be burdened for the next 3 seasons with bloated under-performing contracts, weighing down his ability to make free agent decisions. So he purged the bad contracts for picks, then aggressively traded up to get himself a QB - knowing FULL WELL it was going to hurt this team's chances in 2018. He believed that sacrificing a season would give us the best chance at taking the next step (towards a championship). He's been here for ONE offseason!!!!!!!!!! Give him a chance to see if his plan can work!!!!!

"The Bills front office is totally incompetent. They have failed to provide any kind of offensive weapons to their rookie Quarterback, to help aid in his development." (A FEW WEEKS LATER....) "The Bills front office is totally incompetent. They haven't traded away their only remaining offensive weapons for additional draft picks."

Sean McDermott has never (and will never) answer this question, but I've always assumed he was not comfortable making the most important decision of his coaching career without his General Manager and scouting staff in place to help. The quarterback his regime ultimately drafted was going to determine the success or failure of his team for the next 3-4 years, and whether he would still have a job after that amount of time. Terry Pegula has explained that he didn't want to let Doug Whaley and his staff go before the draft, because he felt they were losing valuable time/information compiled on college prospects over the previous 9 months. And a new staff would basically have only 3 months to make that up. It was certainly an odd decision at the time. NFL teams always fire/hire GMs in January or February. I recall that some thought Pegula was doing something groundbreaking, which if successful would be copied by other franchises. But looking back with the advantage of hindsight, it was probably a big mistake. Beane had been working with the Panthers the entire year prior, and had plenty of time to compile a draft board. Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes were not "slam-dunk" prospects coming out of college. But most had them as solid 1st-Round prospects. It's unclear whether Beane would have liked either. But at this point, it's hard to imagine Josh Allen developing into the player that either of these two has already become.

There are several different aspects of the "culture" goals Sean McDermott talks about, and I think it's easy for fans to get confused. In my opinion, "Winning Culture" is just another term for confidence. Watch a team like the Patriots. Even if they find themselves down 2 touchdowns, they always believe they will (not can) come back and win it. There is no doubt. In contrast, another team may be playing well - but then someone makes a mistake, there is momentum shift and everything instantly spirals downward. Some teams have it. Others don't. And it's not something that just comes with a change in coach or a change in attitude. I think this is something that builds gradually over time, and comes with players growing to trust each other. This seems to get mixed up with McDermott's belief in getting "high character" players, and building a culture of hard work. Unlike what some Bills fans think, this isn't about filling the team with boy-scouts and born-again Christians. It's all about finding football players who are willing to put the team first. Guys like Marcel Dareus couldn't get on-board with this. Not just because of his ridiculous behavior off the field, but mostly because of his selfish attitude that put himself about his teammates. It's a delicate balance trying to determine what talent-level is worth dealing with the character concerns.

Defenses loading the box. Failing to sustain drives. Not being able to take advantage of his receiving skills.

So the common theme I keep reading is that Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott either: a) Don't want their team to be good on offense, and want to win games by low scores, OR b) Are totally clueless on how to find offensive talent. The first theory is totally ridiculous. If Beane/McDermott were not interested in the offensive side of the ball, they wouldn't have spent nearly 12 months acquiring draft capitol for the sole-purpose of trading up to get the riskiest QB in the draft, simply because he had the highest ceiling. This was not a conservative or remotely safe decision. Whether Beane/McDermott are clueless about the offensive side of the ball has yet to be determined. Yes, the offense is terrible. Maybe the worst we've seen in Buffalo since Jim Kelly retired (and that's really saying something). But I'm 100% convinced that our struggles on offense are MOSTLY related to the play of our quarterbacks. They are dragging everything down. Anybody who reviews All-22 film will readily admit that our O-Line is actually playing decent. They struggled badly the first two weeks, but have really settled in since Minnesota. Most of the sacks are because of our QB leaving the pocket or holding the ball too long. The two best blockers this season are easily Dion Dawkins and Vlad Ducasse, who were both pickups of this regime. The worst breakdowns each week are coming from the right side of the line with John Miller and Jordan Mills, both hold-overs from Doug Whaley. On the Wide Receivers, complain about Kelvin Benjamin, and how terrible of a decision it was to get him. They complain that Zay Jones is a huge bust. But how are we supposed to make a true judgment about Benjamin or Jones, when our QBs cannot find open receivers with any consistency AND then cannot get the ball to them accurately? Before Benjamin came to Buffalo, he put up 1008 and 941 yards, then was on pace for 950 yards in his third season. He wasn't setting the world on fire, but he was a good NFL starter. Since the trade, he's got a whopping 434 yards in 13 games. Is it just possible that our problem is not Benjamin, but the people throwing him the ball? With no threat passing the ball, even LeSean McCoy is having the worst season of his career. It all comes back to Quarterback. I truly believe we could trade for AJ Green and Antonio Brown in the offseason, and our passing game would still be in shambles without Josh Allen taking a significant step forward. Even if we dedicate 100% of our draft/free agent resources on upgrading that side of the ball, we need our QB to step forward - or it's all going to be pointless. It all falls on Allen's shoulders. Of course I realize that our current front office owns this QB situation. And it's fair to question whether they provided the best situation for him to develop in. But at the end of the day, we all SHOULD have expected these kind of struggles with a rookie quarterback. Especially one who was considered a big project by even his biggest supporters. Whether Allen becomes a Hall of Famer or the next Jamarcus Russell, this was the way his first season was always going to look. This was the journey we all agreed to when we advocated for a 1st Round QB. And we won't know for another year or two whether Beane/McDermott made a massive mistake, or a brilliant decision in drafting him.

Amari Cooper would have been a (more expensive) repeat of Kelvin Benjamin. All the fans screaming about upgrading the WR talent just don't get it. A receiver cannot be successful in this league without a decent Quarterback throwing him the ball. Benjamin had 1008 yards as a rookie, 941 in his second year and was on pace for 950 yards in his third. Then he got traded to Buffalo. In 13 games with us, he's got a grand-total of 434 yards. The problem is not him. It's the guy throwing the ball to him. We are not going to see this offense turn things around without Josh Allen developing.

I absolutely agree that BUSTS are way more common than success stories. I absolutely agree that we can/should question whether this coaching staff can develop a rookie Quarterback. I absolutely have tons of concerns of my own, and I would be lying if I claimed to be confident in our future success. But regardless of whether Josh Allen is going to be a Hall of Famer or the next Jamarcus Russell, what we are experiencing right now was an inevitable part of the journey. It could not be avoided. The only people who have any reason to complain, are those who argued against a rebuild and wanted to build around Tyrod Taylor. Anyone who wanted us to draft a QB in the first round should have been smart enough to know what was coming. That's why it's maddening to read the garbage constantly being posted on here.

I'm not trying to "prove" the Bills will be good. I can't tell the future any more than you can. The point I'm trying to make, is that the vast majority of rookie quarterbacks are bad, especially when it comes to running an NFL level passing game. It's a huge jump that only select few are prepared for. And when your QB is struggling, it drags down everyone and everything (receivers, linemen, running backs, coordinators) around them. Considering the small school he attended, and the issues with his mechanics/accuracy - it was clear to even Josh Allen's biggest supporters that he was way behind the curve when compared to the others in this draft class (Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen specifically). He was going to struggle and it was going to take time to mold him. We were warned about this long before the Bills were even on the clock. We were warned by the Bills front office in the press conference after they picked him. We were warned in training camp and preseason. Despite this, tons of Bills fans want to see results NOW. They want to see progress on offense NOW. They want the team to win NOW. And since it's not happening NOW, then it's clearly because Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott have no idea what they are doing and need to be fired immediately. This is why GMs like Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley were too chicken-$#!+ to go aggressively after a quarterback in the draft. It immediately put their jobs on the line. They would rather stick with the mediocre-safe option (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor) that maxes out at 9 wins and gets you an early wild card exit. Because the fans have exactly ZERO patience to stick through a rebuild. It's quite possible that Allen busts and becomes the next in line after JP Losman and EJ Manuel. But it's possible that he develops into the franchise savior we've all been waiting for.

If the Bills hired a football czar, the fans would give him until the second quarter of Preseason Week 1 before they started screaming to fire him.

1. The Bills are not trying to build a low-scoring/defensive-based team. That's why they traded away talent and used the draft capitol to pick the quarterback with the biggest ceiling. 2. Rookie quarterbacks almost always result in struggling offenses, which finish near the bottom of the league. 3. Our rookie quarterback was especially raw, and even less prepared than others in his draft class. We knew this when we drafted him. 4. The front office invested in some weapons, particularly Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones. But receivers are always going to look terrible when the quarterback is struggling.

As was stated in my previous post (I know I'm probably wasting my time here)... THE BILLS TRADED UP TO DRAFT A QUARTERBACK IN THE TOP 10, BECAUSE THEY WANT TO HAVE AN ELITE PLAYER AT THE POSITION, SO THEY CAN POSSIBLY BECOME AN OFFENSE CAPABLE OF SCORING 40 POINTS PER GAME. If the "master plan" was to build a defensive-based team and win games 10-7, I'm sure they would have been perfectly happy keeping Tyrod Taylor on the roster. Instead of using all those valuable draft picks to move up and select a quarterback, they could have used them on more defensive players. They could have gotten another pass rusher or another cornerback. I swear. Some of the people on this board are the most clueless and impatient people sports fans I've ever had the displeasure of listening to. Everything has to happen NOW, NOW, NOW. And if it's not happening NOW, then they will whine and complain that ownership hasn't fired everyone yet. It's no coincidence that Buffalo and Arizona have the two worst offenses in the NFL. Or that teams with rookie QBs have a combined record of 8-19-1 this season. It's incredibly rare for a team with a rookie quarterback to have offensive success in that first year. Last year, Deshaun Watson was the outlier. Mitchell Trubisky was the norm. If you go back to 2016, the Rams were dead-last in virtually every offensive category, and the Eagles were in the bottom-half.

"Defense doesn't matter." That statement is absolutely ridiculous. Now I definitely agree the top teams in the NFL are those with Franchise Quarterbacks. It's been that way for 50 years. Not just 20. But that's why Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott purged the roster for Draft Picks, so they could guarantee themselves a chance at one of the top QB prospects! Just because the Bills decided to (gasp) draft and sign players on the defensive side of the ball, doesn't mean they are trying to win games 10-7. They swung for the fences with their QB pick, precisely because they wanted a high-scoring offense. But it's going to take TIME!

Of course this scenario is possible. But it's also possible that our rebuild plan works. Even the most optimistic Bills fans (who are very pleased with the direction of this franchise) totally expected this kind of result for 2018. The team is exactly where most of us expected them to be near the midpoint of the season.

The defensive side of the ball is good. I would argue it's Top 5 in the NFL. Every week, I see people complaining that other Quarterbacks are throwing for 400 yards with ease and scoring 35+ points with regularity. Well in that case... there have to be defenses that are letting that happen with regularity. Unfortunately, this is the nature of how people view teams in the NFL. A 2-4 team like the Atlanta Falcons with a good offense and bad defense is considered an "underachiever" that can't take advantage of it's incredible talent. A 2-5 team like Buffalo with a good defense and bad offense is considered "talentless" and lucky every time they win.

The majority of Dead Cap money came from Marcel Dareus (traded), Eric Wood (retired), Cordy Glenn (traded) and Tyrod Taylor (traded). Those four players ALONE account for literally 70% of the Dead Cap. Throw in Aaron Williams, Vontae Davis and Ritchie Incognito (also retired), you can bump that number to 82% of the Dead Cap. - There is nothing they could have done about the retirements. - The Glenn and Taylor trades were significant in our moves to get Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds. - They preferred taking a one-year hit for Dareus, rather than letting him be a salary cap drain for the next 4 years.

Anybody who has watched this team longer than 3-4 years should have known it could get MUCH worse. EJ Manuel Trent Edwards JP Losman Rob Johnson Todd Collins

The Bills have attracted plenty of top-tier free agents over the years, even when they were bad. Mario Williams, Takeo Spikes, Ted Washington, Bryce Paup, Chris Spielman, etc. all come to mind. Just like when regular people are job-hunting, there are dozens of factors that play into where someone decides to sign a contract (or take a job). Money is usually the biggest factor, regardless of employment field. Cost of living does factor into that. But other very important factors could be: - Comfort with the leadership/boss (head coach or coordinator) - What the position actually entails (scheme fit) - Distance from family (why many take hometown discounts) Athletes have the unique situation of competing for a championship, but that changes from season to season. Fans in Buffalo are very self-conscious about their city's weather. But considering that half the teams in the NFL play in equally cold areas, I doubt it's really much of a factor in where players decide to sign.

Thanks for taking the time to do this. It's an interesting concept to examine. A few things I would like to point out however: 1. Removing the two "outliers" from the list completely defeats the purpose of a statistical analysis. There are only 11-12 relevant data points to begin with, and you are basically removing 15-20% of the results from that small amount. 2. The quarterback list is partially misleading, because veteran QBs are listed by their tenure with a team, instead of how many years they are in the NFL. For example, Trent Dilfer is listed as winning in year 1, even though it was his 8th year in the league. Same with Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning (with the Broncos) and Nick Foles. 3. I find it very interesting that most General Managers don't win a championship with the first coach they hire. The majority needed at least two attempts to get it right (and some even more). However, coaches and QBs are usually tied close together. My assumption is that this study is supposed to justify the impatience over the Bills rebuild. The bottom line is - Sean McDermott is in Year 2, Brandon Beane in Year 1 (and a half) and Josh Allen in Game 5. It's way too early to know anything. The NFL's only remaining undefeated team and most unstoppable offense (Rams) finished 4-12 during Jared Goff's 2016 rookie season. They were DEAD LAST in virtually every offensive category and Goff was easily the WORST quarterback in the league. One year later, they were Super Bowl favorites.

Special teams was a major contributor in a close loss to the Texans, and that screw up on the field goal could have easily cost us the Titans game as well.

Fans would throw a fit, but it would probably be the correct move at the end of the day. You don't reach for need, when a generational talent is staring you in the face. And if you are looking long-term, you only have 1-2 years before Jerry Hughes' contract runs out. Someone like Nick Bosa would be a valuable addition. You do your best to upgrade the roster in Free Agency, hope that Josh Allen develops, cross your fingers that Shady doesn't take a big step back, and go for the most talented players available in the draft regardless of position.

These are all excellent points, and I totally agree with you. However, I think the biggest concern Bills fans have (at least the more rational ones) isn't about our Win/Loss record, but on the plan for Josh Allen's long-term development. The adrenaline stemming from Draft Day has worn off. The excitement from watching our rookie QB make highlight throws in the preseason has disappeared. Reality is starting to set in, and fans are starting to realize how much work Allen really needs before he can become a good starter in the NFL. People want to see some kind of sign that Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott know what they are doing. They have no track-record or history of success developing a quarterback. So when they confidently trot out Nathan Peterman, and he proceeds (every single time) to look like the worst QB in NFL history - it doesn't exactly calm the concerns that we know how to scout QB talent. When we trade away our veteran backup (McCarron), then wait 6 weeks and sign Derek Anderson - it seems like they underestimated the importance of Allen having a mentor and are panicking over his slow development, as opposed to it being part of their master plan. Bottom line... Bills fans want to believe this front office was brilliant enough to identify Allen as a future NFL All-Pro, and have a perfect blueprint laid out on how they will get him to that level. (See Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes). Instead it just looks like they are throwing $#!+ at the wall, and crossing their fingers everything will turn out all right.

Most of the players we cut were gone last year, and we were still competitive enough to go 9-7 and make the playoffs. The reason we are struggling is because we are starting a rookie QB, and he is terrible right now. End of story. An argument could be made that we would possibly be 3-3 if we still had Tyrod Taylor on the roster. But the team that actually has Taylor has already moved on as well. And at some point, we would still need to put Josh Allen into the lineup and let him struggle. If you want to argue that our staff is bungling Allen's long-term development, that's certainly something up for debate. But if you are complaining about our record in 2018, then you never had realistic expectations going into the season.

Whether we pick #1 or just in the Top 5-10, it's going to be interesting to see how the Bills approach this draft. By most accounts, the 2019 class is going to be one of the strongest Defensive Line drafts in the history of the NFL. The top 2-3 prospects all play on the D-Line, and it would not be surprising if 75% of the First Round picks are either Defensive Ends or Tackles. Regardless of where our team needs are, it's going to be ridiculously tough for any GM to pass on the D-Line talent staring them in the face at the top of the draft. On the flip side, this draft looks very weak on the offensive side. There are hardly any standouts at Wide Receiver, Offensive Line or even Running Back. Maybe a few guys will rise into mid-First Round consideration by next April. But nothing to get really excited about if you are picking at the top of the draft. Worse yet... It's going to be really tough to get a nice haul trading down, because the Quarterback class also looks mediocre. And the top prospect (Justin Herbert) could very likely stay in school another season. Bottom line -- It's going to be really tough to convince teams to trade into the Top 5, when the top picks are going to be D-Line and there are bound to be excellent D-Line guys still available 20 picks later. And if we are really determined to upgrade the offensive side of the ball, that could very likely mean passing on a generational defensive talent and reaching too high for a receiver or blocker.