mjt328

Seattle is a perfect example of why you build a team around the Quarterback, and not around an elite defense. When it comes down to it, a team like New England only has to worry about ONE player on the roster. Tom Brady. They pay him what he wants, and make sure he stays healthy. The rest of the roster just needs to be decent, without any glaring holes. They will compete for the Super Bowl every single year. A team like Seattle needs to worry about ELEVEN guys on the other side of the ball. Earl Thomas or Richard Sherman goes down with an injury, they are in trouble. Salary cap builds up, and they are forced to trade Michael Bennett and let Sheldon Richardson walk. Make a few bad draft picks, and suddenly depth becomes a problem. It's an impossible task to juggle for any extended length of time. With a talented QB like Russell Wilson, I'm sure the Seahawks can purge cap space and build their way back into being a contender (if they draft well). But a team can only count on the "surrounding pieces" to be elite for so long, and then it's back to the QB being forced to carry everyone else.

I wouldn't attribute the "swamp drain" to Sean McDermott specifically. The Pegulas were not experienced in the football business when they first purchased the Bills. They weren't planning to just walk into the building and fire everyone, regardless of what the fans wanted to see happen. The overhaul was something that would clearly take some time. When Doug Marrone quit only a year after the Pegulas bought the team, I think it really caught them off guard. The team looked pretty talented on defense, and had just put together the first winning season in a very long time. Things were starting to look up. Usually head coaches are fired as part of a team totally clearing house. That wasn't the case here. The Pegulas liked the direction the team appeared to be going, so they kept Doug Whaley as General Manager and tried to find a coach that could work with him. When Rex Ryan was fired, the Pegulas were clearly ready to start-over. But in order to keep the scouting work done over the previous 12 months, they decided to wait until after the draft to get rid of Whaley and the scouting staff. Once that move happened, it was only a matter of time before everything underneath was overhauled. This whole Russ Brandon thing was an unexpected situation. I don't believe he makes football decisions and hasn't for awhile. If all of this questionable conduct stuff hadn't come around, I believe he would have continued to be part of the Bills organization for a very long time.

Based on everything we know, and everything that has been reported - the answer is almost certainly no. Josh Allen would have definitely been picked before #12. Over the last few months, I've been very clear about my preference. I personally had Josh Rosen as my #2 quarterback (after Sam Darnold), and very much wanted him before Allen. In fact, I wasn't much of an Allen fan at all, and was pretty disappointed when the Bills decided to go with him. But it's clear that NFL teams did not feel that way. At least a good chunk of them. Whether Bills fans like it or not, many GMs and coaches had major concerns over Rosen's personality/character/leadership. The Browns have openly admitted there was something about Rosen they didn't like. There were countless reports during the draft that Rosen was going to be the 4th QB off the board (he was) and some teams refused to draft him altogether. I like what I saw with Rosen on tape. But there is something about him in the interview process (which fans are not privy to) that totally turned teams off. Two weeks ago, we could have chalked this up to a smokescreen. Now that the draft is finished and teams are more willing to discuss their thoughts, it's becoming clear those reports were very accurate.

Very good point. It's also important to recognize the higher level of scrutiny that players face today. Back when Losman was picked, the NFL Draft started on ESPN early Saturday morning. Unless you were a college football fanatic, your only source for "feedback" on a prospect was Mel Kiper. You watched his "Big Board" and then waited to see his reaction on your team's pick. Today, the NFL Draft is nearly 3 months of build-up, leading to a primetime event on multiple channels. There are thousands of "experts" with thoughts on prospects. Anyone with an internet connection can pour over hours of game film and YouTube videos, and gain their own opinion on a player.

Back in 2004, we still had Drew Bledsoe. There wasn't a feeling of total desperation for us to draft a QB. Because of that, the move-up for JP Losman was a pretty big surprise, and I don't think people had a great handle on him as a player - at least compared to today, where fans watch hours of online videos to prep themselves. I recall there were a lot of Brett Favre comparisons with JP Losman, and everyone kept saying how bad Green Bay wanted to draft him. So even though we was a little bit of a reach (most figured early 2nd Round), I think most fans convinced themselves it was a smart move. With EJ Manuel in 2013, I think most fans were just happy to see the Bills take a CHANCE ON SOMEONE. Buddy Nix had let three years pass by without drafting anyone, seemingly content with Ryan Fitzpatrick as his QB. Most fans didn't care if we had to reach. Before the draft, there were lots of warnings on how terrible the QB class was going to be. But the Bills had really backed themselves into a corner. There were lots of rumors that Doug Marrone wanted to draft Ryan Nassib at #8 overall, which really freaked some of us out (he ultimately went in the 4th Round). At least with Manuel, there were supposedly teams interested in taking him at the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2. After the pick was over, there was some relief that we didn't pick Nassib, some frustration we didn't take Geno Smith and mixed feelings on Manuel overall.

This draft hinges on the success of Josh Allen. Period. As a prospect, Allen is one of the most polarizing Quarterbacks to come out of college in decades. Some people saw him as the #1 QB in the draft. Others thought he should have been a Day 3 pick. So it's not surprising that everyone's draft reviews are going to reflect their opinion on Allen. Guys who had Allen ranked high are giving us A+ grades. Guys who had Allen ranked low are giving us D- and F grades.

I wasn't a huge fan of the Josh Allen pick (like many others, I really wanted Josh Rosen). But at the very least, I'm happy this front office took a chance on a 1st Round QB prospect. Without a franchise guy under center, we are spinning our wheels and going absolutely nowhere. We can draft "studs" and "generational talents" at every other position on the field. It does not matter without a quarterback. Please name me ONE defensive tackle, offensive tackle or wide receiver in the last 25-30 years who carried his team to a Super Bowl. There was a time recently that Detroit had the best WR in the game (Calvin Johnson) and the best DT in the game (Suh). And that team still rode on the back of Matthew Stafford. In fact, the team hasn't even missed them being gone since Johnson retired and Suh was let go in free agency. Two of the BEST players in the game, and their true impact was marginal. The best OT over the last decade (Joe Thomas) has been on the NFL's absolute worst team. He is a future 1st ballot Hall of Famer, yet has made exactly ZERO difference in that team's success. He just retired after helping carry the Browns to a 1-31 record in two seasons. But I promise you, if Baker Mayfield only plays at an above-average level as a rookie, Cleveland's win-loss record will turn around overnight.

Maybe. The key point is Josh Allen. When you draft a 1st Round QB, it will either save or sink the franchise. Whaley’s failure had nothing to do with focusing more on offense or defense.

There are two aspects in judging the wisdom of a draft pick: 1) How was the player obtained? 2) How good is the player? When it comes to the first aspect, I think that Brandon Beane played his cards very well. I believe he found the sweet spot, where he wasn't forced to give up everything to land his guy. But he also didn't get cold feet at the price (yes, he gave up more than the draft chart calls for) and end up missing out on the player he really wanted. For example, imagine what we would have needed to trade in order to outbid the #3 pick from the Colts a month ago. Imagine if we didn't pull the trigger at pick #7, and then Arizona took our target. Of course, none of this will matter in 6-9 months. Josh Allen will ultimately be judged by his on-field performance. Fans are never going to forgive Beane if Josh Rosen turns out to be a better QB. Fans are going to second-guess whether he should have moved higher, depending on how good Sam Darnold turns out. And even though Beane wasn't here for the 2017 draft, it's going to be ugly in Western NY if Allen is an inferior QB to either Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson.

99% of the fans know nothing about players outside the 1st-2nd Round. So they rejoice or complain based purely on how well the team checks off "needs" on the positional depth chart. Listen. I understand our desperate need for players on the O-Line. We are in trouble there. But in 2-3 years, nobody is going to care what "position" we drafted in the 4th-5th Round. They are going to care whether we actually landed a good player or not. If you know nothing about Taron Johnson or Siran Neal, never watched either of them play, and are only complaining because they don't play on the offensive side of the ball - it would probably be wiser just to sit back and keep quiet.

First of all, New England did not have ammo to easily move into the Top 10. Second, (and this part is more of a hunch) Belichick is not looking for the future. He is looking to win another championship and retire. I always thought the QB stuff was a smokescreen. Honestly, I would be surprised if they draft a QB before the 3rd-4th. If that.

Brett Favre was extremely accurate. Brett Favre could read a defense. Yes, his arm strength was fantastic. But it wasn't the only thing that made him great. And it didn't give him a "higher ceiling" than other top QBs of his day. To be honest, despite having an A+ arm, Favre was not as great as he could have been. His decision-making was often questionable. And it's the main reason that Favre only won a single Super Bowl.

Here is the thing I have never understood about QB prospects like Josh Allen: Scouts always say he has the biggest upside, the highest ceiling and the most potential. BUT WHY? Is it because the guy is 1-2 inches taller and 10-20 pounds heavier than the average NFL Quarterback? I can understand why scouts are skeptical of short guys. There are numerous problems associated with field vision on guys under 6'1. But I don't see how a guy who stands 6'5 holds any advantage over someone who stands 6'4. It's totally irrelevant towards how good a guy can be. Is it because of his arm strength, and the fact he can throw an 80-yard bomb? Once again, I can understand how scouts would be concerned about a guy with a weak arm. But once it's clear a QB can make all of the necessary NFL throws without an issue, how is arm strength even a factor? Most of the NFL greats have had very average arms (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana). There are obviously NFL greats with strong arms (Marino, Elway), but it wasn't just because of how hard/fast they could throw a football. Is it because of his athletic ability, and how well he can run? Well OK. I guess I can see that being a really nice skill to have. Except 99% of the offensive coordinators in the pros completely refuse to take advantage of that kind of talent, and always try to force their QBs into being standard pocket passers, with running as an absolute last resort. I've been watching this sport for 30+ years. The greatest quarterbacks are ALWAYS those who can calmly/quickly read a defense, make smart decisions about where to throw, and then get the ball there accurately. I have NEVER seen an NFL quarterback succeed long-term without these characteristics. Size, arm strength and athletic ability are pointless, unless you can also develop these parts of your game. These are all areas that Allen needs a TON of work.

Assuming this wasn't a total panic/desperation move, I would assume that New York has at least 3 Quarterbacks they would be equally comfortable with landing.

I believe the Bills have a handful of Quarterbacks they would be comfortable with drafting. But each one has a different value. And as such, they are only willing to trade so much to move up and get that player. Based on the fact they haven't made a trade yet (I'm making the assumption the Giants are even willing), my guess is that Brandon Beane only has one QB with a "premier" grade. And they aren't going to make a trade with the Giants, unless they are certain that player is still available. They can't be absolutely certain until the Browns make their pick. If that top QB is gone, I imagine the Bills will wait for the Giants and Jets to make their selections. If there is still a guy they really like, I imagine they will start working the phones for Picks #4 and down. Once again -- they have a price they are willing to pay, and a cost that is too expensive. Depending on how each scenario plays out, I think Beane has prepared himself for trading up to #2, trading up to #4-10, picking at #12, and possibly even waiting until later in the draft to grab his QB. As a fan, I can only hope they have done their homework and don't get cold feet on pulling the trigger for the right guy. I don't want them settling for a long-shot, just because they weren't willing to part with enough draft capital. At the same time, I don't want them desperately trading everything for a guy they don't believe in.

I prefer Sam Darnold (slightly) because of the injury concerns. But if we can land Josh Rosen instead without giving up a ton of picks, I'll consider that a big win.

Wait a minute. Are you suggesting that a trade from October 2017 had a "secret additional pick" attached, which was not reported to the NFL? I'm pretty sure the NFL requires paperwork to make any trade official, and something like that would not be allowed.

The Browns are keeping everything secret, because it may give them an advantage at #4. Instead of letting teams plan around them weeks before the draft, they can watch the mad scramble on Thursday night (probably for quarterbacks) and then take their choice of non-QB options when the smoke clears. I think the Bills have several different QB targets. Which one they get will be totally dependent on how the draft board falls, and how much teams are asking in a trade. It's possible a trade with the Giants is still on the table. But it totally depends on who the Browns take, and whether New York is even willing to move out at that point. If our top 1-2 guys are gone, I think we start talking to the Broncos at #5 and then work our way down. At some point, I think one of those teams will work a deal. But if by chance we get shutout, I think Beane will just use his picks on other positions and target someone later in the draft like Mason Rudolph or Kyle Lauletta.

Depends on who "our guy" is. Assuming we only have our target set on a single QB, and not a few of them. You really can't believe any of the reports out there. Maybe the Giants are telling everyone they want Sam Darnold, because they want to increase the price tag for the #2 pick. Picking a Top 5 quarterback is a franchise game-changer. It alters your entire strategy, not only for the draft, but the entire season. If they go for Saquan Barkley, Bradley Chubb, etc. - that suggests they are comfortable with Eli Manning for a year or two and will try to win now before he retires. If they take a QB, it signals a total rebuild for the franchise. It's two totally different directions. I have a tough time believing Dave Gettleman is waiting on the Cleveland Browns to decide his entire strategy for 2018. If I had to guess, I think the Bills have a few QBs they would be comfortable with taking. Which one they get will ultimately depend on how the board falls, and what the price tag is to move up.

I'm very confident they are moving up for somebody. Either the Bills have a prospect they LOVE and are willing give up a bunch to get him... or they have a few guys they would be very happy with, and just need to jump a few more spots to make sure they aren't left empty handed. Who will they end up landing? Which spot will they need to trade into? Even Brandon Beane doesn't know that for sure. He probably (hopefully) has a plan, which can change depending on the scenario and who is still on the board. The fact that Cleveland hasn't traded the pick yet, tells me they aren't in business to move. Despite the back-and-forth reports, the Browns have a clear target at #1. They just aren't letting that information leak out. Once the Browns turn that card in, the Bills may be scrambling to get the Giants on the phone. If their top guy is off the board, they may start talking to the Broncos at #5 or one of the teams directly after them.

I could legitimately see the Bills trading up into almost any spot. Depending on who the Browns take at #1, I still think the Giants #2 pick is very much a possibility. If that doesn't work, I think anything between #4-10 would be a real fall-back option (assuming we like more than 2-3 guys). The good news: Due to our immense draft capital, Brandon Beane should have the "right of first refusal" on any offer. We have more/higher picks than anyone else in the NFL. So if someone trades ahead of us, it's only because Beane wasn't willing to give enough away. The bad news: I still worry about the Giants and Broncos drafting a QB, which could ultimately leave us on the outside looking in anyway.

I think it's the complete opposite. Most years, there are only 1-2 legitimate/consensus Quarterback prospects at the top of the draft. Teams desperate for a QB have no choice but to swing a deal for one of those top picks. Otherwise, they will miss out. This year, there are 4-5 legitimate QB prospects. And there is really no consensus over which guy is the best. It really comes down to a matter of preference and team fit. In addition, the teams at the top (specifically the Browns and Giants) are playing their strategy very close to the vest. By this point, we usually have a pretty good idea who is going #1 overall. And we usually have an idea which direction the #2 pick is leaning. This year, the Browns have been linked to virtually everyone. They aren't giving away their strategy for anything. And nobody has a clue if the Giants want a QB or not. Same thing with the Broncos at #5. When you add everything up... it becomes pretty clear why teams aren't making trades yet. Let's say the Bills are specifically targeting ONE QUARTERBACK, and trade away everything to move up to #2 before the draft even starts. What happens if the Browns take that guy at #1? The Bills have completely screwed themselves. It's best to wait and see who the Browns take, then possibly deal with the Giants. Now lets say the Bills really like a THREE OR FOUR QUARTERBACKS. It's totally possible that the Giants and Broncos pass on QBs, and they will be able to land their guy with a much smaller move-up into the #6-10 range. Why trade everything for Sam Darnold, when you can get Josh Rosen with a much lower offer? I think ALL of the teams after Cleveland are viewing the draft like this. That is why you haven't seen anything happen yet.

Like the other poster said, I think the general idea of these posts was interesting. And it obviously took a lot of work. But it's hard to take your conclusions seriously, considering how subjective your definition of a "hit" and a "miss" is. Maybe it would be more effective if you came up with a concrete baseline for what makes a player a "hit" - such as how many years they play in the NFL, how many games they start in the NFL, etc., etc. I also think a GM should get more credit for hitting on a Pro-Bowl talent like Aaron Schobel, than he does for hitting on a special teams guy like Mario Haggan. Maybe give picks a grade like A, B, C, D or F. When ranking Donahoe as a GM, you also need to consider that JP Losman cost two 1st Round Picks, and Drew Bledsoe cost another. Right now, your system seems to be some combination of how good the player was, against what round they were drafted in, with a dash of how long they actually played for Buffalo. Then everything boils down to nothing more than a percentage of successful picks. It's not really working.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Virtually every QB prospect is a "project" when they get drafted. The jump from college to the pros is way too big. Almost nobody enters the league as a finished product, ready to set the league on fire. Very few NCAA programs are based primarily in NFL offensive concepts. That's a major hurdle. Very few players compete frequently with high-quality defenses. That's major hurdle. Very few quarterbacks have perfected their throwing mechanics at this point. That's a major hurdle. That's one of the reasons NFL scouts focus so heavily on physical traits. It's a lot easier to measure. You may not know how well a QB will adapt to an NFL scheme or mentally process an NFL defense. But you can determine whether a guy has the arm strength to make all the required throws. You can get out a yard stick and determine whether he's tall enough to see over an O-Line without problems.

Personally, I give Sam Darnold the slight edge (because of injury concerns). But Josh Rosen is a very close second. He's already better than most NFL quarterbacks when it comes to accuracy, anticipation and ability to read a defense. To me, these qualities have proven more successful than raw prospects with size/arm talent (Josh Allen) and athletic ability (Lamar Jackson). There are no questions about his size or ability to run a pro-style offense (Baker Mayfield). I understand that leadership is important. But many of Rosen's critics seem to be nitpicking personality traits. If he slides because of his political views or because he talks about beating Tom Brady's records, that will be the most ridiculous thing I've seen in ages.