mjt328

The odds have probably increased of Kirk Cousins heading to Minnesota. It always seemed like the Vikings had their pick of the litter. Now that it's 100% clear they aren't bringing Case Keenum back, one has to assume they are close to locking up a deal with Cousins. I don't think Keenum necessarily stops Denver from targeting a Quarterback in the draft. But it may be a signal they are concerned about the QB they want falling to #5. They know that Buffalo (at least) is trading ahead of them and the Jets before this whole thing is over with. Cleveland is definitely taking one. It would be funny if the Jets somehow get screwed in this whole situation.

Looking at the draft order, I don't think getting to #12 is our ultimate goal. In terms of "QB-needy" teams, that only gets us ahead of Arizona. Even if the Bills like 4-5 guys, I don't think they can be confident that Cleveland, New York, Denver, New York and Miami are going to pass on someone. Not to mention someone else trading up. I also don't think Beane makes this trade without a plan already in place to go higher. Imagine moving up 9 spots, only to have other teams jump ahead and take the guy(s) you were after. Or getting up this far, then not having a willing trade partner to swap. That would be a major blunder from our front office. My guess is that we have already discussed this with other teams, and have a pending trade in place with Cleveland, New York Giants or Indianapolis. Don't be surprised if something else pops in the next week or so.

Anybody think the Bills aren't targeting a QB?

Hope we got something good in return. Not just another salary cap dump (Marcel Dareus).

If we are going back to a "Power Blocking" scheme, isn't anyone else concerned about Dion Dawkins having a sophomore slump?

Not saying this guy has any sources... And I do fully expect Drew Brees to re-sign with New Orleans... But doesn't anyone find it the slightest bit strange that a contract has no been agreed upon yet? The Free Agency negotiating period starts today. Free Agency officially starts Wednesday. Wouldn't it be in the Saints best interest to get him signed and sealed well before that date, so they know what the cap situation will look like? It only makes sense that something is holding up the deal. Either Brees is unhappy with what the Saints are currently offering him, or he wants to test the market.

This is exactly my point though. Most NFL coaches will not adapt their offense to a player's strengths. Maybe we get crazy lucky and Brian Daboll is the rare exception. He manages to build an entire offense around the strengths of his quarterback, and has success doing it. Then guess what? There is a good chance he gets promoted somewhere else. Then what are the chances we get another coordinator willing to do the same thing? This is my primary reason against drafting Lamar Jackson as well. He probably needs a creative coaching staff to make it work. And too many coaches in this league are stuck on doing the same old thing. Let's just draft the prototypical pocket passer that 95% of the coaches in the NFL are comfortable working with, and call it a day.

If the Bills are seriously considering trading a high draft pick for Nick Foles, I am hoping they are asking themselves a few simple questions: 1. What happened to Foles and his play during the 2014-2016 seasons? 2. Why was nobody in our organization interested in Foles when he was available during Free Agency exactly one year ago? 3. How much did their opinion of Foles change between January 20, 2018 and February 4, 2018? The cold hard facts. Most of the media saw Foles as a backup-level QB, and felt the Eagles were going to get easily knocked out by the Vikings in the Divisional Playoffs. Three weeks and two games later, he was suddenly a tremendous asset and best reserve in the league.

I'm not going to account for age, because a handful of these guys are way past their prime. Green, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Manning, Winston, Smith, Brees The only time I picked the receiver was with Cincinnati. In this case, you have an elite receiver with a very average quarterback. I almost considered Tampa Bay, but only because I'm not very impressed with Winston. Right now, he's below average. But he still has time to turn it around.

NFL Scouts love size and arm strength in Quarterbacks. They always have and always will. Cam Newton was a read-option QB in college, with horrible mechanics and accuracy issues. Yet he went #1 in one of the most stacked drafts in NFL history. When teams see Josh Allen, they see his physical size and one of the strongest arms in 10 years. Lamar Jackson is 2 inches shorter, 30 pounds lighter and an above-average arm.

Ugh. Another video pushing the racism angle. The word "project" quarterback is used for 95% of the guys out there. Pretty much anyone that isn't playing in an under center Pro-Style offense, who doesn't go to a big school or who doesn't have excellent throwing mechanics is considered a project. I've seen the same term thrown around for Josh Allen and Sam Darnold plenty over the last few weeks. People see Lamar Jackson as another QB who used his legs a lot in college to achieve success. His accuracy is questionable. He's just barely at the height threshold, but has a small frame. It's not about his skin color. People said the same thing (and were right) about Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel, Matt Jones and countless others.

The playoff drought was a dark cloud hanging over the entire franchise. Every new GM, coach and player immediately had the tremendous pressure of trying to break that streak. And now it's over. Based on the estimates being thrown around, a trade-up (into the Top 5) will ultimately cost us about 3-4 early picks. So the difference between already being in the Top 5 and needing to trade up is approximately 3 potential starters at other positions. In the end, you are sacrificing one season of rebuilding for the joy of making the playoffs this year. Instead of becoming a legitimate contender in 2019, you are probably looking at 2020. To me, that extra year is worth it.

The Jaguars will be in salary cap hell by 2019 or 2020. That team is built on the same model as the Seattle Seahawks. The problem is, Blake Bortles is not Russell Wilson.

Free Agency can be an awesome tool. If you use it right. It's OK to overpay once in awhile, if you can land the key piece that pushes you over the top. But if your team drafts like crap and you are trying to build through Free Agency, it will only take 1-2 seasons before the salary cap catches up.

Teams are starting to realize Free Agency is usually "Fools Gold." In the first week of Free Agency, these teams sign Top 15 level guys to ridiculous Top 5 contracts. Then 2-3 years later, they are doing everything in their power to dump the salary. Trading them for 3rd Day Draft Picks, or cutting them outright. Just look at how many "big name" vets are on the street right now, on the trading block or preparing to be released.

I will be surprised if the Bills make any kind of splash in Free Agency. My guess is that fans will be crying and screaming by Thursday/Friday when the Bills haven't signed anyone. In my opinion, the Vontae Davis and Chris Ivory signings (along with Brandon Beane's comments) suggest they are going to do everything necessary to land some compensation picks for next year. That means losing more free agents than gaining, and prioritizing guys who have been cut/waived over those who are unrestricted. This is the strategy employed by teams like New England, Green Bay and Baltimore. The maximum comp picks a team can get is four. My guess is that we are going to lose EJ Gaines, Preston Brown and Jordan Matthews to decent contracts. There is no guarantee that Kyle Williams comes back and could theoretically sign with another team. There are always lower level guys who latch on somewhere in the early days of free agency. Maybe Seantrel Henderson.

What if next year's Quarterback class isn't any good? Do we just push the decision off until 2020? Drafting a Quarterback high is ALWAYS going to hurt. Either we will be drafting too low and will need to give up a kings ransom to move up... OR we will have to suffer through a terrible season to get into the Top 5. And no matter what you do, there will always be safer players available. The QB prospects will always have flaws that make them risky. There will always be "other holes" on the roster that need to be fixed.

I agree with this statement. The Bills absolutely must get out of this draft with a Quarterback they believe can be our long-term answer. Not a mid-round project like Cardale Jones or Nate Peterman. How many guys they think fit that mold will determine what kind of draft strategy they should employ. If they only believe in 3-4 guys (let's just say Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield), then Brandon Beane better be making his pre-draft calls and be prepared to make a trade into the Top 5-10. Because it's highly unlikely that any of these fall to #21, and I'm skeptical any of them will make it past Miami at #11 or Arizona at #15. If we also see guys like Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph in that light, then we can probably sit tight and watch the draft play out. There is a good chance that someone will fall to our first pick. And if QBs start disappearing, it will be more feasible to only move up 5-6 spots and get our guy. However, I absolutely do not believe we can wait until #53. Not too far behind us, you have New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and New England, who could definitely be in the market for a Quarterback. And if any of the early teams (Cleveland, New York Giants, Denver, New York Jets, Miami, Arizona) pass on a QB in Round 1, they will be itching to snatch someone up early in Round 2.

I'm also skeptical about spending much to acquire these guys. Nick Foles was fantastic back in 2013 when Chip Kelly's offense was new to the league. After a year of film and defenses adjusting accordingly, his play dropped off. Big time. So much so, the Eagles were willing to trade him away. Once on the Rams, Foles struggled so badly, he was immediately cut and even considered retiring from football. Winning a Super Bowl this season boosted Foles' resume. Now half the league thinks he's worth a 1st or 2nd Round Pick. But in reality, we are talking about 6 total starts in 2017... and his 4 of those games were just OK. Are you willing to part with a high draft pick for what equates to two good games (the Minnesota and New England playoff games)? Sam Bradford has often played like a Top 10-15 NFL quarterback. But the guy cannot stay healthy. In 8 seasons, Bradford has played 16 games only twice. Last year, he lasted a total of ONE GAME before going down yet again. He's always getting hurt and now he's 30 years old. At some point, you have to realize it's not just bad luck. Bradford is brittle. Case Keenum had a really good season last year. But where was he before that? He was a marginal NFL backup for 5 seasons, then suddenly broke out when Pat Shurmur got a hold of him. Is he a one-year wonder? Or was this a legitimate breakout season? If I was a betting man, my guess is that Keenum will sign for good money and struggle to duplicate his success next season. Teddy Bridgewater was ridiculously overrated, even before the injury. If someone could please explain what Bridgewater did good in his first two seasons, I would love to hear it. And that was before he totally destroyed his leg and almost ended his career. There is a pretty good chance he will settle for a "prove-it" deal, so he may come cheap. But in my opinion, he wasn't playing much better than a low-level starter before. I don't think you can expect much more now.

Brandon Beane needs to follow in the footsteps of the great Buddy Nix. First, cut every veteran Quarterback on the roster and leave yourself with nothing. Second, convey absolute desperation at every opportunity to say how bad you need to draft a 1st Round Quarterback before retiring. Third, overdraft your prospect out of the worst QB class in decades.

To me, a player is either successful in the NFL... or he isn't. Where he was drafted really doesn't matter. For instance, fans like to rag on Donte Whitner because he wasn't the quality one may "expect" from a Top 10 Pick. But at the end of the day, the guy played 11 years in the NFL. He even made three Pro Bowls. The guy was a solid pick by Marv Levy. The same can be said for Ronnie Harmon, who played 12 years and made a Pro Bowl himself. Now don't get me wrong. GMs absolutely need to be hitting on those 1st Round Picks. Those are the prospects who should be slam-dunks. I just don't think Player A should be held to a higher standard, just because he was selected before Player B.

Excellent topic, and I very much appreciate the work that you put in. But I do think you are missing the overall picture when it came to Bill Polian's time in Buffalo. First of all, Polian was the Pro-Personnel Director in 1984 and 1985. So although he was not technically the "man at the top", he was absolutely instrumental in the draft that brought us Bruce Smith, Andre Reed and Frank Reich. Second, you have to consider how the NFL Draft was structured at the time. There were 12 Rounds, instead of 7. Regardless of the whopping number of picks, this made it no less difficult to find a decent NFL player after the 3rd-4th Round. If you want to rank GMs on a similar percentage basis, then you would probably need to factor in hits/misses on Undrafted Free-Agents for the more recent guys (Levy, Brandon, Nix, Whaley). Don't forget, in 1988 the Bills were without a 1st Rounder. And in 1989, they were without a 1st AND 2nd Rounder. This was due to the Cornelius Bennett trade (which Polian was responsible for), which yielded us a fantastic defensive player who was vital in all of our Super Bowl years. Contrast this with Brandon's draft, where he got an EXTRA 1st Round Pick for trading away a Pro-Bowl left tackle in Jason Peters. Since the NFL was without Free Agency during those years, General Managers were also forced to find veteran help off the scrap heap/waiver wire. They couldn't just throw money at a big name player. In doing this, Polian still managed to land Hall of Famer James Lofton, the greatest special teams player in history Steve Tasker and the leader of our O-Line Kent Hull when the USFL folded. Not to mention guys like Kenneth Davis (Thurman's backup) and John Davis (starting Right Guard). As others have mentioned, you also may want to reconsider your standards for a "hit" and a "miss." Just because a player isn't a Pro-Bowl Star, that doesn't mean he wasn't a successful draft pick. The Bills had an absolutely LOADED roster. So they had several good players (who could have started elsewhere), sitting the bench for years and years. Guys like Ronnie Harmon, Mark Pike, Butch Rolle and Carwell Gardner aren't considered household names 25-30 years later. But they were good NFL players, who stuck around in the league for a long time. And finally, Polian was responsible for hiring a Hall of Fame Coach in Marv Levy to put everything together.

The Bills have been playing it "safe" for years now, and it hasn't gotten them anywhere. They have the ammunition. The playoff drought is over. It's time to take the chance. Listen, I get it. Drafting a Quarterback in the First Round always takes balls. If a team is already drafting high, it usually means passing on a fantastic prospect at another position (such as Saquan Barkley). If a team needs to trade up for a QB, it usually means sacrificing multiple picks in multiple drafts. College QBs face the hardest transition of any position on the field. Which makes them riskier and more likely to fail. And for a General Manager and Head Coach, it almost always means hitching their jobs on the success of one player. If a 1st Round Defensive Tackle busts, fans get upset. If a 1st Round QB busts, they want people fired. At the same time, no position will have the impact of a franchise QB. If we can land someone of the Matt Ryan or Phillip Rivers level, we have a playoff building block for the next 10-15 years. If we can land someone of the Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger level, we should be a Super Bowl contender for 10-15 years. I would much rather shoot for the stars and miss, rather than play it safe and go nowhere.

The problem is, no coaching staff is going to "plan" on starting a veteran for 4 games and then just replace him with a rookie QB. Especially a coach like Sean McDermott. Most coaches want to wait until the rookie is ready. Some will allow them to compete in training camp for the starting job. Some will wait until the season starts falling off the rails. Some will wait until they see something in practice. A coach like McDermott wants to win on Sunday. He isn't going to sacrifice the season just to give a rookie QB some experience. (I realize the irony considering his move last year with Nathan Peterman, but I truly believe he thought Peterman was going to play better than Taylor in Rick Dennison's offense). At the end of the day, I think Beane/McDermott want a veteran who can guide a team to the playoffs while their rookie prepares on the sidelines. And at the end of the day, Taylor still stands as one of the better veteran options on the market. Certainly better than McCown or Fitzpatrick. Arguably better than Keenum, Bradford, Bridgewater or McCarron (for reasons I stated previously). The only thing you gain from cutting Taylor is a little bit of cap space. And depending on which veteran you go with, it could possibly cost more. Keeping him gives you a better chance of landing a compensation pick. Trading him gets you something in return.

As I pointed out in another thread, I think much of this is about the Compensatory Pick formula. The old Bills would just cut Taylor as soon as possible, then sign a veteran off the street and cost themselves a comp pick. My guess is that Beane/McDermott are closely considering their other options. Cutting Taylor realistically gains them nothing, except some cap space. And depending on how much a replacement QB costs, it may turn into LESS cap space at the end of the day. Once free agency kicks into gear, the available QBs will start disappearing. Whoever is left out may be willing to part with a Day 3 pick for Taylor.