mjt328

Some of the old-timers on here (can't believe it's been 14 years), probably remember this one. Bills are ready to draft their QB of the future, with Drew Bledsoe's best days behind him. They are sitting at Pick #13. There are considered to be 3 top QB prospects in the draft. Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger. The Bills have admitted they really wanted Roethlisberger. And based on most of the mock drafts, it's totally realistic that he falls to us. But General Manager Tom Donahoe decided to sit on his hands instead of trading up a few spots to secure the guy he wanted. The Steelers surprised everyone by snatching him at #11, two spots ahead of our pick. Our front office settled for Lee Evans at #13 and then went into panic mode. They traded away the next year's #1 pick to move ahead of Green Bay and take the best option of the second tier... JP Losman. We ended up giving up a king's ransom anyway, and still got a lesser prospect. Roethlisberger went on to win multiple Super Bowls, while Losman was a massive bust.

Hmmm. Let's take a look then. The Ravens were contenders for roughly 5 years, before everything fell apart again. That would be from 2008-2012. Flacco was certainly a Top 10-15 quarterback during that stretch of his career. If you don't believe me, go back and look at the stats. And his play during the 2012 Super Bowl run was possibly the best a QB has ever played during a playoff stretch. Since Flacco's play has tailed off, the Ravens have been unable to maintain any sort of success. They haven't won the division since 2012, and have missed the playoffs 4 out of the last 5 seasons. I would say the Ravens are more of an example that proves my point.

Yes you did. There are obviously times where average/below average QBs have walked away with a Super Bowl trophy. But in each of those cases (Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler), the quarterbacks went through "hot streaks" and played especially well during the playoff run. And in all of those cases, the success was not sustained.

Just for fun, let's say a quarterback who is within the top half (let's say top 16) in the NFL. Find me one team who was a championship contender for longer than 4 years in a row, with a quarterback (or quarterbacks) who consistently played below that level.

You can't be serious. Kirk Cousins was an anomaly. Quarterbacks of his caliber never hit free agency, unless there are catastrophic injuries and Top 10 prospects waiting on the bench (like the situations involving Peyton Manning and Drew Brees). His contract means nothing. The salary cap will rise and teams will find ways to adjust to the market. If you think that franchise quarterbacks are suddenly going to be hitting the free agent market in coming years, you are out of your mind And desperate teams have ALWAYS been willing to overpay for successful backups. Do you recall the Bills sending a 1st Rounder to the Jaguars for Rob Johnson?

Building a roster without a franchise QB is not a recipe for consistent success, and never has been. Please give me an example of EVEN ONE TEAM in NFL history who was able to maintain success for longer than 4 years without strong play from the QB position.

How many times do people have to explain this? It's not about getting a SURE FIRE guy!!!!!!!!!!! There is ONE POSITION in the entire NFL that can single-handedly transform a bottom-feeder into a contender. There is ONE POSITION in the NFL that can dominate the league for 10-15 years. There is ONE POSITION in the NFL that can make everyone around him better. Let me give you a hint. It's not a Linebacker. It's not an Offensive Tackle. It's not a Wide Receiver or a Tight End. It's not a Cornerback or a Safety. The Jets can make strong draft picks every single year, and I couldn't care less. Having a strong roster does not make them a long-term threat. At the end of the day, building a roster without a Quarterback is a waste of time. Maybe who they get turns out to be Mark Sanchez, and we get lucky. But maybe he turns out to be Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Ben Roethlisberger, etc., etc. In which case, they will be a legitimate team to contend with until 2030.

What a joke. As of yesterday, the Jets had missed out on landing Kirk Cousins. They didn't even get Case Keenum or Sam Bradford. They had settled for a 1-year deal with Teddy Bridgewater, who was ridiculously overrated even before he totally destroyed his knee. For the draft, they were on the outside looking in. Behind Cleveland. Behind the Broncos. And most likely behind the Bills whenever a trade went through. Now they are in position to potentially land the franchise quarterback they have been missing. I can't understand how ANYONE in Buffalo could be happy about that. If they hit on a guy, they are in the prime position to take New England's place in the AFC East whenever Tom Brady and Bill Belichick retire. Meanwhile, we will get stuck (once again) stockpiling talent all over the roster, only to watch our passing game keep us from actually accomplishing anything.

Unbelievable. What's the most interesting is seeing the Jets move to #3 and not #2. This tells me a few things. Either: a) The Giants pick is not for sale. b) The Giants already have a better offer on the table c) The Giants asking price is way too high My hope when Beane moved us to #12 was that he already had a concrete deal in place to go up into the Top 3. Like I said earlier in the week, sitting at #12 was not going to be high enough. And waiting until Draft Day to make a move was just inviting other teams to jump up instead. I've been very impressed with how Beane has manipulated our draft position up until this point. And maybe there is something on the table that we are unaware of. But unfortunately, there is a very good chance that he was too tentative to pull the trigger, and we just missed out big time. If it wasn't already clear that Cleveland is taking a QB, this move pretty much cements it. They can't wait until Pick #4. If the New York Giants are unwilling to move from #2, there is a very high probability they are also after a QB. The Jets are obviously taking a QB. If anyone thinks Denver is going to pass on a QB they want just because they gave Case Keenum a 2-year contract, they are totally fooling themselves. And then you have Miami and Arizona sandwiching us. Forget waiting for the leftovers at #12. We could end up being FORCED to give up a king's ransom, just to get the leftovers. Walking out of this draft without our Quarterback of the future would be the biggest failure to befall this team has seen in years. Beane put all of his eggs into the 2018 basket. Besides trading down in last year's draft, we also traded away several players to obtain extra picks. Not only does next year's QB class look significantly weaker, but we won't have anywhere near the draft capital to move up. We won't have high-priced veterans to use as bait for extra picks. Our best hope then becomes totally bottoming out for 1-2 seasons, or relying on a mid-round project or veteran cast-off. I hope nobody is laughing at the Jets. A few days ago, they looked like the team who missed out on Kirk Cousins AND the team who would be forced to take the scraps off the draft pile. Now that team is us. If they get the right guy under center, it will totally transform that franchise. They won't miss any of the picks they gave up to land him.

Looking at the "number of holes" is not a way to build a roster. 1. Quarterback is the most important position on the team by a mile. We need to get this pick right. Not wait for the scraps to fall to us. 2. Zay Jones was a top prospect last year. His rookie year was disappointing, but I doubt the Bills have totally given up on him yet. 3. With the blocking scheme change, I'm optimistic that John Miller can come back and claim that spot at Right Guard. 4. I have no interest in bringing back Preston Brown. We can do better. Based on the estimates I've seen, we should have enough cap space to sign a few more guys. The second wave of players is significantly cheaper than the last. We should have plenty to bring in another Cornerback, a Linebacker, an Offensive Lineman and maybe another Wide Receiver. The key at this point is finding the diamonds in the rough, not the guys asking for $7-10 million per year. We can probably move up to #2 or #3 by trading away our extra 1st Round Pick and a 2nd Rounder. After a QB is picked, that would still leave us with a 2nd Round Pick and two 3rd Rounders this year, along with our entire draft next year. Three Day 2 picks to fill out the additional roster holes. I'm perfectly comfortable with that.

Things will start sorting themselves out closer to draft day. At this point, the combine/workouts are still fresh in people's minds. Many of those in the media haven't done extensive film review yet. Teams are throwing out smokescreens left and right. It's hard to tell whether all the sudden Josh Allen hype is for real. One thing to keep in mind though. Scouts and GMs seem to place more emphasis on physical abilities than most of the general football-watching public. Regular fans put more emphasis on stats and "how good" a player was in college. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the Allen hype is real. Although I personally would have REALLY have a tough time trading all these picks and moving up - just so we could take a massive boom/bust type prospect. It's going to be an especially tough pill for Bills fans to swallow, because Allen's scouting report reads so close to EJ Manuel. That's the main reason people are panicking over all the recent Josh Allen reports.

Of course not. And nobody is saying "draft order" magically makes players better or worse. For the most part, NFL scouts and GMs are in pretty close agreement about which players have the best chance of success in the pros. There are obviously some variations between teams. One team may place a premium on arm strength, while another is more interested in accuracy. Another may disqualify a player for off-field concerns, while another is willing to take the risk. Doctors may have different opinions about injury history. But if you could take a peek at all 32 draft boards, I think you would find them remarkably similar. When people post stats/historical data about "draft order" - what they are really trying to say is that higher ranked prospects (based on consensus) have a MUCH higher track record of success than lower ranked prospects. It's just simple math. Yes, there are always going to be Tom Bradys that nobody sees coming. Yes, there are always going to be Jamarcus Russells and Ryan Leafs that are raved about as prospects, then bust horribly. But the numbers don't lie. Your odds are better taking your 1st or 2nd ranked guy, as opposed to the 4th, 5th, etc. If you could take a look at every team's 2018 QB draft board, I would fully expect to see Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen within EVERY team's Top 2-5. Depending on how those teams rank things like arm strength, accuracy, height, athletic ability, etc., I would fully expect Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson sprinkled into those other spots. Of course, someone might like Allen or Mayfield as their #1. Others may have them at their #4-5. But I highly doubt (for example) that anyone will have Darnold ranked as a 4th Round prospect, or someone like Kyle Lauletta as worthy of a Top 5 pick. At the end of the day, if 32/32 scouts believe that Josh Rosen is going to have a better chance at success than Mason Rudolph... there is a higher probability they are going to be right.

I would rather have a Top 10 quarterback and a mediocre roster, than a mediocre quarterback and an elite roster. The only teams who have been able to MAINTAIN success for a lengthy period of time are those with TOP quarterbacks. Teams like Jacksonville are going to max out in 1-2 years. That franchise (especially the defense) is absolutely LOADED with talent. But their quarterback is sub-standard. By 2019-2020, the salary cap is going to catch up and they will be forced to purge a good chunk of the roster. Unless Blake Bortles takes a major step forward next year, that franchise will completely waste the opportunity. That is their window for success without a quarterback. The Colts have a terrible roster. But if Andrew Luck comes back healthy this year, they will be right in the middle of the playoff race. With even a little bit of talent, they have a much better chance at sustained/long-term success than Jacksonville. Until Luck is done, they will always have a shot.

I'm sure the Brown are considering Barkley. But when all is said and done, they will almost certainly take a Quarterback. That franchise has suffered too long without a decent QB to just take what is "leftover" at the #4 pick. It's very possible that both New York and Indy trade out. That means they could end up with their 3rd choice. Unless scouts like 3 guys equally (which is very rare), I have a feeling they will start leaning in that direction.

1. NFL history shows the vast majority of successful QBs are among the first 2-3 drafted in any given year. 2. NFL history shows that drafting success rates steadily decrease from the Top 5, to the Top 10, to the last half of the 1st Round, to the early 2nd Round, and so on. By the 4th or 5th Round, it's almost impossible to even find a marginal starter. Some of the fans on this board are unbelievable. After what this franchise has endured for the last two decades, many of you would STILL prefer to go the safe route. You would prefer to let the 3rd, 4th or 5th option fall to us - rather than get the pick of the litter in a strong QB class, JUST so we can have another Linebacker or Receiver on the roster.

Just logged on. 10 pages dedicated to an anonymous bartender's "inside" information. Part of me is shocked that anyone thought this could possibly be credible. But then I remembered that CNN is still considered to be a major news network, and that most of the people I know get their news from Facebook, Twitter or the Daily Show.

Every indication is that Philly wants a 1st Round Pick. No way that we are creeping up the draft board, just so we can flip it over to the Eagles.

The D-Line is really starting to shape up. This gives us a nice 3-man rotation with Hughes, Lawson and Murphy. I would still like to see us draft another DT to eventually take Kyle's place. Our Linebacker group still looks terribly ugly. It's hard to believe that LB hasn't become a bigger priority over the last two offseasons, considering Sean McDermott's history as a Defensive Coordinator.

Jets are still picking a QB high. Denver is still a possibility. Miami is a possibility. Arizona would only need to trade up 2 spots to be ahead of us. 2017 - Watson had the best rookie year. It's a long-way before you can say he was the better pick. And guess what? Houston traded up to get him. If either Trubisky or Mahomes turn out good, their teams also traded up to get them. 2016 - Prescott was better as a rookie. Goff was better as a sophomore. Once again, it's going to be awhile before you can say who was the better pick. Either way, this draft has produced three potential franchise QBs so far. Two of them required major trade ups. Everyone else that waited besides Dallas was stuck with garbage. 2014 - This was an awkward class. Opinions were all over the place on Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater and Carr. All were considered late-1st or early-2nd round talents. None were considered top guys. Like the season we reached for Manuel, this would have been a good year to wait. But the Jags overdrafted Bortles, and the Raiders got the only real bargain. 2013 - This was probably the worst QB class in 20 years. Smith, Barkley, Manuel, Nassib, Glennon and a few others were generally considered 2nd Round talents at best. But it was inevitable someone was going to reach and look like idiots. Congratulations. It was us. Here is the thing. Quarterback is the toughest position to play in the NFL, with the most difficult transition from college to the pros. There is virtually no such thing as a safe QB prospect. There are only a handful of human beings who reach the height, hand-size and arm strength requirements to be a pro QB. Out of those guys, only a small percent have the accuracy and mechanics to be good at actually throwing the ball. Out of those guys, only a fraction have the mental capacity to quickly read a defense and react within a split-second. Not to mention that 99% of college offenses don't use the same system concepts that you see in the pros. No matter how much homework NFL scouts do on these guys, it's never going to be an exact science. A large number of QB prospects (even the top ones) just aren't going to make it. And at the end of the day, the General Manager/Head Coach/Scouts that decided to take the risk will be ridiculed and probably stand to lose their jobs, because they could have gone the safe route and picked a Pro-Bowl tackle or All-Pro linebacker. Now it's easy to see all the massive QB busts and assume this whole thing is a "toss-up" and you might as well wait until the later rounds. Right? I mean, Tom Brady was taken in the 6th Round! Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins were taken in the 4th Round! The problem is, these guys are the rare exception. Not the rule. You can almost count the success stories on one-hand of guys who came from the later rounds. Drew Brees (2nd), Derek Carr (2nd), Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd), Russell Wilson (3rd), Dak Prescott (4th), Kirk Cousins (4th), Tom Brady (6th). That's a total of 7 guys, out of hundreds of quarterbacks taken after the 1st Round over the last many years. Look around the league and you will see that most of the successful QBs in the league were the highest rated guys in their draft classes: Roethlisberger, Ryan, Stafford, Luck, Rivers, Wentz, Goff, Manning, Newton, Palmer, Smith and Rodgers were all in consideration for #1 overall in their respective drafts. The vast majority of NFL starters came in the top-half of the 1st Round. It has been this way for almost the entirety of NFL history. Regardless of the high percentage of QB busts, it's clear that NFL scouts know what they are doing. They know which guys have the highest chance of success, and which guys are a long-shot. Once in awhile, a short guy beats the odds (Brees, Wilson). Once in awhile, a player manages to improve drastically once he hits the pros (Brady). But the majority of the time, the best QBs are going to come off the board at the beginning of the 1st Round. If the Bills have their top choice out of everyone, that will give them the best odds at landing a good one.

At this point, the Bills are already down to scraps. Hopefully they don't get into a bidding war for AJ McCarron.

Why do we need to move up? Well, first of all, there are several QB-needy teams sitting in front of us (Cleveland, Denver, New York, Miami) or directly behind us (Arizona). If we sit in our current spot, we could realistically miss out on the Top 4-5 prospects. Second, this draft has some of the best QB prospects to come out in the last 5 years. Saying they have "flaws" or "warts" is just lazy, and can be said about virtually every QB prospect that has ever existed. This isn't the 2013 class, where everyone available was should have gone 2nd Round earliest. Both Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would get serious #1 consideration in most drafts. Finally, let's actually go back and look at the drafts since 2013, because I don't believe you are remembering them correctly. 2017 is too early to make a judgement call on. Mahomes played one game. Watson was hurt half the season. Trubisky was a rookie on a terrible team. 2016 - Best prospects were considered Goff and Wentz. They went #1-2, and by their sophomore seasons were easily the best QBs out of that class. Prescott was really good as a rookie, but slumped in Year 2 without the fantastic O-Line and running game. Outside of Prescott, nobody else drafted has been better than a backup. So 13 quarterbacks were drafted after the #2 pick and only one has been good. Not odds I like betting on. 2015 - Best prospects were considered Winston and Mariota. They went #1-2 and are easily the best QBs drafted that year. Everyone else has been backup level at best. If you wanted a QB this year, you needed to get one of these two guys. 2014 - Best prospect in a very weak class was considered Bortles, with a bunch of other guys considered late 1st Round/early 2nd Rounds. Best QB has been Derek Carr, who has been inconsistent. Teddy Bridgewater was OK (overrated) and then got hurt. And no, I'm not counting Jimmy G until he actually plays a full season as a starter. Nobody outside of the 2nd Round has done anything. 2013 - Everyone said the QB class was terrible, and sure enough, every QB was terrible. If you notice, there is a trend. Most years, there are 1-2 really strong QB prospects. Those guys always go in the Top 3, and usually end up as the best guys out of the draft class by far. In my opinion, both Darnold and Rosen fit that mold in this year's class. After the really strong guys, there are usually 3-5 guys with high upside, but certain traits that make them riskier bets. This year's examples would by Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and possibly Mason Rudolph. These guys are more hit-and-miss. The problem is, sometimes you have years like 2013-2014 where the "secondary guys" are the only thing available. That is when you get the Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel overdrafts who are outplayed by guys later.

You've pinpointed it exactly. Picking a QB in the first round is never the safest option. If you fail and get someone like EJ Manuel, it probably means 3-4 years of losing, followed by a start-over in the front office/coaching staff. If you play it safe, it usually means having a "talented roster" constantly pulled down by mediocre veteran QB play. But if you succeed, your team is set for 10-15 years with a franchise QB.

I was OK with us going after Sam Bradford. But I'm glad we didn't offer him that much. Yikes.

Again. It's not about being a "can't miss" future Hall of Famer. There is no such thing. Even Andrew Luck has been a relative disappointment (mostly due to injuries). If you are waiting for a QB prospect without flaws, you will be sitting around forever.

We could land the next Ray Lewis at #12, and that pick would still be a massive failure. When scouting a college player (especially a QB), it's not all about the "numbers" and trying to find a guy with "wow" statistics. It's all about building an overall picture on a prospect, then making an educated guess on how that translates to the next level. If this year's QB Class doesn't work for you, I don't know what you are waiting for. The last perfect/flawless prospect to enter the NFL was Andrew Luck in 2012. Before that, you are probably looking at Peyton Manning in 1998. Before that, probably John Elway in 1983. By that trend, it will probably be 2027 before we see another QB prospect of that caliber. They just don't come along very often. When you compare this year's QB Class against others, it's clear this one is pretty good. Against last year, I would guess that Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would be rated above anyone in the 2013, 2014, 2016 or 2017 drafts. To me, it's a toss-up between those guys and Jameis Winston. That's just looking at the past 5 seasons. If you would rather have an extra LB or DT (or whatever) instead of one of the better QB prospects in the last 5 years - then I'm glad you aren't running our front office.