mjt328

No interest in adding another WR, when we still don't have a decent QB. (And things are looking bleak for us doing something significant this year). We've already tried that route, and talent at receiver would just be wasted. Not to mention... If the Giants are shopping Beckham for picks, that should squash any rumors about them "trying to win" this year. They are clearly building for the future, and will almost certainly take a Quarterback. Which means we probably have no shot at #2, and the top 3 picks will all be quarterbacks.

I think Darnold goes #1, Rosen goes #2, Allen goes #3. But the results are basically the same.

There seems to be a pretty strong consensus that Sam Darnold is the #1 quarterback this year. There also seems to be a consensus that Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson are #4 and #5, and that Mason Rudolph is a distant #6. The guys in the middle are more of a mystery, and may be dependent on specific teams and what they feel comfortable with. Josh Rosen probably would be #2 in most circumstances. But I think the concerns about his injuries and leadership are legit. I'm starting to believe the chatter around Josh Allen's potential is real, and he may be the #2 on most boards.

I'm saying they have similar "styles" to the way they play the QB position. I'm saying they are strong in most of the same areas. I'm saying they are weak in the same areas. To me, when you compare QBs, those are the places you need to start in. Just because I believe they are very similar DOES NOT mean that I believe Jackson can't become a better NFL player than Taylor. To look at the opposite end of the spectrum, you have a player like Josh Rosen. His strengths are accuracy, timing, anticipation and progressing through his leads. But the guy is very immobile and is strictly a pocket passer. His arm and athletic talent is very average. In my opinion, he is going to be more similar to guys like Tom Brady or Matt Ryan. I'm not trying to say his ceiling/floor will be anything close to those guys. I'm saying their styles, strengths and weaknesses are similar. Even if people HATE the Taylor comparison, they have to admit that coaches would be wasting Lamar Jackson's talent by putting him into a traditional pocket-passer role. He will be better when his mobility is taken advantage of. I have no idea what Brian Daboll has in mind for this offense. But I know that our Head Coach allowed Daboll's predecessor to force players into roles that didn't fit player strengths. And most OCs in this league are going to have the same mentality. If we are drafting a franchise QB for the long-haul, I would prefer to have a traditional pocket passer, who relies more on accuracy/timing/anticipation than athletic ability.

Oh please. There is nothing "lazy" about comparing Lamar Jackson to Tyrod Taylor. In today's NFL, I can't think of another quarterback he is more similar to. They are virtually identical in size. Taylor is 6'1, 215 lbs. Jackson is 6'2, 216 lbs. Both are excellent runners. Both are very athletic. Both are very fast. Both are very elusive. Despite being mobile, both have questionable pocket presence and struggle keeping their eyes downfield when rushed. Neither does a great job of going through multiple progressions and making timing/anticipatory throws. Both have strong arms. But both have issues with accuracy. Yes, I realize we have a new OC. And I don't care. I don't want to deal with ANOTHER quarterback that needs to have an offense specifically designed around his "special" talents. Even if Brian Daboll caters his system to Lamar Jackson, then what about the next guy? And what about the guy after that? Virtually all of the coordinators in this league know how to use a pocket passer, and prefer pocket passers. The few guys who can (and are willing to) change are hard to find. Actually, I've seen Lamar Jackson play quite a bit. If his style of play, strengths and weaknesses are not similar to Tyrod Taylor's, please explain how they are SO different. Saying Taylor is less than 2 tenths of a second slower in his (unofficial) 40 time is not a great example.

My guy is Sam Darnold. I think he's going to be a star in this league. And I'm doing whatever I can to move up and get him. If the Browns aren't biting, my backup plan is Josh Rosen. I also really like him, but have some concerns about injuries. I'm not a huge fan of the other guys. Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. I think all of them are ideally 2nd Round prospects. However, if I've totally struck out with my Top 2 guys, then I'm crossing my fingers and hoping one of those guys drops to me at #12. As an absolute last resort, I'm doing what I can to trade back down. Pickup extra picks in future drafts, fill-in the roster elsewhere and instruct Sean McDermott to tank until we are in good draft position in a good QB draft.

From what I can tell, Lamar Jackson has a stronger arm. He is also willing to take more chances with the ball, where Tyrod Taylor was very conservative and only throws when a guy was wide open. Jackson may appear faster and more elusive against college competition, but it's hard to say if he will be better in that area against NFL defenses. Taylor is probably most mobile QB in the league currently. Overall, their styles are very similar. Does this mean that Jackson will be a Taylor clone? Absolutely not. Does this mean that Jackson will never be better than Taylor? Absolutely not. But I absolutely DO believe that style will play a factor (and should play a factor) in who we draft. I realize that we just hired a new offensive coordinator. But if our coaching staff was unwilling to adapt to Taylor's unique talents, and instead decided to force him into being a typical pocket passer - then why does anyone think they would adapt to Jackson's unique style? Guys like Taylor and Jackson need the freedom to use their legs. They need to be used on designed roll-outs. They need to have read-option incorporated. They need to have designed runs. Our coaching staff already has a history of being unwilling to do this.

The only guy I can't see the Bills being interested in is Lamar Jackson. His game is almost identical to Tyrod Taylor's. He's definitely got a stronger arm, and is slower as a runner. But their styles are the same. Jackson's abilities will be enhanced by a creative Offensive Coordinator, who is willing to incorporate lots of roll-outs, the occasional read-option and some designed QB runs. That was everything we tried to move away from last year.

Unfortunately, I think the Bills are "stuck" in a bad place right now. And nobody is going to walk away happy. I truly believe Beane had his eyes on 1-2 specific guys, and was hoping to work his way into position on Draft Day. The Cordy Glenn trade was the last step before making his final move. All it would have taken was the Browns or Giants to take a non-QB, and then they could pull the trigger with the Colts for #3. Boom. We have our guy. Point blank, the Jets gave up more than we could (or would be willing to) offer. They went way over the draft value chart, and the Colts lost nothing by moving down 3 spots. Beane can put on his poker-face and pretend this wasn't a disappointment for him. He can pretend we are happy in our current draft position, and play it cool. But the Jets ruined our plan. A plan that was 11 months in the making. Now, I'm not trying to say Beane was stupid. If he only really likes 2 quarterbacks, I can understand him being reluctant to "overpay" for the #3 pick, when the draft is still 6 weeks away. That could have been an utter disaster on Draft Day, if someone figured out how to trade ahead of us. The wisest plan was to have a tentative deal in place with the Colts, but wait until the pick was on the clock. The problem is... even being wise could ultimately leave us empty-handed on Draft Day. The Browns may have flirted with the idea of taking Saquan Barkley at #1 and taking their QB at #4. But the Jets move has really forced their hand. And things are becoming pretty clear that Sam Darnold is the big favorite to be the first pick. No matter what chatter is coming from New York, I can't see a 3-13 team with a 37-year-old QB passing on that position when drafting in the Top 2. The Giants are too smart to believe they can win a Super Bowl with this roster. And they are too smart to telegraph their thinking to the media. There is a reason they weren't willing to trade this pick to the Jets. It has Josh Rosen written all over it. This leaves the Jets with their choice between Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen. And herein lies the problem. Beane can play it calm and cool all he wants. But he KNOWS we can't walk away with NOTHING at quarterback. Ultimately, the Bills may be forced to trade away a ton of picks, just to get the 4th, 5th or 6th QB off the board. Not the guy they really want. Not the guy they truly believe in. Just the left-overs. Either that, or we REACH really bad to get a 2nd-3rd tier guy like Mason Rudolph.

So I'm not the only one upset about that...

When I look back at the Buffalo Bills through their 50+ year history, I think this information is eye-opening. We've only taken 3 quarterbacks in the 1st Round during our history (Kelly, Losman, Manuel) and never taken one in the Top 10, despite being there 15-20 times. Two of those QBs were our second pick of the day (Kelly, Losman) and one was after a trade down. We can argue all day about who we "should and shouldn't" have drafted. But I think it shows me a franchise that has always placed "less priority" on the Quarterback position than much of the competition. Buddy Nix is probably a great example. It took him 4 drafts as GM to finally take the chance on a QB. We can say he was "smart" for passing on Jimmy Clausen, Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weeden, etc. But he also passed on Russell Wilson. Was he smart? Or was he just lucky? You can't miss on the chances you don't take. But you can't hit on them either.

In my opinion, the biggest hurdle for Quarterbacks is processing speed. From snap to throw, a QB has roughly 2-3 seconds to process where 11 defenders are going, in relation to his 4/5 receiving options. And once the throw is made, defenders close very, very quickly. Ball placement is vital. Many college offenses limit a QBs receiving reads to 1-2 options on a given play, and you often find receivers running WIDE open.

My analysis on Josh Allen has nothing to do with his completion percentage. The other day, I watched his full-game matchups against Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado State, Utah State and Colorado. So my opinion is based on 5 games, which is roughly half of his 2017 season. No doubt, he occasionally makes really nice throws. And thanks to his arm strength, he absolutely makes passes that some other prospects just can't. But on a consistent basis, his accuracy is just really bad. He is constantly missing easy passes at all levels, including his short/intermediate targets. Good NFL quarterbacks are able to consistently hit moving targets (not stationary) between the waist and head level. If a player has to break stride, jump, dive, reach or stretch out for a pass - it's not a good pass. EJ Manuel sometimes made nice throws too. But his accuracy for an NFL QB was bad. That is what I see with Allen.

I've watched several of his games, and I also think Josh Allen is a long-shot for success in the NFL. Another poster said he "accuracy is overblown." No it's not. It's absolutely terrible, and his passes are all over the place. His pocket presence is also pretty bad. He's very athletic, but when pressure comes, he has no sense for how to get away from it. He plays in an NFL-style system, but doesn't do a good job of moving through his progressions. So it doesn't really matter. The bottom line is... If someone drafts Allen, they are basically starting with an empty shell. All of the physical attributes are there. But he possesses none of the natural instincts of playing the position. You have to fix his mechanics. You have to fix his accuracy. You have to fix his pocket presence. You have to teach him playbooks and how to read a defense. This is a long-term project.

I have a really tough time believing the Giants will be passing on a QB. This team was 3-13 last year. Yet people think are trying to "win now." Their roster isn't remotely close to Super Bowl level. Eli Manning is 37 years old. He played poorly in 2016 and then played even worse last year. He's done. The Giants are telling everyone one thing, but they are in prime position to take their QB of the future. And they know it.

At this point, I've done my most film review on Sam Darnold. He reminds me of Brett Favre with his style of play. Darnold is a gunslinger, always looking to push the ball downfield. You almost never see him settling for check-downs. This can be both good and bad, because he also forces things to heavy coverage. This was Favre's style exactly. I also see similarities in the way they move around the pocket, and in their unconventional mechanics when throwing. How anyone can see noodle-arm Chad Pennington or check-down king Sam Bradford when watching Darnold is a complete mystery to me.

Some of the top guys in this draft class (Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen in my opinion) have just as much potential as Wentz did. And Wentz wasn't the "clear cut best" QB of that class, which should be obvious because the Rams took Goff first. The ability of a coaching staff to "develop" a Quarterback is overrated. Coaches can only work with the talent they are given. We always hear about the Bills failing to develop quarterbacks like JP Losman and EJ Manuel. But neither of those guys did squat in the NFL after going to other coaching staffs either. It wasn't the coaches, it was the player.

My brother is an Eagles fan. For years, he felt the same way as many people on this board. He didn't want to see his team "overdraft" players, and was always worried about getting value from his picks. He didn't believe a Quarterback could succeed without a fantastic O-Line in front of him, a great running game and receiving weapons all over the field. So the best plan was always kicking the can down the road, until the rest of the roster was set. Being a big NCAA fan, every QB prospect that popped up was also loaded with flaws. There was always a better option "next year." He just about lost his mind when the Eagles MORTGAGED THEIR FUTURE to move up for Carson Wentz. He was depressed and wondered how a rookie QB could ever succeed with the "crappy roster" and "bad defense" around him. Wentz wasn't even half-way through his rookie season before my brother completely changed his tune. He told me that he could IMMEDIATELY see the difference in what Wentz brought to the table, even as a raw/inexperienced player. Keep in mind that my brother watched Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb for years. And when Nick Foles was playing fantastic, my brother was always convinced he was a "system quarterback." But in less than 8 games, he immediately knew that Wentz was going to transform their franchise. And only a year later, the Eagles were hoisting their first Lombardi trophy.

No, just the vast majority of the time.

And the hits from that same time period include: Eli Manning - 2 Super Bowl rings Ben Roethlisberger - 2 Super Bowl rings Aaron Rodgers - 1 Super Bowl ring Joe Flacco - 1 Super Bowl ring Carson Wentz - 1 Super Bowl ring Not to mention guys like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton, who got their teams very close to winning a championship. If you want to succeed, you can't be afraid of failing. I would rather swing for the fences and strikeout, as opposed to playing it safe and stockpiling talent at other positions.

At least they took the chance. The Bills also really needed a wide receiver that year. They could have passed on EJ Manuel, then drafted a WR at #16 like DeAndre Hopkins. Instead of a total bust at QB, we could have gotten a top-notch Pro-Bowl receiver. How many Super Bowls do you think the Bills would have won with Hopkins instead of Manuel? How much earlier would we have ended the streak with Hopkins instead of Manuel? How many times would we have won the AFC East instead of New England, if we had Hopkins instead of Manuel? If everyone is honest, they know the answer to all of these questions is ZERO. He would have made no difference. No matter how much we crucify Buddy Nix/Doug Whaley for the failure that was Manuel, the complete and honest truth is... drafting him wasn't what killed the Bills. What killed the Bills was passing on Russell Wilson in the 2012 draft. Our staff admitted they REALLY LIKED Wilson, but were just afraid to overdraft him in the 2nd Round and were afraid to trade up in the 3rd to secure him. Here is the thing. I don't know what the Bills draft board looks like. At this point, I'm hoping that Brandon Beane knows what he's doing. I hope he is a good talent evaluator, and I hope he has a concrete plan to get the QB he thinks has the best chance to be our franchise guy. Because at the end of the day, that's all that matters. Adding another Linebacker, Tackle, Wide Receiver, etc. will not get us the championship trophy we all should be striving for. If he sees "the guy" at #2, and just isn't willing to part with the extra picks... it could end up being the biggest mistake of his career.

Desperation is not always a bad thing. Any front office that isn't "desperate" for a franchise quarterback is foolish and arrogant. In the coming weeks, we'll see if the Bills front office truly has a plan. I really hope they do. Because right now, it looks like they: a) Passed on some good QB prospects in 2017, so they could move up in 2018... b) Traded away talent like Sammy Watkins and Cordy Glenn, so they could move up in 2018... c) Settled for leftovers in Free Agency, because they were confident in their ability to move up in 2018... d) Got jumped by a division rival, and are now on the outside looking in. We've had plenty of "cool and calm" GMs, who refused to make rash decisions. Buddy Nix and Marv Levy were two recent examples. They were willing to just let the draft come to them. And at the end of the day, we were left with nothing at the most important position in the NFL.

The thing to remember when evaluating prospects... none of them are a finished product and all of them are going to have flaws. The question is, what flaws are going to be the easiest to correct and which ones are going to be more difficult? A great example is Sam Darnold. In my opinion, Darnold is a fantastic prospect and checks every box that you are looking for in an NFL quarterback. His big weakness is poor decision-making. That's because he's a gunslinger at heart, and constantly forces throws into heavy coverage. At the NFL, this will equal lots of turnovers if not corrected. But Darnold also shows great ability to quickly scan through his progressions and make fast/accurate throws. Which means that a good coaching staff should have an easier time teaching him to avoid the really bad decisions. Compare that to a prospect like Josh Allen. Allen has all the physical tools in the world. But his passes are wildly inaccurate. And despite having great mobility, Allen also has terrible pocket presence and lacks a feel for the pass rush. When pressure hits, his composure totally breaks down. The only way Allen becomes a successful QB at the next level is by having his game completely remade, from the ground-up. That's a pretty tall order.

Out of the five, history says Baker Mayfield. When players fall farther than expected, it's usually because of undesirable physical traits. With Quarterbacks, that usually means height and size. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if all are gone before #12.

It's not good when a prospect compares to Tom Brady. The reason Brady was a 6th Round Pick was because there was literally nothing special about him in college. He wasn't athletic. He didn't have a strong arm. He had a skinny frame. He only showed moderate accuracy and decent ability to read defenses. He was never dominant and spent most of his time in school on the bench. Brady became great because he drastically improved every single aspect of his game. He didn't succeed despite having average accuracy. He succeeded by becoming one of the most accurate QBs to ever play. Most prospects only make moderate improvements once they hit the pros... if they manage to make them at all. Most prospects are like EJ Manuel. The guy he was at Florida State was the guy we saw during his career in Buffalo.