mjt328

We are starting to see Tom Brady show his age, and his passing ability is clearly trending down. Assuming this isn't injury related, age is something a player can't just work around. He's going to get worse, not better. Consider this. Brady was not a factor in the Patriots beating the Bills in either game this year. We lost the first game because of Derek Anderson sucking, and the second game because of our run defense.

- He was very slow reading a defense and checked-down way too often - His way of avoiding the pass rush was doing a backwards spin move, which usually resulted in an extra 5-10 yards lost on the sack - His throwing mechanics were awful, resulting in terrible accuracy - His play resulted in way too many turnovers, both with interceptions and fumbles Honestly, there was nothing about EJ Manuel that ever impressed me. He had a few OK games during first month of his rookie year, but then it was all downhill after that point. You would get a decent throw occasionally (maybe every 2-3 games), surrounded by the unending 4-yard passes on 3rd and long, the high misfires over the middle almost getting our receivers injured, and his pathetic/failed attempts to avoid pass rushers. He had a strong running game to support him. He had good wide receivers. He had a decent O-Line. But he was always the weakest link, dragging an otherwise playoff-caliber team down. I don't think anything "went wrong" with Manuel. Teams figured out pretty quickly what he struggled with the most (there were a lot of things), and he never improved his game. He never got better at reading defenses, never got better with his mechanics/accuracy and always panicked under pressure. Although I do agree that our coaching staff gave up too quickly (considering he was a 1st Round Pick, only a month into his second season), time eventually proved them right. EJ has gotten opportunities and failed to do anything with them. Even if there are some similar rookie stats between Manuel and Josh Allen, the comparisons pretty much stop there. The difference between the two guys is like night and day. Where Manuel never really progressed after his senior year at Florida State, you can easily see a trend of improvement with Allen in all aspects of his game (mechanics, pocket presence, accuracy, etc.). Where Manuel had good surrounding talent, Allen is pretty much carrying the offense by himself.

Tremaine Edmunds was dreadful today (as was the D-Line and his partner Corey Thompson). But as usual, we have those who want to turn this game observation into a total overblown overreaction. I feel like I say this 150 times every season about first year players, but Edmunds is a R-O-O-K-I-E. The idea that MLBs always play great immediately is garbage. The idea he can't improve his instincts is garbage. The idea that he can't bulk up, get stronger and get better at shedding blocks is garbage. Will he? I don't know. But neither does anyone else.

Solid move. We've only seen Matt Barkley in this offense once, but that's more than any other backup we can find on the market (other than Taylor and Peterman). And his performance in that game was better than anyone could possibly have expected.

The best way to build a roster is through the draft, and then using free agency to just fill in the gaps. And the best way to draft is to go with the "Best Player Available" - rather than pass guys over or reach too early for prospects at position of need. If you consider the size of an NFL roster, average contract lengths and resources available - a GM can only realistically address about 25% of a roster in a single year. Assuming you count the 2017 offseason (which Sean McDermott basically ran), this regime has only been able to "fix" about half of the roster so far. I think Brandon Beane definitely understands this concept. The problem is, the 50% of the roster he's managed to address so far is almost exclusively on the defensive side of the ball. If he digs in his heels and stubbornly refuses to go anywhere but offense, he's more likely to make bad decisions in the draft. But if he doesn't make a point to target the weak spots on the roster, he will be pushing this rebuild into another season before we can get competitive. The key to this offseason is being aggressive (and hopefully successful) in addressing most of our needs in Free Agency. Offensive Tackle is a must. Center is a must. At least one Guard spot is a must. Wide Receiver is a must. Running Back, Tight End and Cornerback are pretty close to must-needs. It's a pretty tall order for Beane. But the more spots he fills before the draft, the more flexible we are to get the best player when our picks are on the clock.

Great O-Lines don't last long, mostly because teams don't prioritize drafting that position high or keeping those players in free agency. There is a lot of pressure to draft/keep the STAR running backs and receivers, when it's usually much smarter to spend that money on the O-Line. You watch what happens if Beane/McDermott focus on repairing the O-Line first this offseason, and don't go after a #1 receiver. Fans are going to pitch a fit.

Not sure how anyone could say the O-Line is "slowly coming together"... The only guy I would say is a guarantee to return to the starting lineup in 2019 is Dion Dawkins, and many are advocating for a position change due to his struggles this season. I know there are hopes Wyatt Teller becomes something someday, but he's not shown enough yet to feel confident with him going into the offseason. We have enough resources to overhaul this group in the offseason, and I hope that is the plan.

It goes to show... style does not matter. All that matters is production and wins. The NFL has success stories with downfield gunslingers and efficient guys who pick defenses apart with the short-game. There are success stories with immobile pocket passers and mobile guys who make plays outside the hash marks.

Agree 100%. The most important position is Quarterback. But having a good O-Line will make both the running game and passing game better - and can help avoid injuries to that franchise QB.

He is not wrong. Josh Allen is definitely progressing as a passer. But he's not there yet. If I was a defensive coordinator facing him on Sunday, my strategy would be to keep him in the pocket and limit the damage he can do on the ground. At this point, he's less dangerous with his arm than with his legs, and more prone to mistakes/turnovers. Just like the blueprint to "beat" Tom Brady has always been to get pressure up the middle from the front 4, then play strong press coverage on the back-end. That doesn't mean that every team trying to employ this strategy will be successful against the Patriots. It just means that you have a better chance playing this way, than with blitzing and playing a soft zone.

I'm not really talking about short "timing" throws like slants, screens, curls and picks. I'm talking more about the easy check-downs, like a dump-off to the running back when the initial downfield reads are covered. You know... the Trent Edwards/EJ Manual type throws don't require a ton of skill or accuracy. Those are the types of passes that guys like Sam Darnold are living off right now. Watch a Jets game, and check-down throws are easily accounting for at least 75-80% of his completions. But watch a Bills game, and you aren't seeing the check-downs from Allen at all. His only short throws are designed screens and quick-hitters behind the line of scrimmage (usually to McKenzie).

One of the things I notice about Josh Allen's development (especially compared to other rookie QBs) is the lack of check-down and short passes in our offense. The vast majority of his throws are 10-15+ yards downfield. This is a significant factor in his "accuracy and completion percentage problems" which Allen's detractors are not considering. Part of this may be due to Allen having a "gunslinger mentality" and always going for the big play. But I also notice that because of the offensive line problems, our RBs and TEs are often forced to stay and provide extra blocking help. Which means they can't slip out for a quick check-down. Leaving most of Allen's options on farther downfield routes. When you factor in the ridiculously poor blocking, the lack of easy throws available, the multitude of dropped passes by his receivers and the huge learning curve in going from Wyoming to the NFL - an observer can't help but realize the trial-by-fire that Allen has been dropped into. It's hard to imagine him playing in a tougher situation at any point in the future.

I realize that both units have struggled badly the last 2 years. I'm just not convinced that coaching is the problem. Last year, pretty much everyone knew the O-Line was going to take a step-backwards immediately after word broke that Castillo was hired. Not because he was a historically bad coach. But because he ran a zone blocking scheme which didn't fit the skills of our players. We knew it was going to be even worse this year, since we lost our three best lineman in the offseason (Wood, Incognito and Glenn) and did absolutely nothing to replace them. I'll be honest, and say I really don't know what is going on with special teams. They have been a disaster everywhere. But why is it automatically Crossman's fault when we have a bad punt, a missed field goal or a block-in-the-back penalty?

3000 yard seasons were VERY rare until the late 70s and early 80s. Until about 10 years ago, they were pretty much exclusive to the NFL's top passers. Today, hitting the 3000 yard mark is standard for anyone who plays a full 16-game schedule. Considering the Bills have only had one-true franchise QB in the last 40 years (Jim Kelly who played during the 80s and 90s), it shouldn't be surprising that we are way behind the curve. Guys like Drew Brees and Tom Brady have played their entire careers during the pass-happy years.

He's not wrong. The Bills D-Line is full of good/solid players, but nobody I would consider overly impressive. Especially with Kyle Williams well past his prime. That doesn't mean the Bills have a bad D-Line, or that it's a problem area.

None of the above. This team is starting to move in the right direction, and I believe we need some continuity. Coaches are an easy scapegoat, but they need the right talent to be successful. I know that Danny Crossman and Juan Castillo will be popular selections. But we are talking about guys who have been NFL coaches for over 15 years. I'm not sure they are the problem.

I've been following the draft process for years. I find that media experts, Internet sites and general fans seem to rank draft prospects based almost entirely on college stats, game film and highlights. Basically, they emphasize how good a player is right now, and say that's how good he will always be. NFL scouts and general managers certainly consider a prospect's college performance, but also do their best to factor in physical/mental potential and off-the-field intangibles. They are trying to figure out how a good a player is going to be, if he can be developed properly. That's why everyone on TV loved Baker Mayfield leading up to the draft process, but hated Josh Allen. Most were shocked when they started realizing that most NFL teams saw Allen as a Top 10 pick. It wasn't anything personal against Allen or the Bills. They just didn't see what the scouts saw, and were going to bash whatever team decided to pick him that high. You can see this process already working its way through the 2019 draft class. A great example is Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Early in the season, the media was gushing over him as possibly the #1 pick in the draft. And no doubt, the guy has been dominant during his college career. But word is starting to leak about what NFL scouts think, and there are serious concerns about his size. It's very likely that Oliver drops out of the Top 10 by the spring.

Free agents are almost always going to be overpaid. And it's OK to have a few overpaid guys on the roster. He's making $10 million per year, but contributing at a maybe a $7 million level. I would rather have a player like that (who is at least helping us win) than a guy like Russell Bodine who is making $2-3 million and is a major liability.

The average fan has always gone of stats to determine if a player is good. Now, the go off rating sites like Pro Football Focus. Players like Star Lotulelei will never get much credit with either. His job in this defense is to clog running lanes and tie-up blockers. He will almost never get to the quarterback for a sack, won't make too many tackles and doesn't get a ton of penetration. To the average person watching on film, it doesn't look like he's doing much. It looks like he's at a stalemate with blockers. But he's the one keeping linemen from getting their hands on Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, making it easier for them to stop the ball carrier.

Running Backs are never worth taking that high. Maybe 15-20 years ago. But not today. They don't have a big enough impact and their lifespans are too short. Now... It could still end up working well for the Giants. Early mocks have up to 4 quarterbacks being taken in the 1st Round (Herbert, Haskins, Lock and Grier), and the only real competition the Giants have right now in getting the top QB is in the Jaguars. Of course, a lot could happen between now and then. It's possible Herbert and/or Haskins return to school. It's possible the Raiders decide to move on from Derek Carr, in which case they immediately need a quarterback. The Broncos and Buccaneers could still end up drafting higher than the Giants, and may be interested in drafting a rookie. Even the Redskins could end up in the mix, with the outlook for Alex Smith looking bad. There also may be some "decent" veteran QBs available on the market this year, or at least guys teams would be willing to grab as a starter. Teddy Bridgewater. Nick Foles. Joe Flacco. Jameis Winston. Derek Carr. Eli Manning. Ryan Fitzpatrick. This could really create a situation of musical chairs with the QB-needy teams.

I also agree that Quincy Enunwa would be a good WR addition, along with the other suggestions of Tyrell Williams or Chris Conley. They could also go with a sure-handed veteran slot receiver like Randall Cobb or Cole Beasley. None of these guys are flashy, but they would make our receiving corps better. The same names seem to be coming up on the O-Line, and I agree that all would help. Matt Paradis would be fantastic. I see a lot of people pushing for Roger Saffold and Daryl Williams (another Panthers connection). OL is my biggest concern, since we need SO MANY bodies. One of my top targets would be Jay Ajayi. Coming off a knee injury, he may come at a decent price. He's still young and few teams know what he can do more than Buffalo.

I don't see a lot of big names (at least with our positions of greatest need), but throwing out stupid money in the first days of Free Agency is rarely the best way to go anyway. Even with a large amount of cap space, I still want to see our front office make smart decisions and get good value on the players they sign. Help will be there. Maybe we won't be adding a bunch of Pro-Bowl players. But there will be upgrades available on the market. It's all about identifying the guys who fit our system, approaching them quickly with a good offer, and hoping you can convince them Buffalo is where they want to be. Teams with solid starters/depth across the board usually have more success than teams with 3-4 highly-paid superstars and holes all over the place. By my count, the Bills have 8 glaring holes going into 2019 and about $90 million in cap space. Wide Receiver, Running Back, both Guard spots, Center, Right Tackle, Tight End and Cornerback. If we focus on solid starting guys in the $5-10 million range, we should be able to address the majority of those spots in Free Agency.

The problem is, Allen is taking his biggest hits when in the pocket. On his runs, he's mostly getting out of bounds or sliding.

When judging a draft pick, I think it's fair to look at the player who was selected -- as well as any other players who could have been selected instead. It's also fair to criticize a GM for trading up, if it's eventually shown the move was not necessary. However, it's not fair to judge any player so early into his career. Whether good or bad. Let's see how Tremaine Edmunds stacks up on this list 3-4 years down the road.

It's a pretty weak group of Wide Receivers in free agency this year. All I see is a bunch of aging vets, question marks and guys suited to be #2 targets. A good GM should be able to find some decent help and depth, but I don't see anybody capable of being a team's elite #1 receiver (outside of maybe Josh Gordon, and we all know how that could end up). This particular WR draft class is considered pretty "deep" on Day 2. But it doesn't have a clear-cut/can't-miss elite prospect at the very top. It's very possible that someone eventually emerges as a #1 receiver, but it may take some time, development and patience. It will be another test of Brandon Beane and the scouts to pick out the right guy from the bunch, and try to land him in the 2nd or early 3rd Round. Bottom line, the only way I see Buffalo entering Week 1 of the 2019 season with an elite WR (that isn't going to take 1-2 years to develop) is through a trade. There have been rumblings about Julio Jones, AJ Green and Antonio Brown. So maybe we decide to go that direction.